@phdthesis{Oetsch2012, author = {{\"O}tsch, Rainald}, title = {Stromerzeugung in Deutschland unter den Rahmenbedingungen von Klimapolitik und liberalisiertem Strommarkt : Bewertung von Kraftwerksinvestitionen mit Bayes'schen Einflussdiagrammen}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-69056}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Mit der Liberalisierung des Strommarkts, den unsicheren Aussichten in der Klimapolitik und stark schwankenden Preisen bei Brennstoffen, Emissionsrechten und Kraftwerkskomponenten hat bei Kraftwerksinvestitionen das Risikomanagement an Bedeutung gewonnen. Dies {\"a}ußert sich im vermehrten Einsatz probabilistischer Verfahren. Insbesondere bei regulativen Risiken liefert der klassische, h{\"a}ufigkeitsbasierte Wahrscheinlichkeitsbegriff aber keine Handhabe zur Risikoquantifizierung. In dieser Arbeit werden Kraftwerksinvestitionen und -portfolien in Deutschland mit Methoden des Bayes'schen Risikomanagements bewertet. Die Bayes'sche Denkschule begreift Wahrscheinlichkeit als pers{\"o}nliches Maß f{\"u}r Unsicherheit. Wahrscheinlichkeiten k{\"o}nnen auch ohne statistische Datenanalyse allein mit Expertenbefragungen gewonnen werden. Das Zusammenwirken unsicherer Werttreiber wurde mit einem probabilistischen DCF-Modell (Discounted Cash Flow-Modell) spezifiziert und in ein Einflussdiagramm mit etwa 1200 Objekten umgesetzt. Da der {\"U}berw{\"a}lzungsgrad von Brennstoff- und CO2-Kosten und damit die H{\"o}he der von den Kraftwerken erwirtschafteten Deckungsbeitr{\"a}ge im Wettbewerb bestimmt werden, reicht eine einzelwirtschaftliche Betrachtung der Kraftwerke nicht aus. Strompreise und Auslastungen werden mit Heuristiken anhand der individuellen Position der Kraftwerke in der Merit Order bestimmt, d.h. anhand der nach kurzfristigen Grenzkosten gestaffelten Einsatzreihenfolge. Dazu wurden 113 thermische Großkraftwerke aus Deutschland in einer Merit Order vereinigt. Das Modell liefert Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungen f{\"u}r zentrale Gr{\"o}ßen wie Kapitalwerte von Bestandsportfolien sowie Stromgestehungskosten und Kapitalwerte von Einzelinvestitionen (Steinkohle- und Braunkohlekraftwerke mit und ohne CO2-Abscheidung sowie GuD-Kraftwerke). Der Wert der Bestandsportfolien von RWE, E.ON, EnBW und Vattenfall wird prim{\"a}r durch die Beitr{\"a}ge der Braunkohle- und Atomkraftwerke bestimmt. Erstaunlicherweise schl{\"a}gt sich der Emissionshandel nicht in Verlusten nieder. Dies liegt einerseits an den Zusatzgewinnen der Atomkraftwerke, andererseits an den bis 2012 gratis zugeteilten Emissionsrechten, welche hohe Windfall-Profite generieren. Dadurch erweist sich der Emissionshandel in seiner konkreten Ausgestaltung insgesamt als gewinnbringendes Gesch{\"a}ft. {\"U}ber die Restlaufzeit der Bestandskraftwerke resultiert ab 2008 aus der Einf{\"u}hrung des Emissionshandels ein Barwertvorteil von insgesamt 8,6 Mrd. €. In {\"a}hnlicher Dimension liegen die Barwertvorteile aus der 2009 von der Bundesregierung in Aussicht gestellten Laufzeitverl{\"a}ngerung f{\"u}r Atomkraftwerke. Bei einer achtj{\"a}hrigen Laufzeitverl{\"a}ngerung erg{\"a}ben sich je nach CO2-Preisniveau Barwertvorteile von 8 bis 15 Mrd. €. Mit h{\"o}heren CO2-Preisen und Laufzeitverl{\"a}ngerungen von bis zu 28 Jahren w{\"u}rden 25 Mrd. € oder mehr zus{\"a}tzlich anfallen. Langfristig erscheint fraglich, ob unter dem gegenw{\"a}rtigen Marktdesign noch Anreize f{\"u}r Investitionen in fossile Kraftwerke gegeben sind. Zu Beginn der NAP 2-Periode noch rentable Investitionen in Braunkohle- und GuD-Kraftwerke werden mit der auslaufenden Gratiszuteilung von Emissionsrechten zunehmend unrentabler. Die Rentabilit{\"a}t wird durch Strommarkteffekte der erneuerbaren Energien und ausscheidender alter Gas- und {\"O}lkraftwerke stetig weiter untergraben. Steinkohlekraftwerke erweisen sich selbst mit anf{\"a}nglicher Gratiszuteilung als riskante Investition. Die festgestellten Anreizprobleme f{\"u}r Neuinvestitionen sollten jedoch nicht dem Emissionshandel zugeschrieben werden, sondern resultieren aus den an Grenzkosten orientierten Strompreisen. Das Anreizproblem ist allerdings bei moderaten CO2-Preisen am gr{\"o}ßten. Es gilt auch f{\"u}r Kraftwerke mit CO2-Abscheidung: Obwohl die erwarteten Vermeidungskosten f{\"u}r CCS-Kraftwerke gegen{\"u}ber konventionellen Kohlekraftwerken im Jahr 2025 auf 25 €/t CO2 (Braunkohle) bzw. 38,5 €/t CO2 (Steinkohle) gesch{\"a}tzt werden, wird ihr Bau erst ab CO2-Preisen von 50 bzw. 77 €/t CO2 rentabel. Ob und welche Kraftwerksinvestitionen sich langfristig rechnen, wird letztlich aber politisch entschieden und ist selbst unter stark idealisierten Bedingungen kaum vorhersagbar.}, language = {de} } @article{ZuritaSanchezHenkel2012, author = {Zurita-Sanchez, Jorge R. and Henkel, Carsten}, title = {Acoustic waves from mechanical impulses due to fluorescence resonant energy (Forster) transfer Blowing a whistle with light}, series = {epl : a letters journal exploring the frontiers of physics}, volume = {97}, journal = {epl : a letters journal exploring the frontiers of physics}, number = {4}, publisher = {EDP Sciences}, address = {Mulhouse}, issn = {0295-5075}, doi = {10.1209/0295-5075/97/43002}, pages = {6}, year = {2012}, abstract = {We present a momentum transfer mechanism mediated by electromagnetic fields that originates in a system of two nearby molecules: one excited (donor D*) and the other in ground state (acceptor A). An intermolecular force related to fluorescence resonant energy or Forster transfer (FRET) arises in the unstable D* A molecular system, which differs from the equilibrium van der Waals interaction. Due to the its finite lifetime, a mechanical impulse is imparted to the relative motion in the system. We analyze the FRET impulse when the molecules are embedded in free space and find that its magnitude can be much greater than the single recoil photon momentum, getting comparable with the thermal momentum (Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution) at room temperature. In addition, we propose that this FRET impulse can be exploited in the generation of acoustic waves inside a film containing layers of donor and acceptor molecules, when a picosecond laser pulse excites the donors. This acoustic transient is distinguishable from that produced by thermal stress due to laser absorption, and may therefore play a role in photoacoustic spectroscopy. The effect can be seen as exciting a vibrating system like a string or organ pipe with light; it may be used as an opto-mechanical transducer.}, language = {en} } @article{ZurellGrimmRossmanithetal.2012, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Grimm, Volker and Rossmanith, Eva and Zbinden, Niklaus and Zimmermann, Niklaus E. and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Uncertainty in predictions of range dynamics black grouse climbing the Swiss Alps}, series = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, volume = {35}, journal = {Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum}, number = {7}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0906-7590}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.07200.x}, pages = {590 -- 603}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Empirical species distribution models (SDMs) constitute often the tool of choice for the assessment of rapid climate change effects on species vulnerability. Conclusions regarding extinction risks might be misleading, however, because SDMs do not explicitly incorporate dispersal or other demographic processes. Here, we supplement SDMs with a dynamic population model 1) to predict climate-induced range dynamics for black grouse in Switzerland, 2) to compare direct and indirect measures of extinction risks, and 3) to quantify uncertainty in predictions as well as the sources of that uncertainty. To this end, we linked models of habitat suitability to a spatially explicit, individual-based model. In an extensive sensitivity analysis, we quantified uncertainty in various model outputs introduced by different SDM algorithms, by different climate scenarios and by demographic model parameters. Potentially suitable habitats were predicted to shift uphill and eastwards. By the end of the 21st century, abrupt habitat losses were predicted in the western Prealps for some climate scenarios. In contrast, population size and occupied area were primarily controlled by currently negative population growth and gradually declined from the beginning of the century across all climate scenarios and SDM algorithms. However, predictions of population dynamic features were highly variable across simulations. Results indicate that inferring extinction probabilities simply from the quantity of suitable habitat may underestimate extinction risks because this may ignore important interactions between life history traits and available habitat. Also, in dynamic range predictions uncertainty in SDM algorithms and climate scenarios can become secondary to uncertainty in dynamic model components. Our study emphasises the need for principal evaluation tools like sensitivity analysis in order to assess uncertainty and robustness in dynamic range predictions. A more direct benefit of such robustness analysis is an improved mechanistic understanding of dynamic species responses to climate change.}, language = {en} } @misc{ZurellElithSchroederEsselbach2012, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Elith, Jane and Schr{\"o}der-Esselbach, Boris}, title = {Predicting to new environments tools for visualizing model behaviour and impacts on mapped distributions}, series = {Diversity \& distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity}, volume = {18}, journal = {Diversity \& distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity}, number = {6}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1366-9516}, doi = {10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00887.x}, pages = {628 -- 634}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Data limitations can lead to unrealistic fits of predictive species distribution models (SDMs) and spurious extrapolation to novel environments. Here, we want to draw attention to novel combinations of environmental predictors that are within the sampled range of individual predictors but are nevertheless outside the sample space. These tend to be overlooked when visualizing model behaviour. They may be a cause of differing model transferability and environmental change predictions between methods, a problem described in some studies but generally not well understood. We here use a simple simulated data example to illustrate the problem and provide new and complementary visualization techniques to explore model behaviour and predictions to novel environments. We then apply these in a more complex real-world example. Our results underscore the necessity of scrutinizing model fits, ecological theory and environmental novelty.}, language = {en} } @article{ZuoGandhiArndtetal.2012, author = {Zuo, Zhili and Gandhi, Neha S. and Arndt, Katja Maren and Mancera, Ricardo L.}, title = {Free energy calculations of the interactions of c-Jun-based synthetic peptides with the c-Fos protein}, series = {Biopolymers}, volume = {97}, journal = {Biopolymers}, number = {11}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0006-3525}, doi = {10.1002/bip.22099}, pages = {899 -- 909}, year = {2012}, abstract = {The c-Fosc-Jun complex forms the activator protein 1 transcription factor, a therapeutic target in the treatment of cancer. Various synthetic peptides have been designed to try to selectively disrupt the interaction between c-Fos and c-Jun at its leucine zipper domain. To evaluate the binding affinity between these synthetic peptides and c-Fos, polarizable and nonpolarizable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were conducted, and the resulting conformations were analyzed using the molecular mechanics generalized Born surface area (MM/GBSA) method to compute free energies of binding. In contrast to empirical and semiempirical approaches, the estimation of free energies of binding using a combination of MD simulations and the MM/GBSA approach takes into account dynamical properties such as conformational changes, as well as solvation effects and hydrophobic and hydrophilic interactions. The predicted binding affinities of the series of c-Jun-based peptides targeting the c-Fos peptide show good correlation with experimental melting temperatures. This provides the basis for the rational design of peptides based on internal, van der Waals, and electrostatic interactions.}, language = {en} } @article{ZobirMocek2012, author = {Zobir, Soraya Hadj and Mocek, Beate}, title = {Determination of the source rocks for the diatexites from the Edough Massif, Annaba, NE Algeria}, series = {Journal of African earth sciences}, volume = {69}, journal = {Journal of African earth sciences}, number = {13}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1464-343X}, doi = {10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2012.04.004}, pages = {26 -- 33}, year = {2012}, abstract = {The crystalline Edough Massif is located in the oriental part of the Algerian coastline. It consists of two tectonically superposed units of gneisses, augen-gneisses and migmatitic gneisses in the lower unit and micaschists in the upper unit. The crystalline rocks underwent a low to moderate degree of metamorphism; the gneisses suffered partial melting. They display migmatitic features such as nebulitic structures with contorted leucosome layers and K-feldspar porphyroblasts and thus can be classified as diatexites. The mineralogical composition of these rocks is very homogenous and consists of K-feldspar, micas and quartz. The feldspar-rich, arkosic nature of the outcrop implies a granitic source rock. High K2O/Na2O ratios and high A/CNK > 1.1 indicate an S-type granite source and a peraluminous composition of the protolith respectively. Chondrite normalized REE distribution patterns of the Edough diatexites show gently inclined patterns with a minor negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* = 0.36-0.49), which points to a very slightly differentiated granitic source. The REE pattern and trace element data of the diatexites are similar to those of average Proterozoic upper continental crust, which suggests that they are derived mainly from upper continental crust and were deposited in continental margins.}, language = {en} } @article{ZiolkowskiBleekTwamleyetal.2012, author = {Ziolkowski, Bartosz and Bleek, Katrin and Twamley, Brendan and Fraser, Kevin J. and Byrne, Robert and Diamond, Dermot and Taubert, Andreas}, title = {Magnetic ionogels (MagIGs) based on iron oxide nanoparticles, poly(N-isopropylacrylamide), and the ionic liquid trihexyl(tetradecyl)phosphonium dicyanamide}, series = {European journal of inorganic chemistry : a journal of ChemPubSoc Europe}, journal = {European journal of inorganic chemistry : a journal of ChemPubSoc Europe}, number = {32}, publisher = {Wiley-VCH}, address = {Weinheim}, issn = {1434-1948}, doi = {10.1002/ejic.201200597}, pages = {5245 -- 5251}, year = {2012}, abstract = {Magnetic ionogels (MagIGs) were prepared from organosilane-coated iron oxide nanoparticles, N-isopropylacrylamide, and the ionic liquid trihexyl(tetradecyl)phosphonium dicyanamide. The ionogels prepared with the silane-modified nanoparticles are more homogeneous than ionogels prepared with unmodified magnetite particles. The silane-modified particles are immobilized in the ionogel and are resistant tonanoparticle leaching. The modified particles also render the ionogels mechanically more stable than the ionogels synthesized with unmodified nanoparticles. The ionogels respond to external permanent magnets and are therefore prototypes of a new soft magnetic actuator.}, language = {en} } @article{ZinsmeisterSmolka2012, author = {Zinsmeister, Heike and Smolka, Eva}, title = {Corpus-based evidence for approximating semantic transparency of complex verbs}, series = {Potsdam cognitive science series}, journal = {Potsdam cognitive science series}, number = {3}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam}, address = {Potsdam}, issn = {2190-4545}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-62353}, pages = {45 -- 59}, year = {2012}, language = {en} } @article{ZimmermannVonMangoldt2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas and Von Mangoldt, Hermann}, title = {Article 53}, isbn = {978-0-19-969299-6}, year = {2012}, language = {de} } @article{ZimmermannThienel2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas and Thienel, Tobias}, title = {Yugoslavia, cases and proceedings before the ICJ}, isbn = {978-0-19-929168-7}, year = {2012}, language = {en} } @article{ZimmermannThienel2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas and Thienel, Tobias}, title = {Article 60}, isbn = {978-0-19-969299-6}, year = {2012}, language = {de} } @book{ZimmermannOellersFrahmTomuschatetal.2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas and Oellers-Frahm, Karin and Tomuschat, Christian and Tams, Christian J.}, title = {The statute of the international court of justice : a commentary}, edition = {2. ed.}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, isbn = {978-0-19-969299-6}, pages = {1745 S.}, year = {2012}, language = {en} } @article{Zimmermann2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas}, title = {Amending the amendment provisions of the rome statute the kampala compromise on the crime of aggression and the law of treaties}, series = {Journal of international criminal justice}, volume = {10}, journal = {Journal of international criminal justice}, number = {1}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {1478-1387}, doi = {10.1093/jicj/mqs002}, pages = {209 -- 227}, year = {2012}, abstract = {The adoption, in Kampala in June 2010, of amendments to the Rome Statute on the crime of aggression was hailed as a historic milestone in the development of the international Criminal Court (ICC). However, the manner in which these amendments are supposed to enter into force runs the risk of undermining the rules of the international law of treaties, as well as the legality and acceptability of the Kampala compromise itself The author examines the relevant amendment procedures provided for in the ICC Statute and the compatibility with them of the amendment procedure chosen in Kampala and ultimately warns of the legal consequences which may follow from the Review Conference's somewhat-Alexandrian solution.}, language = {en} } @article{Zimmermann2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas}, title = {Abiding by and enforcing international humanitarian law in asymmetric warfare : the case of "operation cast lead"}, issn = {0554-498x}, year = {2012}, language = {en} } @article{Zimmermann2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas}, title = {Amending the amendment provisions of the rome statute : the kampala compromise on the crime of aggression and the law of treaties}, year = {2012}, language = {en} } @article{Zimmermann2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas}, title = {Grundrechtseingriffe durch deutsche Streitkraefte im Ausland und das Grundgesetz}, issn = {0514-6496}, year = {2012}, language = {de} } @book{Zimmermann2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas}, title = {Grundrechtsschutz zwischen Karlsruhe und Strassburg}, series = {Schriftenreihe der Juristischen Gesellschaft zu Berlin}, volume = {190}, journal = {Schriftenreihe der Juristischen Gesellschaft zu Berlin}, publisher = {de Gruyter}, address = {Berlin}, isbn = {978-3-11-029669-3}, doi = {10.1515/9783110296723}, pages = {36 S.}, year = {2012}, language = {de} } @article{Zimmermann2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas}, title = {Article 35}, isbn = {978-0-19-969299-6}, year = {2012}, language = {de} } @article{Zimmermann2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas}, title = {Menschenrechtsvertr{\"a}ge als Katalysatoren der V{\"o}lkerrechtsentwicklung}, isbn = {978-3-86956-196-7}, year = {2012}, language = {de} } @article{Zimmermann2012, author = {Zimmermann, Andreas}, title = {State sucession in other matters than treaties}, isbn = {978-0-19-929168-7}, year = {2012}, language = {en} }