@article{MacdonaldMerzGuseetal.2022, author = {Macdonald, Elena and Merz, Bruno and Guse, Bj{\"o}rn and Wietzke, Luzie and Ullrich, Sophie and Kemter, Matthias and Ahrens, Bodo and Vorogushyn, Sergiy}, title = {Event and catchment controls of heavy tail behavior of floods}, series = {Water resources research}, volume = {58}, journal = {Water resources research}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0043-1397}, doi = {10.1029/2021WR031260}, pages = {25}, year = {2022}, abstract = {In some catchments, the distribution of annual maximum streamflow shows heavy tail behavior, meaning the occurrence probability of extreme events is higher than if the upper tail decayed exponentially. Neglecting heavy tail behavior can lead to an underestimation of the likelihood of extreme floods and the associated risk. Partly contradictory results regarding the controls of heavy tail behavior exist in the literature and the knowledge is still very dispersed and limited. To better understand the drivers, we analyze the upper tail behavior and its controls for 480 catchments in Germany and Austria over a period of more than 50 years. The catchments span from quickly reacting mountain catchments to large lowland catchments, allowing for general conclusions. We compile a wide range of event and catchment characteristics and investigate their association with an indicator of the tail heaviness of flood distributions, namely the shape parameter of the GEV distribution. Following univariate analyses of these characteristics, along with an evaluation of different aggregations of event characteristics, multiple linear regression models, as well as random forests, are constructed. A novel slope indicator, which represents the relation between the return period of flood peaks and event characteristics, captures the controls of heavy tails best. Variables describing the catchment response are found to dominate the heavy tail behavior, followed by event precipitation, flood seasonality, and catchment size. The pre-event moisture state in a catchment has no relevant impact on the tail heaviness even though it does influence flood magnitudes.}, language = {en} } @article{TolorzaMohrCarretieretal.2019, author = {Tolorza, Violeta and Mohr, Christian Heinrich and Carretier, Sebastien and Serey, Amador and Sepulveda, Sergio A. and Tapia, Joseline and Pinto, Luisa}, title = {Suspended sediments in chilean rivers reveal low postseismic erosion after the maule earthquake (Mw 8.8) during a severe drought}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9003}, doi = {10.1029/2018JF004766}, pages = {1378 -- 1397}, year = {2019}, abstract = {We address the question of whether all large-magnitude earthquakes produce an erosion peak in the subaerial components of fluvial catchments. We evaluate the sediment flux response to the Maule earthquake in the Chilean Andes (Mw 8.8) using daily suspended sediment records from 31 river gauges. The catchments cover drainage areas of 350 to around 10,000 km(2), including a wide range of topographic slopes and vegetation cover of the Andean western flank. We compare the 3- to 8-year postseismic record of sediment flux to each of the following preseismic periods: (1) all preseismic data, (2) a 3-year period prior to the seismic event, and (3) the driest preseismic periods, as drought conditions prevailed in the postseismic period. Following the earthquake, no increases in suspended sediment flux were observed for moderate to high percentiles of the streamflow distribution (mean, median, and >= 75th percentile). However, more than half of the examined stations showed increased sediment flux during baseflow. By using a Random Forest approach, we evaluate the contributions of seismic intensities, peak ground accelerations, co-seismic landslides, hydroclimatic conditions, topography, lithology, and land cover to explain the observed changes in suspended sediment concentration and fluxes. We find that the best predictors are hillslope gradient, low-vegetation cover, and changes in streamflow discharge. This finding suggests a combined first-order control of topography, land cover, and hydrology on the catchment-wide erosion response. We infer a reduced sediment connectivity due to the postseismic drought, which increased the residence time of sediment detached and remobilized following the Maule earthquake.}, language = {en} } @article{MohrCoppusIroumeetal.2013, author = {Mohr, Christian Heinrich and Coppus, Ruben and Iroume, Andres and Huber, Anton and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Runoff generation and soil erosion processes after clear cutting}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface}, volume = {118}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface}, number = {2}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9003}, doi = {10.1002/jgrf.20047}, pages = {814 -- 831}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Timber harvesting by clear cutting is known to impose environmental impacts, including severe disturbance of the soil hydraulic properties which intensify the frequency and magnitude of surface runoff and soil erosion. However, it remains unanswered if harvest areas act as sources or sinks for runoff and soil erosion and whether such behavior operates in a steady state or evolves through time. For this purpose, 92 small-scale rainfall simulations of different intensities were carried out under pine plantation conditions and on two clear-cut harvest areas of different age. Nonparametrical Random Forest statistical models were set up to quantify the impact of environmental variables on the hydrological and erosion response. Regardless of the applied rainfall intensity, runoff always initiated first and yielded most under plantation cover. Counter to expectations, infiltration rates increased after logging activities. Once a threshold rainfall intensity of 20mm/h was exceeded, the younger harvest area started to act as a source for both runoff and erosion after connectivity was established, whereas it remained a sink under lower applied rainfall intensities. The results suggest that the impact of microtopography on surface runoff connectivity and water-repellent properties of the topsoil act as first-order controls for the hydrological and erosion processes in such environments. Fast rainfall-runoff response, sediment-discharge-hystereses, and enhanced postlogging groundwater recharge at catchment scale support our interpretation. At the end, we show the need to account for nonstationary hydrological and erosional behavior of harvest areas, a fact previously unappreciated in predictive models.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Graeff2011, author = {Gr{\"a}ff, Thomas}, title = {Soil moisture dynamics and soil moisture controlled runoff processes at different spatial scales : from observation to modelling}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-54470}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Soil moisture is a key state variable that controls runoff formation, infiltration and partitioning of radiation into latent and sensible heat. However, the experimental characterisation of near surface soil moisture patterns and their controls on runoff formation remains a challenge. This subject was one aspect of the BMBF-funded OPAQUE project (operational discharge and flooding predictions in head catchments). As part of that project the focus of this dissertation is on: (1) testing the methodology and feasibility of the Spatial TDR technology in producing soil moisture profiles along TDR probes, including an inversion technique of the recorded signal in heterogeneous field soils, (2) the analysis of spatial variability and temporal dynamics of soil moisture at the field scale including field experiments and hydrological modelling, (3) the application of models of different complexity for understanding soil moisture dynamics and its importance for runoff generation as well as for improving the prediction of runoff volumes. To fulfil objective 1, several laboratory experiments were conducted to understand the influence of probe rod geometry and heterogeneities in the sampling volume under different wetness conditions. This includes a detailed analysis on how these error sources affect retrieval of soil moisture profiles in soils. Concerning objective 2 a sampling strategy of two TDR clusters installed in the head water of the Wilde Weißeritz catchment (Eastern Ore Mountains, Germany) was used to investigate how well "the catchment state" can be characterised by means of distributed soil moisture data observed at the field scale. A grassland site and a forested site both located on gentle slopes were instrumented with two Spatial TDR clusters that consist of up to 39 TDR probes. Process understanding was gained by modelling the interaction of evapotranspiration and soil moisture with the hydrological process model CATFLOW. A field scale irrigation experiment was carried out to investigate near subsurface processes at the hillslope scale. The interactions of soil moisture and runoff formation were analysed using discharge data from three nested catchments: the Becherbach with a size of 2 km², the Rehefeld catchment (17 km²) and the superordinate Ammelsdorf catchment (49 km²). Statistical analyses including observations of pre-event runoff, soil moisture and different rainfall characteristics were employed to predict stream flow volume. On the different scales a strong correlation between the average soil moisture and the runoff coefficients of rainfall-runoff events could be found, which almost explains equivalent variability as the pre-event runoff. Furthermore, there was a strong correlation between surface soil moisture and subsurface wetness with a hysteretic behaviour between runoff soil moisture. To fulfil objective 3 these findings were used in a generalised linear model (GLM) analysis which combines state variables describing the catchments antecedent wetness and variables describing the meteorological forcing in order to predict event runoff coefficients. GLM results were compared to simulations with the catchment model WaSiM ETH. Hereby were the model results of the GLMs always better than the simulations with WaSiM ETH. The GLM analysis indicated that the proposed sampling strategy of clustering TDR probes in typical functional units is a promising technique to explore soil moisture controls on runoff generation and can be an important link between the scales. Long term monitoring of such sites could yield valuable information for flood warning and forecasting by identifying critical soil moisture conditions for the former and providing a better representation of the initial moisture conditions for the latter.}, language = {en} }