@phdthesis{Glushak2007,
  author    = {Glushak, Ksenia},
  title     = {Atmospheric circulation and the surface mass balance in a regional climate model of Antarctica},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-17296},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2007},
  abstract  = {Understanding the Earth's climate system and particularly climate variability presents one of the most difficult and urgent challenges in science. The Antarctic plays a crucial role in the global climate system, since it is the principal region of radiative energy deficit and atmospheric cooling. An assessment of regional climate model HIRHAM is presented. The simulations are generated with the HIRHAM model, which is modified for Antarctic applications. With a horizontal resolution of 55km, the model has been run for the period 1958-1998 creating long-term simulations from initial and boundary conditions provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA40 re-analysis. The model output is compared with observations from observation stations, upper air data, global atmospheric analyses and satellite data. In comparison with the observations, the evaluation shows that the simulations with the HIRHAM model capture both the large and regional scale circulation features with generally small bias in the modeled variables. On the annual time scale the largest errors in the model simulations are the overestimation total cloud cover and the colder near-surface temperature over the interior of the Antarctic plateau. The low-level temperature inversion as well as low-level wind jet is well captured by the model. The decadal scale processes were studied based on trend calculations. The long-term run was divided into two 20 years parts. The 2m temperature, 500 hPa temperature, MSLP, precipitation and net mass balance trends were calculated for both periods and over 1958 - 1998. During the last two decades the strong surface cooling was observed over the Eastern Antarctica, this result is in good agreement with the result of Chapman and Walsh (2005) who calculated the temperature trend based on the observational data. The MSLP trend reveals a big disparity between the first and second parts of the 40 year run. The overall trend shows the strengthening of the circumpolar vortex and continental anticyclone. The net mass balance as well as precipitation show a positive trend over the Antarctic Peninsula region, along Wilkes Land and in Dronning Maud Land. The Antarctic ice sheet grows over the Eastern part of Antarctica with small exceptions in Dronning Maud Land and Wilkes Land and sinks in the Antarctic Peninsula; this result is in good agreement with the satellite-measured altitude presented in Davis (2005) . To better understand the horizontal structure of MSLP, temperature and net mass balance trends the influence of the Southern Annual Mode (SAM) on the Antarctic climate was investigated. The main meteorological parameters during the positive and negative Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) phases were compared to each other. A positive/negative AAO index means strengthening/weakening of the circumpolar vortex, poleward/northward storm tracks and prevailing/weakening westerly winds. For detailed investigation of global teleconnection, two positive and one negative periods of AAO phase were chosen. The differences in MSLP and 2m temperature between positive and negative AAO years during the winter months partly explain the surface cooling during the last decades.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Folkertsma2020,
  author    = {Folkertsma, Remco},
  title     = {Evolutionary adaptation to climate in microtine mammals},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-47680},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-476807},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {135},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Understanding how organisms adapt to their local environment is a major focus of evolutionary biology. Local adaptation occurs when the forces of divergent natural selection are strong enough compared to the action of other evolutionary forces. An improved understanding of the genetic basis of local adaptation can inform about the evolutionary processes in populations and is of major importance because of its relevance to altered selection pressures due to climate change. So far, most insights have been gained by studying model organisms, but our understanding about the genetic basis of local adaptation in wild populations of species with little genomic resources is still limited. With the work presented in this thesis I therefore set out to provide insights into the genetic basis of local adaptation in populations of two voles species: the common vole (Microtus arvalis) and the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). Both voles species are small mammals, they have a high evolutionary potential compared to their dispersal capabilities and are thus likely to show genetic responses to local conditions, moreover, they have a wide distribution in which they experience a broad range of different environmental conditions, this makes them an ideal species to study local adaptation. The first study focused on producing a novel mitochondrial genome to facilitate further research in M. arvalis. To this end, I generated the first mitochondrial genome of M. arvalis using shotgun sequencing and an iterative mapping approach. This was subsequently used in a phylogenetic analysis that produced novel insights into the phylogenetic relationships of the Arvicolinae. The following two studies then focused on the genetic basis of local adaptation using ddRAD-sequencing data and genome scan methods. The first of these involved sequencing the genomic DNA of individuals from three low-altitude and three high-altitude M. arvalis study sites in the Swiss Alps. High-altitude environments with their low temperatures and low levels of oxygen (hypoxia) pose considerable challenges for small mammals. With their small body size and proportional large body surface they have to sustain high rates of aerobic metabolism to support thermogenesis and locomotion, which can be restricted with only limited levels of oxygen available. To generate insights into high-altitude adaptation I identified a large number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). These data were first used to identify high levels of differentiation between study sites and a clear pattern of population structure, in line with a signal of isolation by distance. Using genome scan methods, I then identified signals of selection associated with differences in altitude in genes with functions related to oxygen transport into tissue and genes related to aerobic metabolic pathways. This indicates that hypoxia is an important selection pressure driving local adaptation at high altitude in M. arvalis. A number of these genes were linked with high-altitude adaptation in other species before, which lead to the suggestion that high-altitude populations of several species have evolved in a similar manner as a response to the unique conditions at high altitude The next study also involved the genetic basis of local adaptation, here I provided insights into climate-related adaptation in M. glareolus across its European distribution. Climate is an important environmental factor affecting the physiology of all organisms. In this study I identified a large number of SNPs in individuals from twelve M. glareolus populations distributed across Europe. I used these, to first establish that populations are highly differentiated and found a strong pattern of population structure with signal of isolation by distance. I then employed genome scan methods to identify candidate loci showing signals of selection associated with climate, with a particular emphasis on polygenic loci. A multivariate analysis was used to determine that temperature was the most important climate variable responsible for adaptive genetic variation among all variables tested. By using novel methods and genome annotation of related species I identified the function of genes of candidate loci. This showed that genes under selection have functions related to energy homeostasis and immune processes. Suggesting that M. glareolus populations have evolved in response to local temperature and specific local pathogenic selection pressures. The studies presented in this thesis provide evidence for the genetic basis of local adaptation in two vole species across different environmental gradients, suggesting that the identified genes are involved in local adaptation. This demonstrates that with the help of novel methods the study of wild populations, which often have little genomic resources available, can provide unique insights into evolutionary processes.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Olaka2011,
  author    = {Olaka, Lydia Atieno},
  title     = {Hydrology across scales : sensitivity of East African lakes to climate changes},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-55029},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {The lakes of the East African Rift System (EARS) have been intensively studied to better understand the influence of climate change on hydrological systems. The exceptional sensitivity of these rift lakes, however, is both a challenge and an opportunity when trying to reconstruct past climate changes from changes in the hydrological budget of lake basins on timescales 100 to 104 years. On one hand, differences in basin geometrics (shape, area, volume, depth), catchment rainfall distributions and varying erosion-deposition rates complicate regional interpretation of paleoclimate information from lacustrine sediment proxies. On the other hand, the sensitivity of rift lakes often provides paleoclimate records of excellent quality characterized by a high signal-to-noise ratio. This study aims at better understanding of the climate-proxy generating process in rift lakes by parameterizing the geomorphological and hydroclimatic conditions of a particular site providing a step towards the establishment of regional calibrations of transfer functions for climate reconstructions. The knowledge of the sensitivity of a lake basin to climate change furthermore is crucial for a better assessment of the probability of catastrophic changes in the future, which bear risks for landscapes, ecosystems, and organisms of all sorts, including humans. Part 1 of this thesis explores the effect of the morphology and the effective moisture of a lake catchment. The availability of digital elevation models (DEM) and gridded climate data sets facilitates the comparison of the morphological and hydroclimatic conditions of rift lakes. I used the hypsometric integral (HI) calculated from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data to describe the morphology of ten lake basins in Kenya and Ethiopia. The aridity index (AI) describing the difference in the precipitation/evaporation balance within a catchment was used to compare the hydroclimatic of these basins. Correlating HI and AI with published Holocene lake-level variations revealed that lakes responding sensitively to relatively moderate climate change are typically graben shaped and characterized by a HI between 0.23-0.30, and relatively humid conditions with AI >1. These amplifier lakes, a term first introduced but not fully parameterized by Alayne Street-Perrott in the early 80s, are unexceptionally located in the crest of the Kenyan and Ethiopian domes. The non-amplifier lakes in the EARS either have lower HI 0.13-0.22 and higher AI (>1) or higher HI (0.31-0.37) and low AI (<1), reflecting pan-shaped morphologies with more arid hydroclimatic conditions. Part 2 of this work addresses the third important factor to be considered when using lake-level and proxy records to unravel past climate changes in the EARS: interbasin connectivity and groundwater flow through faulted and porous subsurface lithologies in a rift setting. First, I have compiled the available hydrogeological data including lithology, resistivity and water-well data for the adjacent Naivasha and Elmenteita-Nakuru basins in the Central Kenya Rift. Using this subsurface information and established records of lake-level decline at the last wet-dry climate transitions, i.e., the termination of the African Humid Period (AHP, 15 to 5 kyr BP), I used a linear decay model to estimate typical groundwater flow between the two basins. The results suggest a delayed response of the groundwater levels of ca. 5 kyrs if no recharge of groundwater occurs during the wet-dry transition, whereas the lag is 2-2.7 kyrs only using the modern recharge of ca. 0.52 m/yr. The estimated total groundwater flow from higher Lake Naivasha (1,880 m a.s.l. during the AHP) to Nakuru-Elmenteita (1,770 m) was 40 cubic kilometers. The unexpectedly large volume, more than half of the volume of the paleo-Lake Naivasha during the Early Holocene, emphasizes the importance of groundwater in hydrological modeling of paleo-lakes in rifts. Moreover, the subsurface connectivity of rift lakes also causes a significant lag time to the system introducing a nonlinear component to the system that has to be considered while interpreting paleo-lake records. Part 3 of this thesis investigated the modern intraseasonal precipitation variability within eleven lake basins discussed in the first section of the study excluding Lake Victoria and including Lake Tana. Remotely sensed rainfall estimates (RFE) from FEWS NET for 1996-2010, are used for the, March April May (MAM) July August September (JAS), October November (ON) and December January February (DJF). The seasonal precipitation are averaged and correlated with the prevailing regional and local climatic mechanisms. Results show high variability with Biennial to Triennial precipitation patterns. The spatial distribution of precipitation in JAS are linked to the onset and strength of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB) and Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) dynamics. while in ON they are related to the strength of Positive ENSO and IOD phases This study describes the influence of graben morphologies, extreme climate constrasts within catchments and basins connectivity through faults and porous lithologies on rift lakes. Hence, it shows the importance of a careful characterization of a rift lake by these parameters prior to concluding from lake-level and proxy records to climate changes. Furthermore, this study highlights the exceptional sensitivity of rift lakes to relatively moderate climate change and its consequences for water availability to the biosphere including humans.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{PilzDelgadoVossetal.2019,
  author    = {Pilz, Tobias and Delgado, Jos{\´e} Miguel Martins and Voss, Sebastian and Vormoor, Klaus Josef and Francke, Till and Cunha Costa, Alexandre and Martins, Eduardo and Bronstert, Axel},
  title     = {Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeast Brazil},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {702},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42795},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427950},
  pages     = {21},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {The semiarid northeast of Brazil is one of the most densely populated dryland regions in the world and recurrently affected by severe droughts. Thus, reliable seasonal forecasts of streamflow and reservoir storage are of high value for water managers. Such forecasts can be generated by applying either hydrological models representing underlying processes or statistical relationships exploiting correlations among meteorological and hydrological variables. This work evaluates and compares the performances of seasonal reservoir storage forecasts derived by a process-based hydrological model and a statistical approach. Driven by observations, both models achieve similar simulation accuracies. In a hindcast experiment, however, the accuracy of estimating regional reservoir storages was considerably lower using the process-based hydrological model, whereas the resolution and reliability of drought event predictions were similar by both approaches. Further investigations regarding the deficiencies of the process-based model revealed a significant influence of antecedent wetness conditions and a higher sensitivity of model prediction performance to rainfall forecast quality. Within the scope of this study, the statistical model proved to be the more straightforward approach for predictions of reservoir level and drought events at regionally and monthly aggregated scales. However, for forecasts at finer scales of space and time or for the investigation of underlying processes, the costly initialisation and application of a process-based model can be worthwhile. Furthermore, the application of innovative data products, such as remote sensing data, and operational model correction methods, like data assimilation, may allow for an enhanced exploitation of the advanced capabilities of process-based hydrological models.},
  language  = {en}
}