@article{SchwagerCovasBlaumetal.2008, author = {Schwager, Monika and Covas, Rita and Blaum, Niels and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Limitations of population models in predicting climate change effects : a simulation study of sociable weavers in southern Africa}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/j.0030-1299.2008.16464.x}, year = {2008}, language = {en} } @article{ZurellBergerCabraletal.2010, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Berger, Uta and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento and Jeltsch, Florian and Meynard, Christine N. and Muenkemueller, Tamara and Nehrbass, Nana and Pagel, J{\"o}rn and Reineking, Bjoern and Schroeder, Boris and Grimm, Volker}, title = {The virtual ecologist approach : simulating data and observers}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.18284.x}, year = {2010}, abstract = {Ecologists carry a well-stocked toolbox with a great variety of sampling methods, statistical analyses and modelling tools, and new methods are constantly appearing. Evaluation and optimisation of these methods is crucial to guide methodological choices. Simulating error-free data or taking high-quality data to qualify methods is common practice. Here, we emphasise the methodology of the 'virtual ecologist' (VE) approach where simulated data and observer models are used to mimic real species and how they are 'virtually' observed. This virtual data is then subjected to statistical analyses and modelling, and the results are evaluated against the 'true' simulated data. The VE approach is an intuitive and powerful evaluation framework that allows a quality assessment of sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. It works under controlled conditions as well as under consideration of confounding factors such as animal movement and biased observer behaviour. In this review, we promote the approach as a rigorous research tool, and demonstrate its capabilities and practical relevance. We explore past uses of VE in different ecological research fields, where it mainly has been used to test and improve sampling regimes as well as for testing and comparing models, for example species distribution models. We discuss its benefits as well as potential limitations, and provide some practical considerations for designing VE studies. Finally, research fields are identified for which the approach could be useful in the future. We conclude that VE could foster the integration of theoretical and empirical work and stimulate work that goes far beyond sampling methods, leading to new questions, theories, and better mechanistic understanding of ecological systems.}, language = {en} } @article{EstherGroeneveldEnrightetal.2010, author = {Esther, Alexandra and Groeneveld, Juergen and Enright, Neal J. and Miller, Ben P. and Lamont, Byron B. and Perry, George L. W. and Blank, F. Benjamin and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Sensitivity of plant functional types to climate change : classification tree analysis of a simulation model}, issn = {1100-9233}, doi = {10.1111/j.1654-1103.2009.01155.x}, year = {2010}, abstract = {Question: The majority of studies investigating the impact of climate change on local plant communities ignores changes in regional processes, such as immigration from the regional seed pool. Here we explore: (i) the potential impact of climate change on composition of the regional seed pool, (ii) the influence of changes in climate and in the regional seed pool on local community structure, and (iii) the combinations of life history traits, i.e. plant functional types (PFTs), that are most affected by environmental changes. Location: Fire-prone, Mediterranean-type shrublands in southwestern Australia. Methods: Spatially explicit simulation experiments were conducted at the population level under different rainfall and fire regime scenarios to determine the effect of environmental change on the regional seed pool for 38 PFTs. The effects of environmental and seed immigration changes on local community dynamics were then derived from community-level experiments. Classification tree analyses were used to investigate PFT- specific vulnerabilities to climate change. Results: The classification tree analyses revealed that responses of PFTs to climate change are determined by specific trait characteristics. PFT-specific seed production and community patterns responded in a complex manner to climate change. For example, an increase in annual rainfall caused an increase in numbers of dispersed seeds for some PFTs, but decreased PFT diversity in the community. Conversely, a simulated decrease in rainfall reduced the number of dispersed seeds and diversity of PFTs. Conclusions: PFT interactions and regional processes must be considered when assessing how local community structure will be affected by environmental change.}, language = {en} } @article{BurkartAlslebenLachmuthetal.2010, author = {Burkart, Michael and Alsleben, Katja and Lachmuth, Susanne and Schumacher, Juliane and Hofmann, Ralf and Jeltsch, Florian and Schurr, Frank Martin}, title = {Recruitment requirements of the rare and threatened Juncus atratus}, issn = {0367-2530}, doi = {10.1016/j.flora.2009.08.003}, year = {2010}, abstract = {The long-term persistence of populations and species depends on the successful recruitment of individuals. The generative recruitment of plants may be limited by a lack of suitable germination and establishment conditions. Establishment limitation may especially be caused by the competitive effect of surrounding dense vegetation, which is believed to restrict the recruitment success of many plant species to small open patches ('safe sites'). We conducted experiments to clarify the roles of germination and seedling establishment as limiting processes in the recruitment of Juncus atratus Krock., a rare and threatened herbaceous perennial river corridor plant in Central Europe. Light intensity had a positive effect on germination. However, some seedlings emerged even in total darkness and the germination rate at 1\% light intensity was more than half of that at 60\% light intensity. Seedling establishment in the field after 10 weeks was 30\% on bare ground, but it was close to zero in grassland. Establishment in the growth chamber after 8 weeks was close to 75\% for seedlings that germinated underwater, but only about 35\% for seedlings that germinated afloat. Furthermore, establishment decreased with flooding duration on bare ground, but increased with flooding duration in grassland. These data indicate that establishment, rather than germination, is a critical life stage in Central European populations off. atratus. They furthermore indicate that the competition of surrounding vegetation for water limits seedling establishment under field conditions without flooding, largely restricting establishment success to bare ground habitats. In contrast, grassland is more suitable for the recruitment off. atratus than bare ground under prolonged flooding. Grassland may facilitate the establishment off. atratus seedlings during long- lasting floods by supplying oxygen to the soil through aerenchyma. The shift from competition to facilitation in grassland occurred after 30 days of flooding, i.e. within the ontogeny of individual plants. The specific recruitment requirements off. arrows may be a main cause of its rarity in modern Central Europe. In order to prevent regional extinction off. atratus, we suggest maintaining or re-establishing natural hydrodynamics in the species' habitats.}, language = {en} } @article{TreydteGrantJeltsch2009, author = {Treydte, Anna C. and Grant, Rina C. C. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Tree size and herbivory determine below-canopy grass quality and species composition in savannahs}, issn = {0960-3115}, doi = {10.1007/s10531-009-9694-3}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Large single-standing trees are rapidly declining in savannahs, ecosystems supporting a high diversity of large herbivorous mammals. Savannah trees are important as they support both a unique flora and fauna. The herbaceous layer in particular responds to the structural and functional properties of a tree. As shrubland expands stem thickening occurs and large trees are replaced by smaller trees. Here we examine whether small trees are as effective in providing advantages for grasses growing beneath their crowns as large trees are. The role of herbivory in this positive tree- grass interaction is also investigated. We assessed soil and grass nutrient content, structural properties, and herbaceous species composition beneath trees of three size classes and under two grazing regimes in a South African savannah. We found that grass leaf content (N and P) beneath the crowns of particularly large (ca. 3.5 m) and very large trees (ca. 9 m) was as much as 40\% greater than the same grass species not growing under a tree canopy, whereas nutrient contents of grasses did not differ beneath small trees (< 2.3 m). Moderate herbivory enhanced these effects slightly. Grass species composition differed beneath and beyond the tree canopy but not between tree size classes. As large trees significantly improve the grass nutrient quality for grazers in contrast to smaller trees, the decline of the former should be halted. The presence of trees further increases grass species diversity and patchiness by favouring shade- tolerant species. Both grazing wildlife and livestock will benefit from the presence of large trees because of their structural and functional importance for savannahs.}, language = {en} } @article{WasiolkaJeltschHenscheletal.2010, author = {Wasiolka, Bernd and Jeltsch, Florian and Henschel, Joh and Blaum, Niels}, title = {Space use of the spotted sand lizard (Pedioplanis l. lineoocellata) under different degradation states}, issn = {0141-6707}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2028.2009.01085.x}, year = {2010}, abstract = {Although the effects of grazing-induced savannah degradation on animal diversity are well documented, knowledge of how they affect space use or responding behaviour remains poor. In this study, we analysed space use of the spotted sand lizard (Pedioplanis l. lineoocellata) in degraded versus nondegraded habitats of southern Kalahari savannah habitats. Lizards were radio tracked, daily movement distances recorded and home range sizes calculated. In degraded Kalahari savannah habitats where plant diversity and perennial grass cover are low but shrub cover high, P. lineoocellata moves larger distances (40.88 +/- 6.42 m versus 27.43 +/- 5.08 m) and occupies larger home ranges (646.64 +/- 244.84 m(2) versus 209.15 +/- 109.84 m(2)) than in nondegraded habitats (high plant diversity, high perennial grass cover and low shrub cover). We assume that this increase in daily movement distances and home range sizes is a behavioural plasticity to limited food resources in degraded savannah habitats. Although P. lineoocellata is able to adjust to resource-poor savannah habitats, the increase in the lizard's movement activities is likely to result in a higher predation risk. This is supported by the lower availability of protective vegetation i.e. perennial grass cover. Hence, we conclude that despite behavioural plasticity of P. lineoocellata, overgrazing has a severe negative impact on the space use of P. lineoocellata.}, language = {en} } @article{TreydteRiginosJeltsch2010, author = {Treydte, Anna C. and Riginos, Corinna and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Enhanced use of beneath-canopy vegetation by grazing ungulates in African savannahs}, issn = {0140-1963}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaridenv.2010.07.003}, year = {2010}, abstract = {The cover of large trees in African savannahs is rapidly declining, mainly due to human land-use practices. Trees improve grass nutrient quality and contribute to species and structural diversity of savannah vegetation. However, the response of herbivores to trees as habitat features is unknown We quantified the habitat use of wild and domestic ungulates in two eastern and southern African savannahs. We assessed grazing intensities and quantified dung depositions beneath and around canopies of different sized trees. Grasses were eaten and dung was deposited twice as frequently beneath large (ca. 5 m in height) and very large trees (7-10 m) than in open grasslands. Small trees (<2.5 m) did not show this trend. Grazing intensity and dung deposition decreased with distance away from trees at both study sites. These results suggest that large trees represent essential habitat features for domestic and wild herbivores. Increased dung depositions beneath large trees may further promote the maintenance of a patchy nutrient distribution in savannahs. Small trees cannot provide the same structural and functional advantages as large trees do. We recommend that land-use practices be promoted which conserve large single-standing trees to benefit the flora and fauna of African savannahs.}, language = {en} } @article{TietjenJeltschZeheetal.2010, author = {Tietjen, Britta and Jeltsch, Florian and Zehe, Erwin and Classen, Nikolaus and Groengroeft, Alexander and Schiffers, Katja and Oldeland, Jens}, title = {Effects of climate change on the coupled dynamics of water and vegetation in drylands}, issn = {1936-0584}, doi = {10.1002/Eco.70}, year = {2010}, abstract = {Drylands worldwide are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. The effects of global climate change such as altered precipitation patterns and increased temperature leading to reduced water availability will likely increase this risk. At the same time, an elevated atmospheric CO2 level could mitigate the effects of reduced water availability by increasing the water use efficiency of plants. To prevent degradation of drylands, it is essential to understand the underlying processes that affect water availability and vegetation cover. Since water and vegetation are strongly interdependent in water-limited ecosystems, changes can lead to highly non- linear effects. We assess these effects by developing an ecohydrological model of soil moisture and vegetation cover. The water component of the model simulates the daily dynamics of surface water and water contents in two soil layers. Vegetation is represented by two functional types: shrubs and grasses. These compete for soil water and strongly influence hydrological processes. We apply the model to a Namibian thornbush savanna and evaluate the separate and combined effects of decreased annual precipitation, increased temperature, more variable precipitation and elevated atmospheric CO2 on soil moisture and on vegetation cover. The results show that two main factors control the response of plant types towards climate change, namely a change in water availability and a change in water allocation to a specific plant type. Especially, reduced competitiveness of grasses can lead to a higher risk of shrub encroachment in these systems.}, language = {en} } @article{PetruTielboergerBelkinetal.2006, author = {Petru, Martina and Tielb{\"o}rger, Katja and Belkin, Ruthie and Sternberg, Marcelo and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Life history variation in an annual plant under two opposing environmental constraints along an aridity gradient}, doi = {10.1111/j.2005.0906-7590.04310.x}, year = {2006}, abstract = {Environmental gradients represent an ideal framework for studying adaptive variation in the life history of plant species. However, on very steep gradients, largely contrasting conditions at the two gradient ends often limit the distribution of the same species across the whole range of environmental conditions. Here, we study phenotypic variation in a winter annual crucifer Biscutella didyma persisting along a steep gradient of increasing rainfall in Israel. In particular, we explored whether the life history at the arid end of the gradient indicates adaptations to drought and unpredictable conditions, while adaptations to the highly competitive environment prevail at the mesic Mediterranean end. We examined several morphological and reproductive traits in four natural populations and in populations cultivated in standard common environment. Plants from arid environments were faster in phenological development, more branched in architecture and tended to maximize reproduction, while the Mediterranean plants invested mainly in vertical vegetative growth. Differences between cultivation and field in diaspore production were very large for arid populations as opposed to Mediterranean ones, indicating a larger potential to increase reproduction under favorable conditions. Our overall findings indicate two strongly opposing selective forces at the two extremes of the aridity gradient, which result in contrasting strategies within the studied annual plant species}, language = {en} } @article{WasiolkaBlaumJeltschetal.2009, author = {Wasiolka, Bernd and Blaum, Niels and Jeltsch, Florian and Henschel, Joh}, title = {Behavioural responses of the lizard "Pedioplanis l. lineoocellata" to overgrazing}, issn = {1146-609X}, doi = {10.1016/j.actao.2008.09.009}, year = {2009}, abstract = {We studied the effects of overgrazing on the foraging behaviour of the lizard Pedioplanis l. lineoocellata (Spotted Sand Lizard), a sit-and-wait forager, in habitats of differing vegetation states to determine the effects of habitat degradation on this species. At high grazing intensity where vegetation cover and diversity is low, the lizard P. lineoocellata moves more frequently, spends more time moving and covers larger distances than in habitats where vegetation cover and diversity is high. These behavioural changes in movement patterns can be explained by less abundant prey in habitats with low vegetation cover and diversity. Although morphology, phylogeny and physiology of P. lineoocellata should constrain the change in foraging behaviour, the species has modified its foraging strategy from sit- and-wait to actively foraging. We assume that this behavioural flexibility of P. lineoocellata is a buffer mechanism enabling the species to use and survive in degraded (unfavourable) habitats.}, language = {en} } @article{RossmanithBlaumHoentschetal.2009, author = {Rossmanith, Eva and Blaum, Niels and H{\"o}ntsch, Kerstin and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Sex-related parental care strategies in the lesser spotted woodpecker "Picoides minor" : of flexible mothers and dependable fathers}, issn = {0908-8857}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-048X.2008.04353.x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {We investigated sex-specific parental care behaviour of lesser spotted woodpeckers Picoides minor in the low mountain range Taunus, Germany. Observed parental care included incubation, nest sanitation as well as brooding and feeding of nestlings. Contributions of the two sexes to parental care changed in progress of the breeding period. During incubation and the first half of the nestling period, parental care was divided equally between partners. However, in the late nestling stage, we found males to feed their nestlings irrespective of brood size while females considerably decreased feeding rate with the number of nestlings. This behaviour culminated in desertion of small broods by females shortly before fledging. The fact that even deserted nests were successful indicates that males were able to compensate for the females' absence. Interestingly, the mating of one female with two males with separate nests could be found in the population, which confirms earlier findings of polyandry in the lesser spotted woodpecker. We conclude that biparental care is not essential in the later stage and one partner can reduce effort and thus costs of parental care, at least in small broods where the mate is able to compensate for that behaviour. Reduced care and desertion appears only in females, which might be caused by a combination of two traits: First, females might suffer higher costs of investment in terms of mortality and secondly, male-biased sex ratio in the population generally leads to higher mating probabilities for females in the following breeding season. The occurrence of polyandry seems to be a result of these conditions.}, language = {en} } @article{MoloneyHolzapfelTielboergeretal.2009, author = {Moloney, Kirk A. and Holzapfel, Claus and Tielb{\"o}rger, Katja and Jeltsch, Florian and Schurr, Frank Martin}, title = {Rethinking the common garden in invasion research}, issn = {1433-8319}, doi = {10.1016/j.ppees.2009.05.002}, year = {2009}, abstract = {In common garden experiments, a number of genotypes are raised in a common environment in order to quantify the genetic component of phenotypic variation. Common gardens are thus ideally suited for disentangling how genetic and environmental factors contribute to the success of invasive species in their new non-native range. Although common garden experiments are increasingly employed in the study of invasive species, there has been little discussion about how these experiments should be designed for greatest utility. We argue that this has delayed progress in developing a general theory of invasion biology. We suggest a minimum optimal design (MOD) for common garden studies that target the ecological and evolutionary processes leading to phenotypic differentiation between native and invasive ranges. This involves four elements: (A) multiple, strategically sited garden locations, involving at the very least four gardens (2 in the native range and 2 in the invaded range); (B) careful consideration of the genetic design of the experiment; (C) standardization of experimental protocols across all gardens; and (D) care to ensure the biosafety of the experiment. Our understanding of the evolutionary ecology of biological invasions will be greatly enhanced by common garden studies, if and only if they are designed in a more systematic fashion, incorporating at the very least the MOD suggested here.}, language = {en} } @article{EstherGroeneveldEnrightetal.2008, author = {Esther, Alexandra and Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Enright, Neal J. and Miller, Ben P. and Lamont, Byron B. and Perry, George L. W. and Schurr, Frank Martin and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Assessing the importance of seed immigration on coexistence of plant functional types in a species-rich ecosystem}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.01.014}, year = {2008}, abstract = {Modelling and empirical studies have shown that input from the regional seed pool is essential to maintain local species diversity. However, most of these studies have concentrated on simplified, if not neutral, model systems, and focus on a limited subset of species or on aggregated measures of diversity only (e.g., species richness or Shannon diversity). Thus they ignore more complex species interactions and important differences between species. To gain a better understanding of how seed immigration affects community structure at the local scale in real communities we conducted computer simulation experiments based on plant functional types (PFTs) for a species-rich, fire-prone Mediterranean-type shrubland in Western Australia. We developed a spatially explicit simulation model to explore the community dynamics of 38 PFTs, defined by seven traits - regeneration mode, seed production, seed size, maximum crown diameter, drought tolerance, dispersal mode and seed bank type - representing 78 woody species. Model parameterisation is based on published and unpublished data on the population dynamics of shrub species collected over 18 years. Simulation experiments are based on two contrasting seed immigration scenarios: (1) the 'equal seed input number' scenario, where the number of immigrant seeds is the same for all PFTs, and (2) the 'equal seed input mass' scenario, where the cumulative mass of migrating seeds is the same for all PFTs. Both scenarios were systematically tested and compared for different overall seed input values. Without immigration the local community drifts towards a state with only 13 coexisting PFTs. With increasing immigration rates in terms of overall mass of seeds the simulated number of coexisting PFTs and Shannon diversity quickly approaches values observed in the field. The equal seed mass scenario resulted in a more diverse community than did the seed number scenario. The model successfully approximates the frequency distributions (relative densities) of all individual plant traits except seed size for scenarios associated with equal seed input mass and high immigration rate. However, no scenario satisfactorily approximated the frequency distribution for all traits in combination. Our results show that regional seed input can explain the more aggregated measures of local community structure, and some, but not all, aspects of community composition. This points to the possible importance of other (untested) processes and traits (e.g., dispersal vectors) operating at the local scale. Our modelling framework can readily allow new factors to be systematically investigated, which is a major advantage compared to previous simulation studies, as it allows us to find structurally realistic models, which can address questions pertinent to ecological theory and to conservation management.}, language = {en} } @article{KoernerJeltsch2008, author = {K{\"o}rner, Katrin and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Detecting general plant functional type responses in fragmented landscapes using spatially-explicit simulations}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.08.002}, year = {2008}, language = {en} } @article{MayGrimmJeltsch2009, author = {May, Felix and Grimm, Volker and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Reversed effects of grazing on plant diversity : the role of below-ground competition and size symmetry}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.17724.x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Grazing is known as one of the key factors for diversity and community composition in grassland ecosystems, but the response of plant communities towards grazing varies remarkably between sites with different environmental conditions. It is generally accepted that grazing increases plant diversity in productive environments, while it tends to reduce diversity in unproductive habitats (grazing reversal hypothesis). Despite empirical evidence for this pattern the mechanistic link between modes of plant-plant competition and grazing response at the community level still remains poorly understood. Root-competition in particular has rarely been included in theoretical studies, although it has been hypothesized that variations in productivity and grazing regime can alter the relative importance of shoot- and root-competition. We therefore developed an individual-based model based on plant functional traits to investigate the response of a grassland community towards grazing. Models of different complexity, either incorporating only shoot competition or with distinct shoot- and root-competition, were used to study the interactive effects of grazing, resource availability, and the mode of competition (size-symmetric or asymmetric). The pattern predicted by the grazing reversal hypothesis (GRH) can only be explained by our model if shoot- and root-competition are explicitly considered and if size asymmetry of above- and symmetry of below-ground competition is assumed. For this scenario, the model additionally reproduced empirically observed plant trait responses: erect and large plant functional types (PFTs) dominated without grazing, while frequent grazing favoured small PFTs with a rosette growth form. We conclude that interactions between shoot- and root-competition and size symmetry/asymmetry of plant-plant interactions are crucial in order to understand grazing response under different habitat productivities. Our results suggest that future empirical trait surveys in grassland communities should include root traits, which have been largely ignored in previous studies, in order to improve predictions of plants" responses to grazing.}, language = {en} } @article{PoppDomptailBlaumetal.2009, author = {Popp, Alexander and Domptail, Stephanie and Blaum, Niels and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Landuse experience does not qualify for adaptation to climate change}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.11.015}, year = {2009}, abstract = {The need to implement sustainable resource management regimes for semi-arid and arid rangelands is acute as non- adapted grazing strategies lead to irreversible environmental problems such as desertification and associated loss of economic support to society. In these sensitive ecosystems, traditional sectoral, disciplinary approaches will not work to attain sustainability: achieving a collective vision of how to attain sustainability requires interactive efforts among disciplines in a more integrated approach. Therefore, we developed an integrated ecological-economic approach that consists of an ecological and an economic module and combines relevant processes on either level. Parameters for both modules are adjusted for an arid dwarf shrub savannah in southern Namibia. The economic module is used to analyse decisions of different virtual farmer types on annual stocking rates depending on their knowledge how the ecosystem works and climatic conditions. We used a dynamic linear optimisation model to simulate farm economics and livestock dynamics. The ecological module is used to simulate the impact of the farmers' land-use decision, derived by the economic module, on ecosystem dynamics and resulting carrying capacity of the system for livestock. Vegetation dynamics, based on the concept of State-and-transition models, and forage productivity for both modules is derived by a small- scale and spatially explicit vegetation model. This mechanistic approach guarantees that data collected and processes estimated at smaller scales are included in our application. Simulation results of the ecological module were successfully compared to simulation results of the optimisation model for a time series of 30 years. We revealed that sustainable management of semi-arid and arid rangelands relies strongly on rangeland managers' understanding of ecological processes. Furthermore, our simulation results demonstrate that the projected lower annual rainfall due to climate change adds an additional layer of risk to these ecosystems that are already prone to land degradation.}, language = {en} } @article{MeyerRaudnitschkaSteinhauseretal.2008, author = {Meyer, Jork and Raudnitschka, Dorit and Steinhauser, J. and Jeltsch, Florian and Brandl, Roland}, title = {Biology and ecology of "Thallomys nigricauda" (Rodentia, Muridae) in the Thornveld savannah of South Africa}, issn = {1616-5047}, doi = {10.1016/j.mambio.2006.11.002}, year = {2008}, language = {en} } @article{MoloneyJeltsch2008, author = {Moloney, Kirk A. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Space matters : novel developments in plant ecology through spatial modelling}, issn = {1433-8319}, doi = {10.1016/j.ppees.2007.12.002}, year = {2008}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschMoloneySchurretal.2008, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Moloney, Kirk A. and Schurr, Frank Martin and K{\"o}chy, Martin and Schwager, Monika}, title = {The state of plant population modelling in light of environmental change}, issn = {1433-8319}, doi = {10.1016/j.ppees.2007.11.004}, year = {2008}, abstract = {Plant population modelling has been around since the 1970s, providing a valuable approach to understanding plant ecology from a mechanistic standpoint. It is surprising then that this area of research has not grown in prominence with respect to other approaches employed in modelling plant systems. In this review, we provide an analysis of the development and role of modelling in the field of plant population biology through an exploration of where it has been, where it is now and, in our opinion, where it should be headed. We focus, in particular, on the role plant population modelling could play in ecological forecasting, an urgent need given current rates of regional and global environmental change. We suggest that a critical element limiting the current application of plant population modelling in environmental research is the trade-off between the necessary resolution and detail required to accurately characterize ecological dynamics pitted against the goal of generality, particularly at broad spatial scales. In addition to suggestions how to overcome the current shortcoming of data on the process-level we discuss two emerging strategies that may offer a way to overcome the described limitation: (1) application of a modern approach to spatial scaling from local processes to broader levels of interaction and (2) plant functional-type modelling. Finally we outline what we believe to be needed in developing these approaches towards a 'science of forecasting'.}, language = {en} } @article{PfeiferSchatzPicoetal.2009, author = {Pfeifer, Marion and Schatz, Bertrand and Pic{\´o}, F. Xavier and Passalacqua, Nicodemo G. and Fay, Michael F. and Carey, Pete D. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Phylogeography and genetic structure of the orchid "Himantoglossum hircinum" (L.) Spreng. across its European central-marginal gradient}, issn = {0305-0270}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2699.2009.02168.x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Aim This study aims to link demographic traits and post-glacial recolonization processes with genetic traits in Himantoglossum hircinum (L.) Spreng (Orchidaceae), and to test the implications of the central-marginal concept (CMC) in Europe. Location Twenty sites covering the entire European distribution range of this species. Methods We employed amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers and performed a plastid microsatellite survey to assess genetic variation in 20 populations of H. hircinum located along central-marginal gradients. We measured demographic traits to assess population fitness along geographical gradients and to test for correlations between demographic traits and genetic diversity. We used genetic diversity indices and analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) to test hypotheses of reduced genetic diversity and increased genetic differentiation and isolation from central to peripheral sites. We used Bayesian simulations to analyse genetic relationships among populations. Results Genetic diversity decreased significantly with increasing latitudinal and longitudinal distance from the distribution centre when excluding outlying populations. The AMOVA revealed significant genetic differentiation among populations (F-ST = 0.146) and an increase in genetic differentiation from the centre of the geographical range to the margins (except for the Atlantic group). Population fitness, expressed as the ratio N-R/N, decreased significantly with increasing latitudinal distance from the distribution centre. Flower production was lower in most eastern peripheral sites. The geographical distribution of microsatellite haplotypes suggests post-glacial range expansion along three major migratory pathways, as also supported by individual membership fractions in six ancestral genetic clusters (C1-C6). No correlations between genetic diversity (e.g. diversity indices, haplotype frequency) and population demographic traits were detected. Main conclusions Reduced genetic diversity and haplotype frequency in H. hircinum at marginal sites reflect historical range expansions. Spatial variation in demographic traits could not explain genetic diversity patterns. For those sites that did not fit into the CMC, the genetic pattern is probably masked by other factors directly affecting either demography or population genetic structure. These include post-glacial recolonization patterns and changes in habitat suitability due to climate change at the northern periphery. Our findings emphasize the importance of distinguishing historical effects from those caused by geographical variation in population demography of species when studying evolutionary and ecological processes at the range margins under global change.}, language = {en} } @article{BlaumSeymourRossmanithetal.2009, author = {Blaum, Niels and Seymour, Colleen and Rossmanith, Eva and Schwager, Monika and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Changes in arthropod diversity along a land use driven gradient of shrub cover in savanna rangelands : identifcation of suitable indicators}, issn = {0960-3115}, doi = {10.1007/s10531-008-9498-x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Shrub encroachment linked to heavy grazing has dramatically changed savanna landscapes, and is a major form of rangeland degradation. Our understanding of how shrub encroachment affects arthropod communities is poor, however. Here, we investigate the effects of shrub encroachment on abundance and diversity of ground-dwelling (wingless) arthropods at varying levels of shrub cover in the southern Kalahari. We also ascertain if invertebrate assemblage composition changes with habitat structure and identify which aspects of habitat structure (e.g., grass cover, herbaceous plant cover, shrub density) correlate most strongly with these changes. Ant, scorpion and dung beetle abundance increased with shrub cover, whereas grasshoppers and solifuges declined. Spider and beetle abundance exhibited hump-shaped relationships with shrub cover. RTU richness within orders either mirrored abundances, or exhibited no trend. Shrub density was the habitat component most correlated with similarities between invertebrate assemblages. Ground-dwelling arthropods showed clear shifts in species assemblage composition at a similarity level of 65\% according to shrub density. Changes in indicator species showed that within the Tenebrionidae (darkling beetles), certain species respond positively to shrub thickening, replacing other species within the Family. Small-bodied, wingless Scarabaeidae (dung beetles) tended to increase with increased shrub density and three species emerged as significant indicators of more thickened habitats, although this might be a response to greater dung availability, rather than habitat structure itself. We conclude that because ground- dwelling invertebrates showed such clear responses in species assemblage composition, they present excellent candidates for use as indicator species in further studies into bush encroachment.}, language = {en} } @article{PoppVogelBlaumetal.2009, author = {Popp, Alexander and Vogel, Melanie and Blaum, Niels and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Scaling up ecohydrological processes : role of surface water flow in water-limited landscapes}, issn = {0148-0227}, doi = {10.1029/2008jg000910}, year = {2009}, abstract = {In this study, we present a stochastic landscape modeling approach that has the power to transfer and integrate existing information on vegetation dynamics and hydrological processes from the small scale to the landscape scale. To include microscale processes like ecohydrological feedback mechanisms and spatial exchange like surface water flow, we derive transition probabilities from a fine-scale simulation model. We applied two versions of the landscape model, one that includes and one that disregards spatial exchange of water to the situation of a sustainably used research farm and communally used and degraded rangeland in semiarid Namibia. Our simulation experiments show that including spatial exchange of overland flow among vegetation patches into our model is a precondition to reproduce vegetation dynamics, composition, and productivity, as well as hydrological processes at the landscape scale. In the model version that includes spatial exchange of water, biomass production at light grazing intensities increases 2.24-fold compared to the model without overland flow. In contrast, overgrazing destabilizes positive feedbacks through vegetation and hydrology and decreases the number of hydrological sinks in the model with overland flow. The buffer capacity of these hydrological sinks disappears and runoff increases. Here, both models predicted runoff losses from the system and artificial droughts occurring even in years with good precipitation. Overall, our study reveals that a thorough understanding of overland flow is an important precondition for improving the management of semiarid and arid rangelands with distinct topography.}, language = {en} } @article{PoppBlaumJeltsch2009, author = {Popp, Alexander and Blaum, Niels and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Ecohydrological feedback mechanisms in arid rangelands : simulating the impacts of topography and land use}, issn = {1439-1791}, doi = {10.1016/j.baae.2008.06.002}, year = {2009}, abstract = {The interaction between ecological and hydrological processes is particularly important in arid and semi-arid regions. Often the interaction between these processes is not completely understood and they are studied separately. We developed a grid-based computer model simulating the dynamics of the four most common vegetation types (perennial grass, annuals, dwarf shrubs and shrubs) and related hydrological processes in the region studied. Eco-hydrological interactions gain importance in rangelands with increasing slope, where vegetation cover obstructs run-off and decreases evaporation from the soil. Overgrazing can influence these positive feedback mechanisms. In this study, we first show that model predictions of cover and productivity of the vegetation types are realistic by comparing them with estimates obtained from field surveys. Then, we apply a realistic range in slope angle combined with two land use regimes (light versus heavy grazing intensity). Our simulation results reveal that hydrological processes and associated productivity are strongly affected by slope, whereas the magnitude of this impact depends on overgrazing. Under low stocking rates, undisturbed vegetation is maintained and run-off and evaporation remain low on flat plains and gentle slope. On steep slopes, run-off and evaporation become larger, while water retention potential decreases, which leads to reduced productivity. Overgrazing, however, reduces vegetation cover and biomass production and the landscape"s ability to conserve water decreases even on flat plains and gentle slopes. Generally, the abundance of perennial grasses and shrubs decreases with increasing slope and grazing. Dominance is shifted towards shrubs and annuals. As a management recommendation we suggest that different vegetation growth forms should not only be regarded as forage producers but also as regulators of ecosystem functioning. Particularly on sloping range lands, a high percentage of cover by perennial vegetation insures that water is retained in the system.}, language = {en} } @article{ZurellJeltschDormannetal.2009, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Jeltsch, Florian and Dormann, Carsten F. and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems : how good can predictions really be?}, issn = {0906-7590}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05810.x}, year = {2009}, abstract = {SDM performance varied for different range dynamics. Prediction accuracies decreased when abrupt range shifts occurred as species were outpaced by the rate of climate change, and increased again when a new equilibrium situation was realised. When ranges contracted, prediction accuracies increased as the absences were predicted well. Far- dispersing species were faster in tracking climate change, and were predicted more accurately by SDMs than short- dispersing species. BRTs mostly outperformed GLMs. The presence of a predator, and the inclusion of its incidence as an environmental predictor, made BRTs and GLMs perform similarly. Results are discussed in light of other studies dealing with effects of ecological traits and processes on SDM performance. Perspectives are given on further advancements of SDMs and for possible interfaces with more mechanistic approaches in order to improve predictions under environmental change.}, language = {en} } @article{TietjenZeheJeltsch2009, author = {Tietjen, Britta and Zehe, Erwin and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Simulating plant water availability in dry lands under climate change : a generic model of two soil layers}, issn = {0043-1397}, doi = {10.1029/2007WR006589}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Dry lands are exposed to a highly variable environment and face a high risk of degradation. The effects of climate change are likely to increase this risk; thus a profound knowledge of the system dynamics is crucial for evaluating management options. This applies particularly for the interactions between water and vegetation, which exhibit strong feedbacks. To evaluate these feedbacks and the effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, we developed a generic, process-based, spatially explicit soil moisture model of two soil layers, which can be coupled with vegetation models. A time scale relevant for ecological processes can be simulated without difficulty, and the model avoids complex parameterization with data that are unavailable for most regions of the world. We applied the model to four sites in Israel along a precipitation and soil type gradient and assessed the effects of climate change by comparing possible climatic changes with present climate conditions. The results show that in addition to temperature, the total amount of precipitation and its intra-annual variability are an important driver of soil moisture patterns. This indicates that particularly with regard to climate change, the approach of many ecological models that simulate water dynamics on an annual base is far too simple to make reliable predictions. Thus, the introduced model can serve as a valuable tool to improve present ecological models of dry lands because of its focus on the applicability and transferability.}, language = {en} } @article{GrimmRevillaGroeneveldetal.2005, author = {Grimm, Volker and Revilla, Eloy and Groeneveld, J{\"u}rgen and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Schwager, Monika and Tews, J{\"o}rg and Wichmann, Matthias and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Importance of buffer mechanisms for population viability analysis}, year = {2005}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschWeberMoloney2000, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Weber, G. E. and Moloney, Kirk A.}, title = {Simulated long-term vegetation response to alternative stocking strategies in savanna rangelands}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{WiegandSchmidtJeltschetal.2000, author = {Wiegand, K. and Schmidt, H. and Jeltsch, Florian and Ward, D.}, title = {Linking a spatially-explicit model of acacias to GIS and remotely-sensed data}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschWeberDeanetal.2000, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Weber, Gisela and Dean, W. R. J. and Milton, Sue J. and VanRooyen, N. and O'Connor, Terry and Moloney, Kirk A.}, title = {Entstehung und Bedeutung r{\"a}umlicher Vegetationsstrukturen in Trockensavannen : Baum-Graskoexistenz und Artenvielfalt}, year = {2000}, language = {de} } @article{TielboergerKadmonMuelleretal.2000, author = {Tielb{\"o}rger, Katja and Kadmon, Ronen and M{\"u}ller, Monika and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Raum-zeitliche Populationsdynamik von einj{\"a}hrigen W{\"u}stenpflanzen}, year = {2000}, language = {de} } @article{TielboergerKadmonMuelleretal.2000, author = {Tielb{\"o}rger, Katja and Kadmon, Ronen and M{\"u}ller, Monika and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Populationsdynamische Funktionen von Ausbreitung und Dormanz}, year = {2000}, language = {de} } @article{JeltschWeberParueloetal.2000, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Weber, Gisela and Paruelo, J. and Dean, W. R. J. and Milton, Sue J. and VanRooyen, N.}, title = {Beweidung als Degradationsfaktor in ariden und semiariden Weidesystemen}, year = {2000}, language = {de} } @article{ThulkeTischendorfStaubachetal.2000, author = {Thulke, Hans-Hermann and Tischendorf, L. and Staubach, C. and Selhorst, T. and Jeltsch, Florian and M{\"u}ller, T. and Schl{\"u}ter, H. and Wissel, Christian}, title = {The spatio-temporal dynamics of a post-vaccination recovery of rabies in foxes and emergency vaccination planning}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschWeberGrimm2000, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Weber, Gisela and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Ecological buffering mechanisms in savannas : a unifying theory of long-term tree-grass coexistence}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{WiegandWardThulkeetal.2000, author = {Wiegand, K. and Ward, D. and Thulke, Hans-Hermann and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {From snap-shot information to long-term population dynamics of Acacias by a simulation model}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{WiegandJeltschWard2000, author = {Wiegand, K. and Jeltsch, Florian and Ward, D.}, title = {Do spatial effects play a role in the spatial distribution of desert dwelling Acacias?}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{WiegandJeltsch2000, author = {Wiegand, T. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Long-term dynamics in arid and semi-arid ecosystems : synthesis of a workshop}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{WeberJeltsch2000, author = {Weber, Gisela and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Long-term impacts of livestock herbivory on herbaceous and woody vegetation in semiarid savannas}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschStephanWiegandetal.2001, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Stephan, T. and Wiegand, T. and Weber, G. E.}, title = {Arid rangeland management supported by dynamic spatially-explicit simulation models}, year = {2001}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschMoloney2001, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Moloney, Kirk A.}, title = {Spatially-explicit vegetation models : what have we learned ?}, year = {2001}, language = {en} } @article{WichmannJeltschDeanetal.2002, author = {Wichmann, Matthias and Jeltsch, Florian and Dean, Richard and Moloney, Kirk A. and Wissel, Christian}, title = {Weather does matter : simulating population dynamics of tawny eagle (Aquila rapax) under various rainfall scenarios}, year = {2002}, language = {en} } @article{WichmannJeltschDeanetal.2002, author = {Wichmann, Matthias and Jeltsch, Florian and Dean, Richard and Moloney, Kirk A. and Wissel, Christian}, title = {Does climate change in arid savanna affect the population persistence of raptors?}, year = {2002}, language = {en} } @article{Jeltsch2002, author = {Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Wechselbeziehungen zwischen Artendiversit{\"a}t und struktureller Diversit{\"a}t : modellgest{\"u}tzte Untersuchungen am Beispiel einer semiariden Savanne}, year = {2002}, language = {de} } @article{JeltschHansenTackmannetal.2003, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Hansen, Frank and Tackmann, K. and Thulke, Hans-Hermann}, title = {K{\"o}derauslageintervalle und Dauer der Bek{\"a}mpfung des Kleinen Fuchsbandwurms : eine Modellierstudie}, year = {2003}, language = {de} } @article{JeltschWiegandHanskietal.2003, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Wiegand, T. and Hanski, I. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information : a key for reconciling ecological theory and application}, year = {2003}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschWichmannDeanetal.2003, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Wichmann, Matthias and Dean, W. R. J. and Moloney, Kirk A. and Wissel, Christian}, title = {Implications of climate change for the persistence of raptors in arid savannah}, year = {2003}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschWichmannJohstetal.2003, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Wichmann, Matthias and Johst, J. and Moloney, Kirk A. and Wissel, Christian}, title = {Extinction risk in periodically fluctuating environments}, year = {2003}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschHansenThulke2003, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Hansen, Frank and Thulke, Hans-Hermann}, title = {Simulationsmodelle zur Planung von Strategien in der Bek{\"a}mpfung von Wildtiererkrankungen}, year = {2003}, language = {de} } @article{JeltschHansenTackmannetal.2003, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Hansen, Frank and Tackmann, K. and Wissel, Christian and Thulke, Hans-Hermann}, title = {Controlling Echinococcus multilocularis - ecological implications of field trials}, year = {2003}, language = {en} } @article{WiegandJeltschWard2004, author = {Wiegand, K. and Jeltsch, Florian and Ward, D.}, title = {Minimum recruitment frequency in plants with episodic recruitment}, year = {2004}, abstract = {There is concern about the lack of recruitment of Acacia trees in the Negev desert of Israel. We have developed three models to estimate the frequency of recruitment necessary for long-term population survival (i.e. positive average population growth for 1,000 years and <10\% probability of extinction). Two models assume purely episodic recruitment based on the general notion that recruitment in and environments is highly episodic. They differ in that the deterministic model investigates average dynamics while the stochastic model does not. Studies indicating that recruitment episodes in and environments have been overemphasized motivated the development of the third model. This semi-stochastic model simulates a mixture of continuous and episodic recruitment. Model analysis was done analytically for the deterministic model and via running model simulations for the stochastic and semi-stochastic models. The deterministic and stochastic models predict that, on average, 2.2 and 3.7 recruitment events per century, respectively, are necessary to sustain the population. According to the semi-stochastic model, 1.6 large recruitment events per century and an annual probability of 50\% that a small recruitment event occurs are needed. A consequence of purely episodic recruitment is that all recruitment episodes produce extremely large numbers of recruits (i.e. at odds with field observations), an evaluation that holds even when considering that rare events must be large. Thus, the semi- stochastic model appears to be the most realistic model. Comparing the prediction of the semi-stochastic model to field observations in the Negev desert shows that the absence of observations of extremely large recruitment events is no reason for concern. However, the almost complete absence of small recruitment events is a serious reason for concern. The lack of recruitment may be due to decreased densities of large mammalian herbivores and might be further exacerbated by possible changes in climate, both in terms of average precipitation and the temporal distribution of rain}, language = {en} }