@article{BronstertKneisBogena2009, author = {Bronstert, Axel and Kneis, David and Bogena, Heye R.}, title = {Interactions and feedbacks in hydrological change : relevance and possibilities of modelling}, issn = {1439-1783}, year = {2009}, abstract = {The hydrological cycle is a dynamic system by its nature, but sometimes accelerated through anthropogenic activity. A "hydrological change" (i.e. a water cycle that is significantly changing over a longer period of time) can be very different in character, depending on the specific natural conditions and the underlying spatial and temporal scales. Such changes may affect the availability and quality of water as essential pre-requisites for human development and ecosystem stability. Hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may also be affected, what is also vitally important, because of their profound economic and societal impacts. Anthropogenically induced hydrological change can be attributed to three main external causes: first, the Earth's climate is changing significantly and thus directly affecting the terrestrial hydro-systems via the exchange of energy and heat. The second major issue is the land cover and its management that has been modified fundamentally by conversion of land for agriculture, forestry, and other purposes such as industrialisation and urbanisation. Finally, water resources are being used more than ever for human development, especially for agriculture, industrial activities, and navigation. If the regional terrestrial hydrological cycle is changing and counter-measures are desirable, it is from a scientific perspective mandatory to understand the extent and nature of such changes, and, especially, to identify their possible anthropogenic origin. There are, however, fundamental gaps in our knowledge, in particular about the role of feedbacks between individual processes and compartments of the hydrological cycle or the relevance of the interactions with other sub-systems of our planet, such as the atmosphere or the vegetation. This paper mentions several examples of hydrological change and discusses their identification, interaction processes, and feedback mechanisms, along with modelling issues. The possibilities and limitations of modelling are demonstrated by means of two studies: one from the river-lake system on the Middle-Havel River and one from the catchment of the Wahnbach Reservoir. The applied model systems comprise a series of consecutively coupled individual models (so-called one-way-coupling). Model systems that are able reflect feedback effects (two-way- coupling) are still in the development stage. It became clear that the applied model systems were able to reproduce the observed dynamics of the hydrological cycle and of selected matter fluxes. However, one has to be aware that the simulated time periods and scenarios represent rather moderately transient conditions, what is the justification why the one-way-coupling seems to be applicable. Furthermore, it was shown that the modelling uncertainty is considerably large. Nevertheless, this uncertainty can be distinguished from effects of changed internal systems dynamics or from changed boundary conditions, what is a basis for the usability of such model systems for prognostic purposes.}, language = {en} } @article{BronstertKneisBogena2009, author = {Bronstert, Axel and Kneis, David and Bogena, Heye R.}, title = {Interaktionen und R{\"u}ckkopplungen beim hydrologischen Wandel : Relevanz und M{\"o}glichkeiten der Modellierung}, issn = {1439-1783}, year = {2009}, language = {de} } @article{SchroenKoehliScheiffeleetal.2017, author = {Schroen, Martin and Koehli, Markus and Scheiffele, Lena and Iwema, Joost and Bogena, Heye R. and Lv, Ling and Martini, Edoardo and Baroni, Gabriele and Rosolem, Rafael and Weimar, Jannis and Mai, Juliane and Cuntz, Matthias and Rebmann, Corinna and Oswald, Sascha and Dietrich, Peter and Schmidt, Ulrich and Zacharias, Steffen}, title = {Improving calibration and validation of cosmic-ray neutron sensors in the light of spatial sensitivity}, series = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS}, volume = {21}, journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1027-5606}, doi = {10.5194/hess-21-5009-2017}, pages = {5009 -- 5030}, year = {2017}, abstract = {In the last few years the method of cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) has gained popularity among hydrologists, physicists, and land-surface modelers. The sensor provides continuous soil moisture data, averaged over several hectares and tens of decimeters in depth. However, the signal still may contain unidentified features of hydrological processes, and many calibration datasets are often required in order to find reliable relations between neutron intensity and water dynamics. Recent insights into environmental neutrons accurately described the spatial sensitivity of the sensor and thus allowed one to quantify the contribution of individual sample locations to the CRNS signal. Consequently, data points of calibration and validation datasets are suggested to be averaged using a more physically based weighting approach. In this work, a revised sensitivity function is used to calculate weighted averages of point data. The function is different from the simple exponential convention by the extraordinary sensitivity to the first few meters around the probe, and by dependencies on air pressure, air humidity, soil moisture, and vegetation. The approach is extensively tested at six distinct monitoring sites: two sites with multiple calibration datasets and four sites with continuous time series datasets. In all cases, the revised averaging method improved the performance of the CRNS products. The revised approach further helped to reveal hidden hydrological processes which otherwise remained unexplained in the data or were lost in the process of overcalibration. The presented weighting approach increases the overall accuracy of CRNS products and will have an impact on all their applications in agriculture, hydrology, and modeling.}, language = {en} } @misc{SchroenKoehliScheiffeleetal.2017, author = {Schr{\"o}n, Martin and K{\"o}hli, Markus and Scheiffele, Lena and Iwema, Joost and Bogena, Heye R. and Lv, Ling and Martini, Edoardo and Baroni, Gabriele and Rosolem, Rafael and Weimar, Jannis and Mai, Juliane and Cuntz, Matthias and Rebmann, Corinna and Oswald, Sascha and Dietrich, Peter and Schmidt, Ulrich and Zacharias, Steffen}, title = {Improving calibration and validation of cosmic-ray neutron sensors in the light of spatial sensitivity}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {636}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41913}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419134}, pages = {5009 -- 5030}, year = {2017}, abstract = {In the last few years the method of cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) has gained popularity among hydrologists, physicists, and land-surface modelers. The sensor provides continuous soil moisture data, averaged over several hectares and tens of decimeters in depth. However, the signal still may contain unidentified features of hydrological processes, and many calibration datasets are often required in order to find reliable relations between neutron intensity and water dynamics. Recent insights into environmental neutrons accurately described the spatial sensitivity of the sensor and thus allowed one to quantify the contribution of individual sample locations to the CRNS signal. Consequently, data points of calibration and validation datasets are suggested to be averaged using a more physically based weighting approach. In this work, a revised sensitivity function is used to calculate weighted averages of point data. The function is different from the simple exponential convention by the extraordinary sensitivity to the first few meters around the probe, and by dependencies on air pressure, air humidity, soil moisture, and vegetation. The approach is extensively tested at six distinct monitoring sites: two sites with multiple calibration datasets and four sites with continuous time series datasets. In all cases, the revised averaging method improved the performance of the CRNS products. The revised approach further helped to reveal hidden hydrological processes which otherwise remained unexplained in the data or were lost in the process of overcalibration. The presented weighting approach increases the overall accuracy of CRNS products and will have an impact on all their applications in agriculture, hydrology, and modeling.}, language = {en} }