@phdthesis{Wunderling2021,
  author    = {Wunderling, Nico},
  title     = {Nichtlineare Dynamiken und Interaktionen von Kippelementen im Erdsystem},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-52514},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525140},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {ix, 303},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {With ongoing anthropogenic global warming, some of the most vulnerable components of the Earth system might become unstable and undergo a critical transition. These subsystems are the so-called tipping elements. They are believed to exhibit threshold behaviour and would, if triggered, result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. Furthermore, it has been shown that climate tipping elements are not isolated entities, but interact across the entire Earth system. Therefore, this thesis aims at mapping out the potential for tipping events and feedbacks in the Earth system mainly by the use of complex dynamical systems and network science approaches, but partially also by more detailed process-based models of the Earth system. In the first part of this thesis, the theoretical foundations are laid by the investigation of networks of interacting tipping elements. For this purpose, the conditions for the emergence of global cascades are analysed against the structure of paradigmatic network types such as Erd{\"o}s-R{\´e}nyi, Barab{\´a}si-Albert, Watts-Strogatz and explicitly spatially embedded networks. Furthermore, micro-scale structures are detected that are decisive for the transition of local to global cascades. These so-called motifs link the micro- to the macro-scale in the network of tipping elements. Alongside a model description paper, all these results are entered into the Python software package PyCascades, which is publicly available on github. In the second part of this dissertation, the tipping element framework is first applied to components of the Earth system such as the cryosphere and to parts of the biosphere. Afterwards it is applied to a set of interacting climate tipping elements on a global scale. Using the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) CLIMBER-2, the temperature feedbacks are quantified, which would arise if some of the large cryosphere elements disintegrate over a long span of time. The cryosphere components that are investigated are the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheets. The committed temperature increase, in case the ice masses disintegrate, is on the order of an additional half a degree on a global average (0.39-0.46 °C), while local to regional additional temperature increases can exceed 5 °C. This means that, once tipping has begun, additional reinforcing feedbacks are able to increase global warming and with that the risk of further tipping events. This is also the case in the Amazon rainforest, whose parts are dependent on each other via the so-called moisture-recycling feedback. In this thesis, the importance of drought-induced tipping events in the Amazon rainforest is investigated in detail. Despite the Amazon rainforest is assumed to be adapted to past environmental conditions, it is found that tipping events sharply increase if the drought conditions become too intense in a too short amount of time, outpacing the adaptive capacity of the Amazon rainforest. In these cases, the frequency of tipping cascades also increases to 50\% (or above) of all tipping events. In the model that was developed in this study, the southeastern region of the Amazon basin is hit hardest by the simulated drought patterns. This is also the region that already nowadays suffers a lot from extensive human-induced changes due to large-scale deforestation, cattle ranching or infrastructure projects. Moreover, on the larger Earth system wide scale, a network of conceptualised climate tipping elements is constructed in this dissertation making use of a large literature review, expert knowledge and topological properties of the tipping elements. In global warming scenarios, tipping cascades are detected even under modest scenarios of climate change, limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In addition, the structural roles of the climate tipping elements in the network are revealed. While the large ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are the initiators of tipping cascades, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) acts as the transmitter of cascades. Furthermore, in our conceptual climate tipping element model, it is found that the ice sheets are of particular importance for the stability of the entire system of investigated climate tipping elements. In the last part of this thesis, the results from the temperature feedback study with the EMIC CLIMBER-2 are combined with the conceptual model of climate tipping elements. There, it is observed that the likelihood of further tipping events slightly increases due to the temperature feedbacks even if no further CO\$_2\$ would be added to the atmosphere. Although the developed network model is of conceptual nature, it is possible with this work for the first time to quantify the risk of tipping events between interacting components of the Earth system under global warming scenarios, by allowing for dynamic temperature feedbacks at the same time.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{CiemerRehmKurthsetal.2020,
  author    = {Ciemer, Catrin and Rehm, Lars and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Donner, Reik Volker and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Boers, Niklas},
  title     = {An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {9},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-52586},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525863},
  pages     = {12},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CiemerRehmKurthsetal.2020,
  author    = {Ciemer, Catrin and Rehm, Lars and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen and Donner, Reik Volker and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Boers, Niklas},
  title     = {An early-warning indicator for Amazon droughts exclusively based on tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures},
  series = {Environmental Research Letters},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Environmental Research Letters},
  number    = {9},
  publisher = {IOP - Institute of Physics Publishing},
  address   = {Bristol},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DombrowskiErmakovaFabian2019,
  author    = {Dombrowski, Sebastian and Ermakova, Tatiana and Fabian, Benjamin},
  title     = {Graph-based analysis of cloud connectivity at the internet protocol level},
  series = {International Journal of Communication Networks and Distributed Systems (IJCNDS)},
  volume    = {23},
  journal   = {International Journal of Communication Networks and Distributed Systems (IJCNDS)},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Inderscience Enterprises Ltd},
  address   = {Geneva},
  issn      = {1754-3916},
  doi       = {10.1504/IJCNDS.2019.100644},
  pages     = {117 -- 142},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Internet connectivity of cloud services is of exceptional importance for both their providers and consumers. This article demonstrates the outlines of a method for measuring cloud-service connectivity at the internet protocol level from a client's perspective. For this, we actively collect connectivity data via traceroute measurements from PlanetLab to several major cloud services. Furthermore, we construct graph models from the collected data, and analyse the connectivity of the services based on important graph-based measures. Then, random and targeted node removal attacks are simulated, and the corresponding vulnerability of cloud services is evaluated. Our results indicate that cloud service hosts are, on average, much better connected than average hosts. However, when interconnecting nodes are removed in a targeted manner, cloud connectivity is dramatically reduced.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Oeztuerk2018,
  author    = {{\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur},
  title     = {Learning more to predict landslides},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42643},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-426439},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxi, 104},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Landslides are frequent natural hazards in rugged terrain, when the resisting frictional force of the surface of rupture yields to the gravitational force. These forces are functions of geological and morphological factors, such as angle of internal friction, local slope gradient or curvature, which remain static over hundreds of years; whereas more dynamic triggering events, such as rainfall and earthquakes, compromise the force balance by temporarily reducing resisting forces or adding transient loads. This thesis investigates landslide distribution and orientation due to landslide triggers (e.g. rainfall) at different scales (6-4∙10^5 km^2) and aims to link rainfall movement with the landslide distribution. It additionally explores the local impacts of the extreme rainstorms on landsliding and the role of precursory stability conditions that could be induced by an earlier trigger, such as an earthquake. Extreme rainfall is a common landslide trigger. Although several studies assessed rainfall intensity and duration to study the distribution of thus triggered landslides, only a few case studies quantified spatial rainfall patterns (i.e. orographic effect). Quantifying the regional trajectories of extreme rainfall could aid predicting landslide prone regions in Japan. To this end, I combined a non-linear correlation metric, namely event synchronization, and radial statistics to assess the general pattern of extreme rainfall tracks over distances of hundreds of kilometers using satellite based rainfall estimates. Results showed that, although the increase in rainfall intensity and duration positively correlates with landslide occurrence, the trajectories of typhoons and frontal storms were insufficient to explain landslide distribution in Japan. Extreme rainfall trajectories inclined northwestwards and were concentrated along some certain locations, such as coastlines of southern Japan, which was unnoticed in the landslide distribution of about 5000 rainfall-triggered landslides. These landslides seemed to respond to the mean annual rainfall rates. Above mentioned findings suggest further investigation on a more local scale to better understand the mechanistic response of landscape to extreme rainfall in terms of landslides. On May 2016 intense rainfall struck southern Germany triggering high waters and landslides. The highest damage was reported at the Braunsbach, which is located on the tributary-mouth fan formed by the Orlacher Bach. Orlacher Bach is a ~3 km long creek that drains a catchment of about ~6 km^2. I visited this catchment in June 2016 and mapped 48 landslides along the creek. Such high landslide activity was not reported in the nearby catchments within ~3300 km^2, despite similar rainfall intensity and duration based on weather radar estimates. My hypothesis was that several landslides were triggered by rainfall-triggered flash floods that undercut hillslope toes along the Orlacher Bach. I found that morphometric features such as slope and curvature play an important role in landslide distribution on this micro scale study site (<10 km^2). In addition, the high number of landslides along the Orlacher Bach could also be boosted by accumulated damages on hillslopes due karst weathering over longer time scales. Precursory damages on hillslopes could also be induced by past triggering events that effect landscape evolution, but this interaction is hard to assess independently from the latest trigger. For example, an earthquake might influence the evolution of a landscape decades long, besides its direct impacts, such as landslides that follow the earthquake. Here I studied the consequences of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake (MW 7.1) that triggered some 1500 landslides in an area of ~4000 km^2 in central Kyushu, Japan. Topography, i.e. local slope and curvature, both amplified and attenuated seismic waves, thus controlling the failure mechanism of those landslides (e.g. progressive). I found that topography fails in explaining the distribution and the preferred orientation of the landslides after the earthquake; instead the landslides were concentrated around the northeast of the rupture area and faced mostly normal to the rupture plane. This preferred location of the landslides was dominated mainly by the directivity effect of the strike-slip earthquake, which is the propagation of wave energy along the fault in the rupture direction; whereas amplitude variations of the seismic radiation altered the preferred orientation. I suspect that the earthquake directivity and the asymmetry of seismic radiation damaged hillslopes at those preferred locations increasing landslide susceptibility. Hence a future weak triggering event, e.g. scattered rainfall, could further trigger landslides at those damaged hillslopes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{FabianBaumannEhlertetal.2017,
  author    = {Fabian, Benjamin and Baumann, Annika and Ehlert, Mathias and Ververis, Vasilis and Ermakova, Tatiana},
  title     = {CORIA - Analyzing internet connectivity risks using network graphs},
  series = {2017 IEEE International Conference on Communications (ICC)},
  journal   = {2017 IEEE International Conference on Communications (ICC)},
  publisher = {IEEE},
  address   = {Piscataway},
  isbn      = {978-1-4673-8999-0},
  issn      = {1550-3607},
  doi       = {10.1109/ICC.2017.7996828},
  pages     = {6},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {The Internet can be considered as the most important infrastructure for modern society and businesses. A loss of Internet connectivity has strong negative financial impacts for businesses and economies. Therefore, assessing Internet connectivity, in particular beyond their own premises and area of direct control, is of growing importance in the face of potential failures, accidents, and malicious attacks. This paper presents CORIA, a software framework for an easy analysis of connectivity risks based on large network graphs. It provides researchers, risk analysts, network managers and security consultants with a tool to assess an organization's connectivity and paths options through the Internet backbone, including a user-friendly and insightful visual representation of results. CORIA is flexibly extensible in terms of novel data sets, graph metrics, and risk scores that enable further use cases. The performance of CORIA is evaluated by several experiments on the Internet graph and further randomly generated networks.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Vlasov2015,
  author    = {Vlasov, Vladimir},
  title     = {Synchronization of oscillatory networks in terms of global variables},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-78182},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {82},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Synchronization of large ensembles of oscillators is an omnipresent phenomenon observed in different fields of science like physics, engineering, life sciences, etc. The most simple setup is that of globally coupled phase oscillators, where all the oscillators contribute to a global field which acts on all oscillators. This formulation of the problem was pioneered by Winfree and Kuramoto. Such a setup gives a possibility for the analysis of these systems in terms of global variables. In this work we describe nontrivial collective dynamics in oscillator populations coupled via mean fields in terms of global variables. We consider problems which cannot be directly reduced to standard Kuramoto and Winfree models. In the first part of the thesis we adopt a method introduced by Watanabe and Strogatz. The main idea is that the system of identical oscillators of particular type can be described by a low-dimensional system of global equations. This approach enables us to perform a complete analytical analysis for a special but vast set of initial conditions. Furthermore, we show how the approach can be expanded for some nonidentical systems. We apply the Watanabe-Strogatz approach to arrays of Josephson junctions and systems of identical phase oscillators with leader-type coupling. In the next parts of the thesis we consider the self-consistent mean-field theory method that can be applied to general nonidentical globally coupled systems of oscillators both with or without noise. For considered systems a regime, where the global field rotates uniformly, is the most important one. With the help of this approach such solutions of the self-consistency equation for an arbitrary distribution of frequencies and coupling parameters can be found analytically in the parametric form, both for noise-free and noisy cases. We apply this method to deterministic Kuramoto-type model with generic coupling and an ensemble of spatially distributed oscillators with leader-type coupling. Furthermore, with the proposed self-consistent approach we fully characterize rotating wave solutions of noisy Kuramoto-type model with generic coupling and an ensemble of noisy oscillators with bi-harmonic coupling. Whenever possible, a complete analysis of global dynamics is performed and compared with direct numerical simulations of large populations.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Malik2011,
  author    = {Malik, Nishant},
  title     = {Extremes in events and dynamics : a nonlinear data analysis perspective on the past and present dynamics of the Indian summer monsoon},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-58016},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {To identify extreme changes in the dynamics of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) in the past, I propose a new approach based on the quantification of fluctuations of a nonlinear similarity measure, to identify regimes of distinct dynamical complexity in short time series. I provide an analytical derivation for the relationship of the new measure with the dynamical invariants such as dimension and Lyapunov exponents of the underlying system. A statistical test is also developed to estimate the significance of the identified transitions. Our method is justified by uncovering bifurcation structures in several paradigmatic models, providing more complex transitions compared with traditional Lyapunov exponents. In a real world situation, we apply the method to identify millennial-scale dynamical transitions in Pleistocene proxy records of the south Asian summer monsoon system. We infer that many of these transitions are induced by the external forcing of solar insolation and are also affected by internal forcing on Monsoonal dynamics, i.e., the glaciation cycles of the Northern Hemisphere and the onset of the tropical Walker circulation. Although this new method has general applicability, it is particularly useful in analysing short palaeo-climate records. Rainfall during the ISM over the Indian subcontinent occurs in form of enormously complex spatiotemporal patterns due to the underlying dynamics of atmospheric circulation and varying topography. I present a detailed analysis of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian peninsular using Event Synchronization (ES), a measure of nonlinear correlation for point processes such as rainfall. First, using hierarchical clustering I identify principle regions where the dynamics of monsoonal rainfall is more coherent or homogenous. I also provide a method to reconstruct the time delay patterns of rain events. Moreover, further analysis is carried out employing the tools of complex network theory. This study provides valuable insights into the spatial organization, scales, and structure of the 90th and 94th percentile rainfall events during the ISM (June to September). I furthermore analyse the influence of different critical synoptic atmospheric systems and the impact of the steep Himalayan topography on rainfall patterns. The presented method not only helps in visualising the structure of the extremeevent rainfall fields, but also identifies the water vapor pathways and decadal-scale moisture sinks over the region. Furthermore a simple scheme based on complex networks is presented to decipher the spatial intricacies and temporal evolution of monsoonal rainfall patterns over the last six decades. Some supplementary results on the evolution of monsoonal rainfall extremes over the last sixty years are also presented.},
  language  = {de}
}
@phdthesis{Wu2010,
  author    = {Wu, Ye},
  title     = {Nonlinear dynamics in complex networks and modeling human dynamics},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-47358},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Durch große Datenmengen k{\"o}nnen die Forscher die Eigenschaften komplexer Systeme untersuchen, z.B. komplexe Netzwerk und die Dynamik des menschlichen Verhaltens. Eine große Anzahl an Systemen werden als große und komplexe Netzwerke dargestellt, z.B. das Internet, Stromnetze, Wirtschaftssysteme. Immer mehr Forscher haben großes Interesse an der Dynamik des komplexen Netzwerks. Diese Arbeit besteht aus den folgenden drei Teilen. Der erste Teil ist ein einfacher dynamischer Optimierungs-Kopplungs-Mechanismus, aber sehr wirksam. Durch den Mechanismus kann synchronisation in komplexen Netzwerken mit und ohne Zeitverz{\"o}gerung realisiert, und die F{\"a}higkeit der Synchronisation von small-world und scale-free Netze verbessert werden. Im zweiten Teil geht um die Verst{\"a}rkung der Robustheit der scale-free Netze im Zusammenhang mit der Gemeinden-Struktur. Einige Reaktionsmuster und topologische Gemeinden sind einheitlich. Die Ergebnisse zeigen einen neuen Aspekt der Beziehung zwischen den Funktionen und der Netzwerk-Topologie von komplexen Netzwerken. Im dritten Teil welche eine wichtige Rolle in komplexen Netzwerken spielt, wird die Verhaltens-Dynamik der menschliche Mitteilung durch Daten- und Modellanalysierung erforscht, dann entsteht ein neues Mitteilungsmodell. Mit Hilfe von einem Interaktion priority-Queue Model kann das neue Modell erkl{\"a}rt werden. Mit Hilfe des Models k{\"o}nnen viele praktische Interaktions-Systeme erkl{\"a}rt werden, z.B. E-Mail und Briefe (oder Post). Mit Hilfe meiner Untersuchung kann man menschliches Verhalten auf der Individuums- und Netzwerkebene neu kennenlernen. Im vierter Teil kann ich nachweisen, dass menschliches Kommentar-Verhalten in on-line Sozialsystemen, eine andere Art der Interaktionsdynamik von Mensch non-Poisson ist und dieses am Modell erkl{\"a}ren. Mit Hilfe der non-Poisson Prozesse kann man das pers{\"o}nliche Anziehungskraft-Modell besser verstehen. Die Ergebnisse sind hilfreich zum Kennenlernen des Musters des menschlichen Verhaltens in on-line Gesellschaften und der Entwicklung von {\"o}ffentlicher Meinung nicht nur in der virtuellen Gesellschaftn sondern auch in der Realgesellschaft. Am Ende geht es um eine Prognose von menschlicher Dynamik und komplexen Netzwerken.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{ZamoraLopez2009,
  author    = {Zamora-L{\´o}pez, Gorka},
  title     = {Linking structure and function of complex cortical networks},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52257},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2009},
  abstract  = {The recent discovery of an intricate and nontrivial interaction topology among the elements of a wide range of natural systems has altered the manner we understand complexity. For example, the axonal fibres transmitting electrical information between cortical regions form a network which is neither regular nor completely random. Their structure seems to follow functional principles to balance between segregation (functional specialisation) and integration. Cortical regions are clustered into modules specialised in processing different kinds of information, e.g. visual or auditory. However, in order to generate a global perception of the real world, the brain needs to integrate the distinct types of information. Where this integration happens, nobody knows. We have performed an extensive and detailed graph theoretical analysis of the cortico-cortical organisation in the brain of cats, trying to relate the individual and collective topological properties of the cortical areas to their function. We conclude that the cortex possesses a very rich communication structure, composed of a mixture of parallel and serial processing paths capable of accommodating dynamical processes with a wide variety of time scales. The communication paths between the sensory systems are not random, but largely mediated by a small set of areas. Far from acting as mere transmitters of information, these central areas are densely connected to each other, strongly indicating their functional role as integrators of the multisensory information. In the quest of uncovering the structure-function relationship of cortical networks, the peculiarities of this network have led us to continuously reconsider the stablished graph measures. For example, a normalised formalism to identify the "functional roles" of vertices in networks with community structure is proposed. The tools developed for this purpose open the door to novel community detection techniques which may also characterise the overlap between modules. The concept of integration has been revisited and adapted to the necessities of the network under study. Additionally, analytical and numerical methods have been introduced to facilitate understanding of the complicated statistical interrelations between the distinct network measures. These methods are helpful to construct new significance tests which may help to discriminate the relevant properties of real networks from side-effects of the evolutionary-growth processes.},
  language  = {en}
}