@article{LeinsBanitzGrimmetal.2020,
  author    = {Leins, Johannes A. and Banitz, Thomas and Grimm, Volker and Drechsler, Martin},
  title     = {High-resolution PVA along large environmental gradients to model the combined effects of climate change and land use timing},
  series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and systems ecology},
  volume    = {440},
  journal   = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and systems ecology},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0304-3800},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109355},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Both climate change and land use regimes affect the viability of populations, but they are often studied separately. Moreover, population viability analyses (PVAs) often ignore the effects of large environmental gradients and use temporal resolutions that are too coarse to take into account that different stages of a population's life cycle may be affected differently by climate change. Here, we present the High-resolution Large Environmental Gradient (HiLEG) model and apply it in a PVA with daily resolution based on daily climate projections for Northwest Germany. We used the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) as the target species and investigated (1) the effects of climate change on the viability and spatial distribution of the species, (2) the influence of the timing of grassland mowing on the species and (3) the interaction between the effects of climate change and grassland mowing. The stageand cohort-based model was run for the spatially differentiated environmental conditions temperature and soil moisture across the whole study region. We implemented three climate change scenarios and analyzed the population dynamics for four consecutive 20-year periods. Climate change alone would lead to an expansion of the regions suitable for the LMG, as warming accelerates development and due to reduced drought stress. However, in combination with land use, the timing of mowing was crucial, as this disturbance causes a high mortality rate in the aboveground life stages. Assuming the same date of mowing throughout the region, the impact on viability varied greatly between regions due to the different climate conditions. The regional negative effects of the mowing date can be divided into five phases: (1) In early spring, the populations were largely unaffected in all the regions; (2) between late spring and early summer, they were severely affected only in warm regions; (3) in summer, all the populations were severely affected so that they could hardly survive; (4) between late summer and early autumn, they were severely affected in cold regions; and (5) in autumn, the populations were equally affected across all regions. The duration and start of each phase differed slightly depending on the climate change scenario and simulation period, but overall, they showed the same pattern. Our model can be used to identify regions of concern and devise management recommendations. The model can be adapted to the life cycle of different target species, climate projections and disturbance regimes. We show with our adaption of the HiLEG model that high-resolution PVAs and applications on large environmental gradients can be reconciled to develop conservation strategies capable of dealing with multiple stressors.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchmidtLischeidNendel2019,
  author    = {Schmidt, Martin and Lischeid, Gunnar and Nendel, Claas},
  title     = {Microclimate and matter dynamics in transition zones of forest to arable land},
  series = {Agricultural and forest meteorology},
  volume    = {268},
  journal   = {Agricultural and forest meteorology},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0168-1923},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.01.001},
  pages     = {1 -- 10},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Human-driven fragmentation of landscapes leads to the formation of transition zones between ecosystems that are characterised by fluxes of matter, energy and information. These transition zones may offer rather inhospitable habitats that could jeopardise biodiversity. On the other hand, transition zones are also reported to be hotspots for biodiversity and even evolutionary processes. The general mechanisms and influence of processes in transition zones are poorly understood. Although heterogeneity and diversity of land use of fragments and the transition zones between them play an important role, most studies only refer to forested transition zones. Often, only an extrapolation of measurements in the different fragments themselves is reported to determine gradients in transition zones. This paper contributes to a quantitative understanding of agricultural landscapes beyond individual ecotopes, and towards connected ecosystem mosaics that may be beneficial for the provision of ecosystem services.},
  language  = {en}
}