@article{Hudson2018,
author = {Hudson, Paul},
title = {A comparison of definitions of affordability for flood risk adaption measures},
series = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change},
volume = {23},
journal = {Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change},
number = {7},
publisher = {Springer},
address = {Dordrecht},
issn = {1381-2386},
doi = {10.1007/s11027-017-9769-5},
pages = {1019 -- 1038},
year = {2018},
abstract = {Risk-based insurance is a commonly proposed and discussed flood risk adaptation mechanism in policy debates across the world such as in the United Kingdom and the United States of America. However, both risk-based premiums and growing risk pose increasing difficulties for insurance to remain affordable. An empirical concept of affordability is required as the affordability of adaption strategies is an important concern for policymakers, yet such a concept is not often examined. Therefore, a robust metric with a commonly acceptable affordability threshold is required. A robust metric allows for a previously normative concept to be quantified in monetary terms, and in this way, the metric is rendered more suitable for integration into public policy debates. This paper investigates the degree to which risk-based flood insurance premiums are unaffordable in Europe. In addition, this paper compares the outcomes generated by three different definitions of unaffordability in order to investigate the most robust definition. In doing so, the residual income definition was found to be the least sensitive to changes in the threshold. While this paper focuses on Europe, the selected definition can be employed elsewhere in the world and across adaption measures in order to develop a common metric for indicating the potential unaffordability problem.},
language = {en}
}
@article{SamprognaMohorHudsonThieken2020,
author = {Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret},
title = {A comparison of factors driving flood losses in households affected by different flood types},
series = {Water resources research},
volume = {56},
journal = {Water resources research},
number = {4},
publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
address = {Washington},
issn = {0043-1397},
doi = {10.1029/2019WR025943},
pages = {20},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Flood loss data collection and modeling are not standardized, and previous work has indicated that losses from different flood types (e.g., riverine and groundwater) may follow different driving forces. However, different flood types may occur within a single flood event, which is known as a compound flood event. Therefore, we aimed to identify statistical similarities between loss-driving factors across flood types and test whether the corresponding losses should be modeled separately. In this study, we used empirical data from 4,418 respondents from four survey campaigns studying households in Germany that experienced flooding. These surveys sought to investigate several features of the impact process (hazard, socioeconomic, preparedness, and building characteristics, as well as flood type). While the level of most of these features differed across flood type subsamples (e.g., degree of preparedness), they did so in a nonregular pattern. A variable selection process indicates that besides hazard and building characteristics, information on property-level preparedness was also selected as a relevant predictor of the loss ratio. These variables represent information, which is rarely adopted in loss modeling. Models shall be refined with further data collection and other statistical methods. To save costs, data collection efforts should be steered toward the most relevant predictors to enhance data availability and increase the statistical power of results. Understanding that losses from different flood types are driven by different factors is a crucial step toward targeted data collection and model development and will finally clarify conditions that allow us to transfer loss models in space and time.
Key Points
Survey data of flood-affected households show different concurrent flood types, undermining the use of a single-flood-type loss model Thirteen variables addressing flood hazard, the building, and property level preparedness are significant predictors of the building loss ratio Flood type-specific models show varying significance across the predictor variables, indicating a hindrance to model transferability},
language = {en}
}
@article{WutzlerHudsonThieken2022,
author = {Wutzler, Bianca and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret},
title = {Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany},
series = {Frontiers in water},
volume = {4},
journal = {Frontiers in water},
publisher = {Frontiers Media},
address = {Lausanne},
issn = {2624-9375},
doi = {10.3389/frwa.2022.932061},
pages = {13},
year = {2022},
abstract = {Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.},
language = {en}
}
@article{WutzlerHudsonThieken2022,
author = {Wutzler, Bianca and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret},
title = {Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany},
series = {Frontiers in Water},
journal = {Frontiers in Water},
publisher = {Frontiers Media SA},
address = {Lausanne, Schweiz},
issn = {2624-9375},
doi = {10.3389/frwa.2022.932061},
pages = {13},
year = {2022},
abstract = {Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{WutzlerHudsonThieken2022,
author = {Wutzler, Bianca and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret},
title = {Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany},
series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
number = {1304},
issn = {1866-8372},
doi = {10.25932/publishup-57735},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-577350},
pages = {13},
year = {2022},
abstract = {Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{HudsonDeRuigDeRuiteretal.2019,
author = {Hudson, Paul and De Ruig, Lars T. and De Ruiter, Marco C. and Kuik, Onno J. and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Le Den, X. and Persson, Magnus and Benoist, Anthony and Nielsen, C. N.},
title = {An assessment of best practices of extreme weather insurance and directions for a more resilient society},
series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
number = {757},
issn = {1866-8372},
doi = {10.25932/publishup-43351},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-433510},
pages = {22},
year = {2019},
abstract = {Extreme weather resilience has been defined as being based on three pillars: resistance (the ability to lower impacts), recovery (the ability to bounce back), and adaptive capacity (the ability to learn and improve). These resilience pillars are important both before and after the occurrence of extreme weather events. Extreme weather insurance can influence these pillars of resilience depending on how particular insurance mechanisms are structured. We explore how the lessons learnt from the current best insurance practices can improve resilience to extreme weather events. We employ an extensive inventory of private property and agricultural crop insurance mechanisms to conduct a multi-criteria analysis of insurance market outcomes. We draw conclusions regarding the patterns in the best practice from six European countries to increase resilience. We suggest that requirements to buy a bundle extreme weather event insurance with general insurance packages are strengthened and supported with structures to financing losses through public-private partnerships. Moreover, support for low income households through income vouchers could be provided. Similarly, for the agricultural sector we propose moving towards comprehensive crop yield insurance linked to general agricultural subsidies. In both cases a nationally representative body can coordinate the various stakeholders into acting in concert.},
language = {en}
}
@article{HudsonPhamBubeck2019,
author = {Hudson, Paul and Pham, My and Bubeck, Philip},
title = {An evaluation and monetary assessment of the impact of flooding on subjective well-being across genders in Vietnam},
series = {Climate \& development},
volume = {11},
journal = {Climate \& development},
number = {7},
publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group},
address = {Abingdon},
issn = {1756-5529},
doi = {10.1080/17565529.2019.1579698},
pages = {623 -- 637},
year = {2019},
abstract = {The intangible impacts of floods on welfare are not well investigated, even though they are important aspects of welfare. Moreover, flooding has gender based impacts on welfare. These differing impacts create a gender based flood risk resilience gap. We study the intangible impacts of flood risk on the subjective well-being of residents in central Vietnam. The measurement of intangible impacts through subjective well-being is a growing field within flood risk research. We find an initial drop in welfare through subjective well-being across genders when a flood is experienced. Male respondents tended to recover their welfare losses by around 80\% within 5 years while female respondents were associated with a welfare recovery of around 70\%. A monetization of the impacts floods have on an individual's subjective well-being shows that for the average female respondent, between 41\% to 86\% of annual income would be required to compensate subjective well-being losses after 5 years of experiencing a flood. The corresponding value for males is 30\% to 57\% of annual income. This shows that the intangible impacts of flood risk are important (across genders) and need to be integrated into flood (or climate) risk assessments to develop more socially appropriate risk management strategies.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{HudsonPhamBubeck2019,
author = {Hudson, Paul and Pham, My and Bubeck, Philip},
title = {An evaluation and monetary assessment of the impact of flooding on subjective well-being across genders in Vietnam},
series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
number = {736},
issn = {1866-8372},
doi = {10.25932/publishup-43341},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-433414},
pages = {623 -- 637},
year = {2019},
abstract = {The intangible impacts of floods on welfare are not well investigated, even though they are important aspects of welfare. Moreover, flooding has gender based impacts on welfare. These differing impacts create a gender based flood risk resilience gap. We study the intangible impacts of flood risk on the subjective well-being of residents in central Vietnam. The measurement of intangible impacts through subjective well-being is a growing field within flood risk research. We find an initial drop in welfare through subjective well-being across genders when a flood is experienced. Male respondents tended to recover their welfare losses by around 80\% within 5 years while female respondents were associated with a welfare recovery of around 70\%. A monetization of the impacts floods have on an individual's subjective well-being shows that for the average female respondent, between 41\% to 86\% of annual income would be required to compensate subjective well-being losses after 5 years of experiencing a flood. The corresponding value for males is 30\% to 57\% of annual income. This shows that the intangible impacts of flood risk are important (across genders) and need to be integrated into flood (or climate) risk assessments to develop more socially appropriate risk management strategies.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{HudsonBotzen2019,
author = {Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter},
title = {Cost-benefit analysis of flood-zoning policies: A review of current practice},
series = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews : Water},
volume = {6},
journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews : Water},
number = {6},
publisher = {Wiley},
address = {Hoboken},
issn = {2049-1948},
doi = {10.1002/wat2.1387},
pages = {21},
year = {2019},
abstract = {One commonly proposed method to limit flood risk is land-use or zoning policies which regulates construction in high-risk areas, in order to reduce economic exposure and its vulnerability to flood events. Although such zoning regulations can be effective in limiting trends in flood risk, they also have adverse impacts on society, for instance by limiting local development of areas near the water. In order to judge whether proposed land-use or zoning policies are a net benefit to society, they should be accepted or rejected based on a societal cost-benefit analysis (CBA). However, conducting a CBA of zoning regulation is complex and comprehensive guidelines of how to do such an analysis are lacking. We offer guidelines for good practice. In order to assess the costs and benefits of zoning as a climate change adaption strategy, they should be assessed at a societal level in order to account for public good features of flood risk reduction strategies, and because costs in one area can be benefits in another region. We propose a multistep process: first, determine the spatial extent of the zoning policy and how interconnected the zoned area is to other locations; second, conduct a CBA using monetary costs and benefits estimated from an integrated hydro-economic model to investigate if total benefits exceed total costs; third, conduct a sensitivity analysis regarding the main assumptions; fourth, conduct a multicriteria analysis (MCA) of the normative outcomes of a zoning policy. A desirable policy is preferred in both the CBA and MCA. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Value of Water Science of Water > Water Extremes Human Water > Methods},
language = {en}
}
@article{HudsonBotzenAerts2019,
author = {Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.},
title = {Flood insurance arrangements in the European Union for future flood risk under climate and socioeconomic change},
series = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions},
volume = {58},
journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions},
publisher = {Elsevier},
address = {Oxford},
issn = {0959-3780},
doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101966},
pages = {13},
year = {2019},
abstract = {Flood risk will increase in many areas around the world due to climate change and increase in economic exposure. This implies that adequate flood insurance schemes are needed to adapt to increasing flood risk and to minimise welfare losses for households in flood-prone areas. Flood insurance markets may need reform to offer sufficient and affordable financial protection and incentives for risk reduction. Here, we present the results of a study that aims to evaluate the ability of flood insurance arrangements in Europe to cope with trends in flood risk, using criteria that encompass common elements of the policy debate on flood insurance reform. We show that the average risk-based flood insurance premium could double between 2015 and 2055 in the absence of more risk reduction by households exposed to flooding. We show that part of the expected future increase in flood risk could be limited by flood insurance mechanisms that better incentivise risk reduction by policyholders, which lowers vulnerability. The affordability of flood insurance can be improved by introducing the key features of public-private partnerships (PPPs), which include public reinsurance, limited premium cross-subsidisation between low- and high-risk households, and incentives for policyholder-level risk reduction. These findings were evaluated in a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and support ongoing reforms in Europe and abroad that move towards risk-based premiums and link insurance with risk reduction, strengthen purchase requirements, and engage in multi-stakeholder partnerships.},
language = {en}
}
@article{RoderHudsonTaroili2019,
author = {Roder, Giulia and Hudson, Paul and Taroili, Paolo},
title = {Flood risk perceptions and the willingness to pay for flood insurance in the Veneto region of Italy},
series = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
volume = {37},
journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},
publisher = {Elsevier},
address = {Amsterdam},
issn = {2212-4209},
doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101172},
pages = {10},
year = {2019},
abstract = {The floodplain of the Veneto region (north-east Italy) is one of the most inhabited and economically competitive urban landscapes in Europe. Moreover, recent flood events have caused millions of Euros in damage across the region. Due to the combined influence of climate change and socio-economic development, flood impacts are expected to grow. Therefore, it is important for all flood-prone individuals to actively manage and limit flood risk through property-level flood risk management as part of an integrated flood risk management strategy. This is in line with the calls for wider community engagement in risk management in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. Therefore, an online-survey of Veneto region residents was conducted asking questions regarding flood risk perceptions, preparedness, and preferences towards flood insurance via self-stated willingness to pay (WTP). Our analysis provides an initial indication that while flood risk knowledge is high, it may not be sufficient to encourage proactive risk management. From the WTP values provided people seem reluctant to buy insurance. However, many respondents expressed that a compulsory insurance system may be acceptable. In such a scheme the estimated insurance premium could fall to between (sic)26 and (sic)42 per year, as compared to, potentially, (sic)800 under risk-based premiums, which falls within the majority of WTP estimates provided ((sic)0-(sic)250). Overall, we identify areas of future research that are critical for the better design of risk management policies, supporting the insurance companies in risk management and for recommendations regarding property-level risk management.},
language = {en}
}
@article{UnterbergerHudsonBotzenetal.2018,
author = {Unterberger, Christian and Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Schroeer, Katharina and Steininger, Karl W.},
title = {Future public sector flood risk and risk sharing arrangements},
series = {Ecological economics},
volume = {156},
journal = {Ecological economics},
publisher = {Elsevier},
address = {Amsterdam},
issn = {0921-8009},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2018.09.019},
pages = {153 -- 163},
year = {2018},
abstract = {Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{UnterbergerHudsonBotzenetal.2018,
author = {Unterberger, Christian and Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Schroeer, Katharina and Steininger, Karl W.},
title = {Future public sector flood risk and risk sharing arrangements},
series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
number = {634},
issn = {1866-8372},
doi = {10.25932/publishup-42462},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424629},
pages = {11},
year = {2018},
abstract = {Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{HudsonBotzenPoussinetal.2019,
author = {Hudson, Paul and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Poussin, Jennifer and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.},
title = {Impacts of flooding and flood preparedness on subjective well-being},
series = {Journal of Happiness Studies},
volume = {20},
journal = {Journal of Happiness Studies},
number = {2},
publisher = {Springer Science},
address = {Dordrecht},
issn = {1389-4978},
doi = {10.1007/s10902-017-9916-4},
pages = {665 -- 682},
year = {2019},
abstract = {Flood disasters severely impact human subjective well-being (SWB). Nevertheless, few studies have examined the influence of flood events on individual well-being and how such impacts may be limited by flood protection measures. This study estimates the long term impacts on individual subjective well-being of flood experiences, individual subjective flood risk perceptions, and household flood preparedness decisions. These effects are monetised and placed in context through a comparison with impacts of other adverse events on well-being. We collected data from households in flood-prone areas in France. The results indicate that experiencing a flood has a large negative impact on subjective well-being that is incompletely attenuated over time. Moreover, individuals do not need to be directly affected by floods to suffer SWB losses since subjective well-being is lower for those who expect their flood risk to increase or who have seen a neighbour being flooded. Floodplain inhabitants who prepared for flooding by elevating their home have a higher subjective well-being. A monetisation of the aforementioned well-being impacts shows that a flood requires Euro150,000 in immediate compensation to attenuate SWB losses. The decomposition of the monetised impacts of flood experience into tangible losses and intangible effects on SWB shows that intangible effects are about twice as large as the tangible direct monetary flood losses. Investments in flood protection infrastructure may be under funded if the intangible SWB benefits of flood protection are not taken into account.},
language = {en}
}
@article{KreibichHudsonMerz2021,
author = {Kreibich, Heidi and Hudson, Paul and Merz, Bruno},
title = {Knowing what to do substantially improves the effectiveness of flood early warning},
series = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
volume = {102},
journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society},
number = {7},
publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.},
address = {Boston},
issn = {0003-0007},
doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0262.1},
pages = {E1450 -- E1463},
year = {2021},
abstract = {Flood warning systems are longstanding success stories with respect to protecting human life, but monetary losses continue to grow. Knowledge on the effectiveness of flood early warning in reducing monetary losses is scarce, especially at the individual level. To gain more knowledge in this area, we analyze a dataset that is unique with respect to detailed information on warning reception and monetary losses at the property level and with respect to amount of data available. The dataset contains 4,468 loss cases from six flood events in Germany. These floods occurred between 2002 and 2013. The data from each event were collected by computer-aided telephone interviews in four surveys following a repeated cross-sectional design. We quantitatively reveal that flood early warning is only effective in reducing monetary losses when people know what to do when they receive the warning. We also show that particularly long-term preparedness is associated with people knowing what to do when they receive a warning. Thus, risk communication, training, and (financial) support for private preparedness are effective in mitigating flood losses in two ways: precautionary measures and more effective emergency responses.},
language = {en}
}
@article{HudsonHagedoornBubeck2020,
author = {Hudson, Paul and Hagedoorn, Liselotte and Bubeck, Philip},
title = {Potential linkages between social capital, flood risk perceptions, and self-efficacy},
series = {International journal of disaster risk science},
volume = {11},
journal = {International journal of disaster risk science},
number = {3},
publisher = {Springer},
address = {Berlin},
issn = {2095-0055},
doi = {10.1007/s13753-020-00259-w},
pages = {251 -- 262},
year = {2020},
abstract = {A growing focus is being placed on both individuals and communities to adapt to flooding as part of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. Adaptation to flooding requires sufficient social capital (linkages between members of society), risk perceptions (understanding of risk), and self-efficacy (self-perceived ability to limit disaster impacts) to be effective. However, there is limited understanding of how social capital, risk perceptions, and self-efficacy interact. We seek to explore how social capital interacts with variables known to increase the likelihood of successful adaptation. To study these linkages we analyze survey data of 1010 respondents across two communities in Thua Tien-Hue Province in central Vietnam, using ordered probit models. We find positive correlations between social capital, risk perceptions, and self-efficacy overall. This is a partly contrary finding to what was found in previous studies linking these concepts in Europe, which may be a result from the difference in risk context. The absence of an overall negative exchange between these factors has positive implications for proactive flood risk adaptation.},
language = {en}
}
@article{HagedoornBubeckHudsonetal.2021,
author = {Hagedoorn, Liselotte and Bubeck, Philip and Hudson, Paul and Brander, Luke and Pham Thi Dieu, My and Lasage, Ralph},
title = {Preferences of vulnerable social groups for ecosystem-based adaptation to flood risk in Central Vietnam},
series = {World development : the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development},
volume = {148},
journal = {World development : the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development},
publisher = {Elsevier},
address = {Amsterdam},
issn = {0305-750X},
doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105650},
pages = {24},
year = {2021},
abstract = {Developing countries are increasingly impacted by floods, especially in Asia. Traditional flood risk man-agement, using structural measures such as levees, can have negative impacts on the livelihoods of social groups that are more vulnerable. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) provides a complementary approach that is potentially more inclusive of groups that are commonly described as more vulnerable, such as the poor and women. However, there is a lack of disaggregated and quantitative information on the potential of EbA to support vulnerable groups of society. This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the differ-ences in vulnerability to flooding as well as preferences for EbA benefits across income groups and gen -der. We use data collected through a survey of households in urban and rural Central Vietnam which included a discrete choice experiment on preferences for ecosystem services. A total of 1,010 households was surveyed during 2017 through a random sampling approach. Preferences are measured in monetary and non-monetary terms to avoid issues that may arise from financial constraints faced by respondents and especially the more vulnerable groups. Our results reveal that lower income households and women are overall more vulnerable than their counterparts and have stronger preferences for the majority of the EbA benefits, including flood protection, seafood abundance, tourism, and recreation suitability. These findings strongly indicate that EbA is indeed a promising tool to support groups of society that are espe-cially vulnerable to floods. These results provide crucial insights for future implementation of EbA pro-jects and for the integration of EbA with goals targeted at complying with the Sendai Framework and Sustainable Development Goals. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).},
language = {en}
}
@article{TesselaarBotzenHaeretal.2020,
author = {Tesselaar, Max and Botzen, W. J. Wouter and Haer, Toon and Hudson, Paul and Tiggeloven, Timothy and Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.},
title = {Regional inequalities in flood insurance affordability and uptake under climate change},
series = {Sustainability},
volume = {12},
journal = {Sustainability},
number = {20},
publisher = {MDPI},
address = {Basel},
issn = {2071-1050},
doi = {10.3390/su12208734},
pages = {30},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Flood insurance coverage can enhance financial resilience of households to changing flood risk caused by climate change. However, income inequalities imply that not all households can afford flood insurance. The uptake of flood insurance in voluntary markets may decline when flood risk increases as a result of climate change. This increase in flood risk may cause substantially higher risk-based insurance premiums, reduce the willingness to purchase flood insurance, and worsen problems with the unaffordability of coverage for low-income households. A socio-economic tipping-point can occur when the functioning of a formal flood insurance system is hampered by diminishing demand for coverage. In this study, we examine whether such a tipping-point can occur in Europe for current flood insurance systems under different trends in future flood risk caused by climate and socio-economic change. This analysis gives insights into regional inequalities concerning the ability to continue to use flood insurance as an instrument to adapt to changing flood risk. For this study, we adapt the "Dynamic Integrated Flood and Insurance" (DIFI) model by integrating new flood risk simulations in the model that enable examining impacts from various scenarios of climate and socio-economic change on flood insurance premiums and consumer demand. Our results show rising unaffordability and declining demand for flood insurance across scenarios towards 2080. Under a high climate change scenario, simulations show the occurrence of a socio-economic tipping-point in several regions, where insurance uptake almost disappears. A tipping-point and related inequalities in the ability to use flood insurance as an adaptation instrument can be mitigated by introducing reforms of flood insurance arrangements.},
language = {en}
}
@article{HudsonPhamHagedoornetal.2020,
author = {Hudson, Paul and Pham, My and Hagedoorn, Liselotte and Thieken, Annegret and Lasage, Ralph and Bubeck, Philip},
title = {Self-stated recovery from flooding},
series = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
volume = {14},
journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
address = {Oxford},
issn = {1753-318X},
doi = {10.1111/jfr3.12680},
pages = {15},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Social inequalities lead to flood resilience inequalities across social groups, a topic that requires improved documentation and understanding. The objective of this paper is to attend to these differences by investigating self-stated flood recovery across genders in Vietnam as a conceptual replication of earlier results from Germany. This study employs a regression-based analysis of 1,010 respondents divided between a rural coastal and an urban community in Thua Thien-Hue province. The results highlight an important set of recovery process-related variables. The set of relevant variables is similar across genders in terms of inclusion and influence, and includes age, social capital, internal and external support after a flood, perceived severity of previous flood impacts, and the perception of stress-resilience. However, women were affected more heavily by flooding in terms of longer recovery times, which should be accounted for in risk management. Overall, the studied variables perform similarly in Vietnam and Germany. This study, therefore, conceptually replicates previous results suggesting that women display slightly slower recovery levels as well as that psychological variables influence recovery rates more than adverse flood impacts. This provides an indication of the results' potentially robust nature due to the different socio-environmental contexts in Germany and Vietnam.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{HudsonPhamHagedoornetal.2020,
author = {Hudson, Paul and Pham, My and Hagedoorn, Liselotte and Thieken, Annegret and Lasage, Ralph and Bubeck, Philip},
title = {Self-stated recovery from flooding},
series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
number = {1140},
issn = {1866-8372},
doi = {10.25932/publishup-50348},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-503488},
pages = {17},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Social inequalities lead to flood resilience inequalities across social groups, a topic that requires improved documentation and understanding. The objective of this paper is to attend to these differences by investigating self-stated flood recovery across genders in Vietnam as a conceptual replication of earlier results from Germany. This study employs a regression-based analysis of 1,010 respondents divided between a rural coastal and an urban community in Thua Thien-Hue province. The results highlight an important set of recovery process-related variables. The set of relevant variables is similar across genders in terms of inclusion and influence, and includes age, social capital, internal and external support after a flood, perceived severity of previous flood impacts, and the perception of stress-resilience. However, women were affected more heavily by flooding in terms of longer recovery times, which should be accounted for in risk management. Overall, the studied variables perform similarly in Vietnam and Germany. This study, therefore, conceptually replicates previous results suggesting that women display slightly slower recovery levels as well as that psychological variables influence recovery rates more than adverse flood impacts. This provides an indication of the results' potentially robust nature due to the different socio-environmental contexts in Germany and Vietnam.},
language = {en}
}
@article{JehmlichHudsonThieken2020,
author = {Jehmlich, Caroline and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret},
title = {Short contribution on adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies},
series = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
volume = {13},
journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
address = {Oxford},
issn = {1753-318X},
doi = {10.1111/jfr3.12653},
pages = {7},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Integrated flood management strategies consider property-level precautionary measures as a vital part. Whereas this is a well-researched topic for residents, little is known about the adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies although they often settle on the ground floor of buildings and are thus among the first affected by flooding. This pilot study analyses flood responses of 64 businesses in a district of the city of Dresden, Germany that experienced major flooding in 2002 and 2013. Using standardised survey data and accompanying qualitative interviews, the analyses revealed that the largest driver of adaptive behaviour is experiencing flood events. Intangible factors such as tradition and a sense of community play a role for the decision to stay in the area, while lacking ownership might hamper property-level adaptation. Further research is also needed to understand the role of insurance and governmental aid for recovery and adaptation of businesses.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{JehmlichHudsonThieken2020,
author = {Jehmlich, Caroline and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret},
title = {Short contribution on adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies},
series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
number = {1024},
issn = {1866-8372},
doi = {10.25932/publishup-48552},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-485528},
pages = {9},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Integrated flood management strategies consider property-level precautionary measures as a vital part. Whereas this is a well-researched topic for residents, little is known about the adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies although they often settle on the ground floor of buildings and are thus among the first affected by flooding. This pilot study analyses flood responses of 64 businesses in a district of the city of Dresden, Germany that experienced major flooding in 2002 and 2013. Using standardised survey data and accompanying qualitative interviews, the analyses revealed that the largest driver of adaptive behaviour is experiencing flood events. Intangible factors such as tradition and a sense of community play a role for the decision to stay in the area, while lacking ownership might hamper property-level adaptation. Further research is also needed to understand the role of insurance and governmental aid for recovery and adaptation of businesses.},
language = {en}
}
@article{Hudson2020,
author = {Hudson, Paul},
title = {The affordability of flood risk property-level adaptation measures},
series = {Risk Analysis},
volume = {40},
journal = {Risk Analysis},
number = {6},
publisher = {Wiley},
address = {Hoboken},
issn = {0272-4332},
doi = {10.1111/risa.13465},
pages = {1151 -- 1167},
year = {2020},
abstract = {The affordability of property-level adaptation measures against flooding is crucial due to the movement toward integrated flood risk management, which requires the individuals threatened by flooding to actively manage flooding. It is surprising to find that affordability is not often discussed, given the important roles that affordability and social justice play regarding flood risk management. This article provides a starting point for investigating the potential rate of unaffordability of flood risk property-level adaptation measures across Europe using two definitions of affordability, which are combined with two different affordability thresholds from within flood risk research. It uses concepts of investment and payment affordability, with affordability thresholds based on residual income and expenditure definitions of unaffordability. These concepts, in turn, are linked with social justice through fairness concerns, in that, all should have equal capability to act, of which affordability is one avenue. In doing so, it was found that, for a large proportion of Europe, property owners generally cannot afford to make one-time payment of the cost of protective measures. These can be made affordable with installment payment mechanisms or similar mechanisms that spread costs over time. Therefore, the movement toward greater obligations for flood-prone residents to actively adapt to flooding should be accompanied by socially accessible financing mechanisms.},
language = {en}
}
@article{KuhlickeSeebauerHudsonetal.2020,
author = {Kuhlicke, Christian and Seebauer, Sebastian and Hudson, Paul and Begg, Chloe and Bubeck, Philip and Dittmer, Cordula and Grothmann, Torsten and Heidenreich, Anna and Kreibich, Heidi and Lorenz, Daniel F. and Masson, Torsten and Reiter, Jessica and Thaler, Thomas and Thieken, Annegret and Bamberg, Sebastian},
title = {The behavioral turn in flood risk management, its assumptions and potential implications},
series = {WIREs Water},
volume = {7},
journal = {WIREs Water},
number = {3},
publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
address = {Hoboken},
issn = {2049-1948},
doi = {10.1002/wat2.1418},
pages = {1 -- 22},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Recent policy changes highlight the need for citizens to take adaptive actions to reduce flood-related impacts. Here, we argue that these changes represent a wider behavioral turn in flood risk management (FRM). The behavioral turn is based on three fundamental assumptions: first, that the motivations of citizens to take adaptive actions can be well understood so that these motivations can be targeted in the practice of FRM; second, that private adaptive measures and actions are effective in reducing flood risk; and third, that individuals have the capacities to implement such measures. We assess the extent to which the assumptions can be supported by empirical evidence. We do this by engaging with three intellectual catchments. We turn to research by psychologists and other behavioral scientists which focus on the sociopsychological factors which influence individual motivations (Assumption 1). We engage with economists, engineers, and quantitative risk analysts who explore the extent to which individuals can reduce flood related impacts by quantifying the effectiveness and efficiency of household-level adaptive measures (Assumption 2). We converse with human geographers and sociologists who explore the types of capacities households require to adapt to and cope with threatening events (Assumption 3). We believe that an investigation of the behavioral turn is important because if the outlined assumptions do not hold, there is a risk of creating and strengthening inequalities in FRM. Therefore, we outline the current intellectual and empirical knowledge as well as future research needs. Generally, we argue that more collaboration across intellectual catchments is needed, that future research should be more theoretically grounded and become methodologically more rigorous and at the same time focus more explicitly on the normative underpinnings of the behavioral turn.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{KuhlickeSeebauerHudsonetal.2020,
author = {Kuhlicke, Christian and Seebauer, Sebastian and Hudson, Paul and Begg, Chloe and Bubeck, Philip and Dittmer, Cordula and Grothmann, Torsten and Heidenreich, Anna and Kreibich, Heidi and Lorenz, Daniel F. and Masson, Torsten and Reiter, Jessica and Thaler, Thomas and Thieken, Annegret and Bamberg, Sebastian},
title = {The behavioral turn in flood risk management, its assumptions and potential implications},
series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
number = {3},
issn = {1866-8372},
doi = {10.25932/publishup-51769},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517696},
pages = {24},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Recent policy changes highlight the need for citizens to take adaptive actions to reduce flood-related impacts. Here, we argue that these changes represent a wider behavioral turn in flood risk management (FRM). The behavioral turn is based on three fundamental assumptions: first, that the motivations of citizens to take adaptive actions can be well understood so that these motivations can be targeted in the practice of FRM; second, that private adaptive measures and actions are effective in reducing flood risk; and third, that individuals have the capacities to implement such measures. We assess the extent to which the assumptions can be supported by empirical evidence. We do this by engaging with three intellectual catchments. We turn to research by psychologists and other behavioral scientists which focus on the sociopsychological factors which influence individual motivations (Assumption 1). We engage with economists, engineers, and quantitative risk analysts who explore the extent to which individuals can reduce flood related impacts by quantifying the effectiveness and efficiency of household-level adaptive measures (Assumption 2). We converse with human geographers and sociologists who explore the types of capacities households require to adapt to and cope with threatening events (Assumption 3). We believe that an investigation of the behavioral turn is important because if the outlined assumptions do not hold, there is a risk of creating and strengthening inequalities in FRM. Therefore, we outline the current intellectual and empirical knowledge as well as future research needs. Generally, we argue that more collaboration across intellectual catchments is needed, that future research should be more theoretically grounded and become methodologically more rigorous and at the same time focus more explicitly on the normative underpinnings of the behavioral turn.},
language = {en}
}
@misc{HudsonThiekenBubeck2019,
author = {Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret and Bubeck, Philip},
title = {The challenges of longitudinal surveys in the flood risk domain},
series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
number = {759},
issn = {1866-8372},
doi = {10.25932/publishup-43409},
url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-434092},
pages = {23},
year = {2019},
abstract = {There has been much research regarding the perceptions, preferences, behaviour, and responses of people exposed to flooding and other nat- ural hazards. Cross-sectional surveys have been the predominant method applied in such research. While cross-sectional data can provide a snapshot of a respondent's behaviour and perceptions, it cannot be assumed that the respondent's perceptions are constant over time. As a result, many important research questions relating to dynamic processes, such as changes in risk perceptions, adaptation behaviour, and resilience cannot be fully addressed by cross-sectional surveys. To overcome these shortcomings, there has been a call for developing longitudinal (or panel) datasets in research on natural hazards, vulnerabilities, and risks. However, experiences with implementing longitudinal surveys in the flood risk domain (FRD), which pose distinct methodological challenges, are largely lacking. The key problems are sample recruitment, attrition rate, and attrition bias. We present a review of the few existing longitudinal surveys in the FRD. In addition, we investigate the potential attrition bias and attrition rates in a panel dataset of flood-affected households in Germany. We find little potential for attrition bias to occur. High attrition rates across longitudinal survey waves are the larger concern. A high attrition rate rapidly depletes the longitudinal sample. To overcome high attrition, longitudinal data should be collected as part of a multisector partnership to allow for sufficient resources to implement sample retention strategies. If flood-specific panels are developed, different sample retention strategies should be applied and evaluated in future research to understand how much-needed longitudinal surveying techniques can be successfully applied to the study of individuals threatened by flooding.},
language = {en}
}
@article{HudsonThieken2022,
author = {Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret},
title = {The presence of moral hazard regarding flood insurance and German private businesses},
series = {Natural hazards : journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards},
volume = {112},
journal = {Natural hazards : journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards},
number = {2},
publisher = {Springer},
address = {Dordrecht [u.a.]},
issn = {0921-030X},
doi = {10.1007/s11069-022-05227-9},
pages = {1295 -- 1319},
year = {2022},
abstract = {There is a movement towards the concepts of integrated flood risk management and governance. In these concepts, each stakeholder prone to flooding is tasked with actively limiting flood impacts. Currently, relatively more research has focused upon the adaptation of private households and not on private businesses operating in flood-prone areas. This paper offers an extension of this literature on business-level flood adaptation by exploring the potential presence of moral hazard. The analyses are based on survey data collected in the aftermath of six floods across Germany between 2002 and 2013 to provide a first indication of the presence of moral hazard in private businesses. Moral hazard is where increased insurance coverage results in policyholders preparing less, increasing the risk they face, a counterproductive outcome. We present an initial study of moral hazard occurring through three channels: the performance of emergency measures during a flood, changes in precautionary behavior employed before a given flood occurred, and changes in the intention to employ additional precautionary measures after a flood. We find, much like for private households, no strong indication that moral hazard is present regarding past adaptation. However, there is a potential avenue after 2005 for insurance coverage to lower businesses' intentions to employ more adaptation measures after a flood. This has significant policy relevance such as opportunities for strengthening the link between insurance and risk reduction measures and boosting insurance coverage against flooding in general.},
language = {en}
}
@article{BubeckBerghaeuserHudsonetal.2020,
author = {Bubeck, Philip and Bergh{\"a}user, Lisa and Hudson, Paul and Thieken, Annegret},
title = {Using panel data to understand the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding},
series = {Risk analysis : an international journal},
volume = {40},
journal = {Risk analysis : an international journal},
number = {11},
publisher = {Wiley},
address = {Hoboken},
issn = {0272-4332},
doi = {10.1111/risa.13548},
pages = {2340 -- 2359},
year = {2020},
abstract = {Insights into the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding are urgently needed for the development of effective integrated flood risk management strategies, and for integrating human behavior in flood risk modeling. However, our understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, attitudes, individual recovery processes, as well as adaptive (i.e., risk reducing) intention and behavior are currently limited because of the predominant use of cross-sectional surveys in the flood risk domain. Here, we present the results from one of the first panel surveys in the flood risk domain covering a relatively long period of time (i.e., four years after a damaging event), three survey waves, and a wide range of topics relevant to the role of citizens in integrated flood risk management. The panel data, consisting of 227 individuals affected by the 2013 flood in Germany, were analyzed using repeated-measures ANOVA and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) to utilize the unique temporal dimension of the data set. Results show that attitudes, such as the respondents' perceived responsibility within flood risk management, remain fairly stable over time. Changes are observed partly for risk perceptions and mainly for individual recovery and intentions to undertake risk-reducing measures. LCGA reveal heterogeneous recovery and adaptation trajectories that need to be taken into account in policies supporting individual recovery and stimulating societal preparedness. More panel studies in the flood risk domain are needed to gain better insights into the dynamics of individual recovery, risk-reducing behavior, and associated risk and protective factors.},
language = {en}
}