@article{FeldmannAlbrechtKhroulevetal.2014,
  author    = {Feldmann, J. and Albrecht, Torsten and Khroulev, C. and Pattyn, F. and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Resolution-dependent performance of grounding line motion in a shallow model compared with a full-Stokes model according to the MISMIP3d intercomparison},
  series = {Journal of glaciology},
  volume    = {60},
  journal   = {Journal of glaciology},
  number    = {220},
  publisher = {International Glaciological Society},
  address   = {Cambridge},
  issn      = {0022-1430},
  doi       = {10.3189/2014JoG13J093},
  pages     = {353 -- 360},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Making confident statements about the evolution of an ice-sheet shelf system with a numerical model requires the capability to reproduce the migration of the grounding line. Here we show that the shallow-ice approximation/shallow-shelf approximation hybrid-type Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), with its recent improvements, is capable of modeling the grounding line motion in a perturbed ice-sheet shelf system. The model is set up according to the three-dimensional Marine Ice-Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP3d), and simulations are carried out across a broad range of spatial resolutions. Using (1) a linear interpolation of the grounding line with locally interpolated basal friction and (2) an improved driving-stress computation across the grounding line, the reversibility of the grounding line (i.e. its retreat after an advance forced by a local perturbation of basal resistance) is captured by the model even at medium and low resolutions (Delta x > 10 km). The transient model response is qualitatively similar to that of higher-order models but reveals a higher initial sensitivity to perturbations on very short timescales. Our findings support the application of PISM to the Antarctic ice sheet from regional up to continental scales and on relatively low spatial resolutions.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{HinkelLinckeVafeidisetal.2014,
  author    = {Hinkel, Jochen and Lincke, Daniel and Vafeidis, Athanasios T. and Perrette, Mah{\´e} and Nicholls, Robert James and Tol, Richard S. J. and Marzeion, Ben and Fettweis, Xavier and Ionescu, Cezar and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise},
  series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  volume    = {111},
  journal   = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
  number    = {9},
  publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0027-8424},
  doi       = {10.1073/pnas.1222469111},
  pages     = {3292 -- 3297},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise are assessed on a global scale taking into account a wide range of uncertainties in continental topography data, population data, protection strategies, socioeconomic development and sea-level rise. Uncertainty in global mean and regional sea level was derived from four different climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, each combined with three land-ice scenarios based on the published range of contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Without adaptation, 0.2-4.6\% of global population is expected to be flooded annually in 2100 under 25-123 cm of global mean sea-level rise, with expected annual losses of 0.3-9.3\% of global gross domestic product. Damages of this magnitude are very unlikely to be tolerated by society and adaptation will be widespread. The global costs of protecting the coast with dikes are significant with annual investment and maintenance costs of US\$ 12-71 billion in 2100, but much smaller than the global cost of avoided damages even without accounting for indirect costs of damage to regional production supply. Flood damages by the end of this century are much more sensitive to the applied protection strategy than to variations in climate and socioeconomic scenarios as well as in physical data sources (topography and climate model). Our results emphasize the central role of long-term coastal adaptation strategies. These should also take into account that protecting large parts of the developed coast increases the risk of catastrophic consequences in the case of defense failure.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchleussnerLevermannMeinshausen2014,
  author    = {Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich and Levermann, Anders and Meinshausen, Malte},
  title     = {Probabilistic projections of the Atlantic overturning},
  series = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change},
  volume    = {127},
  journal   = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change},
  number    = {3-4},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Dordrecht},
  issn      = {0165-0009},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10584-014-1265-2},
  pages     = {579 -- 586},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Changes in the Atlantic overturning circulation have a strong influence on European temperatures, North American sea level and other climate phenomena worldwide. A meaningful assessment of associated societal impacts needs to be based on the full range of its possible future evolution. This requires capturing both the uncertainty in future warming pathways and the inherently long-term response of the ocean circulation. While probabilistic projections of the global mean and regional temperatures exist, process-based probabilistic assessments of large-scale dynamical systems such as the Atlantic overturning are still missing. Here we present such an assessment and find that a reduction of more than 50 \% in Atlantic overturning strength by the end of the 21 (s t) century is within the likely range under an unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP8.5). By combining linear response functions derived from comprehensive climate simulations with the full range of possible future warming pathways, we provide probability estimates of overturning changes by the year 2100. A weakening of more than 25 \% is found to be very unlikely under a climate protection scenario (RCP2.6), but likely for unmitigated climate change. The method is able to reproduce the modelled recovery caused by climatic equilibration under climate protection scenarios which provides confidence in the approach. Within this century, a reduction of the Atlantic overturning is a robust climatic phenomena that intensifies with global warming and needs to be accounted for in global adaptation strategies.},
  language  = {en}
}