@article{Jeltsch2003, author = {Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {{\"O}kologische Forschungen an der Unteren Havel}, series = {Brandenburgische Umwelt-Berichte : BUB ; Schriftenreihe der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakult{\"a}t der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, volume = {13}, journal = {Brandenburgische Umwelt-Berichte : BUB ; Schriftenreihe der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakult{\"a}t der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, issn = {1434-2375}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-4100}, pages = {138 -- 139}, year = {2003}, language = {de} } @article{Jeltsch2002, author = {Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Wechselbeziehungen zwischen Artendiversit{\"a}t und struktureller Diversit{\"a}t : modellgest{\"u}tzte Untersuchungen am Beispiel einer semiariden Savanne}, year = {2002}, language = {de} } @article{WichmannJeltschDeanetal.2002, author = {Wichmann, Matthias and Jeltsch, Florian and Dean, Richard and Moloney, Kirk A. and Wissel, Christian}, title = {Weather does matter : simulating population dynamics of tawny eagle (Aquila rapax) under various rainfall scenarios}, year = {2002}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschWiegandHanskietal.2003, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Wiegand, T. and Hanski, I. and Grimm, Volker}, title = {Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information : a key for reconciling ecological theory and application}, year = {2003}, language = {en} } @article{EccardDeanWichmannetal.2006, author = {Eccard, Jana and Dean, W. Richard J. and Wichmann, Matthias and Huttunen, S. M and Eskelinen, Eeva-Liisa and Moloney, Kirk A. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Use of large Acacia trees by the cavity dwelling Black-tailed Tree Rat in the southern Kalahari}, issn = {0140-1963}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.06.019}, year = {2006}, abstract = {Recent extensive harvesting of large, often dead Acacia trees in and savanna of southern Africa is cause for concern about the conservation status of the arid savanna and its animal community. We mapped vegetation and nests of the Black-tailed Tree Rat Thallomy's nigricauda to assess the extent to which the rats depend on particular tree species and on the existence of dead, standing trees. The study was conducted in continuous Acacia woodland on the southern and eastern edge of the Kalahari, South Africa. Trees in which there were tree rat nests were compared with trees of similar size and vigour to identify the characteristics of nest sites. Spatial analysis of tree rat distribution was conducted using Ripley's-L function. We found that T nigricauda was able to utilize all available tree species, as long as trees were large and old enough so that cavities were existing inside the stem. The spatial distribution of nest trees did not show clumping at the investigated scale, and we therefore reject the notion of the rats forming colonies when inhabiting continuous woodlands. The selection of a particular tree as a nest site was furthermore depending on the close proximity of the major food plant, Acacia mellifera. This may limit the choice of suitable nest sites. since A. mellifera was less likely to grow within a vegetation patch containing a large trees than in patches without large trees.}, language = {en} } @incollection{LueckBalderjahnKammetal.2000, author = {L{\"u}ck, Erika and Balderjahn, Ingo and Kamm, Birgit and Greil, Holle and Wallschl{\"a}ger, Hans-Dieter and Jessel, Beate and B{\"o}ckmann, Christine and Oberh{\"a}nsli, Roland and Soyez, Konrad and Schmeer, Ernst and Blumenstein, Oswald and Berndt, Klaus-Peter and Edeling, Thomas and Friedrich, Sabine and Kaden, Klaus and Scheller, Frieder W. and Petersen, Hans-Georg and Asche, Hartmut and Bronstert, Axel and Giest, Hartmut and Gaedke, Ursula and L{\"o}hmannsr{\"o}ben, Hans-Gerd and Jeltsch, Florian and J{\"a}nkel, Ralph and Gzik, Axel and Bork, Hans-Rudolf and Bork, Hans-Rudolf}, title = {Umweltforschung f{\"u}r das Land Brandenburg : Arbeitsgruppen und Professuren}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-3797}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2000}, language = {de} } @article{TittelBorkRoepkeetal.2000, author = {Tittel, J{\"o}rg and Bork, Rudolf and R{\"o}pke, Bj{\"o}rn and Geldmacher, Karl and Schnur, Tilo and Faust, Berno and Schaphoff, Sibyll and Dalchow, Claus and Woithe, Franka and Bronstert, Axel and Jeltsch, Florian and Jessel, Beate and Zschalich, Andrea and R{\"o}ßling, Holger and Spindler, Joris and Gaedke, Ursula and Tielb{\"o}rger, Katja and Kadmon, R. and M{\"u}ller, J. and Bissinger, Vera and Weithoff, Guntram and Wallschl{\"a}ger, Hans-Dieter and Wiegleb, Gerhard}, title = {Umweltforschung f{\"u}r das Land Brandenburg}, series = {Brandenburgische Umwelt-Berichte : BUB ; Schriftenreihe der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakult{\"a}t der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, volume = {8}, journal = {Brandenburgische Umwelt-Berichte : BUB ; Schriftenreihe der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakult{\"a}t der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, issn = {1434-2375}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-3828}, pages = {80 -- 134}, year = {2000}, abstract = {BISSINGER, V.; TITTEL, J.: Process rates and growth limiting factors of planktonic algae (Chlamydomonas sp.) from extremely acidic (pH 2,5 - 3) mining lakes in Germany ; BORK, H.-R. et al.: Erodierte Autos und Brunnen in Oregon, USA ; BRONSTERT, A. et al.: Bewirtschaftunsm{\"o}glichkeiten im Einzugsgebiet der Havel ; JELTSCH, F. et al.: Beweidung als Degradationsfaktor in ariden und semiariden Weidesystemen ; JELTSCH, F. et al.: Entstehung und Bedeutung r{\"a}umlicher Vegetationsstrukturen in Trockensavannen: Baum-Graskoexistenz und Artenvielfalt ; JESSEL, B. et al.: Bodenbewertung f{\"u}r Planungs- und Zulassungsverfahren in Brandenburg ; JESSEL, B.; ZSCHALICH, A.: Erarbeitung von Ausgleichs- und Ersatzmaßnahmen f{\"u}r die Wert- und Funktionselemente des Landschaftsbildes ; R{\"O}ßLING, H. et al.: Umsetzung von Ausgleichs- und Ersatzmaßnahmen beim Ausbau der Bundesautobahn A 9 ; SPINDLER, J.; GAEDKE, U.: Estimating production in plankton food webs from biomass size spectra and allometric relationships ; TIELB{\"O}RGER, K. et al.: Sukzessionsprozesse in einem Sandd{\"u}nengebiet nach Ausschluß von Beweidung ; TIELB{\"O}RGER, K. et al.: Populationsdynamische Funktionen von Ausbreitung und Dormanz ; TIELB{\"O}RGER, K. et al.: Raum-zeitliche Populationsdynamik von einj{\"a}hrigen W{\"u}stenpflanzen ; TITTEL, J. et al.: Ressourcennutzung und -weitergabe im planktischen Nahrungsnetz eines extrem sauren (pH 2,7) Tagebausees ; WALLSCHL{\"A}GER, D.; WIEGLEB, G.: Offenland-Management auf ehemaligen und in Nutzung befindlichen Truppen{\"u}bungspl{\"a}tzen im pleistoz{\"a}nen Flachland Nordostdeutschlands: Naturschutzfachliche Grundlagen und praktische Anwendungen ; WEITHOFF, G.; GAEDKE, U.: Planktische R{\"a}uber-Beute-Systeme: Experimentelle Untersuchung von {\"o}kologischen Synchronisationen}, language = {de} } @article{BergholzMayRistowetal.2017, author = {Bergholz, Kolja and May, Felix and Ristow, Michael and Giladi, Itamar and Ziv, Yaron and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Two Mediterranean annuals feature high within-population trait variability and respond differently to a precipitation gradient}, series = {Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft f{\"u}r {\"O}kologie}, volume = {25}, journal = {Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft f{\"u}r {\"O}kologie}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Jena}, issn = {1439-1791}, doi = {10.1016/j.baae.2017.11.001}, pages = {48 -- 58}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Intraspecific trait variability plays an important role in species adaptation to climate change. However, it still remains unclear how plants in semi-arid environments respond to increasing aridity. We investigated the intraspecific trait variability of two common Mediterranean annuals (Geropogon hybridus and Crupina crupinastrum) with similar habitat preferences. They were studied along a steep precipitation gradient in Israel similar to the maximum predicted precipitation changes in the eastern Mediterranean basin (i.e. -30\% until 2100). We expected a shift from competitive ability to stress tolerance with decreasing precipitation and tested this expectation by measuring key functional traits (canopy and seed release height, specific leaf area, N-and P-leaf content, seed mass). Further, we evaluated generative bet-hedging strategies by different seed traits. Both species showed different responses along the precipitation gradient. C. crupinastrum exhibited only decreased plant height toward saridity, while G. hybridus showed strong trends of generative adaptation to aridity. Different seed trait indices suggest increased bet-hedging of G. hybridus in arid environments. However, no clear trends along the precipitation gradient were observed in leaf traits (specific leaf area and leaf N-/P-content) in both species. Moreover, variance decomposition revealed that most of the observed trait variation (>> 50\%) is found within populations. The findings of our study suggest that responses to increased aridity are highly species-specific and local environmental factors may have a stronger effect on intraspecific trait variation than shifts in annual precipitation. We therefore argue that trait-based analyses should focus on precipitation gradients that are comparable to predicted precipitation changes and compare precipitation effects to effects of local environmental factors. (C) 2017 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{KruseWieczorekJeltschetal.2016, author = {Kruse, Stefan and Wieczorek, Mareike and Jeltsch, Florian and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {338}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.003}, pages = {101 -- 121}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{TreydteGrantJeltsch2009, author = {Treydte, Anna C. and Grant, Rina C. C. and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Tree size and herbivory determine below-canopy grass quality and species composition in savannahs}, issn = {0960-3115}, doi = {10.1007/s10531-009-9694-3}, year = {2009}, abstract = {Large single-standing trees are rapidly declining in savannahs, ecosystems supporting a high diversity of large herbivorous mammals. Savannah trees are important as they support both a unique flora and fauna. The herbaceous layer in particular responds to the structural and functional properties of a tree. As shrubland expands stem thickening occurs and large trees are replaced by smaller trees. Here we examine whether small trees are as effective in providing advantages for grasses growing beneath their crowns as large trees are. The role of herbivory in this positive tree- grass interaction is also investigated. We assessed soil and grass nutrient content, structural properties, and herbaceous species composition beneath trees of three size classes and under two grazing regimes in a South African savannah. We found that grass leaf content (N and P) beneath the crowns of particularly large (ca. 3.5 m) and very large trees (ca. 9 m) was as much as 40\% greater than the same grass species not growing under a tree canopy, whereas nutrient contents of grasses did not differ beneath small trees (< 2.3 m). Moderate herbivory enhanced these effects slightly. Grass species composition differed beneath and beyond the tree canopy but not between tree size classes. As large trees significantly improve the grass nutrient quality for grazers in contrast to smaller trees, the decline of the former should be halted. The presence of trees further increases grass species diversity and patchiness by favouring shade- tolerant species. Both grazing wildlife and livestock will benefit from the presence of large trees because of their structural and functional importance for savannahs.}, language = {en} } @misc{BergholzKoberJeltschetal.2021, author = {Bergholz, Kolja and Kober, Klarissa and Jeltsch, Florian and Schmidt, Kristina and Weiß, Lina}, title = {Trait means or variance}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51990}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-519905}, pages = {3357 -- 3365}, year = {2021}, abstract = {One of the few laws in ecology is that communities consist of few common and many rare taxa. Functional traits may help to identify the underlying mechanisms of this community pattern, since they correlate with different niche dimensions. However, comprehensive studies are missing that investigate the effects of species mean traits (niche position) and intraspecific trait variability (ITV, niche width) on species abundance. In this study, we investigated fragmented dry grasslands to reveal trait-occurrence relationships in plants at local and regional scales. We predicted that (a) at the local scale, species occurrence is highest for species with intermediate traits, (b) at the regional scale, habitat specialists have a lower species occurrence than generalists, and thus, traits associated with stress-tolerance have a negative effect on species occurrence, and (c) ITV increases species occurrence irrespective of the scale. We measured three plant functional traits (SLA = specific leaf area, LDMC = leaf dry matter content, plant height) at 21 local dry grassland communities (10 m × 10 m) and analyzed the effect of these traits and their variation on species occurrence. At the local scale, mean LDMC had a positive effect on species occurrence, indicating that stress-tolerant species are the most abundant rather than species with intermediate traits (hypothesis 1). We found limited support for lower specialist occurrence at the regional scale (hypothesis 2). Further, ITV of LDMC and plant height had a positive effect on local occurrence supporting hypothesis 3. In contrast, at the regional scale, plants with a higher ITV of plant height were less frequent. We found no evidence that the consideration of phylogenetic relationships in our analyses influenced our findings. In conclusion, both species mean traits (in particular LDMC) and ITV were differently related to species occurrence with respect to spatial scale. Therefore, our study underlines the strong scale-dependency of trait-abundance relationships.}, language = {en} } @article{BergholzKoberJeltschetal.2021, author = {Bergholz, Kolja and Kober, Klarissa and Jeltsch, Florian and Schmidt, Kristina and Weiß, Lina}, title = {Trait means or variance}, series = {Ecology and evolution}, volume = {11}, journal = {Ecology and evolution}, number = {7}, publisher = {John Wiley \& Sons, Inc.}, issn = {2045-7758}, doi = {10.1002/ece3.7287}, pages = {3357 -- 3365}, year = {2021}, abstract = {One of the few laws in ecology is that communities consist of few common and many rare taxa. Functional traits may help to identify the underlying mechanisms of this community pattern, since they correlate with different niche dimensions. However, comprehensive studies are missing that investigate the effects of species mean traits (niche position) and intraspecific trait variability (ITV, niche width) on species abundance. In this study, we investigated fragmented dry grasslands to reveal trait-occurrence relationships in plants at local and regional scales. We predicted that (a) at the local scale, species occurrence is highest for species with intermediate traits, (b) at the regional scale, habitat specialists have a lower species occurrence than generalists, and thus, traits associated with stress-tolerance have a negative effect on species occurrence, and (c) ITV increases species occurrence irrespective of the scale. We measured three plant functional traits (SLA = specific leaf area, LDMC = leaf dry matter content, plant height) at 21 local dry grassland communities (10 m × 10 m) and analyzed the effect of these traits and their variation on species occurrence. At the local scale, mean LDMC had a positive effect on species occurrence, indicating that stress-tolerant species are the most abundant rather than species with intermediate traits (hypothesis 1). We found limited support for lower specialist occurrence at the regional scale (hypothesis 2). Further, ITV of LDMC and plant height had a positive effect on local occurrence supporting hypothesis 3. In contrast, at the regional scale, plants with a higher ITV of plant height were less frequent. We found no evidence that the consideration of phylogenetic relationships in our analyses influenced our findings. In conclusion, both species mean traits (in particular LDMC) and ITV were differently related to species occurrence with respect to spatial scale. Therefore, our study underlines the strong scale-dependency of trait-abundance relationships.}, language = {en} } @article{ZurellBergerCabraletal.2010, author = {Zurell, Damaris and Berger, Uta and Cabral, Juliano Sarmento and Jeltsch, Florian and Meynard, Christine N. and Muenkemueller, Tamara and Nehrbass, Nana and Pagel, J{\"o}rn and Reineking, Bjoern and Schroeder, Boris and Grimm, Volker}, title = {The virtual ecologist approach : simulating data and observers}, issn = {0030-1299}, doi = {10.1111/j.1600-0706.2009.18284.x}, year = {2010}, abstract = {Ecologists carry a well-stocked toolbox with a great variety of sampling methods, statistical analyses and modelling tools, and new methods are constantly appearing. Evaluation and optimisation of these methods is crucial to guide methodological choices. Simulating error-free data or taking high-quality data to qualify methods is common practice. Here, we emphasise the methodology of the 'virtual ecologist' (VE) approach where simulated data and observer models are used to mimic real species and how they are 'virtually' observed. This virtual data is then subjected to statistical analyses and modelling, and the results are evaluated against the 'true' simulated data. The VE approach is an intuitive and powerful evaluation framework that allows a quality assessment of sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. It works under controlled conditions as well as under consideration of confounding factors such as animal movement and biased observer behaviour. In this review, we promote the approach as a rigorous research tool, and demonstrate its capabilities and practical relevance. We explore past uses of VE in different ecological research fields, where it mainly has been used to test and improve sampling regimes as well as for testing and comparing models, for example species distribution models. We discuss its benefits as well as potential limitations, and provide some practical considerations for designing VE studies. Finally, research fields are identified for which the approach could be useful in the future. We conclude that VE could foster the integration of theoretical and empirical work and stimulate work that goes far beyond sampling methods, leading to new questions, theories, and better mechanistic understanding of ecological systems.}, language = {en} } @article{JeltschMoloneySchurretal.2008, author = {Jeltsch, Florian and Moloney, Kirk A. and Schurr, Frank Martin and K{\"o}chy, Martin and Schwager, Monika}, title = {The state of plant population modelling in light of environmental change}, issn = {1433-8319}, doi = {10.1016/j.ppees.2007.11.004}, year = {2008}, abstract = {Plant population modelling has been around since the 1970s, providing a valuable approach to understanding plant ecology from a mechanistic standpoint. It is surprising then that this area of research has not grown in prominence with respect to other approaches employed in modelling plant systems. In this review, we provide an analysis of the development and role of modelling in the field of plant population biology through an exploration of where it has been, where it is now and, in our opinion, where it should be headed. We focus, in particular, on the role plant population modelling could play in ecological forecasting, an urgent need given current rates of regional and global environmental change. We suggest that a critical element limiting the current application of plant population modelling in environmental research is the trade-off between the necessary resolution and detail required to accurately characterize ecological dynamics pitted against the goal of generality, particularly at broad spatial scales. In addition to suggestions how to overcome the current shortcoming of data on the process-level we discuss two emerging strategies that may offer a way to overcome the described limitation: (1) application of a modern approach to spatial scaling from local processes to broader levels of interaction and (2) plant functional-type modelling. Finally we outline what we believe to be needed in developing these approaches towards a 'science of forecasting'.}, language = {en} } @article{ThulkeTischendorfStaubachetal.2000, author = {Thulke, Hans-Hermann and Tischendorf, L. and Staubach, C. and Selhorst, T. and Jeltsch, Florian and M{\"u}ller, T. and Schl{\"u}ter, H. and Wissel, Christian}, title = {The spatio-temporal dynamics of a post-vaccination recovery of rabies in foxes and emergency vaccination planning}, year = {2000}, language = {en} } @article{BielcikAguilarTriguerosLakovicetal.2019, author = {Bielcik, Milos and Aguilar-Trigueros, Carlos A. and Lakovic, Milica and Jeltsch, Florian and Rillig, Matthias C.}, title = {The role of active movement in fungal ecology and community assembly}, series = {Movement Ecology}, volume = {7}, journal = {Movement Ecology}, number = {1}, publisher = {BMC}, address = {London}, issn = {2051-3933}, doi = {10.1186/s40462-019-0180-6}, pages = {12}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Movement ecology aims to provide common terminology and an integrative framework of movement research across all groups of organisms. Yet such work has focused on unitary organisms so far, and thus the important group of filamentous fungi has not been considered in this context. With the exception of spore dispersal, movement in filamentous fungi has not been integrated into the movement ecology field. At the same time, the field of fungal ecology has been advancing research on topics like informed growth, mycelial translocations, or fungal highways using its own terminology and frameworks, overlooking the theoretical developments within movement ecology. We provide a conceptual and terminological framework for interdisciplinary collaboration between these two disciplines, and show how both can benefit from closer links: We show how placing the knowledge from fungal biology and ecology into the framework of movement ecology can inspire both theoretical and empirical developments, eventually leading towards a better understanding of fungal ecology and community assembly. Conversely, by a greater focus on movement specificities of filamentous fungi, movement ecology stands to benefit from the challenge to evolve its concepts and terminology towards even greater universality. We show how our concept can be applied for other modular organisms (such as clonal plants and slime molds), and how this can lead towards comparative studies with the relationship between organismal movement and ecosystems in the focus.}, language = {en} } @article{TeckentrupKramerSchadtJeltsch2019, author = {Teckentrup, Lisa and Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {The risk of ignoring fear: underestimating the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity}, series = {Landscape ecology}, volume = {34}, journal = {Landscape ecology}, number = {12}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0921-2973}, doi = {10.1007/s10980-019-00922-8}, pages = {2851 -- 2868}, year = {2019}, language = {en} } @article{WeissJeltsch2015, author = {Weiß, Lina and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {The response of simulated grassland communities to the cessation of grazing}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {303}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.02.002}, pages = {1 -- 11}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Changes in land-use are supposed to be among the severest prospective threats to plant diversity worldwide. In semi-natural temperate grasslands, the cessation of traditional land use like livestock grazing is considered to be one of the most important drivers of the diversity loss witnessed within the last decades. Despite of the enormous number of studies on successional pathways following grazing abandonment there is no general pattern of how grassland communities are affected in terms of diversity, trait composition and pace of succession. To gain a comprehensive picture is difficult given the heterogeneity of environments and the time and effort needed for long-term investigations. We here use a proven individual- and trait-based grassland community model to analyze short- and long-term consequences of grazing abandonment under different assumptions of resource availability, pre-abandonment grazing intensity and regional isolation of communities. Grazing abandonment led to a decrease of plant functional type (PFT) diversity in all but two scenarios in the long-term. In short-term we also found an increase or no change in Shannon diversity for several scenarios. With grazing abandonment we overall found an increase in maximum plant mass, clonal integration and longer lateral spread, a decrease in rosette plant types and in stress tolerant plants, as well as an increase in grazing tolerant and a decrease in grazing avoiding plant types. Observed changes were highly dependent on the regional configuration of communities, prevalent resource conditions and land use intensity before abandonment. While long-term changes took around 10-20 years in resource rich conditions, new equilibria established in resource poor conditions only after 30-40 years. Our results confirm the potential threats caused by recent land-use changes and the assumption that oligotrophic communities are more resistant than mesotrophic communities also for long-term abandonment. Moreover, results revealed that species-rich systems are not per se more resistant than species-poor grasslands. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{FerTietjenJeltschetal.2017, author = {Fer, Istem and Tietjen, Britta and Jeltsch, Florian and Wolff, Christian Michael}, title = {The influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario}, series = {Biogeosciences}, volume = {14}, journal = {Biogeosciences}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1726-4170}, doi = {10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017}, pages = {4355 -- 4374}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.}, language = {en} } @article{FerTietjenJeltschetal.2017, author = {Fer, Istem and Tietjen, Britta and Jeltsch, Florian and Wolff, Christian Michael}, title = {The influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario}, series = {Biogeosciences}, volume = {14}, journal = {Biogeosciences}, number = {18}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {Katlenburg-Lindau}, issn = {1726-4170}, doi = {10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017}, pages = {4355 -- 4374}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.}, language = {en} }