@phdthesis{Rottler2021,
  author    = {Rottler, Erwin},
  title     = {Transient merging of two Rhine flow regimes from climate change},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-51766},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517665},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {XXXII, 155},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {River flooding poses a threat to numerous cities and communities all over the world. The detection, quantification and attribution of changes in flood characteristics is key to assess changes in flood hazard and help affected societies to timely mitigate and adapt to emerging risks. The Rhine River is one of the major European rivers and numerous large cities reside at its shores. Runoff from several large tributaries superimposes in the main channel shaping the complex from regime. Rainfall, snowmelt as well as ice-melt are important runoff components. The main objective of this thesis is the investigation of a possible transient merging of nival and pluvial Rhine flood regimes under global warming. Rising temperatures cause snowmelt to occur earlier in the year and rainfall to be more intense. The superposition of snowmelt-induced floods originating from the Alps with more intense rainfall-induced runoff from pluvial-type tributaries might create a new flood type with potentially disastrous consequences. To introduce the topic of changing hydrological flow regimes, an interactive web application that enables the investigation of runoff timing and runoff season- ality observed at river gauges all over the world is presented. The exploration and comparison of a great diversity of river gauges in the Rhine River Basin and beyond indicates that river systems around the world undergo fundamental changes. In hazard and risk research, the provision of background as well as real-time information to residents and decision-makers in an easy accessible way is of great importance. Future studies need to further harness the potential of scientifically engineered online tools to improve the communication of information related to hazards and risks. A next step is the development of a cascading sequence of analytical tools to investigate long-term changes in hydro-climatic time series. The combination of quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition allows for the extraction of high resolution signals and the identification of mechanisms driving changes in river runoff. Results point out that the construction and operation of large reservoirs in the Alps is an important factor redistributing runoff from summer to winter and hint at more (intense) rainfall in recent decades, particularly during winter, in turn increasing high runoff quantiles. The development and application of the analytical sequence represents a further step in the scientific quest to disentangling natural variability, climate change signals and direct human impacts. The in-depth analysis of in situ snow measurements and the simulations of the Alpine snow cover using a physically-based snow model enable the quantification of changes in snowmelt in the sub-basin upstream gauge Basel. Results confirm previous investigations indicating that rising temperatures result in a decrease in maximum melt rates. Extending these findings to a catchment perspective, a threefold effect of rising temperatures can be identified: snowmelt becomes weaker, occurs earlier and forms at higher elevations. Furthermore, results indicate that due to the wide range of elevations in the basin, snowmelt does not occur simultaneously at all elevation, but elevation bands melt together in blocks. The beginning and end of the release of meltwater seem to be determined by the passage of warm air masses, and the respective elevation range affected by accompanying temperatures and snow availability. Following those findings, a hypothesis describing elevation-dependent compensation effects in snowmelt is introduced: In a warmer world with similar sequences of weather conditions, snowmelt is moved upward to higher elevations, i.e., the block of elevation bands providing most water to the snowmelt-induced runoff is located at higher elevations. The movement upward the elevation range makes snowmelt in individual elevation bands occur earlier. The timing of the snowmelt-induced runoff, however, stays the same. Meltwater from higher elevations, at least partly, replaces meltwater from elevations below. The insights on past and present changes in river runoff, snow covers and underlying mechanisms form the basis of investigations of potential future changes in Rhine River runoff. The mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) forced with an ensemble of climate projection scenarios is used to analyse future changes in streamflow, snowmelt, precipitation and evapotranspiration at 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 ◦ C global warming. Simulation results suggest that future changes in flood characteristics in the Rhine River Basin are controlled by increased precipitation amounts on the one hand, and reduced snowmelt on the other hand. Rising temperatures deplete seasonal snowpacks. At no time during the year, a warming climate results in an increase in the risk of snowmelt-driven flooding. Counterbalancing effects between snowmelt and precipitation often result in only little and transient changes in streamflow peaks. Although, investigations point at changes in both rainfall and snowmelt-driven runoff, there are no indications of a transient merging of nival and pluvial Rhine flood regimes due to climate warming. Flooding in the main tributaries of the Rhine, such as the Moselle River, as well as the High Rhine is controlled by both precipitation and snowmelt. Caution has to be exercised labelling sub-basins such as the Moselle catchment as purely pluvial-type or the Rhine River Basin at Basel as purely nival-type. Results indicate that this (over-) simplifications can entail misleading assumptions with regard to flood-generating mechanisms and changes in flood hazard. In the framework of this thesis, some progress has been made in detecting, quantifying and attributing past, present and future changes in Rhine flow/flood characteristics. However, further studies are necessary to pin down future changes in the flood genesis of Rhine floods, particularly very rare events.},
  language  = {en}
}