@article{PatyniakLandgrafDzhumabaevaetal.2017, author = {Patyniak, Magda and Landgraf, Angela and Dzhumabaeva, Atyrgul and Abdrakhmatov, Kanatbek E. and Rosenwinkel, Swenja and Korup, Oliver and Preusser, Frank and Fohlmeister, Jens Bernd and Arrowsmith, J. Ramon and Strecker, Manfred}, title = {Paleoseismic Record of Three Holocene Earthquakes Rupturing the Issyk-Ata Fault near Bishkek, North Kyrgyzstan}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {107}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120170083}, pages = {2721 -- 2737}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The northern edge of the western central Tien Shan range is bounded by the Issyk-Ata fault situated south of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Contraction in this thick-skinned orogen occurs with low-strain accumulation and long earthquake recurrence intervals. In the nineteenth to twentieth centuries, a sequence of large earthquakes with magnitudes between 6.9 and 8 affected the northern Tien Shan but left nearly the entire extent of the Issyk-Ata fault unruptured. Here, the only known historic earthquake ruptured in A.D. 1885 (M6.9) along the western end of the Issyk-Ata fault. Because earthquakes in low-strain regions often tend to cluster in time and may promote failure along nearby structures, the earthquake history of the northern Tien Shan represents an exceptional structural setting for studying fault behavior affected by an intraplate earthquake sequence. We present a paleoseismological study from one site (Belek) along the Issyk-Ata fault located east of the A.D. 1885 epicentral area. Our analysis combines a range of tools, including photogrammetry, differential Global Positioning System, 3D visualization, and age modeling with different dating methods (infrared stimulated luminescence, radiocarbon, U-series) to improve the reliability of an event chronology for the trench stratigraphy and fault geometry. We were able to distinguish three different surfacerupturing paleoearthquakes; these affected the area before 10.5 +/- 1.1 cal ka B.P., at similar to 5.6 +/- 1.0 cal ka B.P., and at similar to 630 +/- 100 cal B.P., respectively. Associated paleomagnitudes for the last two earthquakes range between M6.7 and 7.4, with a cumulative slip rate of 0.7 +/- 0.32 mm/yr. We did not find evidence for the A.D. 1885 event at Belek. Our study yielded two main overall results: first, it extends the regional historic and paleoseismic record; second, the documented rupture events along the Issyk-Ata fault suggest that this fault was not affected in its entirety; instead, these events indicate segmented rupture behavior.}, language = {en} } @article{RosenwinkelKorupLandgrafetal.2015, author = {Rosenwinkel, Swenja and Korup, Oliver and Landgraf, Angela and Dzhumabaeva, Atyrgul}, title = {Limits to lichenometry}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {129}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.10.031}, pages = {229 -- 238}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Lichenometry is a straightforward and inexpensive method for dating Holocene rock surfaces. The rationale is that the diameter of the largest lichen scales with the age of the originally fresh rock surface that it colonised. The success of the method depends on finding the largest lichen diameters, a suitable lichen-growth model, and a robust calibration curve. Recent critique of the method motivates us to revisit the accuracy and uncertainties of lichenometry. Specifically, we test how well lichenometry is capable of resolving the ages of different lobes of large active rock glaciers in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan. We use a bootstrapped quantile regression to calibrate local growth curves of Xanthoria elegans, Aspicilia tianshanica, and Rhizocarpon geographicum, and report a nonlinear decrease in dating accuracy with increasing lichen diameter. A Bayesian type of an analysis of variance demonstrates that our calibration allows discriminating credibly between rock-glacier lobes of different ages despite the uncertainties tied to sample size and correctly identifying the largest lichen thalli. Our results also show that calibration error grows with lichen size, so that the separability of rock-glacier lobes of different ages decreases, while the tendency to assign coeval ages increases. The abundant young (<200 yr) specimen of fast-growing X elegans are in contrast with the fewer, slow-growing, but older (200-1500 yr) R. geographicum and A. tianshanica, and record either a regional reactivation of lobes in the past 200 years, or simply a censoring effect of lichen mortality during early phases of colonisation. The high variance of lichen sizes captures the activity of rock-glacier lobes, which is difficult to explain by regional climatic cooling or earthquake triggers alone. Therefore, we caution against inferring palaeoclimatic conditions from the topographic position of rock-glacier lobes. We conclude that lichenometry works better as a tool for establishing a relative, rather than an absolute, chronology of rock-glacier lobes in the northern Tien Shan. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{RosenwinkelLandgrafSchwanghartetal.2017, author = {Rosenwinkel, Swenja and Landgraf, Angela and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Volkmer, Friedrich and Dzhumabaeva, Atyrgul and Merchel, Silke and Rugel, Georg and Preusser, Frank and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Late Pleistocene outburst floods from Issyk Kul, Kyrgyzstan?}, series = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, volume = {42}, journal = {Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0197-9337}, doi = {10.1002/esp.4109}, pages = {1535 -- 1548}, year = {2017}, language = {en} }