@article{PalmerGregoryBaggeetal.2020,
  author    = {Palmer, Matthew D. and Gregory, Jonathan and Bagge, Meike and Calvert, Daley and Hagedoorn, Jan Marius and Howard, Tom and Klemann, Volker and Lowe, Jason A. and Roberts, Chris and Slangen, Aimee B. A. and Spada, Giorgio},
  title     = {Exploring the drivers of global and local sea-level change over the 21st century and beyond},
  series = {Earth's future},
  volume    = {8},
  journal   = {Earth's future},
  number    = {9},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {2328-4277},
  doi       = {10.1029/2019EF001413},
  pages     = {1 -- 25},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {We present a new set of global and local sea-level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5-based sea-level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea-level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea-level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea-level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual-to-decadal predictions of local sea-level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea-level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50\%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post-2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{PalmerGregoryBaggeetal.2020,
  author    = {Palmer, Matthew D. and Gregory, Jonathan and Bagge, Meike and Calvert, Daley and Hagedoorn, Jan Marius and Howard, Tom and Klemann, Volker and Lowe, Jason A. and Roberts, Chris and Slangen, Aimee B. A. and Spada, Giorgio},
  title     = {Exploring the drivers of global and local sea-level change over the 21st century and beyond},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {9},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-54988},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-549881},
  pages     = {27},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {We present a new set of global and local sea-level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5-based sea-level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea-level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea-level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea-level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual-to-decadal predictions of local sea-level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea-level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50\%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post-2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LeinsGrimmDrechsler2022,
  author    = {Leins, Johannes A. and Grimm, Volker and Drechsler, Martin},
  title     = {Large-scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands},
  series = {Ecology and evolution},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {Ecology and evolution},
  number    = {7},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {2045-7758},
  doi       = {10.1002/ece3.9063},
  pages     = {17},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{HuberKrummenauerPenaOrtizetal.2020,
  author    = {Huber, Veronika and Krummenauer, Linda and Pe{\~n}a-Ortiz, Cristina and Lange, Stefan and Gasparrini, Antonio and Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria and Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo and Frieler, Katja},
  title     = {Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-51651},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516511},
  pages     = {12},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe. Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability. Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49\% (95\%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81\% (95\%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45\% (95\%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53\% (95\%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88\% (95\%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise. Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HuberKrummenauerPenaOrtizetal.2020,
  author    = {Huber, Veronika and Krummenauer, Linda and Pe{\~n}a-Ortiz, Cristina and Lange, Stefan and Gasparrini, Antonio and Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria and Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo and Frieler, Katja},
  title     = {Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming},
  series = {Environmental Research},
  volume    = {186},
  journal   = {Environmental Research},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {San Diego, California},
  issn      = {0013-9351},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447},
  pages     = {1 -- 10},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe. Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability. Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49\% (95\%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81\% (95\%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45\% (95\%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53\% (95\%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88\% (95\%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise. Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{StoofLeichsenringPestryakovaEppetal.2020,
  author    = {Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Epp, Laura Saskia and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera},
  series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {5},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-51548},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515485},
  pages     = {16},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{StoofLeichsenringPestryakovaEppetal.2020,
  author    = {Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Epp, Laura Saskia and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera},
  series = {Journal of Biogeography},
  volume    = {47},
  journal   = {Journal of Biogeography},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0305-0270},
  doi       = {10.1111/jbi.13786},
  pages     = {1166 -- 1179},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HickmannWiderbergLedereretal.2021,
  author    = {Hickmann, Thomas and Widerberg, Oscar and Lederer, Markus and Pattberg, Philipp H.},
  title     = {The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat as an orchestrator in global climate policymaking},
  series = {International review of administrative sciences : an international journal of comparative public administration},
  volume    = {87},
  journal   = {International review of administrative sciences : an international journal of comparative public administration},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Sage},
  address   = {Los Angeles, Calif. [u.a.]},
  issn      = {0020-8523},
  doi       = {10.1177/0020852319840425},
  pages     = {21 -- 38},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Scholars have recently devoted increasing attention to the role and function of international bureaucracies in global policymaking. Some of them contend that international public officials have gained significant political influence in various policy fields. Compared to other international bureaucracies, the political leeway of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has been considered rather limited. Due to the specific problem structure of the policy domain of climate change, national governments endowed this intergovernmental treaty secretariat with a relatively narrow mandate. However, this article argues that in the past few years, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat has gradually loosened its straitjacket and expanded its original spectrum of activity by engaging different sub-national and non-state actors into a policy dialogue using facilitative orchestration as a mode of governance. The present article explores the recent evolution of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat and investigates the way in which it initiates, guides, broadens and strengthens sub-national and non-state climate actions to achieve progress in the international climate negotiations. <br /> Points for practitioners <br /> The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has lately adopted new roles and functions in global climate policymaking. While previously seen as a rather technocratic body that, first and foremost, serves national governments, the Climate Secretariat increasingly interacts with sub-national governments, civil society organizations and private companies to push the global response to climate change forward. We contend that the Climate Secretariat can contribute to global climate policymaking by coordinating and steering the initiatives of non-nation-state actors towards coherence and good practice.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{WindirschWoiwode2024,
  author    = {Windirsch-Woiwode, Torben},
  title     = {Permafrost carbon stabilisation by recreating a herbivore-driven ecosystem},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-62424},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-624240},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {X, 104, A-57},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {With Arctic ground as a huge and temperature-sensitive carbon reservoir, maintaining low ground temperatures and frozen conditions to prevent further carbon emissions that contrib-ute to global climate warming is a key element in humankind's fight to maintain habitable con-ditions on earth. Former studies showed that during the late Pleistocene, Arctic ground condi-tions were generally colder and more stable as the result of an ecosystem dominated by large herbivorous mammals and vast extents of graminoid vegetation - the mammoth steppe. Characterised by high plant productivity (grassland) and low ground insulation due to animal-caused compression and removal of snow, this ecosystem enabled deep permafrost aggrad-ation. Now, with tundra and shrub vegetation common in the terrestrial Arctic, these effects are not in place anymore. However, it appears to be possible to recreate this ecosystem local-ly by artificially increasing animal numbers, and hence keep Arctic ground cold to reduce or-ganic matter decomposition and carbon release into the atmosphere. By measuring thaw depth, total organic carbon and total nitrogen content, stable carbon iso-tope ratio, radiocarbon age, n-alkane and alcohol characteristics and assessing dominant vegetation types along grazing intensity transects in two contrasting Arctic areas, it was found that recreating conditions locally, similar to the mammoth steppe, seems to be possible. For permafrost-affected soil, it was shown that intensive grazing in direct comparison to non-grazed areas reduces active layer depth and leads to higher TOC contents in the active layer soil. For soil only frozen on top in winter, an increase of TOC with grazing intensity could not be found, most likely because of confounding factors such as vertical water and carbon movement, which is not possible with an impermeable layer in permafrost. In both areas, high animal activity led to a vegetation transformation towards species-poor graminoid-dominated landscapes with less shrubs. Lipid biomarker analysis revealed that, even though the available organic material is different between the study areas, in both permafrost-affected and sea-sonally frozen soils the organic material in sites affected by high animal activity was less de-composed than under less intensive grazing pressure. In conclusion, high animal activity af-fects decomposition processes in Arctic soils and the ground thermal regime, visible from reduced active layer depth in permafrost areas. Therefore, grazing management might be utilised to locally stabilise permafrost and reduce Arctic carbon emissions in the future, but is likely not scalable to the entire permafrost region.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GuzmanAriasSamprognaMohorMendiondo2022,
  author    = {Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro and Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme and Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario},
  title     = {Multi-driver ensemble to evaluate the water utility business interruption cost induced by hydrological drought risk scenarios in Brazil},
  series = {Urban water journal},
  journal   = {Urban water journal},
  publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group},
  address   = {Abingdon},
  issn      = {1573-062X},
  doi       = {10.1080/1573062X.2022.2058564},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Climate change and increasing water demand in urban environments necessitate planning water utility companies' finances. Traditionally, methods to estimate the direct water utility business interruption costs (WUBIC) caused by droughts have not been clearly established. We propose a multi-driver assessment method. We project the water yield using a hydrological model driven by regional climate models under radiative forcing scenarios. We project water demand under stationary and non-stationary conditions to estimate drought severity and duration, which are linked with pricing policies recently adopted by the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company. The results showed water insecurity. The non-stationary trend imposed larger differences in the drought resilience financial gap, suggesting that the uncertainties of WUBIC derived from demand and climate models are greater than those associated with radiative forcing scenarios. As populations increase, proactively controlling demand is recommended to avoid or minimize reactive policy changes during future drought events, repeating recent financial impacts.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WarszawskiKrieglerLentonetal.2021,
  author    = {Warszawski, Lila and Kriegler, Elmar and Lenton, Timothy M. and Gaffney, Owen and Jacob, Daniela and Klingenfeld, Daniel and Koide, Ryu and Costa, Mar{\´i}a M{\´a}{\~n}ez and Messner, Dirk and Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim and Schlosser, Peter and Takeuchi, Kazuhiko and van der Leeuw, Sander and Whiteman, Gail and Rockstr{\"o}m, Johan},
  title     = {All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C},
  series = {Environmental research letters},
  volume    = {16},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {IOP Publishing},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15-22 Gt CO2 (16-22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039-2061 (2049-2057 interquartile range).},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Schmidt2024,
  author    = {Schmidt, Lena Katharina},
  title     = {Altered hydrological and sediment dynamics in high-alpine areas - Exploring the potential of machine-learning for estimating past and future changes},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-62330},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-623302},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxi, 129},
  year      = {2024},
  abstract  = {Climate change fundamentally transforms glaciated high-alpine regions, with well-known cryospheric and hydrological implications, such as accelerating glacier retreat, transiently increased runoff, longer snow-free periods and more frequent and intense summer rainstorms. These changes affect the availability and transport of sediments in high alpine areas by altering the interaction and intensity of different erosion processes and catchment properties. Gaining insight into the future alterations in suspended sediment transport by high alpine streams is crucial, given its wide-ranging implications, e.g. for flood damage potential, flood hazard in downstream river reaches, hydropower production, riverine ecology and water quality. However, the current understanding of how climate change will impact suspended sediment dynamics in these high alpine regions is limited. For one, this is due to the scarcity of measurement time series that are long enough to e.g. infer trends. On the other hand, it is difficult - if not impossible - to develop process-based models, due to the complexity and multitude of processes involved in high alpine sediment dynamics. Therefore, knowledge has so far been confined to conceptual models (which do not facilitate deriving concrete timings or magnitudes for individual catchments) or qualitative estimates ('higher export in warmer years') that may not be able to capture decreases in sediment export. Recently, machine-learning approaches have gained in popularity for modeling sediment dynamics, since their black box nature tailors them to the problem at hand, i.e. relatively well-understood input and output data, linked by very complex processes. Therefore, the overarching aim of this thesis is to estimate sediment export from the high alpine {\"O}tztal valley in Tyrol, Austria, over decadal timescales in the past and future - i.e. timescales relevant to anthropogenic climate change. This is achieved by informing, extending, evaluating and applying a quantile regression forest (QRF) approach, i.e. a nonparametric, multivariate machine-learning technique based on random forest. The first study included in this thesis aimed to understand present sediment dynamics, i.e. in the period with available measurements (up to 15 years). To inform the modeling setup for the two subsequent studies, this study identified the most important predictors, areas within the catchments and time periods. To that end, water and sediment yields from three nested gauges in the upper {\"O}tztal, Vent, S{\"o}lden and Tumpen (98 to almost 800 km² catchment area, 930 to 3772 m a.s.l.) were analyzed for their distribution in space, their seasonality and spatial differences therein, and the relative importance of short-term events. The findings suggest that the areas situated above 2500 m a.s.l., containing glacier tongues and recently deglaciated areas, play a pivotal role in sediment generation across all sub-catchments. In contrast, precipitation events were relatively unimportant (on average, 21 \% of annual sediment yield was associated to precipitation events). Thus, the second and third study focused on the Vent catchment and its sub-catchment above gauge Vernagt (11.4 and 98 km², 1891 to 3772 m a.s.l.), due to their higher share of areas above 2500 m. Additionally, they included discharge, precipitation and air temperature (as well as their antecedent conditions) as predictors. The second study aimed to estimate sediment export since the 1960s/70s at gauges Vent and Vernagt. This was facilitated by the availability of long records of the predictors, discharge, precipitation and air temperature, and shorter records (four and 15 years) of turbidity-derived sediment concentrations at the two gauges. The third study aimed to estimate future sediment export until 2100, by applying the QRF models developed in the second study to pre-existing precipitation and temperature projections (EURO-CORDEX) and discharge projections (physically-based hydroclimatological and snow model AMUNDSEN) for the three representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The combined results of the second and third study show overall increasing sediment export in the past and decreasing export in the future. This suggests that peak sediment is underway or has already passed - unless precipitation changes unfold differently than represented in the projections or changes in the catchment erodibility prevail and override these trends. Despite the overall future decrease, very high sediment export is possible in response to precipitation events. This two-fold development has important implications for managing sediment, flood hazard and riverine ecology. This thesis shows that QRF can be a very useful tool to model sediment export in high-alpine areas. Several validations in the second study showed good performance of QRF and its superiority to traditional sediment rating curves - especially in periods that contained high sediment export events, which points to its ability to deal with threshold effects. A technical limitation of QRF is the inability to extrapolate beyond the range of values represented in the training data. We assessed the number and severity of such out-of-observation-range (OOOR) days in both studies, which showed that there were few OOOR days in the second study and that uncertainties associated with OOOR days were small before 2070 in the third study. As the pre-processed data and model code have been made publically available, future studies can easily test further approaches or apply QRF to further catchments.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Stiegler2023,
  author    = {Stiegler, Jonas},
  title     = {Mobile link functions in unpredictable agricultural landscapes},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-62202},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-622023},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {155},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Animal movement is a crucial aspect of life, influencing ecological and evolutionary processes. It plays an important role in shaping biodiversity patterns, connecting habitats and ecosystems. Anthropogenic landscape changes, such as in agricultural environments, can impede the movement of animals by affecting their ability to locate resources during recurring movements within home ranges and, on a larger scale, disrupt migration or dispersal. Inevitably, these changes in movement behavior have far-reaching consequences on the mobile link functions provided by species inhabiting such extensively altered matrix areas. In this thesis, I investigate the movement characteristics and activity patterns of the European hare (Lepus europaeus), aiming to understand their significance as a pivotal species in fragmented agricultural landscapes. I reveal intriguing results that shed light on the importance of hares for seed dispersal, the influence of personality traits on behavior and space use, the sensitivity of hares to extreme weather conditions, and the impacts of GPS collaring on mammals' activity patterns and movement behavior. In Chapter I, I conducted a controlled feeding experiment to investigate the potential impact of hares on seed dispersal. By additionally utilizing GPS data of hares in two contrasting landscapes, I demonstrated that hares play a vital role, acting as effective mobile linkers for many plant species in small and isolated habitat patches. The analysis of seed intake and germination success revealed that distinct seed traits, such as density, surface area, and shape, profoundly affect hares' ability to disperse seeds through endozoochory. These findings highlight the interplay between hares and plant communities and thus provide valuable insights into seed dispersal mechanisms in fragmented landscapes. By employing standardized behavioral tests in Chapter II, I revealed consistent behavioral responses among captive hares while simultaneously examining the intricate connection between personality traits and spatial patterns within wild hare populations. This analysis provides insights into the ecological interactions and dynamics within hare populations in agricultural habitats. Examining the concept of animal personality, I established a link between personality traits and hare behavior. I showed that boldness, measured through standardized tests, influences individual exploration styles, with shy and bold hares exhibiting distinct space use patterns. In addition to providing valuable insights into the role of animal personality in heterogeneous environments, my research introduced a novel approach demonstrating the feasibility of remotely assessing personality types using animal-borne sensors without additional disturbance of the focal individual. While climate conditions severely impact the activity and, consequently, the fitness of wildlife species across the globe, in Chapter III, I uncovered the sensitivity of hares to temperature, humidity, and wind speed during their peak reproduction period. I found a strong response in activity to high temperatures above 25°C, with a particularly pronounced effect during temperature extremes of over 35°C. The non-linear relationship between temperature and activity was characterized by contrasting responses observed for day and night. These findings emphasize the vulnerability of hares to climate change and the potential consequences for their fitness and population dynamics with the ongoing rise of temperature. Since such insights can only be obtained through capturing and tagging free-ranging animals, I assessed potential impacts and the recovery process post-collar attachment in Chapter IV. For this purpose, I examined the daily distances moved and the temporal-associated activity of 1451 terrestrial mammals out of 42 species during their initial tracking period. The disturbance intensity and the speed of recovery varied across species, with herbivores, females, and individuals captured and collared in relatively secluded study areas experiencing more pronounced disturbances due to limited anthropogenic influences. Mobile linkers are essential for maintaining biodiversity as they influence the dynamics and resilience of ecosystems. Furthermore, their ability to move through fragmented landscapes makes them a key component for restoring disturbed sites. Individual movement decisions determine the scale of mobile links, and understanding variations in space use among individuals is crucial for interpreting their functions. Climate change poses further challenges, with wildlife species expected to adjust their behavior, especially in response to high-temperature extremes, and comprehending the anthropogenic influence on animal movements will remain paramount to effective land use planning and the development of successful conservation strategies. This thesis provides a comprehensive ecological understanding of hares in agricultural landscapes. My research findings underscore the importance of hares as mobile linkers, the influence of personality traits on behavior and spatial patterns, the vulnerability of hares to extreme weather conditions, and the immediate consequences of collar attachment on mammalian movements. Thus, I contribute valuable insights to wildlife conservation and management efforts, aiding in developing strategies to mitigate the impact of environmental changes on hare populations. Moreover, these findings enable the development of methodologies aimed at minimizing the impacts of collaring while also identifying potential biases in the data, thereby benefiting both animal welfare and the scientific integrity of localization studies.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BoehnkeKrehlMoermannetal.2022,
  author    = {B{\"o}hnke, Denise and Krehl, Alice and Moermann, Kai and Volk, Rebekka and L{\"u}tzkendorf, Thomas and Naber, Elias and Becker, Ronja and Norra, Stefan},
  title     = {Mapping urban green and its ecosystem services at microscale-a methodological approach for climate adaptation and biodiversity},
  series = {Sustainability / Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Sustainability / Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)},
  number    = {15},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {2071-1050},
  doi       = {10.3390/su14159029},
  pages     = {26},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {The current awareness of the high importance of urban green leads to a stronger need for tools to comprehensively represent urban green and its benefits. A common scientific approach is the development of urban ecosystem services (UES) based on remote sensing methods at the city or district level. Urban planning, however, requires fine-grained data that match local management practices. Hence, this study linked local biotope and tree mapping methods to the concept of ecosystem services. The methodology was tested in an inner-city district in SW Germany, comparing publicly accessible areas and non-accessible courtyards. The results provide area-specific [m(2)] information on the green inventory at the microscale, whereas derived stock and UES indicators form the basis for comparative analyses regarding climate adaptation and biodiversity. In the case study, there are ten times more micro-scale green spaces in private courtyards than in the public space, as well as twice as many trees. The approach transfers a scientific concept into municipal planning practice, enables the quantitative assessment of urban green at the microscale and illustrates the importance for green stock data in private areas to enhance decision support in urban development. Different aspects concerning data collection and data availability are critically discussed.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SedovaKalkuhlMendelsohn2020,
  author    = {Sedova, Barbora and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Mendelsohn, Robert},
  title     = {Distributional impacts of weather and climate in rural India},
  series = {Economics of disasters and climate change},
  volume    = {4},
  journal   = {Economics of disasters and climate change},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Cham},
  issn      = {2511-1280},
  doi       = {10.1007/s41885-019-00051-1},
  pages     = {5 -- 44},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Climate-related costs and benefits may not be evenly distributed across the population. We study distributional implications of seasonal weather and climate on within-country inequality in rural India. Utilizing a first difference approach, we find that the poor are more sensitive to weather variations than the non-poor. The poor respond more strongly to (seasonal) temperature changes: negatively in the (warm) spring season, more positively in the (cold) rabi season. Less precipitation is harmful to the poor in the monsoon kharif season and beneficial in the winter and spring seasons. We show that adverse weather aggravates inequality by reducing consumption of the poor farming households. Future global warming predicted under RCP8.5 is likely to exacerbate these effects, reducing consumption of poor farming households by one third until the year 2100. We also find inequality in consumption across seasons with higher consumption during the harvest and lower consumption during the sowing seasons.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KalkuhlWenz2020,
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Wenz, Leonie},
  title     = {The impact of climate conditions on economic production},
  series = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
  volume    = {103},
  journal   = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {San Diego},
  issn      = {0095-0696},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7-14\% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73-142\$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92-181\$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchultesPiontekSoergeletal.2021,
  author    = {Schultes, Anselm and Piontek, Franziska and Soergel, Bjoern and Rogelj, Joeri and Baumstark, Lavinia and Kriegler, Elmar and Edenhofer, Ottmar and Luderer, Gunnar},
  title     = {Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts},
  series = {Environmental research letters},
  volume    = {16},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters},
  number    = {10},
  publisher = {IOP Publishing},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ce},
  pages     = {11},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Pathways toward limiting global warming to well below 2 ∘C, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2 ∘C. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of \$115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2 ∘C limit only.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HanKuhlicke2021,
  author    = {Han, Sungju and Kuhlicke, Christian},
  title     = {Barriers and drivers for mainstreaming nature-based solutions for flood risks},
  series = {International journal of disaster risk science},
  volume    = {12},
  journal   = {International journal of disaster risk science},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {2095-0055},
  doi       = {10.1007/s13753-021-00372-4},
  pages     = {661 -- 672},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Nature-based solutions (NBS) are seen as a promising adaptation measure that sustainably deals with diverse societal challenges, while simultaneously delivering multiple benefits. Nature-based solutions have been highlighted as a resilient and sustainable means of mitigating floods and other hazards globally. This study examined diverging conceptualizations of NBS, as well as the attitudinal (for example, emotions and beliefs) and contextual (for example, legal and political aspects) barriers and drivers of NBS for flood risks in South Korea. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 11 experts and focused on the topic of flood risk measures and NBS case studies. The analysis found 11 barriers and five drivers in the attitudinal domain, and 13 barriers and two drivers in the contextual domain. Most experts see direct monetary benefits as an important attitudinal factor for the public. Meanwhile, the cost-effectiveness of NBS and their capacity to cope with flood risks were deemed influential factors that could lead decision makers to opt for NBS. Among the contextual factors, insufficient systems to integrate NBS in practice and the ideologicalization of NBS policy were found to be peculiar barriers, which hinder consistent realization of initiatives and a long-term national plan for NBS. Understanding the barriers and drivers related to the mainstreaming of NBS is critical if we are to make the most of such solutions for society and nature. It is also essential that we have a shared definition, expectation, and vision of NBS.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{LiSpangenbergSchicksetal.2022,
  author    = {Li, Zhen and Spangenberg, Erik and Schicks, Judith Maria and Kempka, Thomas},
  title     = {Numerical Simulation of Coastal Sub-Permafrost Gas Hydrate Formation in the Mackenzie Delta, Canadian Arctic},
  series = {Energies},
  volume    = {15},
  journal   = {Energies},
  number    = {14},
  publisher = {MDPI},
  address   = {Basel},
  issn      = {1996-1073},
  doi       = {10.3390/en15144986},
  pages     = {25},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {The Mackenzie Delta (MD) is a permafrost-bearing region along the coasts of the Canadian Arctic which exhibits high sub-permafrost gas hydrate (GH) reserves. The GH occurring at the Mallik site in the MD is dominated by thermogenic methane (CH4), which migrated from deep conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, very likely through the present fault systems. Therefore, it is assumed that fluid flow transports dissolved CH4 upward and out of the deeper overpressurized reservoirs via the existing polygonal fault system and then forms the GH accumulations in the Kugmallit-Mackenzie Bay Sequences. We investigate the feasibility of this mechanism with a thermo-hydraulic-chemical numerical model, representing a cross section of the Mallik site. We present the first simulations that consider permafrost formation and thawing, as well as the formation of GH accumulations sourced from the upward migrating CH4-rich formation fluid. The simulation results show that temperature distribution, as well as the thickness and base of the ice-bearing permafrost are consistent with corresponding field observations. The primary driver for the spatial GH distribution is the permeability of the host sediments. Thus, the hypothesis on GH formation by dissolved CH4 originating from deeper geological reservoirs is successfully validated. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the permafrost has been substantially heated to 0.8-1.3 degrees C, triggered by the global temperature increase of about 0.44 degrees C and further enhanced by the Arctic Amplification effect at the Mallik site from the early 1970s to the mid-2000s.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Middelanis2023,
  author    = {Middelanis, Robin},
  title     = {Global response to local extremes—a storyline approach on economic loss propagation from weather extremes},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-61112},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-611127},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {vii, 237},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, Earth's average surface temperature is steadily increasing. As a consequence, many weather extremes are likely to become more frequent and intense. This poses a threat to natural and human systems, with local impacts capable of destroying exposed assets and infrastructure, and disrupting economic and societal activity. Yet, these effects are not locally confined to the directly affected regions, as they can trigger indirect economic repercussions through loss propagation along supply chains. As a result, local extremes yield a potentially global economic response. To build economic resilience and design effective adaptation measures that mitigate adverse socio-economic impacts of ongoing climate change, it is crucial to gain a comprehensive understanding of indirect impacts and the underlying economic mechanisms. Presenting six articles in this thesis, I contribute towards this understanding. To this end, I expand on local impacts under current and future climate, the resulting global economic response, as well as the methods and tools to analyze this response. Starting with a traditional assessment of weather extremes under climate change, the first article investigates extreme snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere until the end of the century. Analyzing an ensemble of global climate model projections reveals an increase of the most extreme snowfall, while mean snowfall decreases. Assessing repercussions beyond local impacts, I employ numerical simulations to compute indirect economic effects from weather extremes with the numerical agent-based shock propagation model Acclimate. This model is used in conjunction with the recently emerged storyline framework, which involves analyzing the impacts of a particular reference extreme event and comparing them to impacts in plausible counterfactual scenarios under various climate or socio-economic conditions. Using this approach, I introduce three primary storylines that shed light on the complex mechanisms underlying economic loss propagation. In the second and third articles of this thesis, I analyze storylines for the historical Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Harvey (2017) in the USA. For this, I first estimate local economic output losses and then simulate the resulting global economic response with Acclimate. The storyline for Hurricane Sandy thereby focuses on global consumption price anomalies and the resulting changes in consumption. I find that the local economic disruption leads to a global wave-like economic price ripple, with upstream effects propagating in the supplier direction and downstream effects in the buyer direction. Initially, an upstream demand reduction causes consumption price decreases, followed by a downstream supply shortage and increasing prices, before the anomalies decay in a normalization phase. A dominant upstream or downstream effect leads to net consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. Moreover, I demonstrate that a longer direct economic shock intensifies the downstream effect for many regions, leading to an overall consumption loss. The third article of my thesis builds upon the developed loss estimation method by incorporating projections to future global warming levels. I use these projections to explore how the global production response to Hurricane Harvey would change under further increased global warming. The results show that, while the USA is able to nationally offset direct losses in the reference configuration, other countries have to compensate for increasing shares of counterfactual future losses. This compensation is mainly achieved by large exporting countries, but gradually shifts towards smaller regions. These findings not only highlight the economy's ability to flexibly mitigate disaster losses to a certain extent, but also reveal the vulnerability and economic disadvantage of regions that are exposed to extreme weather events. The storyline in the fourth article of my thesis investigates the interaction between global economic stress and the propagation of losses from weather extremes. I examine indirect impacts of weather extremes — tropical cyclones, heat stress, and river floods — worldwide under two different economic conditions: an unstressed economy and a globally stressed economy, as seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. I demonstrate that the adverse effects of weather extremes on global consumption are strongly amplified when the economy is under stress. Specifically, consumption losses in the USA and China double and triple, respectively, due to the global economy's decreased capacity for disaster loss compensation. An aggravated scarcity intensifies the price response, causing consumption losses to increase. Advancing on the methods and tools used here, the final two articles in my thesis extend the agent-based model Acclimate and formalize the storyline approach. With the model extension described in the fifth article, regional consumers make rational choices on the goods bought such that their utility is maximized under a constrained budget. In an out-of-equilibrium economy, these rational consumers are shown to temporarily increase consumption of certain goods in spite of rising prices. The sixth article of my thesis proposes a formalization of the storyline framework, drawing on multiple studies including storylines presented in this thesis. The proposed guideline defines eight central elements that can be used to construct a storyline. Overall, this thesis contributes towards a better understanding of economic repercussions of weather extremes. It achieves this by providing assessments of local direct impacts, highlighting mechanisms and impacts of loss propagation, and advancing on methods and tools used.},
  language  = {en}
}