@phdthesis{Seelig2021,
  author    = {Seelig, Stefan},
  title     = {Parafoveal processing of lexical information during reading},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-50874},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508743},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xi, 113},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {During sentence reading the eyes quickly jump from word to word to sample visual information with the high acuity of the fovea. Lexical properties of the currently fixated word are known to affect the duration of the fixation, reflecting an interaction of word processing with oculomotor planning. While low level properties of words in the parafovea can likewise affect the current fixation duration, results concerning the influence of lexical properties have been ambiguous (Drieghe, Rayner, \& Pollatsek, 2008; Kliegl, Nuthmann, \& Engbert, 2006). Experimental investigations of such lexical parafoveal-on-foveal effects using the boundary paradigm have instead shown, that lexical properties of parafoveal previews affect fixation durations on the upcoming target words (Risse \& Kliegl, 2014). However, the results were potentially confounded with effects of preview validity. The notion of parafoveal processing of lexical information challenges extant models of eye movements during reading. Models containing serial word processing assumptions have trouble explaining such effects, as they usually couple successful word processing to saccade planning, resulting in skipping of the parafoveal word. Although models with parallel word processing are less restricted, in the SWIFT model (Engbert, Longtin, \& Kliegl, 2002) only processing of the foveal word can directly influence the saccade latency. Here we combine the results of a boundary experiment (Chapter 2) with a predictive modeling approach using the SWIFT model, where we explore mechanisms of parafoveal inhibition in a simulation study (Chapter 4). We construct a likelihood function for the SWIFT model (Chapter 3) and utilize the experimental data in a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation (Chapter 3 \& 4). The experimental results show a substantial effect of parafoveal preview frequency on fixation durations on the target word, which can be clearly distinguished from the effect of preview validity. Using the eye movement data from the participants, we demonstrate the feasibility of the Bayesian approach even for a small set of estimated parameters, by comparing summary statistics of experimental and simulated data. Finally, we can show that the SWIFT model can account for the lexical preview effects, when a mechanism for parafoveal inhibition is added. The effects of preview validity were modeled best, when processing dependent saccade cancellation was added for invalid trials. In the simulation study only the control condition of the experiment was used for parameter estimation, allowing for cross validation. Simultaneously the number of free parameters was increased. High correlations of summary statistics demonstrate the capabilities of the parameter estimation approach. Taken together, the results advocate for a better integration of experimental data into computational modeling via parameter estimation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Kotha2018,
  author    = {Kotha, Sreeram Reddy},
  title     = {Quantification of uncertainties in seismic ground-motion prediction},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-415743},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xii, 101},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The purpose of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) at a construction site is to provide the engineers with a probabilistic estimate of ground-motion level that could be equaled or exceeded at least once in the structure's design lifetime. A certainty on the predicted ground-motion allows the engineers to confidently optimize structural design and mitigate the risk of extensive damage, or in worst case, a collapse. It is therefore in interest of engineering, insurance, disaster mitigation, and security of society at large, to reduce uncertainties in prediction of design ground-motion levels. In this study, I am concerned with quantifying and reducing the prediction uncertainty of regression-based Ground-Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). Essentially, GMPEs are regressed best-fit formulae relating event, path, and site parameters (predictor variables) to observed ground-motion values at the site (prediction variable). GMPEs are characterized by a parametric median (μ) and a non-parametric variance (σ) of prediction. μ captures the known ground-motion physics i.e., scaling with earthquake rupture properties (event), attenuation with distance from source (region/path), and amplification due to local soil conditions (site); while σ quantifies the natural variability of data that eludes μ. In a broad sense, the GMPE prediction uncertainty is cumulative of 1) uncertainty on estimated regression coefficients (uncertainty on μ,σ_μ), and 2) the inherent natural randomness of data (σ). The extent of μ parametrization, the quantity, and quality of ground-motion data used in a regression, govern the size of its prediction uncertainty: σ_μ and σ. In the first step, I present the impact of μ parametrization on the size of σ_μ and σ. Over-parametrization appears to increase the σ_μ, because of the large number of regression coefficients (in μ) to be estimated with insufficient data. Under-parametrization mitigates σ_μ, but the reduced explanatory strength of μ is reflected in inflated σ. For an optimally parametrized GMPE, a ~10\% reduction in σ is attained by discarding the low-quality data from pan-European events with incorrect parametric values (of predictor variables). In case of regions with scarce ground-motion recordings, without under-parametrization, the only way to mitigate σ_μ is to substitute long-term earthquake data at a location with short-term samples of data across several locations - the Ergodic Assumption. However, the price of ergodic assumption is an increased σ, due to the region-to-region and site-to-site differences in ground-motion physics. σ of an ergodic GMPE developed from generic ergodic dataset is much larger than that of non-ergodic GMPEs developed from region- and site-specific non-ergodic subsets - which were too sparse to produce their specific GMPEs. Fortunately, with the dramatic increase in recorded ground-motion data at several sites across Europe and Middle-East, I could quantify the region- and site-specific differences in ground-motion scaling and upgrade the GMPEs with 1) substantially more accurate region- and site-specific μ for sites in Italy and Turkey, and 2) significantly smaller prediction variance σ. The benefit of such enhancements to GMPEs is quite evident in my comparison of PSHA estimates from ergodic versus region- and site-specific GMPEs; where the differences in predicted design ground-motion levels, at several sites in Europe and Middle-Eastern regions, are as large as ~50\%. Resolving the ergodic assumption with mixed-effects regressions is feasible when the quantified region- and site-specific effects are physically meaningful, and the non-ergodic subsets (regions and sites) are defined a priori through expert knowledge. In absence of expert definitions, I demonstrate the potential of machine learning techniques in identifying efficient clusters of site-specific non-ergodic subsets, based on latent similarities in their ground-motion data. Clustered site-specific GMPEs bridge the gap between site-specific and fully ergodic GMPEs, with their partially non-ergodic μ and, σ ~15\% smaller than the ergodic variance. The methodological refinements to GMPE development produced in this study are applicable to new ground-motion datasets, to further enhance certainty of ground-motion prediction and thereby, seismic hazard assessment. Advanced statistical tools show great potential in improving the predictive capabilities of GMPEs, but the fundamental requirement remains: large quantity of high-quality ground-motion data from several sites for an extended time-period.},
  language  = {en}
}