@misc{LevermannWinkelmann2016,
  author    = {Levermann, Anders and Winkelmann, Ricarda},
  title     = {A simple equation for the melt elevation feedback of ice sheets},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {529},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-40983},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409834},
  pages     = {9},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing mass and has thereby contributed to global sea-level rise. The rate of ice loss is highly relevant for coastal protection worldwide. The ice loss is likely to increase under future warming. Beyond a critical temperature threshold, a meltdown of the Greenland Ice Sheet is induced by the self-enforcing feedback between its lowering surface elevation and its increasing surface mass loss: the more ice that is lost, the lower the ice surface and the warmer the surface air temperature, which fosters further melting and ice loss. The computation of this rate so far relies on complex numerical models which are the appropriate tools for capturing the complexity of the problem. By contrast we aim here at gaining a conceptual understanding by deriving a purposefully simple equation for the self-enforcing feedback which is then used to estimate the melt time for different levels of warming using three observable characteristics of the ice sheet itself and its surroundings. The analysis is purely conceptual in nature. It is missing important processes like ice dynamics for it to be useful for applications to sea-level rise on centennial timescales, but if the volume loss is dominated by the feedback, the resulting logarithmic equation unifies existing numerical simulations and shows that the melt time depends strongly on the level of warming with a critical slow-down near the threshold: the median time to lose 10\% of the present-day ice volume varies between about 3500 years for a temperature level of 0.5 degrees C above the threshold and 500 years for 5 degrees C. Unless future observations show a significantly higher melting sensitivity than currently observed, a complete meltdown is unlikely within the next 2000 years without significant ice-dynamical contributions.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{WaltherGuanterHeimetal.2018,
  author    = {Walther, Sophia and Guanter, Luis and Heim, Birgit and Jung, Martin and Duveiller, Gregory and Wolanin, Aleksandra and Sachs, Torsten},
  title     = {Assessing the dynamics of vegetation productivity in circumpolar regions with different satellite indicators of greenness and photosynthesis},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1025},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44620},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446205},
  pages     = {6221 -- 6256},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {High-latitude treeless ecosystems represent spatially highly heterogeneous landscapes with small net carbon fluxes and a short growing season. Reliable observations and process understanding are critical for projections of the carbon balance of the climate-sensitive tundra. Space-borne remote sensing is the only tool to obtain spatially continuous and temporally resolved information on vegetation greenness and activity in remote circumpolar areas. However, confounding effects from persistent clouds, low sun elevation angles, numerous lakes, widespread surface inundation, and the sparseness of the vegetation render it highly challenging. Here, we conduct an extensive analysis of the timing of peak vegetation productivity as shown by satellite observations of complementary indicators of plant greenness and photosynthesis. We choose to focus on productivity during the peak of the growing season, as it importantly affects the total annual carbon uptake. The suite of indicators are as follows: (1) MODIS-based vegetation indices (VIs) as proxies for the fraction of incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) that is absorbed (fPAR), (2) VIs combined with estimates of PAR as a proxy of the total absorbed radiation (APAR), (3) sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) serving as a proxy for photosynthesis, (4) vegetation optical depth (VOD), indicative of total water content and (5) empirically upscaled modelled gross primary productivity (GPP). Averaged over the pan-Arctic we find a clear order of the annual peak as APAR ≦ GPP<SIF<VIs/VOD. SIF as an indicator of photosynthesis is maximised around the time of highest annual temperatures. The modelled GPP peaks at a similar time to APAR. The time lag of the annual peak between APAR and instantaneous SIF fluxes indicates that the SIF data do contain information on light-use efficiency of tundra vegetation, but further detailed studies are necessary to verify this. Delayed peak greenness compared to peak photosynthesis is consistently found across years and land-cover classes. A particularly late peak of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) in regions with very small seasonality in greenness and a high amount of lakes probably originates from artefacts. Given the very short growing season in circumpolar areas, the average time difference in maximum annual photosynthetic activity and greenness or growth of 3 to 25 days (depending on the data sets chosen) is important and needs to be considered when using satellite observations as drivers in vegetation models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{FuchsGrosseStraussetal.2018,
  author    = {Fuchs, Matthias and Grosse, Guido and Strauss, Jens and G{\"u}nther, Frank and Grigoriev, Mikhail N. and Maximov, Georgy M. and Hugelius, Gustaf},
  title     = {Carbon and nitrogen pools in thermokarst-affected permafrost landscapes in Arctic Siberia},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {654},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-41802},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418026},
  pages     = {19},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Ice-rich yedoma-dominated landscapes store con- siderable amounts of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) and are vulnerable to degradation under climate warming. We investigate the C and N pools in two thermokarst-affected yedoma landscapes - on Sobo-Sise Island and on Bykovsky Peninsula in the north of eastern Siberia. Soil cores up to 3 m depth were collected along geomorphic gradients and anal- ysed for organic C and N contents. A high vertical sampling density in the profiles allowed the calculation of C and N stocks for short soil column intervals and enhanced under- standing of within-core parameter variability. Profile-level C and N stocks were scaled to the landscape level based on landform classifications from 5 m resolution, multispectral RapidEye satellite imagery. Mean landscape C and N storage in the first metre of soil for Sobo-Sise Island is estimated to be 20.2 kg C m -2 and 1.8 kg N m -2 and for Bykovsky Penin- sula 25.9 kg C m -2 and 2.2 kg N m -2 . Radiocarbon dating demonstrates the Holocene age of thermokarst basin de- posits but also suggests the presence of thick Holocene- age cover layers which can reach up to 2 m on top of in- tact yedoma landforms. Reconstructed sedimentation rates of 0.10-0.57 mm yr -1 suggest sustained mineral soil accu- mulation across all investigated landforms. Both yedoma and thermokarst landforms are characterized by limited accumu- lation of organic soil layers (peat). We further estimate that an active layer deepening of about 100 cm will increase organic C availability in a sea- sonally thawed state in the two study areas by ∼ 5.8 Tg (13.2 kg C m -2 ). Our study demonstrates the importance of increasing the number of C and N storage inventories in ice- rich yedoma and thermokarst environments in order to ac- count for high variability of permafrost and thermokarst en- vironments in pan-permafrost soil C and N pool estimates.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{PradhanFischerVelthuizenetal.2015,
  author    = {Pradhan, Prajal and Fischer, G{\"u}nther and Velthuizen, Harrij van and Reusser, Dominik Edwin and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Closing yield gaps},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {491},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408105},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Global food production needs to be increased by 60-110\% between 2005 and 2050 to meet growing food and feed demand. Intensification and/or expansion of agriculture are the two main options available to meet the growing crop demands. Land conversion to expand cultivated land increases GHG emissions and impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services. Closing yield gaps to attain potential yields may be a viable option to increase the global crop production. Traditional methods of agricultural intensification often have negative externalities. Therefore, there is a need to explore location-specific methods of sustainable agricultural intensification. We identified regions where the achievement of potential crop calorie production on currently cultivated land will meet the present and future food demand based on scenario analyses considering population growth and changes in dietary habits. By closing yield gaps in the current irrigated and rain-fed cultivated land, about 24\% and 80\% more crop calories can respectively be produced compared to 2000. Most countries will reach food self-sufficiency or improve their current food self-sufficiency levels if potential crop production levels are achieved. As a novel approach, we defined specific input and agricultural management strategies required to achieve the potential production by overcoming biophysical and socioeconomic constraints causing yield gaps. The management strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, advanced soil management, land improvement, management strategies coping with weather induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. Finally, we estimated the required fertilizers (N, P2O5, and K2O) to attain the potential yields. Globally, N-fertilizer application needs to increase by 45-73\%, P2O5-fertilizer by 22-46\%, and K2O-fertilizer by 2-3 times compared to the year 2010 to attain potential crop production. The sustainability of such agricultural intensification largely depends on the way management strategies for closing yield gaps are chosen and implemented.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{AyzelIzhitskiy2018,
  author    = {Ayzel, Georgy and Izhitskiy, Alexander},
  title     = {Coupling physically based and data-driven models for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {703},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42787},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427873},
  pages     = {151 -- 158},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The Aral Sea desiccation and related changes in hydroclimatic conditions on a regional level is a hot topic for past decades. The key problem of scientific research projects devoted to an investigation of modern Aral Sea basin hydrological regime is its discontinuous nature - the only limited amount of papers takes into account the complex runoff formation system entirely. Addressing this challenge we have developed a continuous prediction system for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea based on coupling stack of hydrological and data-driven models. Results show a good prediction skill and approve the possibility to develop a valuable water assessment tool which utilizes the power of classical physically based and modern machine learning models both for territories with complex water management system and strong water-related data scarcity. The source code and data of the proposed system is available on a Github page (https://github.com/SMASHIproject/IWRM2018).},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{PrahlBoettleCostaetal.2018,
  author    = {Prahl, Boris F. and Boettle, Markus and Costa, Lu{\´i}s F{\´i}l{\´i}pe Carvalho da and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen and Rybski, Diego},
  title     = {Damage and protection cost curves for coastal floods within the 600 largest European cities},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {938},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-45967},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-459672},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The economic assessment of the impacts of storm surges and sea-level rise in coastal cities requires high-level information on the damage and protection costs associated with varying flood heights. We provide a systematically and consistently calculated dataset of macroscale damage and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities opening the perspective for a wide range of applications. Offering the first comprehensive dataset to include the costs of dike protection, we provide the underpinning information to run comparative assessments of costs and benefits of coastal adaptation. Aggregate cost curves for coastal flooding at the city-level are commonly regarded as by-products of impact assessments and are generally not published as a standalone dataset. Hence, our work also aims at initiating a more critical discussion on the availability and derivation of cost curves.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{FrielerMengelLevermann2016,
  author    = {Frieler, Katja and Mengel, Matthias and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {533},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-41023},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410234},
  pages     = {8},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Even if greenhouse gas emissions were stopped today, sea level would continue to rise for centuries, with the long-term sea-level commitment of a 2 degrees C warmer world significantly exceeding 2 m. In view of the potential implications for coastal populations and ecosystems worldwide, we investigate, from an ice-dynamic perspective, the possibility of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto the surface of the Antarctic ice sheet. We find that due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than would be expected from a pure advection with surface velocities. The delay time depends strongly on the distance from the coastline at which the additional mass is placed and less strongly on the rate of sea-level rise that is mitigated. A millennium-scale storage of at least 80\% of the additional ice requires placing it at a distance of at least 700 km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate the potential energy of ocean water to mitigate the currently observed 3 mmyr(-1) will exceed 7\% of the current global primary energy supply. At the same time, the approach offers a comprehensive protection for entire coastlines particularly including regions that cannot be protected by dikes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{FritzOpelTanskietal.2015,
  author    = {Fritz, Michael and Opel, Thomas and Tanski, George and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Meyer, Hanno and Eulenburg, A. and Lantuit, Hugues},
  title     = {Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in Arctic ground ice},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {493},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408155},
  pages     = {16},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Thermal permafrost degradation and coastal erosion in the Arctic remobilize substantial amounts of organic carbon (OC) and nutrients which have accumulated in late Pleistocene and Holocene unconsolidated deposits. Permafrost vulnerability to thaw subsidence, collapsing coastlines and irreversible landscape change are largely due to the presence of large amounts of massive ground ice such as ice wedges. However, ground ice has not, until now, been considered to be a source of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other elements which are important for ecosystems and carbon cycling. Here we show, using biogeochemical data from a large number of different ice bodies throughout the Arctic, that ice wedges have the greatest potential for DOC storage, with a maximum of 28.6 mg L-1 (mean: 9.6 mg L-1). Variation in DOC concentration is positively correlated with and explained by the concentrations and relative amounts of typically terrestrial cations such as Mg2+ and K+. DOC sequestration into ground ice was more effective during the late Pleistocene than during the Holocene, which can be explained by rapid sediment and OC accumulation, the prevalence of more easily degradable vegetation and immediate incorporation into permafrost. We assume that pristine snowmelt is able to leach considerable amounts of well-preserved and highly bioavailable DOC as well as other elements from surface sediments, which are rapidly frozen and stored in ground ice, especially in ice wedges, even before further degradation. We found that ice wedges in the Yedoma region represent a significant DOC (45.2 Tg) and DIC (33.6 Tg) pool in permafrost areas and a freshwater reservoir of 4200 km(2). This study underlines the need to discriminate between particulate OC and DOC to assess the availability and vulnerability of the permafrost car-bon pool for ecosystems and climate feedback upon mobilization.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{SiegmundWiedermannDongesetal.2016,
  author    = {Siegmund, Jonatan Frederik and Wiedermann, Marc and Donges, Jonathan Friedemann and Donner, Reik Volker},
  title     = {Impact of temperature and precipitation extremes on the flowering dates of four German wildlife shrub species},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {497},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-40835},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408352},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Ongoing climate change is known to cause an increase in the frequency and amplitude of local temperature and precipitation extremes in many regions of the Earth. While gradual changes in the climatological conditions have already been shown to strongly influence plant flowering dates, the question arises if and how extremes specifically impact the timing of this important phenological phase. Studying this question calls for the application of statistical methods that are tailored to the specific properties of event time series. Here, we employ event coincidence analysis, a novel statistical tool that allows assessing whether or not two types of events exhibit similar sequences of occurrences in order to systematically quantify simultaneities between meteorological extremes and the timing of the flowering of four shrub species across Germany. Our study confirms previous findings of experimental studies by highlighting the impact of early spring temperatures on the flowering of the investigated plants. However, previous studies solely based on correlation analysis do not allow deriving explicit estimates of the strength of such interdependencies without further assumptions, a gap that is closed by our analysis. In addition to direct impacts of extremely warm and cold spring temperatures, our analysis reveals statistically significant indications of an influence of temperature extremes in the autumn preceding the flowering.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{BaumbachSiegmundMittermeieretal.2017,
  author    = {Baumbach, Lukas and Siegmund, Jonatan Frederik and Mittermeier, Magdalena and Donner, Reik Volker},
  title     = {Impacts of temperature extremes on European vegetation during the growing season},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {642},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-41801},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418018},
  pages     = {4891 -- 4903},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the mid-latitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{KruseGerdesKathetal.2018,
  author    = {Kruse, Stefan and Gerdes, Alexander and Kath, Nadja J. and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Implementing spatially explicit wind-driven seed and pollen dispersal in the individual-based larch simulation model},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {929},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44597},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445978},
  pages     = {4451 -- 4467},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{JingHesseKumaretal.2018,
  author    = {Jing, Miao and Heße, Falk and Kumar, Rohini and Wang, Wenqing and Fischer, Thomas and Walther, Marc and Zink, Matthias and Zech, Alraune and Samaniego, Luis and Kolditz, Olaf and Attinger, Sabine},
  title     = {Improved regional-scale groundwater representation by the coupling of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM v5.7) to the groundwater model OpenGeoSys (OGS)},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {851},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42703},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427030},
  pages     = {1989 -- 2007},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Most large-scale hydrologic models fall short in reproducing groundwater head dynamics and simulating transport process due to their oversimplified representation of groundwater flow. In this study, we aim to extend the applicability of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM v5.7) to subsurface hydrology by coupling it with the porous media simulator OpenGeoSys (OGS). The two models are one-way coupled through model interfaces GIS2FEM and RIV2FEM, by which the grid-based fluxes of groundwater recharge and the river-groundwater exchange generated by mHM are converted to fixed-flux boundary conditions of the groundwater model OGS. Specifically, the grid-based vertical reservoirs in mHM are completely preserved for the estimation of land-surface fluxes, while OGS acts as a plug-in to the original mHM modeling framework for groundwater flow and transport modeling. The applicability of the coupled model (mHM-OGS v1.0) is evaluated by a case study in the central European mesoscale river basin - Nagelstedt. Different time steps, i.e., daily in mHM and monthly in OGS, are used to account for fast surface flow and slow groundwater flow. Model calibration is conducted following a two-step procedure using discharge for mHM and long-term mean of groundwater head measurements for OGS. Based on the model summary statistics, namely the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the interquartile range error (QRE), the coupled model is able to satisfactorily represent the dynamics of discharge and groundwater heads at several locations across the study basin. Our exemplary calculations show that the one-way coupled model can take advantage of the spatially explicit modeling capabilities of surface and groundwater hydrologic models and provide an adequate representation of the spatiotemporal behaviors of groundwater storage and heads, thus making it a valuable tool for addressing water resources and management problems.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{RottlerFranckeBuergeretal.2020,
  author    = {Rottler, Erwin and Francke, Till and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Bronstert, Axel},
  title     = {Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869-2016},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {4},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-51776},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517763},
  pages     = {22},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions. Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RottlerFranckeBuergeretal.2020,
  author    = {Rottler, Erwin and Francke, Till and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Bronstert, Axel},
  title     = {Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869-2016},
  series = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  volume    = {24},
  journal   = {Hydrology and Earth System Sciences},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1027-5606},
  doi       = {10.5194/hess-24-1721-2020},
  pages     = {1721 -- 1740},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions. Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{StraussSchirrmeisterMangelsdorfetal.2015,
  author    = {Strauss, Jens and Schirrmeister, Lutz and Mangelsdorf, Kai and Eichhorn, L. and Wetterich, Sebastian and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Organic-matter quality of deep permafrost carbon},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {514},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-40953},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409534},
  pages     = {19},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {The organic-carbon (OC) pool accumulated in Arctic permafrost (perennially frozen ground) equals the carbon stored in the modern atmosphere. To give an idea of how Yedoma region permafrost could respond under future climatic warming, we conducted a study to quantify the organic-matter quality (here defined as the intrinsic potential to be further transformed, decomposed, and mineralized) of late Pleistocene (Yedoma) and Holocene (thermokarst) deposits on the Buor-Khaya Peninsula, northeast Siberia. The objective of this study was to develop a stratigraphic classified organic-matter quality characterization. For this purpose the degree of organic-matter decomposition was estimated by using a multiproxy approach. We applied sedimentological (grain-size analyses, bulk density, ice content) and geochemical parameters (total OC, stable carbon isotopes (delta C-13),total organic carbon : nitrogen (C / N) ratios) as well as lipid biomarkers (n-alkanes, n-fatty acids, hopanes, triterpenoids, and biomarker indices, i.e., average chain length, carbon preference index (CPI), and higher-plant fatty-acid index (HPFA)). Our results show that the Yedoma and thermokarst organic-matter qualities for further decomposition exhibit no obvious degradation-depth trend. Relatively, the C / N and delta C-13 values and the HPFA index show a significantly better preservation of the organic matter stored in thermokarst deposits compared to Yedoma deposits. The CPI data suggest less degradation of the organic matter from both deposits, with a higher value for Yedoma organic matter. As the interquartile ranges of the proxies mostly over-lap, we interpret this as indicating comparable quality for further decomposition for both kinds of deposits with likely better thermokarst organic-matter quality. Supported by principal component analyses, the sediment parameters and quality proxies of Yedoma and thermokarst deposits could not be unambiguously separated from each other. This revealed that the organic-matter vulnerability is heterogeneous and depends on different decomposition trajectories and the previous decomposition and preservation history. Elucidating this was one of the major new contributions of our multiproxy study. With the addition of biomarker data, it was possible to show that permafrost organic-matter degradation likely occurs via a combination of (uncompleted) degradation cycles or a cascade of degradation steps rather than as a linear function of age or sediment facies. We conclude that the amount of organic matter in the studied sediments is high for mineral soils and of good quality and therefore susceptible to future decomposition. The lack of depth trends shows that permafrost acts like a giant freezer, preserving the constant quality of ancient organic matter. When undecomposed Yedoma organic matter is mobilized via thermokarst processes, the fate of this carbon depends largely on the environmental conditions; the carbon could be preserved in an undecomposed state till refreezing occurs. If modern input has occurred, thermokarst organic matter could be of a better quality for future microbial decomposition than that found in Yedoma deposits.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{BiskabornSmithNoetzlietal.2019,
  author    = {Biskaborn, Boris and Smith, Sharon L. and Noetzli, Jeannette and Matthes, Heidrun and Vieira, Gon{\c{c}}alo and Streletskiy, Dmitry A. and Schoeneich, Philippe and Romanovsky, Vladimir E. and Lewkowicz, Antoni G. and Abramov, Andrey and Allard, Michel and Boike, Julia and Cable, William L. and Christiansen, Hanne H. and Delaloye, Reynald and Diekmann, Bernhard and Drozdov, Dmitry and Etzelm{\"u}ller, Bernd and Große, Guido and Guglielmin, Mauro and Ingeman-Nielsen, Thomas and Isaksen, Ketil and Ishikawa, Mamoru and Johansson, Margareta and Joo, Anseok and Kaverin, Dmitry and Kholodov, Alexander and Konstantinov, Pavel and Kr{\"o}ger, Tim and Lambiel, Christophe and Lanckman, Jean-Pierre and Luo, Dongliang and Malkova, Galina and Meiklejohn, Ian and Moskalenko, Natalia and Oliva, Marc and Phillips, Marcia and Ramos, Miguel and Sannel, A. Britta K. and Sergeev, Dmitrii and Seybold, Cathy and Skryabin, Pavel and Vasiliev, Alexander and Wu, Qingbai and Yoshikawa, Kenji and Zheleznyak, Mikhail and Lantuit, Hugues},
  title     = {Permafrost is warming at a global scale},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {669},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42534},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-425341},
  pages     = {11},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{BoettleRybskiKropp2016,
  author    = {Boettle, Markus and Rybski, Diego and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {559},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-41240},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412405},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{FosterGarvieWeissetal.2020,
  author    = {Foster, William J. and Garvie, Christopher L. and Weiss, Anna M. and Muscente, A. Drew and Aberhan, Martin and Counts, John W. and Martindale, Rowan C.},
  title     = {Resilience of marine invertebrate communities during the early Cenozoic hyperthermals},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-51601},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516011},
  pages     = {13},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The hyperthermal events of the Cenozoic, including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, provide an opportunity to investigate the potential effects of climate warming on marine ecosystems. Here, we examine the shallow benthic marine communities preserved in the late Cretaceous to Eocene strata on the Gulf Coastal Plain (United States). In stark contrast to the ecological shifts following the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, our data show that the early Cenozoic hyperthermals did not have a long-term impact on the generic diversity nor composition of the Gulf Coastal Plain molluscan communities. We propose that these communities were resilient to climate change because molluscs are better adapted to high temperatures than other taxa, as demonstrated by their physiology and evolutionary history. In terms of resilience, these communities differ from other shallow-water carbonate ecosystems, such as reef communities, which record significant changes during the early Cenozoic hyperthermals. These data highlight the strikingly different responses of community types, i.e., the almost imperceptible response of molluscs versus the marked turnover of foraminifera and reef faunas. The impact on molluscan communities may have been low because detrimental conditions did not devastate the entire Gulf Coastal Plain, allowing molluscs to rapidly recolonise vacated areas once harsh environmental conditions ameliorated.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{FosterGarvieWeissetal.2020,
  author    = {Foster, William J. and Garvie, Christopher L. and Weiss, Anna M. and Muscente, A. Drew and Aberhan, Martin and Counts, John W. and Martindale, Rowan C.},
  title     = {Resilience of marine invertebrate communities during the early Cenozoic hyperthermals},
  series = {Scientific Reports},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Scientific Reports},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Springer Nature},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2045-2322},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41598-020-58986-5},
  pages     = {1 -- 11},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The hyperthermal events of the Cenozoic, including the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, provide an opportunity to investigate the potential effects of climate warming on marine ecosystems. Here, we examine the shallow benthic marine communities preserved in the late Cretaceous to Eocene strata on the Gulf Coastal Plain (United States). In stark contrast to the ecological shifts following the end-Cretaceous mass extinction, our data show that the early Cenozoic hyperthermals did not have a long-term impact on the generic diversity nor composition of the Gulf Coastal Plain molluscan communities. We propose that these communities were resilient to climate change because molluscs are better adapted to high temperatures than other taxa, as demonstrated by their physiology and evolutionary history. In terms of resilience, these communities differ from other shallow-water carbonate ecosystems, such as reef communities, which record significant changes during the early Cenozoic hyperthermals. These data highlight the strikingly different responses of community types, i.e., the almost imperceptible response of molluscs versus the marked turnover of foraminifera and reef faunas. The impact on molluscan communities may have been low because detrimental conditions did not devastate the entire Gulf Coastal Plain, allowing molluscs to rapidly recolonise vacated areas once harsh environmental conditions ameliorated.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{CohenCampisanoArrowsmithetal.2016,
  author    = {Cohen, Abby and Campisano, Christopher and Arrowsmith, J. Ramon and Asrat, Asfawossen and Behrensmeyer, A. K. and Deino, A. and Feibel, C. and Hill, A. and Johnson, R. and Kingston, J. and Lamb, Henry F. and Lowenstein, T. and Noren, A. and Olago, D. and Owen, Richard Bernhart and Potts, R. and Reed, Kate and Renaut, R. and Sch{\"a}bitz, F. and Tiercelin, J.-J. and Trauth, Martin H. and Wynn, J. and Ivory, S. and Brady, K. and O'Grady, R. and Rodysill, J. and Githiri, J. and Russell, Joellen and Foerster, Verena and Dommain, Ren{\´e} and Rucina, J. S. and Deocampo, D. and Russell, J. and Billingsley, A. and Beck, C. and Dorenbeck, G. and Dullo, L. and Feary, D. and Garello, D. and Gromig, R. and Johnson, T. and Junginger, Annett and Karanja, M. and Kimburi, E. and Mbuthia, A. and McCartney, Tannis and McNulty, E. and Muiruri, V. and Nambiro, E. and Negash, E. W. and Njagi, D. and Wilson, J. N. and Rabideaux, N. and Raub, Timothy and Sier, Mark Jan and Smith, P. and Urban, J. and Warren, M. and Yadeta, M. and Yost, Chad and Zinaye, B.},
  title     = {The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {611},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-41249},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412498},
  pages     = {16},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The role that climate and environmental history may have played in influencing human evolution has been the focus of considerable interest and controversy among paleoanthropologists for decades. Prior attempts to understand the environmental history side of this equation have centered around the study of outcrop sediments and fossils adjacent to where fossil hominins (ancestors or close relatives of modern humans) are found, or from the study of deep sea drill cores. However, outcrop sediments are often highly weathered and thus are unsuitable for some types of paleoclimatic records, and deep sea core records come from long distances away from the actual fossil and stone tool remains. The Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) was developed to address these issues. The project has focused its efforts on the eastern African Rift Valley, where much of the evidence for early hominins has been recovered. We have collected about 2 km of sediment drill core from six basins in Kenya and Ethiopia, in lake deposits immediately adjacent to important fossil hominin and archaeological sites. Collectively these cores cover in time many of the key transitions and critical intervals in human evolutionary history over the last 4 Ma, such as the earliest stone tools, the origin of our own genus Homo, and the earliest anatomically modern Homo sapiens. Here we document the initial field, physical property, and core description results of the 2012-2014 HSPDP coring campaign.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{BiskabornLanckmanLantuitetal.2015,
  author    = {Biskaborn, Boris and Lanckman, J.-P. and Lantuit, Hugues and Elger, K. and Streletskiy, Dmitry and Cable, W. L. and Romanovsky, Vladimir E.},
  title     = {The new database of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P)},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {523},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-40961},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-409612},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {The Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) provides the first dynamic database associated with the Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP) and the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) programs, which extensively collect permafrost temperature and active layer thickness (ALT) data from Arctic, Antarctic and mountain permafrost regions. The purpose of GTN-P is to establish an early warning system for the consequences of climate change in permafrost regions and to provide standardized thermal permafrost data to global models. In this paper we introduce the GTN-P database and perform statistical analysis of the GTN-P metadata to identify and quantify the spatial gaps in the site distribution in relation to climate-effective environmental parameters. We describe the concept and structure of the data management system in regard to user operability, data transfer and data policy. We outline data sources and data processing including quality control strategies based on national correspondents. Assessment of the metadata and data quality reveals 63\% metadata completeness at active layer sites and 50\% metadata completeness for boreholes. Voronoi tessellation analysis on the spatial sample distribution of boreholes and active layer measurement sites quantifies the distribution inhomogeneity and provides a potential method to locate additional permafrost research sites by improving the representativeness of thermal monitoring across areas underlain by permafrost. The depth distribution of the boreholes reveals that 73\% are shallower than 25m and 27\% are deeper, reaching a maximum of 1 km depth. Comparison of the GTN-P site distribution with permafrost zones, soil organic carbon contents and vegetation types exhibits different local to regional monitoring situations, which are illustrated with maps. Preferential slope orientation at the sites most likely causes a bias in the temperature monitoring and should be taken into account when using the data for global models. The distribution of GTN-P sites within zones of projected temperature change show a high representation of areas with smaller expected temperature rise but a lower number of sites within Arctic areas where climate models project extreme temperature increase.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{TardifFluteauDonnadieuetal.2020,
  author    = {Tardif, Delphine and Fluteau, Fr{\´e}d{\´e}ric and Donnadieu, Yannick and Le Hir, Guillaume and Ladant, Jean-Baptiste and Sepulchre, Pierre and Licht, Alexis and Poblete, Fernando and Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume},
  title     = {The origin of Asian monsoons},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1436},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-51677},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516770},
  pages     = {21},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The Cenozoic inception and development of the Asian monsoons remain unclear and have generated much debate, as several hypotheses regarding circulation patterns at work in Asia during the Eocene have been proposed in the few last decades. These include (a) the existence of modern-like monsoons since the early Eocene; (b) that of a weak South Asian monsoon (SAM) and little to no East Asian monsoon (EAM); or (c) a prevalence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrations, also referred to as Indonesian-Australian monsoon (I-AM). As SAM and EAM are supposed to have been triggered or enhanced primarily by Asian palaeogeographic changes, their possible inception in the very dynamic Eocene palaeogeographic context remains an open question, both in the modelling and field-based communities. We investigate here Eocene Asian climate conditions using the IPSL-CM5A2 (Sepulchre et al., 2019) earth system model and revised palaeogeographies. Our Eocene climate simulation yields atmospheric circulation patterns in Asia substantially different from modern conditions. A large high-pressure area is simulated over the Tethys ocean, which generates intense low tropospheric winds blowing southward along the western flank of the proto-Himalayan-Tibetan plateau (HTP) system. This low-level wind system blocks, to latitudes lower than 10 degrees N, the migration of humid and warm air masses coming from the Indian Ocean. This strongly contrasts with the modern SAM, during which equatorial air masses reach a latitude of 20-25 degrees N over India and southeastern China. Another specific feature of our Eocene simulation is the widespread subsidence taking place over northern India in the midtroposphere (around 5000 m), preventing deep convective updraught that would transport water vapour up to the condensation level. Both processes lead to the onset of a broad arid region located over northern India and over the HTP. More humid regions of high seasonality in precipitation encircle this arid area, due to the prevalence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrations (or Indonesian-Australian monsoon, I-AM) rather than monsoons. Although the existence of this central arid region may partly result from the specifics of our simulation (model dependence and palaeogeographic uncertainties) and has yet to be confirmed by proxy records, most of the observational evidence for Eocene monsoons are located in the highly seasonal transition zone between the arid area and the more humid surroundings. We thus suggest that a zonal arid climate prevailed over Asia before the initiation of monsoons that most likely occurred following Eocene palaeogeographic changes. Our results also show that precipitation seasonality should be used with caution to infer the presence of a monsoonal circulation and that the collection of new data in this arid area is of paramount importance to allow the debate to move forward.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{TardifFluteauDonnadieuetal.2020,
  author    = {Tardif, Delphine and Fluteau, Fr{\´e}d{\´e}ric and Donnadieu, Yannick and Le Hir, Guillaume and Ladant, Jean-Baptiste and Sepulchre, Pierre and Licht, Alexis and Poblete, Fernando and Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume},
  title     = {The origin of Asian monsoons},
  series = {Climate of the Past},
  volume    = {16},
  journal   = {Climate of the Past},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1814-9332},
  doi       = {10.5194/cp-16-847-2020},
  pages     = {847 -- 865},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The Cenozoic inception and development of the Asian monsoons remain unclear and have generated much debate, as several hypotheses regarding circulation patterns at work in Asia during the Eocene have been proposed in the few last decades. These include (a) the existence of modern-like monsoons since the early Eocene; (b) that of a weak South Asian monsoon (SAM) and little to no East Asian monsoon (EAM); or (c) a prevalence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrations, also referred to as Indonesian-Australian monsoon (I-AM). As SAM and EAM are supposed to have been triggered or enhanced primarily by Asian palaeogeographic changes, their possible inception in the very dynamic Eocene palaeogeographic context remains an open question, both in the modelling and field-based communities. We investigate here Eocene Asian climate conditions using the IPSL-CM5A2 (Sepulchre et al., 2019) earth system model and revised palaeogeographies. Our Eocene climate simulation yields atmospheric circulation patterns in Asia substantially different from modern conditions. A large high-pressure area is simulated over the Tethys ocean, which generates intense low tropospheric winds blowing southward along the western flank of the proto-Himalayan-Tibetan plateau (HTP) system. This low-level wind system blocks, to latitudes lower than 10 degrees N, the migration of humid and warm air masses coming from the Indian Ocean. This strongly contrasts with the modern SAM, during which equatorial air masses reach a latitude of 20-25 degrees N over India and southeastern China. Another specific feature of our Eocene simulation is the widespread subsidence taking place over northern India in the midtroposphere (around 5000 m), preventing deep convective updraught that would transport water vapour up to the condensation level. Both processes lead to the onset of a broad arid region located over northern India and over the HTP. More humid regions of high seasonality in precipitation encircle this arid area, due to the prevalence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrations (or Indonesian-Australian monsoon, I-AM) rather than monsoons. Although the existence of this central arid region may partly result from the specifics of our simulation (model dependence and palaeogeographic uncertainties) and has yet to be confirmed by proxy records, most of the observational evidence for Eocene monsoons are located in the highly seasonal transition zone between the arid area and the more humid surroundings. We thus suggest that a zonal arid climate prevailed over Asia before the initiation of monsoons that most likely occurred following Eocene palaeogeographic changes. Our results also show that precipitation seasonality should be used with caution to infer the presence of a monsoonal circulation and that the collection of new data in this arid area is of paramount importance to allow the debate to move forward.},
  language  = {en}
}