@article{ŠedovaKalkuhl2020,
  author    = {Šedov{\´a}, Barbora and Kalkuhl, Matthias},
  title     = {Who are the climate migrants and where do they go?},
  series = {World development},
  volume    = {129},
  journal   = {World development},
  publisher = {Elsevier Science},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0305-750X},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104848},
  pages     = {19},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {In this paper, we move from the large strand of research that looks at evidence of climate migration to the questions: who are the climate migrants? and where do they go? These questions are crucial to design policies that mitigate welfare losses of migration choices due to climate change. We study the direct and heterogeneous associations between weather extremes and migration in rural India. We combine ERAS reanalysis data with the India Human Development Survey household panel and conduct regression analyses by applying linear probability and multinomial logit models. This enables us to establish a causal relationship between temperature and precipitation anomalies and overall migration as well as migration by destination. We show that adverse weather shocks decrease rural-rural and international migration and push people into cities in different, presumably more prosperous states. A series of positive weather shocks, however, facilitates international migration and migration to cities within the same state. Further, our results indicate that in contrast to other migrants, climate migrants are likely to be from the lower end of the skill distribution and from households strongly dependent on agricultural production. We estimate that approximately 8\% of all rural-urban moves between 2005 and 2012 can be attributed to weather. This figure might increase as a consequence of climate change. Thus, a key policy recommendation is to take steps to facilitate integration of less educated migrants into the urban labor market.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WenzKalkuhlSteckeletal.2016,
  author    = {Wenz, Leonie and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Steckel, Jan Christoph and Creutzig, Felix},
  title     = {Teleconnected food supply shocks},
  series = {Environmental research letters},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007},
  pages     = {10},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {The 2008-2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10\% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5\%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90\% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SurethKalkuhlEdenhoferetal.2023,
  author    = {Sureth, Michael and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Edenhofer, Ottmar and Rockstr{\"o}m, Johan},
  title     = {A welfare economic approach to planetary boundaries},
  series = {Jahrb{\"u}cher f{\"u}r National{\"o}konomie und Statistik},
  volume    = {243},
  journal   = {Jahrb{\"u}cher f{\"u}r National{\"o}konomie und Statistik},
  number    = {5},
  publisher = {De Gruyter Oldenbourg},
  address   = {Berlin},
  issn      = {0021-4027},
  doi       = {10.1515/jbnst-2022-0022},
  pages     = {477 -- 542},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {The crises of both the climate and the biosphere are manifestations of the imbalance between human extractive, and polluting activities and the Earth's regenerative capacity. Planetary boundaries define limits for biophysical systems and processes that regulate the stability and life support capacity of the Earth system, and thereby also define a safe operating space for humanity on Earth. Budgets associated to planetary boundaries can be understood as global commons: common pool resources that can be utilized within finite limits. Despite the analytical interpretation of planetary boundaries as global commons, the planetary boundaries framework is missing a thorough integration into economic theory. We aim to bridge the gap between welfare economic theory and planetary boundaries as derived in the natural sciences by presenting a unified theory of cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis. Our pragmatic approach aims to overcome shortcomings of the practical applications of CEA and CBA to environmental problems of a planetary scale. To do so, we develop a model framework and explore decision paradigms that give guidance to setting limits on human activities. This conceptual framework is then applied to planetary boundaries. We conclude by using the realized insights to derive a research agenda that builds on the understanding of planetary boundaries as global commons.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{SteckelMissbachOhlendorfetal.2022,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Steckel, Jan Christoph and Missbach, Leonard and Ohlendorf, Nils and Feindt, Simon and Kalkuhl, Matthias},
  title     = {Effects of the energy price crisis on European households},
  publisher = {Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH},
  address   = {Berlin},
  pages     = {30},
  year      = {2022},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SinghalPahleKalkuhletal.2021,
  author    = {Singhal, Puja and Pahle, Michael and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Sommer, Stephan and Levesque, Antoine and Berneiser, Jessica},
  title     = {Beyond good faith},
  series = {SSRN eLibrary / Social Science Research Network},
  journal   = {SSRN eLibrary / Social Science Research Network},
  publisher = {SSRN - Elsevier},
  address   = {Rochester, NY},
  issn      = {1556-5068},
  doi       = {10.2139/ssrn.3947800},
  pages     = {29},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {The ambitious climate targets set by industrialized nations worldwide cannot be met without decarbonizing the building stock. Using Germany as a case study, this paper takes stock of the extensive set of energy efficiency policies that are already in place and clarifies that they have been designed "in good faith" but lack in overall effectiveness as well as cost-efficiency in achieving these climate targets. We map out the market failures and behavioural considerations that are potential reasons for why realized energy savings fall below expectations and why the household adoption of energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies has remained low. We highlight the pressing need for data and modern empirical research to develop targeted and cost-effective policies seeking to correct these market failures. To this end, we identify some key research questions and identify gaps in the data required for evidence-based policy.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SedovaKalkuhlMendelsohn2020,
  author    = {Sedova, Barbora and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Mendelsohn, Robert},
  title     = {Distributional impacts of weather and climate in rural India},
  series = {Economics of disasters and climate change},
  volume    = {4},
  journal   = {Economics of disasters and climate change},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Cham},
  issn      = {2511-1280},
  doi       = {10.1007/s41885-019-00051-1},
  pages     = {5 -- 44},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Climate-related costs and benefits may not be evenly distributed across the population. We study distributional implications of seasonal weather and climate on within-country inequality in rural India. Utilizing a first difference approach, we find that the poor are more sensitive to weather variations than the non-poor. The poor respond more strongly to (seasonal) temperature changes: negatively in the (warm) spring season, more positively in the (cold) rabi season. Less precipitation is harmful to the poor in the monsoon kharif season and beneficial in the winter and spring seasons. We show that adverse weather aggravates inequality by reducing consumption of the poor farming households. Future global warming predicted under RCP8.5 is likely to exacerbate these effects, reducing consumption of poor farming households by one third until the year 2100. We also find inequality in consumption across seasons with higher consumption during the harvest and lower consumption during the sowing seasons.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{OttoPiontekKalkuhletal.2020,
  author    = {Otto, Christian and Piontek, Franziska and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Frieler, Katja},
  title     = {Event-based models to understand the scale of the impact of extremes},
  series = {Nature energy},
  volume    = {5},
  journal   = {Nature energy},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2058-7546},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41560-020-0562-4},
  pages     = {111 -- 114},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Climate change entails an intensification of extreme weather events that can potentially trigger socioeconomic and energy system disruptions. As we approach 1 degrees C of global warming we should start learning from historical extremes and explicitly incorporate such events in integrated climate-economy and energy systems models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MontroneSteckelKalkuhl2022,
  author    = {Montrone, Lorenzo and Steckel, Jan Christoph and Kalkuhl, Matthias},
  title     = {The type of power capacity matters for economic development},
  series = {Resource and energy economics},
  volume    = {69},
  journal   = {Resource and energy economics},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0928-7655},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.reseneeco.2022.101313},
  pages     = {17},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {We examine the relationship between different types of power investments and regional economic dynamics. We construct a novel panel dataset combining data on regional GDP and power capacity additions for different technologies between 1960 and 2015, which covers 65\% of the global power capacity that has been installed in this period. We use an event study design to identify the effect of power capacity addition on GDP per capita, exploiting the fact that the exact amount of power capacity coming online each year is determined by random construction delays. We find evidence that GDP per capita increases by 0.2\% in the 6 years around the coming online of 100 MW coal-fired power capacity. We find similar effects for hydropower capacity, but not for any other type of power capacity. The positive effects are regionally bounded and stronger for projects on new sites (green-field). The magnitude of this effect might not be comparable to the total external costs of building new coal-fired power capacity, yet our results help to explain why policymakers favor coal investments for spurring regional growth.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KotzWenzStechemesseretal.2021,
  author    = {Kotz, Maximilian and Wenz, Leonie and Stechemesser, Annika and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth},
  series = {Nature climate change},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Nature climate change},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {1758-678X},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41558-020-00985-5},
  pages     = {319 -- 325},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {Elevated annual average temperature has been found to impact macro-economic growth. However, various fundamental elements of the economy are affected by deviations of daily temperature from seasonal expectations which are not well reflected in annual averages. Here we show that increases in seasonally adjusted day-to-day temperature variability reduce macro-economic growth independent of and in addition to changes in annual average temperature. Combining observed day-to-day temperature variability with subnational economic data for 1,537 regions worldwide over 40 years in fixed-effects panel models, we find that an extra degree of variability results in a five percentage-point reduction in regional growth rates on average. The impact of day-to-day variability is modulated by seasonal temperature difference and income, resulting in highest vulnerability in low-latitude, low-income regions (12 percentage-point reduction). These findings illuminate a new, global-impact channel in the climate-economy relationship that demands a more comprehensive assessment in both climate and integrated assessment models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{KellnerAmbergBergmannetal.2022,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Kellner, Maximilian and Amberg, Maximilian and Bergmann, Tobias and Roolfs, Christina and Kalkuhl, Matthias},
  title     = {Entlastungspakete f{\"u}r Energiepreisanstiege},
  publisher = {Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH},
  address   = {Berlin},
  doi       = {10.5281/zenodo.6617130},
  pages     = {23},
  year      = {2022},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{KalkuhlWenz2020,
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Wenz, Leonie},
  title     = {The impact of climate conditions on economic production},
  series = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
  volume    = {103},
  journal   = {Journal of Environmental Economics and Management},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {San Diego},
  issn      = {0095-0696},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7-14\% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73-142\$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92-181\$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KalkuhlSteckelEdenhofer2020,
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Steckel, Jan Christoph and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
  title     = {All or nothing},
  series = {Journal of environmental economics and management},
  volume    = {100},
  journal   = {Journal of environmental economics and management},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {San Diego},
  issn      = {0095-0696},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.jeem.2019.01.012},
  pages     = {21},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {This paper develops a new perspective on stranded assets in climate policy using a partial equilibrium model of the energy sector. Political-economy related aspects are considered in the government's objective function. Lobbying power of firms or fiscal considerations by the government lead to time inconsistency: The government will deviate from a previously announced carbon tax which creates stranded assets. Under rational expectations, we show that a time-consistent policy outcome exists with either a zero carbon tax or a prohibitive carbon tax that leads to zero fossil investments - an "all-or-nothing" policy. Although stranded assets are crucial to such a bipolar outcome, they disappear again under time-consistent policy. Which of the two outcomes (all or nothing) prevails depends on the lobbying power of owners of fixed factors (land and fossil resources) but not on fiscal revenue considerations or on the lobbying power of renewable or fossil energy firms.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KalkuhlSchwerhoffWaha2020,
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Schwerhoff, Gregor and Waha, Katharina},
  title     = {Land tenure, climate and risk management},
  series = {Ecological economics},
  volume    = {171},
  journal   = {Ecological economics},
  publisher = {Elsevier Science},
  address   = {Amsterdam [u.a.]},
  issn      = {0921-8009},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.106573},
  pages     = {16},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {We analyze to what extent climate conditions affect the prevalence of sharecropping as a form of traditional land tenure. We investigate how sharecropping tenure is related to climate risk and how it interacts with fertilizer use and livestock ownership that both influence production risk. We first develop a stylized theoretical model to illustrate the role of climate for land tenure and production. Our empirical analysis is based on more than 9000 households with considerable heterogeneity in climate conditions across several African countries. We find that farmers in areas with low precipitation are more likely to be sharecroppers. We further find evidence for risk management interaction effects as sharecropping farmers are less likely to own livestock and more likely to use fertilizer. In economies where formal kinds of insurance are unavailable, sharecropping thus functions as a form of insurance and reduces the need for potentially costly risk management strategies.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{KalkuhlFlachslandKnopfetal.2022,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Flachsland, Christian and Knopf, Brigitte and Amberg, Maximilian and Bergmann, Tobias and Kellner, Maximilian and St{\"u}ber, Sophia and Haywood, Luke and Roolfs, Christina and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
  title     = {Effects of the energy price crisis on households in Germany},
  publisher = {Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH},
  address   = {Berlin},
  pages     = {35},
  year      = {2022},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{KalkuhlFlachslandKnopfetal.2022,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Flachsland, Christian and Knopf, Brigitte and Amberg, Maximilian and Bergmann, Tobias and Kellner, Maximilian and St{\"u}ber, Sophia and Haywood, Luke and Roolfs, Christina and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
  title     = {Auswirkungen der Energiepreiskrise auf Haushalte in Deutschland},
  publisher = {Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH},
  address   = {Berlin},
  pages     = {37},
  year      = {2022},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{KalkuhlFernandezMilanSchwerhoffetal.2018,
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Fernandez Milan, Blanca and Schwerhoff, Gregor and Jakob, Michael and Hahnen, Maren and Creutzig, Felix},
  title     = {Can land taxes foster sustainable development?},
  series = {Land use policy : the international journal covering all aspects of land use},
  volume    = {78},
  journal   = {Land use policy : the international journal covering all aspects of land use},
  publisher = {Elsevier Science Publishers Ltd.},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0264-8377},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.07.008},
  pages     = {338 -- 352},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Economists argue that land rent taxation is an ideal form of taxation as it causes no deadweight losses. Nevertheless, pure land rent taxation is rarely applied. This paper revisits the case of land taxation for developing countries. We first provide an up-to-date review on land taxation in development countries, including feasibility and implementation challenges. We then simulate land tax reforms for Rwanda, Peru, Nicaragua and Indonesia, based on household surveys. We find that (i) land taxes provide a substantial untapped potential for tax revenues at minimal deadweight losses; that (ii) linear land value taxes tend to put a high relative burden on poor households as land ownership is pervasive; (iii) non-linear tax schemes could avoid adverse effects on the poor; and that (iv) with technological advances, administrative costs of land taxes have reduced substantially and are outweighed by tax revenues and co-benefits of formalized land tenure. Enforcement and compliance remain, however, a key challenge.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KalkuhlEdenhofer2016,
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
  title     = {Ramsey meets Th{\"u}nen},
  series = {International tax and public finance},
  volume    = {24},
  journal   = {International tax and public finance},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Dordrecht},
  issn      = {0927-5940},
  doi       = {10.1007/s10797-016-9403-6},
  pages     = {350 -- 380},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Land taxes can increase production in the manufacturing sector and enhance land conservation at the same time, which can lead to overall macroeconomic growth. Existing research emphasizes the non-distorting properties of land taxes (when fixed factors are taxed) as well as growth-enhancing impacts (when asset portfolios are shifted to reproducible capital). This paper furthers the neoclassical perspective on land taxes by endogenizing land allocation decisions in a multi-sector growth model. Based on von Th{\"u}nen's observation, agricultural land is created from wilderness through conversion and cultivation, both of which are associated with costs. In the steady state of our general equilibrium model, land taxes not only may reduce land consumption (associated with environmental benefits) but may also affect overall economic output, while leaving wages and interest rates unaffected. When labor productivity is higher in the manufacturing than in the agricultural sector and agricultural and manufactured goods are substitutes (or the economy is open to world trade), land taxes increase aggregate economic output. There is a complex interplay of conservation policy, technological change and land taxes, depending on consumer preferences, sectoral labor productivities and openness-to-trade. Our model introduces a new perspective on land taxes in current policy debates on development, tax reforms as well as forest conservation.},
  language  = {en}
}
@techreport{KalkuhlAmbergBergmannetal.2022,
  type      = {Working Paper},
  author    = {Kalkuhl, Matthias and Amberg, Maximilian and Bergmann, Tobias and Knopf, Brigitte and Edenhofer, Ottmar},
  title     = {Gaspreisdeckel, Mehrwertsteuersenkung, Energiepauschale},
  publisher = {Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH},
  address   = {Berlin},
  pages     = {23},
  year      = {2022},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{HaileKalkuhlAlgierietal.2017,
  author    = {Haile, Mekbib Gebretsadik and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Algieri, Bernardina and Gebreselassie, Samuel},
  title     = {Price shock transmission},
  series = {Agricultural economics},
  volume    = {48},
  journal   = {Agricultural economics},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {0169-5150},
  doi       = {10.1111/agec.12373},
  pages     = {769 -- 780},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {This study assesses the degree of vertical price transmission along the wheat-bread value chain in Ethiopia. This is pursued by applying a vector error correction model and an impulse response analysis using monthly price data for the period 2000-2015. Our analysis considers transmission of price shocks across different market levels, including from the international and domestic wheat grain markets at the upstream to the domestic wheat bread market at the downstream of the value chain. The empirical findings indicate that significant cointegration exists across prices of the different market stages. There is a transmission from international prices to domestic prices at downstream markets, in particular to flour and bread prices. Prices at upstream markets are largely influenced by the domestic wholesale market. In general, the speed of adjustment is quite slow with a half-life of about one year for restoring the equilibrium price relationship. As price margins between the different market stages in the value chain have substantially decreased in the last 15 years, higher transmission, and thus exposure to international market shocks, can be expected in the future. The results also show that causal relationships exist between prices at different market stageswith the wholesale market identified as the key market level where prices and price expectations are formed.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GrunerFussKalkuhletal.2022,
  author    = {Gruner, Friedemann and Fuß, Sabine and Kalkuhl, Matthias and Minx, Jan C. and Strefler, Jessica and Merfort, Anne},
  title     = {Wie CO2-Entnahmen helfen k{\"o}nnen, die Klimaziele zu erreichen},
  series = {Klima und Recht},
  volume    = {1},
  journal   = {Klima und Recht},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {C.H. Beck},
  address   = {M{\"u}nchen},
  issn      = {2750-0551},
  pages     = {18 -- 21},
  year      = {2022},
  language  = {de}
}