@article{HuberKrummenauerPenaOrtizetal.2020, author = {Huber, Veronika and Krummenauer, Linda and Pe{\~n}a-Ortiz, Cristina and Lange, Stefan and Gasparrini, Antonio and Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria and Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo and Frieler, Katja}, title = {Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming}, series = {Environmental Research}, volume = {186}, journal = {Environmental Research}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {San Diego, California}, issn = {0013-9351}, doi = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447}, pages = {1 -- 10}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe. Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability. Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49\% (95\%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81\% (95\%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45\% (95\%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53\% (95\%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88\% (95\%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise. Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.}, language = {en} } @article{JuangSchachnerPevecZimmeretal.2020, author = {Juang, Linda P. and Schachner, Maja Katharina and Pevec-Zimmer, Sharleen and Moffitt, Ursula Elinor}, title = {The Identity Project intervention in Germany}, series = {New directions for child and adolescent development}, volume = {173}, journal = {New directions for child and adolescent development}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {San Fransisco}, issn = {1534-8687}, doi = {10.1002/cad.20379}, pages = {65 -- 82}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We examined whether German adolescents who participated in an adapted 8-week school-based intervention, the Identity Project, reported greater changes in heritage and global identities and perceptions of classroom cultural climate. We used a longitudinal, wait-list control design pooling eight classrooms across the school years of 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. The sample included 195 seventh graders (M-age = 12.35 years, SD =.79, 39\% female, 83\% of migration background). Findings showed moderate support for more heritage identity exploration and greater perceptions of unequal treatment and critical consciousness climate in the intervention group. There were also important differences across conditions regarding how identity and climate related to adolescent outcomes. We conclude that the Identity Project can be adapted and applied in other cultural contexts such as Germany. It provides a necessary space for adolescents to engage in discussions about diversity, cultural heritage, social inequities, and their relevance to one's identities.}, language = {en} } @article{JuangSchachnerPevecZimmeretal.2020, author = {Juang, Linda P. and Schachner, Maja Katharina and Pevec-Zimmer, Sharleen and Moffitt, Ursula Elinor}, title = {The Identity Project intervention in Germany}, series = {New directions for child and adolescent development}, volume = {173}, journal = {New directions for child and adolescent development}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {San Fransisco}, issn = {1534-8687}, doi = {10.1002/cad.20379}, pages = {65 -- 82}, year = {2020}, abstract = {We examined whether German adolescents who participated in an adapted 8-week school-based intervention, the Identity Project, reported greater changes in heritage and global identities and perceptions of classroom cultural climate. We used a longitudinal, wait-list control design pooling eight classrooms across the school years of 2018-2019 and 2019-2020. The sample included 195 seventh graders (M-age = 12.35 years, SD =.79, 39\% female, 83\% of migration background). Findings showed moderate support for more heritage identity exploration and greater perceptions of unequal treatment and critical consciousness climate in the intervention group. There were also important differences across conditions regarding how identity and climate related to adolescent outcomes. We conclude that the Identity Project can be adapted and applied in other cultural contexts such as Germany. It provides a necessary space for adolescents to engage in discussions about diversity, cultural heritage, social inequities, and their relevance to one's identities.}, language = {en} } @article{Rath2020, author = {Rath, Anna von}, title = {Strategic label}, series = {Afropolitan Literature as World Literature}, journal = {Afropolitan Literature as World Literature}, publisher = {Bloomsbury Academic}, address = {New York}, isbn = {978-1-5013-4260-8}, doi = {10.5040/9781501342615.ch-003}, pages = {37 -- 56}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The Afropolitan Berlin novel Biskaya by SchwarzRund (2016) is probably the first novel written in German which demonstratively wears this label - on the front cover of the book, the author announces it to be an Afropolitaner Berlin Roman underneath the title. While addressing quite a few particulars of the Berlin-Brandenburg area, the novel writes itself willingly into the globally popular, yet controversial realm of African inflected cosmopolitanism. In this essay, I will argue that the author uses the label strategically to negotiate the global and the local - or worldliness and cultural specificity - with the aim to increase the visibility of queer of Color critique in Germany. SchwarzRund's approach may seem contradictory at first: Even though she could have called her novel queer, neuro-diverse, diasporic or Black, she chose Afropolitan. While she wrote an outspokenly political novel, she labeled it with a term often critically denounced as apolitical. Using Afropolitanism, she seems to aim at a rather mainstream audience, but at the same time, she published with a small, activist publishing house. While attempting to tap into the transnational cultural and literary capital of Afropolitanism, the language of the book is German and restricts it to the German-speaking parts of the world. This essay will explore the Afropolitanism depicted in Biskaya and elaborate on the strategic choice of label. I will offer one possible interpretation of the characters and settings which illustrate SchwarzRund's vision and version of Afropolitanism. In my analyses, I am interested in political questions around the characters' identities and the setting. The Black protagonists of the novel, Tue and Dwayne, live in Berlin, but grew up on the fictional island Biskaya. This island is located somewhere close to the European mainland and part of the continent; it had an entirely Black population until a destructive event forced many to move to the mainland. The protagonists, now living in a mainly white society, are depicted in a state of interrogation of their own sense of self, measuring oppressive societal norms against other possible ways of interaction. The novel shows how people are deemed strange and not fitting into a network of unspoken rules because of racialized bodies, sexual preferences and\#shor lifestyle choices. However, SchwarzRund counters those structures of inequality with her characters' playful ways to deal with queerness, femininity and blackness subverting imposed norms. The novel challenges imperatives of subordination, creates new visions and inscribes Black Germans as political subjects.}, language = {en} } @article{deBritoKuhlickeMarx2020, author = {de Brito, Mariana Madruga and Kuhlicke, Christian and Marx, Andreas}, title = {Near-real-time drought impact assessment}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {15}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, number = {10}, publisher = {IOP Publ.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aba4ca}, pages = {11}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Contemporary drought impact assessments have been constrained due to data availability, leading to an incomplete representation of impact trends. To address this, we present a novel method for the comprehensive and near-real-time monitoring of drought socio-economic impacts based on media reports. We tested its application using the case of the exceptional 2018/19 German drought. By employing text mining techniques, 4839 impact statements were identified, relating to livestock, agriculture, forestry, fires, recreation, energy and transport sectors. An accuracy of 95.6\% was obtained for their automatic classification. Furthermore, high levels of performance in terms of spatial and temporal precision were found when validating our results against independent data (e.g. soil moisture, average precipitation, population interest in droughts, crop yield and forest fire statistics). The findings highlight the applicability of media data for rapidly and accurately monitoring the propagation of drought consequences over time and space. We anticipate our method to be used as a starting point for an impact-based early warning system.}, language = {en} } @article{WebberLischeidSommeretal.2020, author = {Webber, Heidi and Lischeid, Gunnar and Sommer, Michael and Finger, Robert and Nendel, Claas and Gaiser, Thomas and Ewert, Frank}, title = {No perfect storm for crop yield failure in Germany}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {15}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, number = {10}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aba2a4}, pages = {14}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Large-scale crop yield failures are increasingly associated with food price spikes and food insecurity and are a large source of income risk for farmers. While the evidence linking extreme weather to yield failures is clear, consensus on the broader set of weather drivers and conditions responsible for recent yield failures is lacking. We investigate this for the case of four major crops in Germany over the past 20 years using a combination of machine learning and process-based modelling. Our results confirm that years associated with widespread yield failures across crops were generally associated with severe drought, such as in 2018 and to a lesser extent 2003. However, for years with more localized yield failures and large differences in spatial patterns of yield failures between crops, no single driver or combination of drivers was identified. Relatively large residuals of unexplained variation likely indicate the importance of non-weather related factors, such as management (pest, weed and nutrient management and possible interactions with weather) explaining yield failures. Models to inform adaptation planning at farm, market or policy levels are here suggested to require consideration of cumulative resource capture and use, as well as effects of extreme events, the latter largely missing in process-based models. However, increasingly novel combinations of weather events under climate change may limit the extent to which data driven methods can replace process-based models in risk assessments.}, language = {en} } @article{RieboldRussowSchlegeletal.2020, author = {Riebold, Diana and Russow, Kati and Schlegel, Mathias and Wollny, Theres and Thiel, Joerg and Freise, Jona and Hueppop, Ommo and Eccard, Jana and Plenge-Boenig, Anita and Loebermann, Micha and Ulrich, Rainer G{\"u}nter and Klammt, Sebastian and Mettenleiter, Thomas Christoph and Reisinger, Emil Christian}, title = {Occurrence of gastrointestinal parasites in small mammals from Germany}, series = {Vector borne and zoonotic diseases}, volume = {20}, journal = {Vector borne and zoonotic diseases}, number = {2}, publisher = {Liebert}, address = {New Rochelle}, issn = {1530-3667}, doi = {10.1089/vbz.2019.2457}, pages = {125 -- 133}, year = {2020}, abstract = {An increase in zoonotic infections in humans in recent years has led to a high level of public interest. However, the extent of infestation of free-living small mammals with pathogens and especially parasites is not well understood. This pilot study was carried out within the framework of the "Rodent-borne pathogens" network to identify zoonotic parasites in small mammals in Germany. From 2008 to 2009, 111 small mammals of 8 rodent and 5 insectivore species were collected. Feces and intestine samples from every mammal were examined microscopically for the presence of intestinal parasites by using Telemann concentration for worm eggs, Kinyoun staining for coccidia, and Heidenhain staining for other protozoa. Adult helminths were additionally stained with carmine acid for species determination. Eleven different helminth species, five coccidians, and three other protozoa species were detected. Simultaneous infection of one host by different helminths was common. Hymenolepis spp. (20.7\%) were the most common zoonotic helminths in the investigated hosts. Coccidia, including Eimeria spp. (30.6\%), Cryptosporidium spp. (17.1\%), and Sarcocystis spp. (17.1\%), were present in 40.5\% of the feces samples of small mammals. Protozoa, such as Giardia spp. and amoebae, were rarely detected, most likely because of the repeated freeze-thawing of the samples during preparation. The zoonotic pathogens detected in this pilot study may be potentially transmitted to humans by drinking water, smear infection, and airborne transmission.}, language = {en} } @article{SemkeTiberius2020, author = {Semke, Lisa-Marie and Tiberius, Victor}, title = {Corporate Foresight and Dynamic Capabilities}, series = {Forecasting}, volume = {2}, journal = {Forecasting}, number = {2}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2571-9394}, doi = {10.3390/forecast2020010}, pages = {180 -- 293}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Firms engage in forecasting and foresight activities to predict the future or explore possible future states of the business environment in order to pre-empt and shape it (corporate foresight). Similarly, the dynamic capabilities approach addresses relevant firm capabilities to adapt to fast change in an environment that threatens a firm's competitiveness and survival. However, despite these conceptual similarities, their relationship remains opaque. To close this gap, we conduct qualitative interviews with foresight experts as an exploratory study. Our results show that foresight and dynamic capabilities aim at an organizational renewal to meet future challenges. Foresight can be regarded as a specific activity that corresponds with the sensing process of dynamic capabilities. The experts disagree about the relationship between foresight and sensing and see no direct links with transformation. However, foresight can better inform post-sensing activities and, therefore, indirectly contribute to the adequate reconfiguration of the resource base, an increased innovativeness, and firm performance.}, language = {en} } @article{LaudanZoellerThieken2020, author = {Laudan, Jonas and Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {Flash floods versus river floods}, series = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, volume = {20}, journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences}, publisher = {European Geophysical Society}, address = {Katlenburg-Lindau}, issn = {1684-9981}, doi = {10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020}, pages = {999 -- 1023}, year = {2020}, abstract = {River floods are among the most damaging natural hazards that frequently occur in Germany. Flooding causes high economic losses and impacts many residents. In 2016, several southern German municipalities were hit by flash floods after unexpectedly severe heavy rainfall, while in 2013 widespread river flooding had occurred. This study investigates and compares the psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods and potential consequences for precautionary behaviour. Data were collected using computer-aided telephone interviews that were conducted among flood-affected households around 9 months after each damaging event. This study applies Bayesian statistics and negative binomial regressions to test the suitability of psychological indicators to predict the precaution motivation of individuals. The results show that it is not the particular flood type but rather the severity and local impacts of the event that are crucial for the different, and potentially negative, impacts on mental health. According to the used data, however, predictions of the individual precaution motivation should not be based on the derived psychological indicators - i.e. coping appraisal, threat appraisal, burden and evasion - since their explanatory power was generally low and results are, for the most part, non-significant. Only burden reveals a significant positive relation to planned precaution regarding weak flash floods. In contrast to weak flash floods and river floods, the perceived threat of strong flash floods is significantly lower although feelings of burden and lower coping appraisals are more pronounced. Further research is needed to better include psychological assessment procedures and to focus on alternative data sources regarding floods and the connected precaution motivation of affected residents.}, language = {en} }