@misc{RolinskiRammigWalzetal.2014,
  author    = {Rolinski, Susanne and Rammig, Anja and Walz, Ariane and von Bloh, Werner and van Oijen, M. and Thonicke, Kirsten},
  title     = {A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487)},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487)},
  number    = {487},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407999},
  pages     = {1813 -- 1831},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RolinskiRammigWalzetal.2015,
  author    = {Rolinski, Susanne and Rammig, A. and Walz, Ariane and von Bloh, Werner and van Oijen, M. and Thonicke, Kirsten},
  title     = {A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: the ecosystem perspective},
  series = {Biogeosciences},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {Biogeosciences},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1726-4170},
  doi       = {10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015},
  pages     = {1813 -- 1831},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RadchukReedTeplitskyetal.2019,
  author    = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and Reed, Thomas and Teplitsky, Celine and van de Pol, Martijn and Charmantier, Anne and Hassall, Christopher and Adamik, Peter and Adriaensen, Frank and Ahola, Markus P. and Arcese, Peter and Miguel Aviles, Jesus and Balbontin, Javier and Berg, Karl S. and Borras, Antoni and Burthe, Sarah and Clobert, Jean and Dehnhard, Nina and de Lope, Florentino and Dhondt, Andre A. and Dingemanse, Niels J. and Doi, Hideyuki and Eeva, Tapio and Fickel, J{\"o}rns and Filella, Iolanda and Fossoy, Frode and Goodenough, Anne E. and Hall, Stephen J. G. and Hansson, Bengt and Harris, Michael and Hasselquist, Dennis and Hickler, Thomas and Jasmin Radha, Jasmin and Kharouba, Heather and Gabriel Martinez, Juan and Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste and Mills, James A. and Molina-Morales, Mercedes and Moksnes, Arne and Ozgul, Arpat and Parejo, Deseada and Pilard, Philippe and Poisbleau, Maud and Rousset, Francois and R{\"o}del, Mark-Oliver and Scott, David and Carlos Senar, Juan and Stefanescu, Constanti and Stokke, Bard G. and Kusano, Tamotsu and Tarka, Maja and Tarwater, Corey E. and Thonicke, Kirsten and Thorley, Jack and Wilting, Andreas and Tryjanowski, Piotr and Merila, Juha and Sheldon, Ben C. and Moller, Anders Pape and Matthysen, Erik and Janzen, Fredric and Dobson, F. Stephen and Visser, Marcel E. and Beissinger, Steven R. and Courtiol, Alexandre and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie},
  title     = {Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient},
  series = {Nature Communications},
  volume    = {10},
  journal   = {Nature Communications},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2041-1723},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{LangerwischWalzRammigetal.2016,
  author    = {Langerwisch, F. and Walz, Ariane and Rammig, A. and Tietjen, B. and Thonicke, Kirsten and Cramer, Wolfgang},
  title     = {Climate change increases riverine carbon outgassing, while export to the ocean remains uncertain},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {526},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-41017},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410177},
  pages     = {24},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Any regular interaction of land and river during flooding affects carbon pools within the terrestrial system, riverine carbon and carbon exported from the system. In the Amazon basin carbon fluxes are considerably influenced by annual flooding, during which terrigenous organic material is imported to the river. The Amazon basin therefore represents an excellent example of a tightly coupled terrestrial-riverine system. The processes of generation, conversion and transport of organic carbon in such a coupled terrigenous-riverine system strongly interact and are climate-sensitive, yet their functioning is rarely considered in Earth system models and their response to climate change is still largely unknown. To quantify regional and global carbon budgets and climate change effects on carbon pools and carbon fluxes, it is important to account for the coupling between the land, the river, the ocean and the atmosphere. We developed the RIVerine Carbon Model (RivCM), which is directly coupled to the well-established dynamic vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL, in order to account for this large-scale coupling. We evaluate RivCM with observational data and show that some of the values are reproduced quite well by the model, while we see large deviations for other variables. This is mainly caused by some simplifications we assumed. Our evaluation shows that it is possible to reproduce large-scale carbon transport across a river system but that this involves large uncertainties. Acknowledging these uncertainties, we estimate the potential changes in riverine carbon by applying RivCM for climate forcing from five climate models and three CO2 emission scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, SRES). We find that climate change causes a doubling of riverine organic carbon in the southern and western basin while reducing it by 20\% in the eastern and northern parts. In contrast, the amount of riverine inorganic carbon shows a 2- to 3-fold increase in the entire basin, independent of the SRES scenario. The export of carbon to the atmosphere increases as well, with an average of about 30 \%. In contrast, changes in future export of organic carbon to the Atlantic Ocean depend on the SRES scenario and are projected to either decrease by about 8.9\% (SRES A1B) or increase by about 9.1\% (SRES A2). Such changes in the terrigenous-riverine system could have local and regional impacts on the carbon budget of the whole Amazon basin and parts of the Atlantic Ocean. Changes in riverine carbon could lead to a shift in the riverine nutrient supply and pH, while changes in the exported carbon to the ocean lead to changes in the supply of organic material that acts as a food source in the Atlantic. On larger scales the increased outgassing of CO2 could turn the Amazon basin from a sink of carbon to a considerable source. Therefore, we propose that the coupling of terrestrial and riverine carbon budgets should be included in subsequent analysis of the future regional carbon budget.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{ReichsteinBahnCiaisetal.2013,
  author    = {Reichstein, Markus and Bahn, Michael and Ciais, Philippe and Frank, Dorothea and Mahecha, Miguel D. and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Zscheischler, Jakob and Beer, Christian and Buchmann, Nina and Frank, David C. and Papale, Dario and Rammig, Anja and Smith, Pete and Thonicke, Kirsten and van der Velde, Marijn and Vicca, Sara and Walz, Ariane and Wattenbach, Martin},
  title     = {Climate extremes and the carbon cycle},
  series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science},
  volume    = {500},
  journal   = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science},
  number    = {7462},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {0028-0836},
  doi       = {10.1038/nature12350},
  pages     = {287 -- 295},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{LangerwischWalzRammigetal.2016,
  author    = {Langerwisch, Fanny and Walz, Ariane and Rammig, Anja and Tietjen, Britta and Thonicke, Kirsten and Cramer, Wolfgang},
  title     = {Deforestation in Amazonia impacts riverine carbon dynamics},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {535},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-41022},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-410225},
  pages     = {16},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospheric CO2, terrestrial productivity and carbon storage, as well as discharge. Both terrestrial productivity and discharge are influenced by climate and land use change. The coupled LPJmL and RivCM model system (Langerwisch et al., 2016) has been applied to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Amazon riverine carbon dynamics. Vegetation dynamics (in LPJmL) as well as export and conversion of terrigenous carbon to and within the river (RivCM) are included. The model system has been applied for the years 1901 to 2099 under two deforestation scenarios and with climate forcing of three SRES emission scenarios, each for five climate models. We find that high deforestation (business-as-usual scenario) will strongly decrease (locally by up to 90 \%) riverine particulate and dissolved organic carbon amount until the end of the current century. At the same time, increase in discharge leaves net carbon transport during the first decades of the century roughly unchanged only if a sufficient area is still forested. After 2050 the amount of transported carbon will decrease drastically. In contrast to that, increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration determine the amount of riverine inorganic carbon stored in the Amazon basin. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase riverine inorganic carbon amount by up to 20\% (SRES A2). The changes in riverine carbon fluxes have direct effects on carbon export, either to the atmosphere via outgassing or to the Atlantic Ocean via discharge. The outgassed carbon will increase slightly in the Amazon basin, but can be regionally reduced by up to 60\% due to deforestation. The discharge of organic carbon to the ocean will be reduced by about 40\% under the most severe deforestation and climate change scenario. These changes would have local and regional consequences on the carbon balance and habitat characteristics in the Amazon basin itself as well as in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LangerwischWalzRammigetal.2016,
  author    = {Langerwisch, Fanny and Walz, Ariane and Rammig, Anja and Tietjen, Britta and Thonicke, Kirsten and Cramer, Wolfgang},
  title     = {Deforestation in Amazonia impacts riverine carbon dynamics},
  series = {Earth system dynamics},
  volume    = {7},
  journal   = {Earth system dynamics},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {2190-4979},
  doi       = {10.5194/esd-7-953-2016},
  pages     = {953 -- 968},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospheric CO2, terrestrial productivity and carbon storage, as well as discharge. Both terrestrial productivity and discharge are influenced by climate and land use change. The coupled LPJmL and RivCM model system (Langerwisch et al., 2016) has been applied to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Amazon riverine carbon dynamics. Vegetation dynamics (in LPJmL) as well as export and conversion of terrigenous carbon to and within the river (RivCM) are included. The model system has been applied for the years 1901 to 2099 under two deforestation scenarios and with climate forcing of three SRES emission scenarios, each for five climate models. We find that high deforestation (business-as-usual scenario) will strongly decrease (locally by up to 90 \%) riverine particulate and dissolved organic carbon amount until the end of the current century. At the same time, increase in discharge leaves net carbon transport during the first decades of the century roughly unchanged only if a sufficient area is still forested. After 2050 the amount of transported carbon will decrease drastically. In contrast to that, increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration determine the amount of riverine inorganic carbon stored in the Amazon basin. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase riverine inorganic carbon amount by up to 20\% (SRES A2). The changes in riverine carbon fluxes have direct effects on carbon export, either to the atmosphere via outgassing or to the Atlantic Ocean via discharge. The outgassed carbon will increase slightly in the Amazon basin, but can be regionally reduced by up to 60\% due to deforestation. The discharge of organic carbon to the ocean will be reduced by about 40\% under the most severe deforestation and climate change scenario. These changes would have local and regional consequences on the carbon balance and habitat characteristics in the Amazon basin itself as well as in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{FrankReichsteinBahnetal.2015,
  author    = {Frank, Dorothe A. and Reichstein, Markus and Bahn, Michael and Thonicke, Kirsten and Frank, David and Mahecha, Miguel D. and Smith, Pete and Van der Velde, Marijn and Vicca, Sara and Babst, Flurin and Beer, Christian and Buchmann, Nina and Canadell, Josep G. and Ciais, Philippe and Cramer, Wolfgang and Ibrom, Andreas and Miglietta, Franco and Poulter, Ben and Rammig, Anja and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Walz, Ariane and Wattenbach, Martin and Zavala, Miguel A. and Zscheischler, Jakob},
  title     = {Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts},
  series = {Global change biology},
  volume    = {21},
  journal   = {Global change biology},
  number    = {8},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1354-1013},
  doi       = {10.1111/gcb.12916},
  pages     = {2861 -- 2880},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Thonicke2003,
  author    = {Thonicke, Kirsten},
  title     = {Fire disturbance and vegetation dynamics : analysis and models},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0000713},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2003},
  abstract  = {Untersuchungen zur Rolle nat{\"u}rlicher St{\"o}rungen in der Vegetation bzw. in {\"O}kosystemen zeigen, dass nat{\"u}rliche St{\"o}rungen ein essentielles und intrinsisches Element in {\"O}kosystemen darstellen, substanziell zur Vitalit{\"a}t und strukturellen Diversit{\"a}t der {\"O}kosysteme beitragen und Stoffkreisl{\"a}ufe sowohl auf dem lokalen als auch auf dem globalen Niveau beeinflussen. Feuer als Grasland-, Busch- oder Waldbrand ist ein besonderes St{\"o}rungsagens, da es sowohl durch biotische als auch abiotische Umweltfaktoren verursacht wird. Es beeinflusst biogeochemische Kreisl{\"a}ufe und spielt f{\"u}r die chemische Zusammensetzung der Atmosph{\"a}re durch Freisetzung klimarelevanter Spurengase und Aerosole aus der Verbrennung von Biomasse eine bedeutende Rolle. Dies wird auch durch die Emission von ca. 3.9 Gt Kohlenstoff pro Jahr unterstrichen, was einen großen Anteil am globalen Gesamtaufkommen ausmacht. Ein kombiniertes Modell, das die Effekte und R{\"u}ckkopplungen zwischen Feuer und Vegetation beschreibt, wurde erforderlich, als {\"A}nderungen in den Feuerregimes als Folge von {\"A}nderungen in der Landnutzung und dem Landmanagement festgestellt wurden. Diese Notwendigkeit wurde noch durch die Erkenntnis unterstrichen, daß die Menge verbrennender Biomasse als ein bedeutender Kohlenstoffluß sowohl die chemische Zusammensetzung der Atmosph{\"a}re und das Klima, aber auch die Vegetationsdynamik selbst beeinflusst. Die bereits existierenden Modellans{\"a}tze reichen hier jedoch nicht aus, um entsprechende Untersuchungen durchzuf{\"u}hren. Als eine Schlussfolgerung daraus wurde eine optimale Menge von Faktoren gefunden, die das Auftreten und die Ausbreitung des Feuers, sowie deren {\"o}kosystemare Effekte ausreichend beschreiben. Ein solches Modell sollte die Merkmale beobachteter Feuerregime simulieren k{\"o}nnen und Analysen der Interaktionen zwischen Feuer und Vegetationsdynamik unterst{\"u}tzen, um auch Ursachen f{\"u}r bestimmte {\"A}nderungen in den Feuerregimes herausfinden zu k{\"o}nnen. Insbesondere die dynamischen Verkn{\"u}pfungen zwischen Vegetation, Klima und Feuerprozessen sind von Bedeutung, um dynamische R{\"u}ckkopplungen und Effekte einzelner, ver{\"a}nderter Umweltfaktoren zu analysieren. Dadurch ergab sich die Notwendigkeit, neue Feuermodelle zu entwickeln, die die genannten Untersuchungen erlauben und das Verst{\"a}ndnis der Rolle des Feuer in der globalen {\"O}kologie verbessern. Als Schlussfolgerung der Dissertation wird festgestellt, dass Feuchtebedingungen, ihre Andauer {\"u}ber die Zeit (L{\"a}nge der Feuersaison) und die Streumenge die wichtigsten Komponenten darstellen, die die Verteilung der Feuerregime global beschreiben. Werden Zeitreihen einzelner Regionen simuliert, sollten besondere Entz{\"u}ndungsquellen, brandkritische Klimabedingungen und die Bestandesstruktur als zus{\"a}tzliche Determinanten ber{\"u}cksichtigt werden. Die Bestandesstruktur ver{\"a}ndert das Niveau des Auftretens und der Ausbreitung von Feuer, beeinflusst jedoch weniger dessen interannuelle Variabilit{\"a}t. Das es wichtig ist, die vollst{\"a}ndige Wirkungskette wichtiger Feuerprozesse und deren Verkn{\"u}pfungen mit der Vegetationsdynamik zu ber{\"u}cksichtigen, wird besonders unter Klima{\"a}nderungsbedingungen deutlich. Eine l{\"a}nger werdende, vom Klima abh{\"a}ngige Feuersaison bedeutet nicht automatisch eine im gleichen Maße anwachsende Menge verbrannter Biomasse. Sie kann durch {\"A}nderungen in der Produktivit{\"a}t der Vegetation gepuffert oder beschleunigt werden. Sowohl durch {\"A}nderungen der Bestandesstruktur als auch durch eine erh{\"o}hte Produktivit{\"a}t der Vegetation k{\"o}nnen {\"A}nderungen der Feuereigenschaften noch weiter intensiviert werden und zu noch h{\"o}heren, feuerbezogenen Emissionen f{\"u}hren.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KarpTallisSachseetal.2015,
  author    = {Karp, Daniel S. and Tallis, Heather and Sachse, Rene and Halpern, Ben and Thonicke, Kirsten and Cramer, Wolfgang and Mooney, Harold and Polasky, Stephen and Tietjen, Britta and Waha, Katharina and Walt, Ariane and Wolny, Stacie},
  title     = {National indicators for observing ecosystem service change},
  series = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions},
  volume    = {35},
  journal   = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0959-3780},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.014},
  pages     = {12 -- 21},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Earth's life-support systems are in rapid decline, yet we have few metrics or indicators with which to track these changes. The world's governments are calling for biodiversity and ecosystem-service monitoring to guide and evaluate international conservation policy as well as to incorporate natural capital into their national accounts. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has been tasked with setting up this monitoring system. Here we explore the immediate feasibility of creating a global ecosystem-service monitoring platform under the GEO BON framework through combining data from national statistics, global vegetation models, and production function models. We found that nine ecosystem services could be annually reported at a national scale in the short term: carbon sequestration, water supply for hydropower, and non-fisheries marine products, crop, livestock, game meat, fisheries, mariculture, and timber production. Reported changes in service delivery over time reflected ecological shocks (e.g., droughts and disease outbreaks), highlighting the immediate utility of this monitoring system. Our work also identified three opportunities for creating a more comprehensive monitoring system. First, investing in input data for ecological process models (e.g., global land-use maps) would allow many more regulating services to be monitored. Currently, only 1 of 9 services that can be reported is a regulating service. Second, household surveys and censuses could help evaluate how nature affects people and provides non-monetary benefits. Finally, to forecast the sustainability of service delivery, research efforts could focus on calculating the total remaining biophysical stocks of provisioning services. Regardless, we demonstrated that a preliminary ecosystem-service monitoring platform is immediately feasible. With sufficient international investment, the platform could evolve further into a much-needed system to track changes in our planet's life-support systems. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SakschewskivonBlohBoitetal.2016,
  author    = {Sakschewski, Boris and von Bloh, Werner and Boit, Alice and Poorter, Lourens and Pe~na-Claros, Marielos and Heinke, Jens and Joshi, Jasmin Radha and Thonicke, Kirsten},
  title     = {Resilience of Amazon forests emerges from plant trait diversity},
  series = {Nature climate change},
  volume    = {6},
  journal   = {Nature climate change},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {1758-678X},
  doi       = {10.1038/NCLIMATE3109},
  pages     = {1032 -- +},
  year      = {2016},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CanoCrespoTraxlThonicke2021,
  author    = {Cano Crespo, Ana and Traxl, Dominik and Thonicke, Kirsten},
  title     = {Spatio-temporal patterns of extreme fires in Amazonian forests},
  series = {European physical journal special topics},
  volume    = {230},
  journal   = {European physical journal special topics},
  number    = {14-15},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Berlin ; Heidelberg},
  issn      = {1951-6355},
  doi       = {10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00164-3},
  pages     = {3033 -- 3044},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Fires are a fundamental part of the Earth System. In the last decades, they have been altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric composition with unprecedented rapidity. In this study, we implement a complex networks-based methodology to track individual fires over space and time. We focus on extreme fires-the 5\% most intense fires-in the tropical forests of the Brazilian Legal Amazon over the period 2002-2019. We analyse the interannual variability in the number and spatial patterns of extreme forest fires in years with diverse climatic conditions and anthropogenic pressure to examine potential synergies between climate and anthropogenic drivers. We observe that major droughts, that increase forest flammability, co-occur with high extreme fire years but also that it is fundamental to consider anthropogenic activities to understand the distribution of extreme fires. Deforestation fires, fires escaping from managed lands, and other types of forest degradation and fragmentation provide the ignition sources for fires to ignite in the forests. We find that all extreme forest fires identified are located within a 0.5-km distance from forest edges, and up to 56\% of them are within a 1-km distance from roads (which increases to 73\% within 5 km), showing a strong correlation that defines spatial patterns of extreme fires.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RadchukDeLaenderCabraletal.2019,
  author    = {Radchuk, Viktoriia and De Laender, Frederik and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento and Boulangeat, Isabelle and Crawford, Michael Scott and Bohn, Friedrich and De Raedt, Jonathan and Scherer, Cedric and Svenning, Jens-Christian and Thonicke, Kirsten and Schurr, Frank M. and Grimm, Volker and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie},
  title     = {The dimensionality of stability depends on disturbance type},
  series = {Ecology letters},
  volume    = {22},
  journal   = {Ecology letters},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1461-023X},
  doi       = {10.1111/ele.13226},
  pages     = {674 -- 684},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Ecosystems respond in various ways to disturbances. Quantifying ecological stability therefore requires inspecting multiple stability properties, such as resistance, recovery, persistence and invariability. Correlations among these properties can reduce the dimensionality of stability, simplifying the study of environmental effects on ecosystems. A key question is how the kind of disturbance affects these correlations. We here investigated the effect of three disturbance types (random, species-specific, local) applied at four intensity levels, on the dimensionality of stability at the population and community level. We used previously parameterized models that represent five natural communities, varying in species richness and the number of trophic levels. We found that disturbance type but not intensity affected the dimensionality of stability and only at the population level. The dimensionality of stability also varied greatly among species and communities. Therefore, studying stability cannot be simplified to using a single metric and multi-dimensional assessments are still to be recommended.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Thonicke2019,
  author    = {Thonicke, Kirsten},
  title     = {The influence of disturbance, climate extremes and land-use change on vegetation dynamics},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2019},
  language  = {en}
}