@misc{WinklerHeinken2007,
  author    = {Winkler, Eckart and Heinken, Thilo},
  title     = {Spread of an ant-dispersed annual herb : an individual-based simulation study on population development of Melampyrum pratense L.},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-46491},
  year      = {2007},
  abstract  = {The paper presents a simulation and parameter-estimation approach for evaluating stochastic patterns of population growth and spread of an annual forest herb, Melampyrum pratense (Orobanchaceae). The survival of a species during large-scale changes in land use and climate will depend, to a considerable extent, on its dispersal and colonisation abilities. Predictions on species migration need a combination of field studies and modelling efforts. Our study on the ability of M. pratense to disperse into so far unoccupied areas was based on experiments in secondary woodland in NE Germany. Experiments started in 1997 at three sites where the species was not yet present, with 300 seeds sown within one square meter. Population development was then recorded until 2001 by mapping of individuals with a resolution of 5 cm. Additional observations considered density dependence of seed production. We designed a spatially explicit individual-based computer simulation model to explain the spatial patterns of population development and to predict future population spread. Besides primary drop of seeds (barochory) it assumed secondary seed transport by ants (myrmecochory) with an exponentially decreasing dispersal tail. An important feature of populationpattern explanation was the simultaneous estimation of both population-growth and dispersal parameters from consistent spatio-temporal data sets. As the simulation model produced stochastic time series and random spatially discrete distributions of individuals we estimated parameters by minimising the expectation of weighted sums of squares. These sums-ofsquares criteria considered population sizes, radial population distributions around the area of origin and distributions of individuals within squares of 25*25 cm, the range of density action. Optimal parameter values, together with the precision of the estimates, were obtained from calculating sums of squares in regular grids of parameter values. Our modelling results showed that transport of fractions of seeds by ants over distances of 1…2 m was indispensable for explaining the observed population spread that led to distances of at most 8 m from population origin within 3 years. Projections of population development over 4 additional years gave a diffusion-like increase of population area without any "outposts". This prediction generated by the simulation model gave a hypothesis which should be revised by additional field observations. Some structural deviations between observations and model output already indicated that for full understanding of population spread the set of dispersal mechanisms assumed in the model may have to be extended by additional features of plant-animal mutualism.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{RomeroMujalli2019,
  author    = {Romero Mujalli, Daniel},
  title     = {Ecological modeling of adaptive evolutionary responses to rapid climate change},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-43062},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-430627},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {167},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {A contemporary challenge in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology is to anticipate the fate of populations of organisms in the context of a changing world. Climate change and landscape changes due to anthropic activities have been of major concern in the contemporary history. Organisms facing these threats are expected to respond by local adaptation (i.e., genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity) or by shifting their distributional range (migration). However, there are limits to their responses. For example, isolated populations will have more difficulties in developing adaptive innovations by means of genetic changes than interconnected metapopulations. Similarly, the topography of the environment can limit dispersal opportunities for crawling organisms as compared to those that rely on wind. Thus, populations of species with different life history strategy may differ in their ability to cope with changing environmental conditions. However, depending on the taxon, empirical studies investigating organisms' responses to environmental change may become too complex, long and expensive; plus, complications arising from dealing with endangered species. In consequence, eco-evolutionary modeling offers an opportunity to overcome these limitations and complement empirical studies, understand the action and limitations of underlying mechanisms, and project into possible future scenarios. In this work I take a modeling approach and investigate the effect and relative importance of evolutionary mechanisms (including phenotypic plasticity) on the ability for local adaptation of populations with different life strategy experiencing climate change scenarios. For this, I performed a review on the state of the art of eco-evolutionary Individual-Based Models (IBMs) and identify gaps for future research. Then, I used the results from the review to develop an eco-evolutionary individual-based modeling tool to study the role of genetic and plastic mechanisms in promoting local adaption of populations of organisms with different life strategies experiencing scenarios of climate change and environmental stochasticity. The environment was simulated through a climate variable (e.g., temperature) defining a phenotypic optimum moving at a given rate of change. The rate of change was changed to simulate different scenarios of climate change (no change, slow, medium, rapid climate change). Several scenarios of stochastic noise color resembling different climatic conditions were explored. Results show that populations of sexual species will rely mainly on standing genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity for local adaptation. Population of species with relatively slow growth rate (e.g., large mammals) - especially those of small size - are the most vulnerable, particularly if their plasticity is limited (i.e., specialist species). In addition, whenever organisms from these populations are capable of adaptive plasticity, they can buffer fitness losses in reddish climatic conditions. Likewise, whenever they can adjust their plastic response (e.g., bed-hedging strategy) they will cope with bluish environmental conditions as well. In contrast, life strategies of high fecundity can rely on non-adaptive plasticity for their local adaptation to novel environmental conditions, unless the rate of change is too rapid. A recommended management measure is to guarantee interconnection of isolated populations into metapopulations, such that the supply of useful genetic variation can be increased, and, at the same time, provide them with movement opportunities to follow their preferred niche, when local adaptation becomes problematic. This is particularly important for bluish and reddish climatic conditions, when the rate of change is slow, or for any climatic condition when the level of stress (rate of change) is relatively high.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Buchmann2012,
  author    = {Buchmann, Carsten M.},
  title     = {Modelling the structuring of animal communities in heterogeneous landscapes : the role of individual home range formation, foraging movement, competition and habitat configuration},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-59031},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {This thesis aims at a better mechanistic understanding of animal communities. Therefore, an allometry- and individual-based model has been developed which was used to simulate mammal and bird communities in heterogeneous landscapes, and to to better understand their response to landscape changes (habitat loss and fragmentation).},
  language  = {en}
}