@phdthesis{Schrauth2022,
  author    = {Schrauth, Philipp},
  title     = {Agglomerations, air quality and urban transformation},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-58608},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-586087},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {253},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Die vorliegende Dissertation stellt empirische Untersuchungen {\"u}ber den Zusammenhang von st{\"a}dtischem Leben und dessen {\"o}konomische Kosten, insbesondere f{\"u}r die Umwelt, an. Dabei werden zum einen bestehende Forschungsl{\"u}cken des Einflusses von Bev{\"o}lkerungsdichte auf die Luftqualit{\"a}t geschlossen und zum anderen innovative Politikmaßnahmen im Verkehrsbereich untersucht, die Ballungsr{\"a}ume nachhaltiger gestalten sollen. Im Zentrum der Betrachtungen stehen Luftverschmutzung, Staus und Verkehrsunf{\"a}lle, die f{\"u}r Fragen der allgemeinen Wohlfahrt bedeutend sind und erhebliche Kostenfaktoren f{\"u}r urbanes Leben darstellen. Von ihnen ist ein betr{\"a}chtlicher Anteil der Weltbev{\"o}lkerung betroffen. W{\"a}hrend im Jahr 2018 bereits 55\% der Menschen weltweit in St{\"a}dten lebten, soll dieser Anteil bis zum Jahr 2050 ungef{\"a}hr 68\% betragen. Die vier in sich geschlossenen Kapitel dieser Arbeit lassen sich in zwei Abschnitte aufteilen: In den Kapiteln 2 und 3 werden neue kausale Erkenntnisse {\"u}ber das komplexe Zusammenspiel von st{\"a}dtischen Strukturen und Luftverschmutzung erbracht. Kapitel 4 und 5 untersuchen anschließend politische Maßnahmen zur F{\"o}rderung nicht-motorisierter Verkehrsmittel und deren Einfluss auf Luftqualit{\"a}t sowie Staugeschehen und Verkehrsunf{\"a}lle.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Krummenauer2022,
  author    = {Krummenauer, Linda},
  title     = {Global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under different climate futures},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-55929},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-559294},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xix, 161},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Heat and increasing ambient temperatures under climate change represent a serious threat to human health in cities. Heat exposure has been studied extensively at a global scale. Studies comparing a defined temperature threshold with the future daytime temperature during a certain period of time, had concluded an increase in threat to human health. Such findings however do not explicitly account for possible changes in future human heat adaptation and might even overestimate heat exposure. Thus, heat adaptation and its development is still unclear. Human heat adaptation refers to the local temperature to which populations are adjusted to. It can be inferred from the lowest point of the U- or V-shaped heat-mortality relationship (HMR), the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). While epidemiological studies inform on the MMT at the city scale for case studies, a general model applicable at the global scale to infer on temporal change in MMTs had not yet been realised. The conventional approach depends on data availability, their robustness, and on the access to daily mortality records at the city scale. Thorough analysis however must account for future changes in the MMT as heat adaptation happens partially passively. Human heat adaptation consists of two aspects: (1) the intensity of the heat hazard that is still tolerated by human populations, meaning the heat burden they can bear and (2) the wealth-induced technological, social and behavioural measures that can be employed to avoid heat exposure. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and quantify human heat adaptation among urban populations at a global scale under the current climate and to project future adaptation under climate change until the end of the century. To date, this has not yet been accomplished. The evaluation of global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under climate change comprises three levels of analysis. First, using the example of Germany, the MMT is calculated at the city level by applying the conventional method. Second, this thesis compiles a data pool of 400 urban MMTs to develop and train a new model capable of estimating MMTs on the basis of physical and socio-economic city characteristics using multivariate non-linear multivariate regression. The MMT is successfully described as a function of the current climate, the topography and the socio-economic standard, independently of daily mortality data for cities around the world. The city-specific MMT estimates represents a measure of human heat adaptation among the urban population. In a final third analysis, the model to derive human heat adaptation was adjusted to be driven by projected climate and socio-economic variables for the future. This allowed for estimation of the MMT and its change for 3 820 cities worldwide for different combinations of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways until 2100. The knowledge on the evolution of heat adaptation in the future is a novelty as mostly heat exposure and its future development had been researched. In this work, changes in heat adaptation and exposure were analysed jointly. A wide range of possible health-related outcomes up to 2100 was the result, of which two scenarios with the highest socio-economic developments but opposing strong warming levels were highlighted for comparison. Strong economic growth based upon fossil fuel exploitation is associated with a high gain in heat adaptation, but may not be able to compensate for the associated negative health effects due to increased heat exposure in 30\% to 40\% of the cities investigated caused by severe climate change. A slightly less strong, but sustainable growth brings moderate gains in heat adaptation but a lower heat exposure and exposure reductions in 80\% to 84\% of the cities in terms of frequency (number of days exceeding the MMT) and intensity (magnitude of the MMT exceedance) due to a milder global warming. Choosing a 2 ° C compatible development by 2100 would therefore lower the risk of heat-related mortality at the end of the century. In summary, this thesis makes diverse and multidisciplinary contributions to a deeper understanding of human adaptation to heat under the current and the future climate. It is one of the first studies to carry out a systematic and statistical analysis of urban characteristics which are useful as MMT drivers to establish a generalised model of human heat adaptation, applicable at the global level. A broad range of possible heat-related health options for various future scenarios was shown for the first time. This work is of relevance for the assessment of heat-health impacts in regions where mortality data are not accessible or missing. The results are useful for health care planning at the meso- and macro-level and to urban- and climate change adaptation planning. Lastly, beyond having met the posed objective, this thesis advances research towards a global future impact assessment of heat on human health by providing an alternative method of MMT estimation, that is spatially and temporally flexible in its application.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BansardHickmannKern2019,
  author    = {Bansard, Jennifer S. and Hickmann, Thomas and Kern, Kristine},
  title     = {Pathways to urban sustainability},
  series = {GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society},
  volume    = {28},
  journal   = {GAIA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Oekom Verlag},
  address   = {M{\"u}nchen},
  issn      = {0940-5550},
  doi       = {10.14512/gaia.28.2.9},
  pages     = {112 -- 118},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Recent years have seen a considerable broadening of the ambitions in urban sustainability policy-making. With its Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11 Making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable, the 2030 Agenda stresses the critical role of cities in achieving sustainable development. In the context of SDG17 on partnerships, emphasis is also placed on the role of researchers and other scientific actors as change agents in the sustainability transformation. Against this backdrop, this article sheds light on different pathways through which science can contribute to urban sustainability. In particular, we discern four forms of science-policy-society interactions as key vectors: 1. sharing knowledge and providing scientific input to urban sustainability policy-making; 2. implementing transformative research projects; 3. contributing to local capacity building; and 4. self-governing towards sustainability. The pathways of influence are illustrated with empirical examples, and their interlinkages and limitations are discussed. We contend that there are numerous opportunities for actors from the field of sustainability science to engage with political and societal actors to enhance sustainable development at the local level.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Gudipudi2017,
  author    = {Gudipudi, Venkata Ramana},
  title     = {Cities and global sustainability},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407113},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxii, 101},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {In the wake of 21st century, humanity witnessed a phenomenal raise of urban agglomerations as powerhouses for innovation and socioeconomic growth. Driving much of national (and in few instances even global) economy, such a gargantuan raise of cities is also accompanied by subsequent increase in energy, resource consumption and waste generation. Much of anthropogenic transformation of Earth's environment in terms of environmental pollution at local level to planetary scale in the form of climate change is currently taking place in cities. Projected to be crucibles for entire humanity by the end of this century, the ultimate fate of humanity predominantly lies in the hands of technological innovation, urbanites' attitudes towards energy/resource consumption and development pathways undertaken by current and future cities. Considering the unparalleled energy, resource consumption and emissions currently attributed to global cities, this thesis addresses these issues from an efficiency point of view. More specifically, this thesis addresses the influence of population size, density, economic geography and technology in improving urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emission efficiency and identifies the factors leading to improved eco-efficiency in cities. In order to investigate the in uence of these factors in improving emission and resource efficiency in cities, a multitude of freely available datasets were coupled with some novel methodologies and analytical approaches in this thesis. Merging the well-established Kaya Identity to the recently developed urban scaling laws, an Urban Kaya Relation is developed to identify whether large cities are more emission efficient and the intrinsic factors leading to such (in)efficiency. Applying Urban Kaya Relation to a global dataset of 61 cities in 12 countries, this thesis identifed that large cities in developed regions of the world will bring emission efficiency gains because of the better technologies implemented in these cities to produce and utilize energy consumption while the opposite is the case for cities in developing regions. Large cities in developing countries are less efficient mainly because of their affluence and lack of efficient technologies. Apart from the in uence of population size on emission efficiency, this thesis identified the crucial role played by population density in improving building and on-road transport sector related emission efficiency in cities. This is achieved by applying the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA) on two different gridded land use datasets and a standard emission inventory to attribute these sectoral emissions to all inhabited settlements in the USA. Results show that doubling the population density would entail a reduction in the total CO2 emissions in buildings and on-road sectors typically by at least 42 \%. Irrespective of their population size and density, cities are often blamed for their intensive resource consumption that threatens not only local but also global sustainability. This thesis merged the concept of urban metabolism with benchmarking and identified cities which are eco-efficient. These cities enable better socioeconomic conditions while being less burden to the environment. Three environmental burden indicators (annual average NO2 concentration, per capita waste generation and water consumption) and two socioeconomic indicators (GDP per capita and employment ratio) for 88 most populous European cities are considered in this study. Using two different non-parametric ranking methods namely regression residual ranking and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), eco-efficient cities and their determining factors are identified. This in-depth analysis revealed that mature cities with well-established economic structures such as Munich, Stockholm and Oslo are eco-efficient. Further, correlations between objective eco-efficiency ranking with each of the indicator rankings and the ranking of urbanites' subjective perception about quality of life are analyzed. This analysis revealed that urbanites' perception about quality of life is not merely confined to the socioeconomic well-being but rather to their combination with lower environmental burden. In summary, the findings of this dissertation has three general conclusions for improving emission and ecological efficiency in cities. Firstly, large cities in emerging nations face a huge challenge with respect to improving their emission efficiency. The task in front of these cities is threefold: (1) deploying efficient technologies for the generation of electricity and improvement of public transportation to unlock their leap frogging potential, (2) addressing the issue of energy poverty and (3) ensuring that these cities do not develop similar energy consumption patterns with infrastructure lock-in behavior similar to those of cities in developed regions. Secondly, the on-going urban sprawl as a global phenomenon will decrease the emission efficiency within the building and transportation sector. Therefore, local policy makers should identify adequate fiscal and land use policies to curb urban sprawl. Lastly, since mature cities with well-established economic structures are more eco-efficient and urbanites' perception re ects its combination with decreasing environmental burden; there is a need to adopt and implement strategies which enable socioeconomic growth in cities whilst decreasing their environment burden.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{RybskiReusserWinzetal.2016,
  author    = {Rybski, Diego and Reusser, Dominik Edwin and Winz, Anna-Lena and Fichtner, Christina and Sterzel, Till and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Cities as nuclei of sustainability?},
  series = {Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science},
  volume    = {44},
  journal   = {Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Sage Publ.},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2399-8083},
  doi       = {10.1177/0265813516638340},
  pages     = {425 -- 440},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {We have assembled CO2 emission figures from collections of urban GHG emission estimates published in peer-reviewed journals or reports from research institutes and non-governmental organizations. Analyzing the scaling with population size, we find that the exponent is development dependent with a transition from super- to sub-linear scaling. From the climate change mitigation point of view, the results suggest that urbanization is desirable in developed countries. Further, we compare this analysis with a second scaling relation, namely the fundamental allometry between city population and area, and propose that density might be a decisive quantity too. Last, we derive the theoretical country-wide urban emissions by integration and obtain a dependence on the size of the largest city.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{BoettleRybskiKropp2016,
  author    = {Boettle, Markus and Rybski, Diego and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen},
  title     = {Quantifying the effect of sea level rise and flood defence},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {559},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-41240},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412405},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {In contrast to recent advances in projecting sea levels, estimations about the economic impact of sea level rise are vague. Nonetheless, they are of great importance for policy making with regard to adaptation and greenhouse-gas mitigation. Since the damage is mainly caused by extreme events, we propose a stochastic framework to estimate the monetary losses from coastal floods in a confined region. For this purpose, we follow a Peak-over-Threshold approach employing a Poisson point process and the Generalised Pareto Distribution. By considering the effect of sea level rise as well as potential adaptation scenarios on the involved parameters, we are able to study the development of the annual damage. An application to the city of Copenhagen shows that a doubling of losses can be expected from a mean sea level increase of only 11 cm. In general, we find that for varying parameters the expected losses can be well approximated by one of three analytical expressions depending on the extreme value parameters. These findings reveal the complex interplay of the involved parameters and allow conclusions of fundamental relevance. For instance, we show that the damage typically increases faster than the sea level rise itself. This in turn can be of great importance for the assessment of sea level rise impacts on the global scale. Our results are accompanied by an assessment of uncertainty, which reflects the stochastic nature of extreme events. While the absolute value of uncertainty about the flood damage increases with rising mean sea levels, we find that it decreases in relation to the expected damage.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{SvirejevaHopkins2004,
  author    = {Svirejeva-Hopkins, Anastasia},
  title     = {Urbanised territories as a specific component of the global carbon cycle},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0001512},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2004},
  abstract  = {Wir betrachten folgende Teile: die zus{\"a}tzlichen Kohlenstoff(C)-emissionen, welche aus der Umwandlung von nat{\"u}rlichem Umland durch Stadtwachstum resultieren, und die {\"A}nderung des C-Flusses durch 'urbanisierte' {\"O}kosysteme, soweit atmosph{\"a}risches C durch diese in umliegende nat{\"u}rliche {\"O}kosysteme entlang der Kette \“Atmosph{\"a}re -> Vegetation -> abgestorbene organische Substanzen\” gepumpt wird: d.h. C-Export; f{\"u}r den Zeitraum von 1980 bis 2050. Als Szenario nutzen wir Prognosen der regionalen Stadtbev{\"o}lkerung, welche durch ein 'Hybridmodell' generiert werden f{\"u}r acht Regionen. Alle Sch{\"a}tzungen der C-Fl{\"u}sse basieren auf zwei Modellen: das Regression Modell und das sogenannte G-Modell. Die Siedlungsfl{\"a}che, welche mit dem Wachstum der Stadtbev{\"o}lkerung zunimmt, wird in 'Gr{\"u}nfl{\"a}chen' (Parks, usw.), Geb{\"a}udefl{\"a}chen und informell st{\"a}dtisch genutzte Fl{\"a}chen (Slums, illegale Lagerpl{\"a}tze, usw.) unterteilt. Es werden j{\"a}hrlich die regionale und globale Dynamik der C-Emissionen und des C-Exports sowie die C-Gesamtbilanz berechnet. Dabei liefern beide Modelle qualitativ {\"a}hnliche Ergebnisse, jedoch gibt es einige quantitative Unterschiede. Im ersten Modell erreicht die globale Jahresemission f{\"u}r die Dekade 2020-2030 resultierend aus der Landnutzungs{\"a}nderung ein Maximum von 205 Mt/a. Die maximalen Beitr{\"a}ge zur globalen Emission werden durch China, die asiatische und die pazifische Region erbracht. Im zweiten Modell erh{\"o}ht sich die j{\"a}hrliche globale Emission von 1.12 GtC/a f{\"u}r 1980 auf 1.25 GtC/a f{\"u}r 2005 (1Gt = 109 t). Danach beginnt eine Reduzierung. Vergleichen wir das Emissionmaximum mit der Emission durch Abholzung im Jahre 1980 (1.36 GtC/a), k{\"o}nnen wir konstatieren, daß die Urbanisierung damit in vergleichbarer Gr{\"o}sse zur Emission beitr{\"a}gt. Bezogen auf die globale Dynamik des j{\"a}hrlichen C-Exports durch Urbanisierung beobachten wir ein monotones Wachstum bis zum nahezu dreifachen Wert von 24 MtC/a f{\"u}r 1980 auf 66 MtC/a f{\"u}r 2050 im ersten Modell, bzw. im zweiten Modell von 249 MtC/a f{\"u}r 1980 auf 505 MtC/a f{\"u}r 2050. Damit ist im zweiten Fall die Transportleistung der Siedlungsgebiete mit dem C-Transport durch Fl{\"u}sse in die Ozeane (196 .. 537 MtC/a) vergleichbar. Bei der Absch{\"a}tzung der Gesamtbilanz finden wir, daß die Urbanisierung die Bilanz in Richtung zu einer 'Senke' verschiebt. Entsprechend dem zweiten Modell beginnt sich die C-Gesamtbilanz (nach ann{\"a}hernder Konstanz) ab dem Jahre 2000 mit einer fast konstanten Rate zu verringern. Wenn das Maximum im Jahre 2000 bei 905MtC/a liegt, f{\"a}llt dieser Wert anschliessend bis zum Jahre 2050 auf 118 MtC/a. Bei Extrapolation dieser Dynamik in die Zukunft k{\"o}nnen wir annehmen, daß am Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts die \“urbane\” C-Gesamtbilanz Null bzw. negative Werte erreicht.},
  language  = {en}
}