@article{ZurellJeltschDormannetal.2009, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Jeltsch, Florian and Dormann, Carsten F. and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems : how good can predictions really be?}, issn = {0906-7590}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05810.x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {SDM performance varied for different range dynamics. Prediction accuracies decreased when abrupt range shifts occurred as species were outpaced by the rate of climate change, and increased again when a new equilibrium situation was realised. When ranges contracted, prediction accuracies increased as the absences were predicted well. Far- dispersing species were faster in tracking climate change, and were predicted more accurately by SDMs than short- dispersing species. BRTs mostly outperformed GLMs. The presence of a predator, and the inclusion of its incidence as an environmental predictor, made BRTs and GLMs perform similarly. Results are discussed in light of other studies dealing with effects of ecological traits and processes on SDM performance. Perspectives are given on further advancements of SDMs and for possible interfaces with more mechanistic approaches in order to improve predictions under environmental change.}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschMoloney2001, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Moloney, Kirk A.}, title = {Spatially-explicit vegetation models : what have we learned ?}, year = {2001}, language = {en} } @article{MoloneyJeltsch2008, author = {Moloney, Kirk A. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Space matters : novel developments in plant ecology through spatial modelling}, issn = {1433-8319}, doi = {10.1016/j.ppees.2007.12.002}, year = {2008}, language = {en} } @article{SchaeferMenzJeltschetal.2017, author = {Sch{\"a}fer, Merlin and Menz, Stephan and Jeltsch, Florian and Zurell, Damaris}, title = {sOAR: a tool for modelling optimal animal life-history strategies in cyclic environments}, series = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, volume = {41}, journal = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0906-7590}, doi = {10.1111/ecog.03328}, pages = {551 -- 557}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Periodic environments determine the life cycle of many animals across the globe and the timing of important life history events, such as reproduction and migration. These adaptive behavioural strategies are complex and can only be fully understood (and predicted) within the framework of natural selection in which species adopt evolutionary stable strategies. We present sOAR, a powerful and user-friendly implementation of the well-established framework of optimal annual routine modelling. It allows determining optimal animal life history strategies under cyclic environmental conditions using stochastic dynamic programming. It further includes the simulation of population dynamics under the optimal strategy. sOAR provides an important tool for theoretical studies on the behavioural and evolutionary ecology of animals. It is especially suited for studying bird migration. In particular, we integrated options to differentiate between costs of active and passive flight into the optimal annual routine modelling framework, as well as options to consider periodic wind conditions affecting flight energetics. We provide an illustrative example of sOAR where food supply in the wintering habitat of migratory birds significantly alters the optimal timing of migration. sOAR helps improving our understanding of how complex behaviours evolve and how behavioural decisions are constrained by internal and external factors experienced by the animal. Such knowledge is crucial for anticipating potential species' response to global environmental change.}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschHansenThulke2003, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Hansen, Frank and Thulke, Hans-Hermann}, title = {Simulationsmodelle zur Planung von Strategien in der Bek{\"a}mpfung von Wildtiererkrankungen}, year = {2003}, language = {de} } @article{TietjenZeheJeltsch2009, author = {Tietjen, Britta and Zehe, Erwin and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Simulating plant water availability in dry lands under climate change : a generic model of two soil layers}, issn = {0043-1397}, doi = {10.1029/2007WR006589}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Dry lands are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. The effects of climate change are likely to increase this risk; thus a profound knowledge of the system dynamics is crucial for evaluating management options. This applies particularly for the interactions between water and vegetation, which exhibit strong feedbacks. To evaluate these feedbacks and the effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, we developed a generic, process-based, spatially explicit soil moisture model of two soil layers, which can be coupled with vegetation models. A time scale relevant for ecological processes can be simulated without difficulty, and the model avoids complex parameterization with data that are unavailable for most regions of the world. We applied the model to four sites in Israel along a precipitation and soil type gradient and assessed the effects of climate change by comparing possible climatic changes with present climate conditions. The results show that in addition to temperature, the total amount of precipitation and its intra-annual variability are an important driver of soil moisture patterns. This indicates that particularly with regard to climate change, the approach of many ecological models that simulate water dynamics on an annual base is far too simple to make reliable predictions. Thus, the introduced model can serve as a valuable tool to improve present ecological models of dry lands because of its focus on the applicability and transferability.}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschWeberMoloney2000, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Weber, G. E. and Moloney, Kirk A.}, title = {Simulated long-term vegetation response to alternative stocking strategies in savanna rangelands}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{LohmannTietjenBlaumetal.2012, author = {Lohmann, Dirk and Tietjen, Britta and Blaum, Niels and Joubert, David F. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Shifting thresholds and changing degradation patterns: climate change effects on the simulated long-term response of a semi-arid savanna to grazing}, series = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, volume = {49}, journal = {Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0021-8901}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2664.2012.02157.x}, pages = {814 -- 823}, year = {2012}, abstract = {1. The complex, nonlinear response of dryland systems to grazing and climatic variations is a challenge to management of these lands. Predicted climatic changes will impact the desertification of drylands under domestic livestock production. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the response of drylands to grazing under climate change. 2. We enhanced and parameterized an ecohydrological savanna model to assess the impacts of a range of climate change scenarios on the response of a semi-arid African savanna to grazing. We focused on the effects of temperature and CO2 level increase in combination with changes in inter- and intra-annual precipitation patterns on the long-term dynamics of three major plant functional types. 3. We found that the capacity of the savanna to sustain livestock grazing was strongly influenced by climate change. Increased mean annual precipitation and changes in intra-annual precipitation pattern have the potential to slightly increase carrying capacities of the system. In contrast, decreased precipitation, higher interannual variation and temperature increase are leading to a severe decline of carrying capacities owing to losses of the perennial grass biomass. 4. Semi-arid rangelands will be at lower risk of shrub encroachment and encroachment will be less intense under future climatic conditions. This finding holds in spite of elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 and irrespective of changes in precipitation pattern, because of the drought sensitivity of germination and establishment of encroaching species. 5. Synthesis and applications. Changes in livestock carrying capacities, both positive and negative, mainly depend on the highly uncertain future rainfall conditions. However, independent of the specific changes, shrub encroachment becomes less likely and in many cases less severe. Thus, managers of semi-arid rangelands should shift their focus from woody vegetation towards perennial grass species as indicators for rangeland degradation. Furthermore, the resulting reduced competition from woody vegetation has the potential to facilitate ecosystem restoration measures such as re-introduction of desirable plant species that are only little promising or infeasible under current climatic conditions. On a global scale, the reductions in standing biomass resulting from altered degradation dynamics of semi-arid rangelands can have negative impacts on carbon sequestration.}, language = {en} } @article{RossmanithBlaumHoentschetal.2009, author = {Rossmanith, Eva and Blaum, Niels and H{\"o}ntsch, Kerstin and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Sex-related parental care strategies in the lesser spotted woodpecker "Picoides minor" : of flexible mothers and dependable fathers}, issn = {0908-8857}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-048X.2008.04353.x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {We investigated sex-specific parental care behaviour of lesser spotted woodpeckers Picoides minor in the low mountain range Taunus, Germany. Observed parental care included incubation, nest sanitation as well as brooding and feeding of nestlings. Contributions of the two sexes to parental care changed in progress of the breeding period. During incubation and the first half of the nestling period, parental care was divided equally between partners. However, in the late nestling stage, we found males to feed their nestlings irrespective of brood size while females considerably decreased feeding rate with the number of nestlings. This behaviour culminated in desertion of small broods by females shortly before fledging. The fact that even deserted nests were successful indicates that males were able to compensate for the females' absence. Interestingly, the mating of one female with two males with separate nests could be found in the population, which confirms earlier findings of polyandry in the lesser spotted woodpecker. We conclude that biparental care is not essential in the later stage and one partner can reduce effort and thus costs of parental care, at least in small broods where the mate is able to compensate for that behaviour. Reduced care and desertion appears only in females, which might be caused by a combination of two traits: First, females might suffer higher costs of investment in terms of mortality and secondly, male-biased sex ratio in the population generally leads to higher mating probabilities for females in the following breeding season. The occurrence of polyandry seems to be a result of these conditions.}, language = {en} } @article{EstherGroeneveldEnrightetal.2010, author = {Esther, Alexandra and Groeneveld, Juergen and Enright, Neal J. and Miller, Ben P. and Lamont, Byron B. and Perry, George L. W. and Blank, F. Benjamin and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Sensitivity of plant functional types to climate change : classification tree analysis of a simulation model}, issn = {1100-9233}, doi = {10.1111/j.1654-1103.2009.01155.x}, year = {2010}, abstract = {Question: The majority of studies investigating the impact of climate change on local plant communities ignores changes in regional processes, such as immigration from the regional seed pool. Here we explore: (i) the potential impact of climate change on composition of the regional seed pool, (ii) the influence of changes in climate and in the regional seed pool on local community structure, and (iii) the combinations of life history traits, i.e. plant functional types (PFTs), that are most affected by environmental changes. Location: Fire-prone, Mediterranean-type shrublands in southwestern Australia. Methods: Spatially explicit simulation experiments were conducted at the population level under different rainfall and fire regime scenarios to determine the effect of environmental change on the regional seed pool for 38 PFTs. The effects of environmental and seed immigration changes on local community dynamics were then derived from community-level experiments. Classification tree analyses were used to investigate PFT- specific vulnerabilities to climate change. Results: The classification tree analyses revealed that responses of PFTs to climate change are determined by specific trait characteristics. PFT-specific seed production and community patterns responded in a complex manner to climate change. For example, an increase in annual rainfall caused an increase in numbers of dispersed seeds for some PFTs, but decreased PFT diversity in the community. Conversely, a simulated decrease in rainfall reduced the number of dispersed seeds and diversity of PFTs. Conclusions: PFT interactions and regional processes must be considered when assessing how local community structure will be affected by environmental change.}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschGroeneveldWisseletal.2005, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Wissel, Christian and Wucherer, W. and Dimeyeva, L.}, title = {Seed dispersal by cattle may cause shrub encroachment of Grewia flava on southern Kalahari rangelands}, isbn = {3-86537-386-0}, year = {2005}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschWiegandWard2004, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Wiegand, K. and Ward, D.}, title = {Seed dispersal by cattle may cause shrub encroachment of Grewia flava on southern Kalahari rangelands}, year = {2004}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschTewsSchurr2004, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Tews, J{\"o}rg and Schurr, Frank Martin}, title = {Seed dispersal by cattle may cause shrub encroachment of Grewia flava on southern Kalahari rangelands}, year = {2004}, abstract = {Shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase in woody plant cover, is a major concern for livestock farming in southern Kalahari savannas. We developed a grid-based computer model simulating the population dynamics of Grewia flava, a common, fleshy-fruited encroaching shrub. In the absence of large herbivores, seeds of Grewia are largely deposited in the sub-canopy of Acacia erioloba. Cattle negate this dispersal limitation by browsing on the foliage of Grewia and dispersing seeds into the grassland matrix. In this study we first show that model predictions of Grewia cover dynamics are realistic by comparing model output with shrub cover estimates obtained from a time series of aerial photographs. Subsequently, we apply a realistic range of intensity of cattle-induced seed dispersal combined with potential precipitation and fire scenarios. Based on the simulation results we suggest that cattle may facilitate shrub encroachment of Grewia. The results show that the severity of shrub encroachment is governed by the intensity of seed dispersal. For a high seed dispersal intensity without fire (equivalent to a high stocking rate) the model predicts 56\% shrub cover and 85\% cell cover after 100 yr. With fire both recruitment and shrub cover are reduced, which may, under moderate intensities, prevent shrub encroachment. Climate change scenarios with two-fold higher frequencies of drought and wet years intensified shrub encroachment rates, although long-term mean of precipitation remained constant. As a management recommendation we suggest that shrub encroachment on rangelands may be counteracted by frequent fires and controlling cattle movements to areas with a high proportion of fruiting Grewia shrubs}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{RossmanithBlaumKeiletal.2006, author = {Rossmanith, Eva and Blaum, Niels and Keil, Manfred and Langerwisch, F. and Meyer, Jork and Popp, Alexander and Schmidt, Michael and Schultz, Christoph and Schwager, Monika and Vogel, Melanie and Wasiolka, Bernd and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Scaling up local population dynamics to regional scales}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-7320}, year = {2006}, abstract = {In semi-arid savannas, unsustainable land use can lead to degradation of entire landscapes, e.g. in the form of shrub encroachment. This leads to habitat loss and is assumed to reduce species diversity. In BIOTA phase 1, we investigated the effects of land use on population dynamics on farm scale. In phase 2 we scale up to consider the whole regional landscape consisting of a diverse mosaic of farms with different historic and present land use intensities. This mosaic creates a heterogeneous, dynamic pattern of structural diversity at a large spatial scale. Understanding how the region-wide dynamic land use pattern affects the abundance of animal and plant species requires the integration of processes on large as well as on small spatial scales. In our multidisciplinary approach, we integrate information from remote sensing, genetic and ecological field studies as well as small scale process models in a dynamic region-wide simulation tool.
Interdisziplin{\"a}res Zentrum f{\"u}r Musterdynamik und Angewandte Fernerkundung Workshop vom 9. - 10. Februar 2006.}, language = {en} } @article{PoppVogelBlaumetal.2009, author = {Popp, Alexander and Vogel, Melanie and Blaum, Niels and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Scaling up ecohydrological processes : role of surface water flow in water-limited landscapes}, issn = {0148-0227}, doi = {10.1029/2008jg000910}, year = {2009}, abstract = {In this study, we present a stochastic landscape modeling approach that has the power to transfer and integrate existing information on vegetation dynamics and hydrological processes from the small scale to the landscape scale. To include microscale processes like ecohydrological feedback mechanisms and spatial exchange like surface water flow, we derive transition probabilities from a fine-scale simulation model. We applied two versions of the landscape model, one that includes and one that disregards spatial exchange of water to the situation of a sustainably used research farm and communally used and degraded rangeland in semiarid Namibia. Our simulation experiments show that including spatial exchange of overland flow among vegetation patches into our model is a precondition to reproduce vegetation dynamics, composition, and productivity, as well as hydrological processes at the landscape scale. In the model version that includes spatial exchange of water, biomass production at light grazing intensities increases 2.24-fold compared to the model without overland flow. In contrast, overgrazing destabilizes positive feedbacks through vegetation and hydrology and decreases the number of hydrological sinks in the model with overland flow. The buffer capacity of these hydrological sinks disappears and runoff increases. Here, both models predicted runoff losses from the system and artificial droughts occurring even in years with good precipitation. Overall, our study reveals that a thorough understanding of overland flow is an important precondition for improving the management of semiarid and arid rangelands with distinct topography.}, language = {en} } @misc{GiladiMayRistowetal.2014, author = {Giladi, Itamar and May, Felix and Ristow, Michael and Jeltsch, Florian and Ziv, Yaron}, title = {Scale-dependent species-area and species-isolation relationships: a review and a test study from a fragmented semi-arid agro-ecosystem}, series = {Journal of biogeography}, volume = {41}, journal = {Journal of biogeography}, number = {6}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0305-0270}, doi = {10.1111/jbi.12299}, pages = {1055 -- 1069}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Aim Patterns that relate species richness with fragment area (the species-area relationship, SAR) and with isolation (the species-isolation relationship, SIR) are well documented. However, those that relate species density - the number of species within a standardized area - with fragment area (D-SAR) or isolation (D-SIR) have not been sufficiently explored, despite the potential for such an analysis to disentangle the underlying mechanisms of SARs and SIRs. Previous spatial theory predicts that a significant D-SAR or D-SIR is unlikely to emerge in taxa with high dispersal limitation, such as plants. Furthermore, a recent model predicts that the detection and the significance of D-SARs or D-SIRs may decrease with grain size. We combined a literature review with grain size-dependent sampling in a fragmented landscape to evaluate the prevalence and grain size-dependent nature of D-SARs and D-SIRs in plants. Location Worldwide (review) and a semi-arid agro-ecosystem in Israel (case study). Methods We combined an extensive literature review of 31 D-SAR studies of plants in fragmented landscapes with an empirical study in which we analysed grain size-dependent D-SARs and D-SIRs using a grain size-dependent hierarchical sampling of species density and species richness in a fragmented, semi-arid agro-ecosystem. Results We found that significantly increasing D-SARs are rare in plant studies. Furthermore, we found that the detection of a significant D-SAR is often possible only after the data have been stratified by species, habitat or landscape characteristics. The results from our case study indicated that the significance and the slopes of both D-SARs and D-SIRs increase as grain size decreases. Main conclusions These results call for a careful consideration of scale while analysing and interpreting the responses of species richness and species density to fragmentation. Our results suggest that grain size-dependent analyses of D-SARs and D-SIRs may help to disentangle the mechanisms that generate SARs and SIRs and may enable early detection of the effects of fragmentation on plant biodiversity.}, language = {en} } @article{GiladiZivMayetal.2011, author = {Giladi, Itamar and Ziv, Yaron and May, Felix and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Scale-dependent determinants of plant species richness in a semi-arid fragmented agro-ecosystem}, series = {Journal of vegetation science}, volume = {22}, journal = {Journal of vegetation science}, number = {6}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Malden}, issn = {1100-9233}, doi = {10.1111/j.1654-1103.2011.01309.x}, pages = {983 -- 996}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Aims: (1) Understanding how the relationship between species richness and its determinants depends on the interaction between scales at which the response and explanatory variables are measured. (2) Quantifying the relative contributions of local, intermediate and large-scale determinants of species richness in a fragmented agro-ecosystem. (3) Testing the hypothesis that the relative contribution of these determinants varies with the grain size at which species richness is measured. Location: A fragmented agro-ecosystem in the Southern Judea Lowland, Israel, within a desert-Mediterranean transition zone. Methods: Plant species richness was estimated using hierarchical nested sampling in 81 plots, positioned in 38 natural vegetation patches within an agricultural matrix (mainly wheat fields) among three land units along a sharp precipitation gradient. Explanatory variables included position along that gradient, patch area, patch isolation, habitat heterogeneity and overall plant density. We used general linear models and hierarchical partitioning of variance to test and quantify the effect of each explanatory variable on species richness at four grain sizes (0.0625, 1, 25 and 225m(2)). Results: Species richness was mainly affected by position along a precipitation gradient and overall plant density, and to a lesser extent by habitat heterogeneity. It was also significantly affected by patch area and patch isolation, but only for small grain sizes. The contribution of each explanatory variable to explained variance in species richness varied with grain size, i.e. scale-dependent. The influence of geographic position and habitat heterogeneity on species richness increased with grain size, while the influence of plant density decreased with grain size. Main conclusions: Species richness is determined by the combined effect of several scale-dependent determinants. Ability to detect an effect and effect size of each determinant varies with the scale (grain size) at which it is measured. The combination of a multi-factorial approach and multi-scale sampling reveals that conclusions drawn from studies that ignore these dimensions are restricted and potentially misleading.}, language = {en} } @article{SchiffersTielboergerTietjenetal.2011, author = {Schiffers, Katja and Tielboerger, Katja and Tietjen, Britta and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Root plasticity buffers competition among plants theory meets experimental data}, series = {Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {92}, journal = {Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0012-9658}, pages = {610 -- 620}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Morphological plasticity is a striking characteristic of plants in natural communities. In the context of foraging behavior particularly, root plasticity has been documented for numerous species. Root plasticity is known to mitigate competitive interactions by reducing the overlap of the individuals' rhizospheres. But despite its obvious effect on resource acquisition, plasticity has been generally neglected in previous empirical and theoretical studies estimating interaction intensity among plants. In this study, we developed a semi-mechanistic model that addresses this shortcoming by introducing the idea of compensatory growth into the classical-zone-of influence (ZOI) and field-of-neighborhood (FON) approaches. The model parameters describing the belowground plastic sphere of influence (PSI) were parameterized using data from an accompanying field experiment. Measurements of the uptake of a stable nutrient analogue at distinct distances to the neighboring plants showed that the study species responded plastically to belowground competition by avoiding overlap of individuals' rhizospheres. An unexpected finding was that the sphere of influence of the study species Bromus hordeaceus could be best described by a unimodal function of distance to the plant's center and not with a continuously decreasing function as commonly assumed. We employed the parameterized model to investigate the interplay between plasticity and two other important factors determining the intensity of competitive interactions: overall plant density and the distribution of individuals in space. The simulation results confirm that the reduction of competition intensity due to morphological plasticity strongly depends on the spatial structure of the competitive environment. We advocate the use of semi-mechanistic simulations that explicitly consider morphological plasticity to improve our mechanistic understanding of plant interactions.}, language = {en} } @article{MayGrimmJeltsch2009, author = {May, Felix and Grimm, Volker and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Reversed effects of grazing on plant diversity : the role of below-ground competition and size symmetry}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17724.x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Grazing is known as one of the key factors for diversity and community composition in grassland ecosystems, but the response of plant communities towards grazing varies remarkably between sites with different environmental conditions. It is generally accepted that grazing increases plant diversity in productive environments, while it tends to reduce diversity in unproductive habitats (grazing reversal hypothesis). Despite empirical evidence for this pattern the mechanistic link between modes of plant-plant competition and grazing response at the community level still remains poorly understood. Root-competition in particular has rarely been included in theoretical studies, although it has been hypothesized that variations in productivity and grazing regime can alter the relative importance of shoot- and root-competition. We therefore developed an individual-based model based on plant functional traits to investigate the response of a grassland community towards grazing. Models of different complexity, either incorporating only shoot competition or with distinct shoot- and root-competition, were used to study the interactive effects of grazing, resource availability, and the mode of competition (size-symmetric or asymmetric). The pattern predicted by the grazing reversal hypothesis (GRH) can only be explained by our model if shoot- and root-competition are explicitly considered and if size asymmetry of above- and symmetry of below-ground competition is assumed. For this scenario, the model additionally reproduced empirically observed plant trait responses: erect and large plant functional types (PFTs) dominated without grazing, while frequent grazing favoured small PFTs with a rosette growth form. We conclude that interactions between shoot- and root-competition and size symmetry/asymmetry of plant-plant interactions are crucial in order to understand grazing response under different habitat productivities. Our results suggest that future empirical trait surveys in grassland communities should include root traits, which have been largely ignored in previous studies, in order to improve predictions of plants" responses to grazing.}, language = {en} } @article{MoloneyHolzapfelTielboergeretal.2009, author = {Moloney, Kirk A. and Holzapfel, Claus and Tielb{\"o}rger, Katja and Jeltsch, Florian and Schurr, Frank Martin}, title = {Rethinking the common garden in invasion research}, issn = {1433-8319}, doi = {10.1016/j.ppees.2009.05.002}, year = {2009}, abstract = {In common garden experiments, a number of genotypes are raised in a common environment in order to quantify the genetic component of phenotypic variation. Common gardens are thus ideally suited for disentangling how genetic and environmental factors contribute to the success of invasive species in their new non-native range. Although common garden experiments are increasingly employed in the study of invasive species, there has been little discussion about how these experiments should be designed for greatest utility. We argue that this has delayed progress in developing a general theory of invasion biology. We suggest a minimum optimal design (MOD) for common garden studies that target the ecological and evolutionary processes leading to phenotypic differentiation between native and invasive ranges. This involves four elements: (A) multiple, strategically sited garden locations, involving at the very least four gardens (2 in the native range and 2 in the invaded range); (B) careful consideration of the genetic design of the experiment; (C) standardization of experimental protocols across all gardens; and (D) care to ensure the biosafety of the experiment. Our understanding of the evolutionary ecology of biological invasions will be greatly enhanced by common garden studies, if and only if they are designed in a more systematic fashion, incorporating at the very least the MOD suggested here.}, language = {en} } @misc{WeiseAugeBaessleretal.2020, author = {Weise, Hanna and Auge, Harald and Baessler, Cornelia and B{\"a}rlund, Ilona and Bennett, Elena M. and Berger, Uta and Bohn, Friedrich and Bonn, Aletta and Borchardt, Dietrich and Brand, Fridolin and Jeltsch, Florian and Joshi, Jasmin Radha and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Resilience trinity}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {4}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51528}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515284}, pages = {14}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Ensuring ecosystem resilience is an intuitive approach to safeguard the functioning of ecosystems and hence the future provisioning of ecosystem services (ES). However, resilience is a multi-faceted concept that is difficult to operationalize. Focusing on resilience mechanisms, such as diversity, network architectures or adaptive capacity, has recently been suggested as means to operationalize resilience. Still, the focus on mechanisms is not specific enough. We suggest a conceptual framework, resilience trinity, to facilitate management based on resilience mechanisms in three distinctive decision contexts and time-horizons: 1) reactive, when there is an imminent threat to ES resilience and a high pressure to act, 2) adjustive, when the threat is known in general but there is still time to adapt management and 3) provident, when time horizons are very long and the nature of the threats is uncertain, leading to a low willingness to act. Resilience has different interpretations and implications at these different time horizons, which also prevail in different disciplines. Social ecology, ecology and engineering are often implicitly focussing on provident, adjustive or reactive resilience, respectively, but these different notions of resilience and their corresponding social, ecological and economic tradeoffs need to be reconciled. Otherwise, we keep risking unintended consequences of reactive actions, or shying away from provident action because of uncertainties that cannot be reduced. The suggested trinity of time horizons and their decision contexts could help ensuring that longer-term management actions are not missed while urgent threats to ES are given priority.}, language = {en} } @article{WeiseAugeBaessleretal.2020, author = {Weise, Hanna and Auge, Harald and Baessler, Cornelia and B{\"a}rlund, Ilona and Bennett, Elena M. and Berger, Uta and Bohn, Friedrich and Bonn, Aletta and Borchardt, Dietrich and Brand, Fridolin and Jeltsch, Florian and Joshi, Jasmin Radha and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Resilience trinity}, series = {Oikos}, volume = {129}, journal = {Oikos}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/oik.07213}, pages = {445 -- 456}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Ensuring ecosystem resilience is an intuitive approach to safeguard the functioning of ecosystems and hence the future provisioning of ecosystem services (ES). However, resilience is a multi-faceted concept that is difficult to operationalize. Focusing on resilience mechanisms, such as diversity, network architectures or adaptive capacity, has recently been suggested as means to operationalize resilience. Still, the focus on mechanisms is not specific enough. We suggest a conceptual framework, resilience trinity, to facilitate management based on resilience mechanisms in three distinctive decision contexts and time-horizons: 1) reactive, when there is an imminent threat to ES resilience and a high pressure to act, 2) adjustive, when the threat is known in general but there is still time to adapt management and 3) provident, when time horizons are very long and the nature of the threats is uncertain, leading to a low willingness to act. Resilience has different interpretations and implications at these different time horizons, which also prevail in different disciplines. Social ecology, ecology and engineering are often implicitly focussing on provident, adjustive or reactive resilience, respectively, but these different notions of resilience and their corresponding social, ecological and economic tradeoffs need to be reconciled. Otherwise, we keep risking unintended consequences of reactive actions, or shying away from provident action because of uncertainties that cannot be reduced. The suggested trinity of time horizons and their decision contexts could help ensuring that longer-term management actions are not missed while urgent threats to ES are given priority.}, language = {en} } @article{KoechyMathajJeltschetal.2008, author = {K{\"o}chy, Martin and Mathaj, Martin and Jeltsch, Florian and Malkinson, Dan}, title = {Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-008-0048-6}, year = {2008}, abstract = {Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future.}, language = {en} } @misc{KoechyMathajJeltschetal.2008, author = {K{\"o}chy, Martin and Mathaj, Martin and Jeltsch, Florian and Malkinson, Dan}, title = {Resilience of stocking capacity to changing climate in arid to Mediterranean landscapes}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-18720}, year = {2008}, abstract = {Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future.}, language = {en} } @misc{SynodinosEldridgeGeissleretal.2018, author = {Synodinos, Alexios D. and Eldridge, David and Geißler, Katja and Jeltsch, Florian and Lohmann, Dirk and Midgley, Guy and Blaum, Niels}, title = {Remotely sensed canopy height reveals three pantropical ecosystem states}, series = {Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {99}, journal = {Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, number = {1}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0012-9658}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.1997}, pages = {231 -- 234}, year = {2018}, language = {en} } @article{BurkartAlslebenLachmuthetal.2010, author = {Burkart, Michael and Alsleben, Katja and Lachmuth, Susanne and Schumacher, Juliane and Hofmann, Ralf and Jeltsch, Florian and Schurr, Frank Martin}, title = {Recruitment requirements of the rare and threatened Juncus atratus}, issn = {0367-2530}, doi = {10.1016/j.flora.2009.08.003}, year = {2010}, abstract = {The long-term persistence of populations and species depends on the successful recruitment of individuals. The generative recruitment of plants may be limited by a lack of suitable germination and establishment conditions. Establishment limitation may especially be caused by the competitive effect of surrounding dense vegetation, which is believed to restrict the recruitment success of many plant species to small open patches ('safe sites'). We conducted experiments to clarify the roles of germination and seedling establishment as limiting processes in the recruitment of Juncus atratus Krock., a rare and threatened herbaceous perennial river corridor plant in Central Europe. Light intensity had a positive effect on germination. However, some seedlings emerged even in total darkness and the germination rate at 1\% light intensity was more than half of that at 60\% light intensity. Seedling establishment in the field after 10 weeks was 30\% on bare ground, but it was close to zero in grassland. Establishment in the growth chamber after 8 weeks was close to 75\% for seedlings that germinated underwater, but only about 35\% for seedlings that germinated afloat. Furthermore, establishment decreased with flooding duration on bare ground, but increased with flooding duration in grassland. These data indicate that establishment, rather than germination, is a critical life stage in Central European populations off. atratus. They furthermore indicate that the competition of surrounding vegetation for water limits seedling establishment under field conditions without flooding, largely restricting establishment success to bare ground habitats. In contrast, grassland is more suitable for the recruitment off. atratus than bare ground under prolonged flooding. Grassland may facilitate the establishment off. atratus seedlings during long- lasting floods by supplying oxygen to the soil through aerenchyma. The shift from competition to facilitation in grassland occurred after 30 days of flooding, i.e. within the ontogeny of individual plants. The specific recruitment requirements off. arrows may be a main cause of its rarity in modern Central Europe. In order to prevent regional extinction off. atratus, we suggest maintaining or re-establishing natural hydrodynamics in the species' habitats.}, language = {en} } @article{TomowskiLozadaGobilardJeltschetal.2023, author = {Tomowski, Maxi and Lozada-Gobilard, Sissi Donna and Jeltsch, Florian and Tiedemann, Ralph}, title = {Recruitment and migration patterns reveal a key role for seed banks in the meta-population dynamics of an aquatic plant}, series = {Scientific reports}, volume = {13}, journal = {Scientific reports}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer Nature}, address = {London}, issn = {2045-2322}, doi = {10.1038/s41598-023-37974-5}, pages = {16}, year = {2023}, abstract = {Progressive habitat fragmentation threatens plant species with narrow habitat requirements. While local environmental conditions define population growth rates and recruitment success at the patch level, dispersal is critical for population viability at the landscape scale. Identifying the dynamics of plant meta-populations is often confounded by the uncertainty about soil-stored population compartments. We combined a landscape-scale assessment of an amphibious plant's population structure with measurements of dispersal complexity in time to track dispersal and putative shifts in functional connectivity. Using 13 microsatellite markers, we analyzed the genetic structure of extant Oenanthe aquatica populations and their soil seed banks in a kettle hole system to uncover hidden connectivity among populations in time and space. Considerable spatial genetic structure and isolation-by-distance suggest limited gene flow between sites. Spatial isolation and patch size showed minor effects on genetic diversity. Genetic similarity found among extant populations and their seed banks suggests increased local recruitment, despite some evidence of migration and recent colonization. Results indicate stepping-stone dispersal across adjacent populations. Among permanent and ephemeral demes the resulting meta-population demography could be determined by source-sink dynamics. Overall, these spatiotemporal connectivity patterns support mainland-island dynamics in our system, highlighting the importance of persistent seed banks as enduring sources of genetic diversity.}, language = {en} } @article{TielboergerKadmonMuelleretal.2000, author = {Tielb{\"o}rger, Katja and Kadmon, Ronen and M{\"u}ller, Monika and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Raum-zeitliche Populationsdynamik von einj{\"a}hrigen W{\"u}stenpflanzen}, year = {2000}, language = {de} } @article{PagelAndersonCrameretal.2014, author = {Pagel, J{\"o}rn and Anderson, Barbara J. and Cramer, Wolfgang and Fox, Richard and Jeltsch, Florian and Roy, David B. and Thomas, Chris D. and Schurr, Frank Martin}, title = {Quantifying range-wide variation in population trends from local abundance surveys and widespread opportunistic occurrence records}, series = {Methods in ecology and evolution : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, volume = {5}, journal = {Methods in ecology and evolution : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, number = {8}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2041-210X}, doi = {10.1111/2041-210X.12221}, pages = {751 -- 760}, year = {2014}, abstract = {2. We present a hierarchical model that integrates observations from multiple sources to estimate spatio-temporal abundance trends. The model links annual population densities on a spatial grid to both long-term count data and to opportunistic occurrence records from a citizen science programme. Specific observation models for both data types explicitly account for differences in data structure and quality. 3. We test this novel method in a virtual study with simulated data and apply it to the estimation of abundance dynamics across the range of a butterfly species (Pyronia tithonus) in Great Britain between 1985 and 2004. The application to simulated and real data demonstrates how the hierarchical model structure accommodates various sources of uncertainty which occur at different stages of the link between observational data and the modelled abundance, thereby it accounts for these uncertainties in the inference of abundance variations. 4. We show that by using hierarchical observation models that integrate different types of commonly available data sources, we can improve the estimates of variation in species abundances across space and time. This will improve our ability to detect regional trends and can also enhance the empirical basis for understanding range dynamics.}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschHansenTackmannetal.2004, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Hansen, Frank and Tackmann, K. and Staubach, C. and Thulke, Hans-Hermann}, title = {Processes leading to a spatial aggregation of Echinococcus multilocularis in its natural intermediate host Microtus arvalis}, year = {2004}, abstract = {The small fox tapeworm (Echinococcus multilocularis) shows a heterogeneous spatial distribution in the intermediate host (Microtus arvalis). To identify the ecological processes responsible for this heterogeneity, we developed a spatially explicit simulation model. The model combines individual-based (foxes, Vulpes vulpes) and grid- based (voles) techniques to simulate the infections in both intermediate and definite host. If host populations are homogeneously mixed, the model reproduces field data for parasite prevalence only for a limited number of parameter combinations. As ecological parameters inevitably vary to a certain degree, we discarded the homogeneous mixing model as insufficient to gain insight into the ecology of the fox tapeworm cycle. We analysed five different model scenarios, each focussing on an ecological process that might be responsible for the heterogeneous spatial distribution of E multilocularis in the intermediate host. Field studies revealed that the prevalence ratio between intermediate and definite host remains stable over a wide range of ecological conditions. Thus, by varying the parameters in simulation experiments, we used the robustness of the agreement between field data and model output as quality criterion for the five scenarios. Only one of the five scenarios was found to reproduce the prevalence ratio over a sufficient range of parameter combinations. In the accentuated scenario most tapeworm eggs die due to bad environmental conditions before they cause infections in the intermediate host. This scenario is supported by the known sensitivity of tapeworm eggs to high temperatures and dry conditions. The identified process is likely to lead to a heterogeneous availability of infective eggs and thus to a clumped distribution of infected intermediate hosts. In conclusion, areas with humid conditions and low temperatures must be pointed out as high risk areas for human exposure to E. multilocularis eggs as well. (C) 2004 on behalf of Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved}, language = {en} } @article{LohmannTietjenBlaumetal.2014, author = {Lohmann, Dirk and Tietjen, Britta and Blaum, Niels and Joubert, David Francois and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Prescribed fire as a tool for managing shrub encroachment in semi-arid savanna rangelands}, series = {Journal of arid environments}, volume = {107}, journal = {Journal of arid environments}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {London}, issn = {0140-1963}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaridenv.2014.04.003}, pages = {49 -- 56}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Savanna rangelands worldwide are threatened by shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase of woody plant species at the cost of perennial grasses, causing a strong decline in the productivity of domestic livestock production. Although recent studies indicate that fire might be of great importance for semi-arid and arid savanna dynamics, it is largely not applied in the management of semi-arid rangelands especially with regard to woody plant control. We used the eco-hydrological savanna model EcoHyD to simulate the effects of different fire management strategies on semi-arid savanna vegetation and to assess their longterm suitability for semi-arid rangeland management. Simulation results show that prescribed fires, timed to kill tree seedlings prevented shrub encroachment for a broad range of livestock densities while the possible maximum long-term cattle densities on the simulated semi-arid rangeland in Namibia increased by more than 30\%. However, when grazing intensity was too high, fire management failed in preventing shrub encroachment. Our findings indicate that with regard to fire management a clear distinction between mesic and more arid savannas is necessary: While the frequency of fires is of relevance for mesic savannas, we recommend a fire management focussing on the timing of fire for semi-arid and arid savannas. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{WichmannDeanJeltsch2006, author = {Wichmann, Matthias and Dean, W. R. J. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Predicting the breeding success of large raptors in arid southern Africa : a first assessment}, year = {2006}, abstract = {Raptors are often priorities for conservation efforts and breeding success is a target measure for assessing their conservation status. The breeding success of large raptors in and southern Africa is thought to be higher in years of high rainfall. While this correlation has been found in several studies, it has not yet been shown for data from a wider geographical area. In conservation research, it is important to explore the differences between spatially- separated populations to estimate and to compare their conservation status, and to deduce specific management strategies. Using a theoretical approach, we develop a simplistic model to explain the breeding success-rainfall relationship in large African raptors at larger spatial scales. Secondly, we validate this model and we show that the inclusion of field data leads to consistent predictions. In particular, we recommend that the average size of the 'effective territory' should be included in the relationship between annual rainfall and breeding success of raptors in and southern Africa. Accordingly, we suggest that breeding success is a function of precipitation and inter- nest distance. We present a new measure of territory quality depending on rainfall and territory size. We suggest that our model provides a useful first approach to assess breeding success in large raptors of and southern Africa. However, we strongly emphasise the need to gather more data to further verify our model. A general problem in conservation research is to compare the status of populations assessed in different study areas under changing environmental conditions. Our simplistic approach indicates that this problem can be overcome by using a weighted evaluation of a target measure (i.e. breeding success), taking regional differences into account}, language = {en} } @article{TielboergerKadmonMuelleretal.2000, author = {Tielb{\"o}rger, Katja and Kadmon, Ronen and M{\"u}ller, Monika and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Populationsdynamische Funktionen von Ausbreitung und Dormanz}, year = {2000}, language = {de} } @article{BergholzSittelRistowetal.2022, author = {Bergholz, Kolja and Sittel, Lara-Pauline and Ristow, Michael and Jeltsch, Florian and Weiss, Lina}, title = {Pollinator guilds respond contrastingly at different scales to landscape parameters of land-use intensity}, series = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {12}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.8708}, pages = {11}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Land-use intensification is the main factor for the catastrophic decline of insect pollinators. However, land-use intensification includes multiple processes that act across various scales and should affect pollinator guilds differently depending on their ecology. We aimed to reveal how two main pollinator guilds, wild bees and hoverflies, respond to different land-use intensification measures, that is, arable field cover (AFC), landscape heterogeneity (LH), and functional flower composition of local plant communities as a measure of habitat quality. We sampled wild bees and hoverflies on 22 dry grassland sites within a highly intensified landscape (NE Germany) within three campaigns using pan traps. We estimated AFC and LH on consecutive radii (60-3000 m) around the dry grassland sites and estimated the local functional flower composition. Wild bee species richness and abundance was positively affected by LH and negatively by AFC at small scales (140-400 m). In contrast, hoverflies were positively affected by AFC and negatively by LH at larger scales (500-3000 m), where both landscape parameters were negatively correlated to each other. At small spatial scales, though, LH had a positive effect on hoverfly abundance. Functional flower diversity had no positive effect on pollinators, but conspicuous flowers seem to attract abundance of hoverflies. In conclusion, landscape parameters contrarily affect two pollinator guilds at different scales. The correlation of landscape parameters may influence the observed relationships between landscape parameters and pollinators. Hence, effects of land-use intensification seem to be highly landscape-specific.}, language = {en} } @article{BergholzSittelRistowetal.2022, author = {Bergholz, Kolja and Sittel, Lara-Pauline and Ristow, Michael and Jeltsch, Florian and Weiß, Lina}, title = {Pollinator guilds respond contrastingly at different scales to landscape parameters of land-use intensity}, series = {Ecology and Evolution}, volume = {12}, journal = {Ecology and Evolution}, number = {3}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Inc.}, address = {Hoboken (New Jersey)}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.8708}, pages = {11}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Land-use intensification is the main factor for the catastrophic decline of insect pollinators. However, land-use intensification includes multiple processes that act across various scales and should affect pollinator guilds differently depending on their ecology. We aimed to reveal how two main pollinator guilds, wild bees and hoverflies, respond to different land-use intensification measures, that is, arable field cover (AFC), landscape heterogeneity (LH), and functional flower composition of local plant communities as a measure of habitat quality. We sampled wild bees and hoverflies on 22 dry grassland sites within a highly intensified landscape (NE Germany) within three campaigns using pan traps. We estimated AFC and LH on consecutive radii (60-3000 m) around the dry grassland sites and estimated the local functional flower composition. Wild bee species richness and abundance was positively affected by LH and negatively by AFC at small scales (140-400 m). In contrast, hoverflies were positively affected by AFC and negatively by LH at larger scales (500-3000 m), where both landscape parameters were negatively correlated to each other. At small spatial scales, though, LH had a positive effect on hoverfly abundance. Functional flower diversity had no positive effect on pollinators, but conspicuous flowers seem to attract abundance of hoverflies. In conclusion, landscape parameters contrarily affect two pollinator guilds at different scales. The correlation of landscape parameters may influence the observed relationships between landscape parameters and pollinators. Hence, effects of land-use intensification seem to be highly landscape-specific.}, language = {en} } @misc{BergholzSittelRistowetal.2022, author = {Bergholz, Kolja and Sittel, Lara-Pauline and Ristow, Michael and Jeltsch, Florian and Weiß, Lina}, title = {Pollinator guilds respond contrastingly at different scales to landscape parameters of land-use intensity}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1298}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-57730}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-577307}, pages = {11}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Land-use intensification is the main factor for the catastrophic decline of insect pollinators. However, land-use intensification includes multiple processes that act across various scales and should affect pollinator guilds differently depending on their ecology. We aimed to reveal how two main pollinator guilds, wild bees and hoverflies, respond to different land-use intensification measures, that is, arable field cover (AFC), landscape heterogeneity (LH), and functional flower composition of local plant communities as a measure of habitat quality. We sampled wild bees and hoverflies on 22 dry grassland sites within a highly intensified landscape (NE Germany) within three campaigns using pan traps. We estimated AFC and LH on consecutive radii (60-3000 m) around the dry grassland sites and estimated the local functional flower composition. Wild bee species richness and abundance was positively affected by LH and negatively by AFC at small scales (140-400 m). In contrast, hoverflies were positively affected by AFC and negatively by LH at larger scales (500-3000 m), where both landscape parameters were negatively correlated to each other. At small spatial scales, though, LH had a positive effect on hoverfly abundance. Functional flower diversity had no positive effect on pollinators, but conspicuous flowers seem to attract abundance of hoverflies. In conclusion, landscape parameters contrarily affect two pollinator guilds at different scales. The correlation of landscape parameters may influence the observed relationships between landscape parameters and pollinators. Hence, effects of land-use intensification seem to be highly landscape-specific.}, language = {en} } @article{MayGiladiRistowetal.2013, author = {May, Felix and Giladi, Itamar and Ristow, Michael and Ziv, Yaron and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Plant functional traits and community assembly along interacting gradients of productivity and fragmentation}, series = {Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics}, volume = {15}, journal = {Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics}, number = {6}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Jena}, issn = {1433-8319}, doi = {10.1016/j.ppees.2013.08.002}, pages = {304 -- 318}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Quantifying the association of plant functional traits to environmental gradients is a promising approach for understanding and projecting community responses to land use and climatic changes. Although habitat fragmentation and climate are expected to affect plant communities interactively, there is a lack of empirical studies addressing trait associations to fragmentation in different climatic regimes. In this study, we analyse data on the key functional traits: specific leaf area (SLA), plant height, seed mass and seed number. First, we assess the evidence for the community assembly mechanisms habitat filtering and competition at different spatial scales, using several null-models and a comprehensive set of community-level trait convergence and divergence indices. Second, we analyse the association of community-mean traits with patch area and connectivity along a south-north productivity gradient. We found clear evidence for trait convergence due to habitat filtering. In contrast, the evidence for trait divergence due to competition fundamentally depended on the null-model used. When the null-model controlled for habitat filtering, there was only evidence for trait divergence at the smallest sampling scale (0.25 m x 0.25 m). All traits varied significantly along the S-N productivity gradient. While plant height and SLA were consistently associated with fragmentation, the association of seed mass and seed number with fragmentation changed along the S-N gradient. Our findings indicate trait convergence due to drought stress in the arid sites and due to higher productivity in the mesic sites. The association of plant traits to fragmentation is likely driven by increased colonization ability in small and/or isolated patches (plant height, seed number) or increased persistence ability in isolated patches (seed mass). Our study provides the first empirical test of trait associations with fragmentation along a productivity gradient. We conclude that it is crucial to study the interactive effects of different ecological drivers on plant functional traits.}, language = {en} } @article{PfeiferSchatzPicoetal.2009, author = {Pfeifer, Marion and Schatz, Bertrand and Pic{\´o}, F. Xavier and Passalacqua, Nicodemo G. and Fay, Michael F. and Carey, Pete D. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Phylogeography and genetic structure of the orchid "Himantoglossum hircinum" (L.) Spreng. across its European central-marginal gradient}, issn = {0305-0270}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2699.2009.02168.x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Aim This study aims to link demographic traits and post-glacial recolonization processes with genetic traits in Himantoglossum hircinum (L.) Spreng (Orchidaceae), and to test the implications of the central-marginal concept (CMC) in Europe. Location Twenty sites covering the entire European distribution range of this species. Methods We employed amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers and performed a plastid microsatellite survey to assess genetic variation in 20 populations of H. hircinum located along central-marginal gradients. We measured demographic traits to assess population fitness along geographical gradients and to test for correlations between demographic traits and genetic diversity. We used genetic diversity indices and analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) to test hypotheses of reduced genetic diversity and increased genetic differentiation and isolation from central to peripheral sites. We used Bayesian simulations to analyse genetic relationships among populations. Results Genetic diversity decreased significantly with increasing latitudinal and longitudinal distance from the distribution centre when excluding outlying populations. The AMOVA revealed significant genetic differentiation among populations (F-ST = 0.146) and an increase in genetic differentiation from the centre of the geographical range to the margins (except for the Atlantic group). Population fitness, expressed as the ratio N-R/N, decreased significantly with increasing latitudinal distance from the distribution centre. Flower production was lower in most eastern peripheral sites. The geographical distribution of microsatellite haplotypes suggests post-glacial range expansion along three major migratory pathways, as also supported by individual membership fractions in six ancestral genetic clusters (C1-C6). No correlations between genetic diversity (e.g. diversity indices, haplotype frequency) and population demographic traits were detected. Main conclusions Reduced genetic diversity and haplotype frequency in H. hircinum at marginal sites reflect historical range expansions. Spatial variation in demographic traits could not explain genetic diversity patterns. For those sites that did not fit into the CMC, the genetic pattern is probably masked by other factors directly affecting either demography or population genetic structure. These include post-glacial recolonization patterns and changes in habitat suitability due to climate change at the northern periphery. Our findings emphasize the importance of distinguishing historical effects from those caused by geographical variation in population demography of species when studying evolutionary and ecological processes at the range margins under global change.}, language = {en} } @article{GrimmRevillaBergeretal.2005, author = {Grimm, Volker and Revilla, Eloy and Berger, Uta and Jeltsch, Florian and Mooij, Wolf M. and Railsback, Steven Floyd and Thulke, Hans-Hermann and Weiner, Jacob and Wiegand, Thorsten and DeAngelis, Donald L.}, title = {Pattern-oriented modeling of agend-based complex systems : lessons from ecology}, year = {2005}, abstract = {Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity}, language = {en} } @article{SchibalskiKoernerMaieretal.2018, author = {Schibalski, Anett and K{\"o}rner, Katrin and Maier, Martin and Jeltsch, Florian and Schr{\"o}der, Boris}, title = {Novel model coupling approach for resilience analysis of coastal plant communities}, series = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {28}, journal = {Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, number = {6}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1051-0761}, doi = {10.1002/eap.1758}, pages = {1640 -- 1654}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Resilience is a major research focus covering a wide range of topics from biodiversity conservation to ecosystem (service) management. Model simulations can assess the resilience of, for example, plant species, measured as the return time to conditions prior to a disturbance. This requires process-based models (PBM) that implement relevant processes such as regeneration and reproduction and thus successfully reproduce transient dynamics after disturbances. Such models are often complex and thus limited to either short-term or small-scale applications, whereas many research questions require species predictions across larger spatial and temporal scales. We suggest a framework to couple a PBM and a statistical species distribution model (SDM), which transfers the results of a resilience analysis by the PBM to SDM predictions. The resulting hybrid model combines the advantages of both approaches: the convenient applicability of SDMs and the relevant process detail of PBMs in abrupt environmental change situations. First, we simulate dynamic responses of species communities to a disturbance event with a PBM. We aggregate the response behavior in two resilience metrics: return time and amplitude of the response peak. These metrics are then used to complement long-term SDM projections with dynamic short-term responses to disturbance. To illustrate our framework, we investigate the effect of abrupt short-term groundwater level and salinity changes on coastal vegetation at the German Baltic Sea. We found two example species to be largely resilient, and, consequently, modifications of SDM predictions consisted mostly of smoothing out peaks in the occurrence probability that were not confirmed by the PBM. Discrepancies between SDM- and PBM-predicted species responses were caused by community dynamics simulated in the PBM and absent from the SDM. Although demonstrated with boosted regression trees (SDM) and an existing individual-based model, IBC-grass (PBM), our flexible framework can easily be applied to other PBM and SDM types, as well as other definitions of short-term disturbances or long-term trends of environmental change. Thus, our framework allows accounting for biological feedbacks in the response to short- and long-term environmental changes as a major advancement in predictive vegetation modeling.}, language = {en} } @inproceedings{SapirRoticsKaatzetal.2013, author = {Sapir, N. and Rotics, S. and Kaatz, M. and Davidson, S. and Zurell, Damaris and Eggers, U. and Jeltsch, Florian and Nathan, R. and Wikelski, M.}, title = {Multi-year tracking of white storks (Ciconia ciconia) how the environment shapes the movement and behavior of a soaring-gliding inter-continental migrant}, series = {Integrative and comparative biology}, volume = {53}, booktitle = {Integrative and comparative biology}, number = {3}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Cary}, issn = {1540-7063}, pages = {E189 -- E189}, year = {2013}, language = {en} } @article{TuckerBoehningGaeseFaganetal.2018, author = {Tucker, Marlee A. and Boehning-Gaese, Katrin and Fagan, William F. and Fryxell, John M. and Van Moorter, Bram and Alberts, Susan C. and Ali, Abdullahi H. and Allen, Andrew M. and Attias, Nina and Avgar, Tal and Bartlam-Brooks, Hattie and Bayarbaatar, Buuveibaatar and Belant, Jerrold L. and Bertassoni, Alessandra and Beyer, Dean and Bidner, Laura and van Beest, Floris M. and Blake, Stephen and Blaum, Niels and Bracis, Chloe and Brown, Danielle and de Bruyn, P. J. Nico and Cagnacci, Francesca and Calabrese, Justin M. and Camilo-Alves, Constanca and Chamaille-Jammes, Simon and Chiaradia, Andre and Davidson, Sarah C. and Dennis, Todd and DeStefano, Stephen and Diefenbach, Duane and Douglas-Hamilton, Iain and Fennessy, Julian and Fichtel, Claudia and Fiedler, Wolfgang and Fischer, Christina and Fischhoff, Ilya and Fleming, Christen H. and Ford, Adam T. and Fritz, Susanne A. and Gehr, Benedikt and Goheen, Jacob R. and Gurarie, Eliezer and Hebblewhite, Mark and Heurich, Marco and Hewison, A. J. Mark and Hof, Christian and Hurme, Edward and Isbell, Lynne A. and Janssen, Rene and Jeltsch, Florian and Kaczensky, Petra and Kane, Adam and Kappeler, Peter M. and Kauffman, Matthew and Kays, Roland and Kimuyu, Duncan and Koch, Flavia and Kranstauber, Bart and LaPoint, Scott and Leimgruber, Peter and Linnell, John D. C. and Lopez-Lopez, Pascual and Markham, A. Catherine and Mattisson, Jenny and Medici, Emilia Patricia and Mellone, Ugo and Merrill, Evelyn and Mourao, Guilherme de Miranda and Morato, Ronaldo G. and Morellet, Nicolas and Morrison, Thomas A. and Diaz-Munoz, Samuel L. and Mysterud, Atle and Nandintsetseg, Dejid and Nathan, Ran and Niamir, Aidin and Odden, John and Oliveira-Santos, Luiz Gustavo R. and Olson, Kirk A. and Patterson, Bruce D. and de Paula, Rogerio Cunha and Pedrotti, Luca and Reineking, Bjorn and Rimmler, Martin and Rogers, Tracey L. and Rolandsen, Christer Moe and Rosenberry, Christopher S. and Rubenstein, Daniel I. and Safi, Kamran and Said, Sonia and Sapir, Nir and Sawyer, Hall and Schmidt, Niels Martin and Selva, Nuria and Sergiel, Agnieszka and Shiilegdamba, Enkhtuvshin and Silva, Joao Paulo and Singh, Navinder and Solberg, Erling J. and Spiegel, Orr and Strand, Olav and Sundaresan, Siva and Ullmann, Wiebke and Voigt, Ulrich and Wall, Jake and Wattles, David and Wikelski, Martin and Wilmers, Christopher C. and Wilson, John W. and Wittemyer, George and Zieba, Filip and Zwijacz-Kozica, Tomasz and Mueller, Thomas}, title = {Moving in the Anthropocene}, series = {Science}, volume = {359}, journal = {Science}, number = {6374}, publisher = {American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0036-8075}, doi = {10.1126/science.aam9712}, pages = {466 -- 469}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission.}, language = {en} } @article{BuchmannSchurrNathanetal.2012, author = {Buchmann, Carsten M. and Schurr, Frank Martin and Nathan, Ran and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Movement upscaled - the importance of individual foraging movement for community response to habitat loss}, series = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, volume = {35}, journal = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, number = {5}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Malden}, issn = {0906-7590}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.06924.x}, pages = {436 -- 445}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Habitat loss poses a severe threat to biodiversity. While many studies yield valuable information on how specific species cope with such environmental modification, the mechanistic understanding of how interacting species or whole communities are affected by habitat loss is still poor. Individual movement plays a crucial role for the space use characteristics of species, since it determines how individuals perceive and use their heterogeneous environment. At the community level, it is therefore essential to include individual movement and how it is influenced by resource sharing into the investigation of consequences of habitat loss. To elucidate the effects of foraging movement on communities in face of habitat loss, we here apply a recently published spatially-explicit and individual-based model of home range formation. This approach allows predicting the individual size distribution (ISD) of mammal communities in simulation landscapes that vary in the amount of suitable habitat. We apply three fundamentally different foraging movement approaches (central place forager (CPF), patrolling forager (PF) and body mass dependent nomadic forager (BNF)). Results show that the efficiency of the different foraging strategies depends on body mass, which again affects community structure in face of habitat loss. CPF is only efficient for small animals, and therefore yields steep ISD exponents on which habitat loss has little effect (due to a movement limitation of body mass). PF and particularly BNF are more efficient for larger animals, resulting in less steep ISDs with higher mass maxima, both showing a threshold behaviour with regard to loss of suitable habitat. These findings represent a new way of explaining observed extinction thresholds, and therefore indicate the importance of individual space use characterized by physiology and behaviour, i.e. foraging movement, for communities and their response to habitat loss. Findings also indicate the necessity to incorporate the crucial role of movement into future conservation efforts of terrestrial communities.}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschTewsMoloney2004, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Tews, J{\"o}rg and Moloney, Kirk A.}, title = {Modelling seed dispersal in a variable environment : a case study of the fleshy-fruited savanna shrub Grewia flava}, year = {2004}, abstract = {In ecology much attention has been paid towards seed dispersal of fleshy-fruited plants, however, knowledge is lacking about the Iona-term demographic consequences of variation in dispersal distance and fruit removal rate, particularly given the natural variability of the environment the organism lives in. In this study we used a spatially explicit, two-level stochastic computer model to simulate population dynamics of a fleshy-fruited shrub living in the sub-canopy of solitary savanna trees. On the landscape level we implemented three realistic scenarios of savanna landscape dynamics for a period of 500 years with equal inter-annual mean of environmental variables. The first scenario is representative of a relatively constant environment with normal variability in precipitation, constant tree density and random tree recruitment pattern. The second and third scenarios represent positive auto-correlated, cyclic patterns with alternating phases of tree cover increase and decrease corresponding with favorable and unfavorable rain phases. Our simulation experiments show that when fruit removal rate is extremely low, population persistence is enhanced under relatively constant rain conditions, while alternating rain phases of the cyclic scenarios lead to a significant population decrease. This result confirms previous findings that periodically fluctuating environments may increase local extinction risk. However, when dispersal distance is a limiting factor (whilst removal rate was sufficiently high), tree clumps typically forming in wet phases of both cyclic scenarios compensated for the negative effect of low dispersal distances, while the constant scenario with random tree pattern and larger inter-tree distances resulted in a significant population decline. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved}, language = {en} } @article{ReegSchadPreussetal.2017, author = {Reeg, Jette and Schad, Thorsten and Preuss, Thomas G. and Solga, Andreas and K{\"o}rner, Katrin and Mihan, Christine and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Modelling direct and indirect effects of herbicides on non-target grassland communities}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {348}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.01.010}, pages = {44 -- 55}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Natural grassland communities are threatened by a variety of factors, such as climate change and increasing land use by mankind. The use of plant protection products (synthetic or organic) is mandatory in agricultural food production. To avoid adverse effects on natural grasslands within agricultural areas, synthetic plant protection products are strictly regulated in Europe. However, effects of herbicides on non-target terrestrial plants are primarily studied on the level of individual plants neglecting interactions between species. In our study, we aim to extrapolate individual-level effects to the population and community level by adapting an existing spatio-temporal, individual-based plant community model (IBC-grass). We analyse the effects of herbicide exposure for three different grassland communities: 1) representative field boundary community, 2) Calthion grassland community, and 3) Arrhenatheretalia grassland community. Our simulations show that herbicide depositions can have effects on non-target plant communities resulting from direct and indirect effects on population level. The effect extent depends not only on the distance to the field, but also on the specific plant community, its disturbance regime (cutting frequency, trampling and grazing intensity) and resource level. Mechanistic modelling approaches such as IBC-grass present a promising novel approach in transferring and extrapolating standardized pot experiments to community level and thereby bridging the gap between ecotoxicological testing (e.g. in the greenhouse) and protection goals referring to real world conditions.}, language = {en} } @article{WichmannGroeneveldJeltschetal.2005, author = {Wichmann, Matthias and Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Jeltsch, Florian and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaption : ecological buffering mechanism}, year = {2005}, language = {en} } @article{WichmannGroeneveldJeltschetal.2005, author = {Wichmann, Matthias and Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Jeltsch, Florian and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation : ecological buffering mechanisms}, issn = {0921-8181}, year = {2005}, abstract = {The predicted climate change causes deep concerns on the effects of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on species viability and, in turn, on biodiversity. Models of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provide a powerful tool to assess the risk of species extinction. However, most PVA models do not take into account the potential effects of behavioural adaptations. Organisms might adapt to new environmental situations and thereby mitigate negative effects of climate change. To demonstrate such mitigation effects, we use an existing PVA model describing a population of the tawny eagle (Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari. This model does not include behavioural adaptations. We develop a new model by assuming that the birds enlarge their average territory size to compensate for lower amounts of precipitation. Here, we found the predicted increase in risk of extinction due to climate change to be much lower than in the original model. However, this "buffering" of climate change by behavioural adaptation is not very effective in coping with increasing interannual variances. We refer to further examples of ecological "buffering mechanisms" from the literature and argue that possible buffering mechanisms should be given due consideration when the effects of climate change on biodiversity are to be predicted. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved}, language = {en} } @article{WiegandJeltschWard2004, author = {Wiegand, K. and Jeltsch, Florian and Ward, D.}, title = {Minimum recruitment frequency in plants with episodic recruitment}, year = {2004}, abstract = {There is concern about the lack of recruitment of Acacia trees in the Negev desert of Israel. We have developed three models to estimate the frequency of recruitment necessary for long-term population survival (i.e. positive average population growth for 1,000 years and <10\% probability of extinction). Two models assume purely episodic recruitment based on the general notion that recruitment in and environments is highly episodic. They differ in that the deterministic model investigates average dynamics while the stochastic model does not. Studies indicating that recruitment episodes in and environments have been overemphasized motivated the development of the third model. This semi-stochastic model simulates a mixture of continuous and episodic recruitment. Model analysis was done analytically for the deterministic model and via running model simulations for the stochastic and semi-stochastic models. The deterministic and stochastic models predict that, on average, 2.2 and 3.7 recruitment events per century, respectively, are necessary to sustain the population. According to the semi-stochastic model, 1.6 large recruitment events per century and an annual probability of 50\% that a small recruitment event occurs are needed. A consequence of purely episodic recruitment is that all recruitment episodes produce extremely large numbers of recruits (i.e. at odds with field observations), an evaluation that holds even when considering that rare events must be large. Thus, the semi- stochastic model appears to be the most realistic model. Comparing the prediction of the semi-stochastic model to field observations in the Negev desert shows that the absence of observations of extremely large recruitment events is no reason for concern. However, the almost complete absence of small recruitment events is a serious reason for concern. The lack of recruitment may be due to decreased densities of large mammalian herbivores and might be further exacerbated by possible changes in climate, both in terms of average precipitation and the temporal distribution of rain}, language = {en} } @article{MayGiladiRistowetal.2013, author = {May, Felix and Giladi, Itamar and Ristow, Michael and Ziv, Yaron and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Metacommunity, mainland-island system or island communities? : assessing the regional dynamics of plant communities in a fragmented landscape}, series = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, volume = {36}, journal = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, number = {7}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0906-7590}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2012.07793.x}, pages = {842 -- 853}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Understanding the regional dynamics of plant communities is crucial for predicting the response of plant diversity to habitat fragmentation. However, for fragmented landscapes the importance of regional processes, such as seed dispersal among isolated habitat patches, has been controversially debated. Due to the stochasticity and rarity of among-patch dispersal and colonization events, we still lack a quantitative understanding of the consequences of these processes at the landscape-scale. In this study, we used extensive field data from a fragmented, semi-arid landscape in Israel to parameterize a multi-species incidence-function model. This model simulates species occupancy pattern based on patch areas and habitat configuration and explicitly considers the locations and the shapes of habitat patches for the derivation of patch connectivity. We implemented an approximate Bayesian computation approach for parameter inference and uncertainty assessment. We tested which of the three types of regional dynamics - the metacommunity, the mainland-island, or the island communities type - best represents the community dynamics in the study area and applied the simulation model to estimate the extinction debt in the investigated landscape. We found that the regional dynamics in the patch-matrix study landscape is best represented as a system of highly isolated island' communities with low rates of propagule exchange among habitat patches and consequently low colonization rates in local communities. Accordingly, the extinction rates in the local communities are the main drivers of community dynamics. Our findings indicate that the landscape carries a significant extinction debt and in model projections 33-60\% of all species went extinct within 1000 yr. Our study demonstrates that the combination of dynamic simulation models with field data provides a promising approach for understanding regional community dynamics and for projecting community responses to habitat fragmentation. The approach bears the potential for efficient tests of conservation activities aimed at mitigating future losses of biodiversity.}, language = {en} } @article{SchererJeltschGrimmetal.2016, author = {Scherer, Cedric and Jeltsch, Florian and Grimm, Volker and Blaum, Niels}, title = {Merging trait-based and individual-based modelling: An animal functional type approach to explore the responses of birds to climatic and land use changes in semi-arid African savannas}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {326}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.07.005}, pages = {75 -- 89}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Climate change and land use management practices are major drivers of biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems. To understand and predict resulting changes in community structures, individual-based and spatially explicit population models are a useful tool but require detailed data sets for each species. More generic approaches are thus needed. Here we present a trait-based functional type approach to model savanna birds. The aim of our model is to explore the response of different bird functional types to modifications in habitat structure. The functional types are characterized by different traits, in particular body mass, which is related to life-history traits (reproduction and mortality) and spatial scales (home range area and dispersal ability), as well as the use of vegetation structures for foraging and nesting, which is related to habitat quality and suitability. We tested the performance of the functional types in artificial landscapes varying in shrub:grass ratio and clumping intensity of shrub patches. We found that an increase in shrub encroachment and a decrease in habitat quality caused by land use mismanagement and climate change endangered all simulated bird functional types. The strength of this effect was related to the preferred habitat. Furthermore, larger-bodied insectivores and omnivores were more prone to extinction due to shrub encroachment compared to small-bodied species. Insectivorous and omnivorous birds were more sensitive to clumping intensity of shrubs whereas herbivorous and carnivorous birds were most affected by a decreasing amount of grass cover. From an applied point of view, our findings emphasize that policies such as woody plant removal and a reduction in livestock stocking rates to prevent shrub encroachment should prioritize the enlargement of existing grassland patches. Overall, our results show that the combination of an individual-based modelling approach with carefully defined functional types can provide a powerful tool for exploring biodiversity responses to environmental changes. Furthermore, the increasing accumulation of worldwide data sets on species' core and soft traits (surrogates to determine core traits indirectly) on one side and the refinement of conceptual frameworks for animal functional types on the other side will further improve functional type approaches which consider the sensitivities of multiple species to climate change, habitat loss, and fragmentation.}, language = {en} }