@article{ZollDiehlSiebert2019, author = {Zoll, Felix and Diehl, Katharina and Siebert, Rosemarie}, title = {Integrating sustainability goals in innovation processes}, series = {Sustainability}, volume = {11}, journal = {Sustainability}, number = {14}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2071-1050}, doi = {10.3390/su11143761}, pages = {15}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The innovative dual-purpose chicken approach aims at contributing to the transition towards sustainable poultry production by avoiding the culling of male chickens. To successfully integrate sustainability aspects into innovation, goal congruency among actors and clearly communicating the added value within the actor network and to consumers is needed. The challenge of identifying common sustainability goals calls for decision support tools. The objectives of our research were to investigate whether the tool could assist in improving communication and marketing with respect to sustainability and optimizing the value chain organization. Three actor groups participated in the tool application, in which quantitative and qualitative data were collected. The results showed that there were manifold sustainability goals within the innovation network, but only some goals overlapped, and the perception of their implementation also diverged. While easily marketable goals such as 'animal welfare' were perceived as being largely implemented, economic goals were prioritized less often, and the implementation was perceived as being rather low. By visualizing congruencies and differences in the goals, the tool helped identify fields of action, such as improved information flows and prompted thinking processes. We conclude that the tool is useful for managing complex decision processes with several actors involved.}, language = {en} } @article{ZechAttingerBellinetal.2019, author = {Zech, Alraune and Attinger, Sabine and Bellin, Alberto and Cvetkovic, Vladimir and Dietrich, Peter and Fiori, Aldo and Teutsch, Georg and Dagan, Gedeon}, title = {A Critical Analysis of Transverse Dispersivity Field Data}, series = {Groundwater : journal of the Association of Ground-Water Scientists and Engineers, a division of the National Ground Water Association}, volume = {57}, journal = {Groundwater : journal of the Association of Ground-Water Scientists and Engineers, a division of the National Ground Water Association}, number = {4}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0017-467X}, doi = {10.1111/gwat.12838}, pages = {632 -- 639}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Transverse dispersion, or tracer spreading orthogonal to the mean flow direction, which is relevant e.g, for quantifying bio-degradation of contaminant plumes or mixing of reactive solutes, has been studied in the literature less than the longitudinal one. Inferring transverse dispersion coefficients from field experiments is a difficult and error-prone task, requiring a spatial resolution of solute plumes which is not easily achievable in applications. In absence of field data, it is a questionable common practice to set transverse dispersivities as a fraction of the longitudinal one, with the ratio 1/10 being the most prevalent. We collected estimates of field-scale transverse dispersivities from existing publications and explored possible scale relationships as guidance criteria for applications. Our investigation showed that a large number of estimates available in the literature are of low reliability and should be discarded from further analysis. The remaining reliable estimates are formation-specific, span three orders of magnitude and do not show any clear scale-dependence on the plume traveled distance. The ratios with the longitudinal dispersivity are also site specific and vary widely. The reliability of transverse dispersivities depends significantly on the type of field experiment and method of data analysis. In applications where transverse dispersion plays a significant role, inference of transverse dispersivities should be part of site characterization with the transverse dispersivity estimated as an independent parameter rather than related heuristically to longitudinal dispersivity.}, language = {en} } @article{YuanBraunGueritetal.2019, author = {Yuan, Xiaoping P. and Braun, Jean and Guerit, Laure and Rouby, D. and Cordonnier, G.}, title = {A New Efficient Method to Solve the Stream Power Law Model Taking Into Account Sediment Deposition}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9003}, doi = {10.1029/2018JF004867}, pages = {1346 -- 1365}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The stream power law model has been widely used to represent erosion by rivers but does not take into account the role played by sediment in modulating erosion and deposition rates. Davy and Lague (2009, ) provide an approach to address this issue, but it is computationally demanding because the local balance between erosion and deposition depends on sediment flux resulting from net upstream erosion. Here, we propose an efficient (i.e., O(N) and implicit) method to solve their equation. This means that, unlike other methods used to study the complete dynamics of fluvial systems (e.g., including the transition from detachment-limited to transport-limited behavior), our method is unconditionally stable even when large time steps are used. We demonstrate its applicability by performing a range of simulations based on a simple setup composed of an uplifting region adjacent to a stable foreland basin. As uplift and erosion progress, the mean elevations of the uplifting relief and the foreland increase, together with the average slope in the foreland. Sediments aggrade in the foreland and prograde to reach the base level where sediments are allowed to leave the system. We show how the topography of the uplifting relief and the stratigraphy of the foreland basin are controlled by the efficiency of river erosion and the efficiency of sediment transport by rivers. We observe the formation of a steady-state geometry in the uplifting region, and a dynamic steady state (i.e., autocyclic aggradation and incision) in the foreland, with aggradation and incision thicknesses up to tens of meters.}, language = {en} } @article{WendiMerzMarwan2019, author = {Wendi, Dadiyorto and Merz, Bruno and Marwan, Norbert}, title = {Assessing hydrograph similarity and rare runoff dynamics by cross recurrence plots}, series = {Water resources research}, volume = {55}, journal = {Water resources research}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0043-1397}, doi = {10.1029/2018WR024111}, pages = {4704 -- 4726}, year = {2019}, abstract = {This paper introduces a novel measure to assess similarity between event hydrographs. It is based on cross recurrence plots (CRP) and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA), which have recently gained attention in a range of disciplines when dealing with complex systems. The method attempts to quantify the event runoff dynamics and is based on the time delay embedded phase space representation of discharge hydrographs. A phase space trajectory is reconstructed from the event hydrograph, and pairs of hydrographs are compared to each other based on the distance of their phase space trajectories. Time delay embedding allows considering the multidimensional relationships between different points in time within the event. Hence, the temporal succession of discharge values is taken into account, such as the impact of the initial conditions on the runoff event. We provide an introduction to cross recurrence plots and discuss their parameterization. An application example based on flood time series demonstrates how the method can be used to measure the similarity or dissimilarity of events, and how it can be used to detect events with rare runoff dynamics. It is argued that this methods provides a more comprehensive approach to quantify hydrograph similarity compared to conventional hydrological signatures.}, language = {en} } @article{WeldeabRuehlemannBookhagenetal.2019, author = {Weldeab, Syee and R{\"u}hlemann, Carsten and Bookhagen, Bodo and Pausata, Francesco S. R. and Perez-Lua, Fabiola M.}, title = {Enhanced Himalayan glacial melting during YD and H1 recorded in the Northern Bay of Bengal}, series = {Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems}, volume = {20}, journal = {Geochemistry, geophysics, geosystems}, number = {5}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1525-2027}, doi = {10.1029/2018GC008065}, pages = {2449 -- 2461}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Ocean-land thermal feedback mechanisms in the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) domain are an important but not well understood component of regional climate dynamics. Here we present a O-18 record analyzed in the mixed-layer dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber (sensu stricto) from the northernmost Bay of Bengal (BoB). The O-18 time series provides a spatially integrated measure of monsoonal precipitation and Himalayan meltwater runoff into the northern BoB and reveals two brief episodes of anomalously low O-18 values between 16.30.4 and 160.5 and 12.60.4 and 12.30.4 thousand years before present. The timing of these events is centered at Heinrich event 1 and the Younger Dryas, well-known phases of weak northern hemisphere monsoon systems. Numerical climate model experiments, simulating Heinrich event-like conditions, suggest a surface warming over the monsoon-dominated Himalaya and foreland in response to ISM weakening. Corroborating the simulation results, our analysis of published moraine exposure ages in the monsoon-dominated Himalaya indicates enhanced glacier retreats that, considering age model uncertainties, coincide and overlap with the episodes of anomalously low O-18 values in the northernmost BoB. Our climate proxy and simulation results provide insights into past regional climate dynamics, suggesting reduced cloud cover, increased solar radiation, and air warming of the Himalaya and foreland areas and, as a result, glacier mass losses in response to weakened ISM. Plain Language Summary Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall and Himalayan glacier/snow melts constitute the main water source for the densely populated Indian subcontinent. Better understanding of how future climate changes will affect the monsoon rainfall and Himalayan glaciers requires a long climate record. In this study, we create a 13,000-year-long climate record that allows us to better understand the response of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall and Himalayan glaciers to past climate changes. The focus of our study is the time window between 9,000 and 22,000 years ago, an episode where the global climate experienced large and rapid changes. Our sediment record from the northern Bay of Bengal and climate change simulation indicate that during episodes of weak monsoon, the melting of the Himalayan glaciers increases substantially significantly. This is because the weakening of the monsoon results in less cloud cover and, as a result, the surface receives more sunlight and causes glacier melting.}, language = {en} } @article{WangOswaldGraeffetal.2019, author = {Wang, Wei-shi and Oswald, Sascha and Gr{\"a}ff, Thomas and Lensing, Hermann Josef and Liu, Tie and Strasser, Daniel and Munz, Matthias}, title = {Impact of river reconstruction on groundwater flow during bank filtration assessed by transient three-dimensional modelling of flow and heat transport}, series = {Hydrogeology journal : official journal of the International Association of Hydrogeologists}, volume = {28}, journal = {Hydrogeology journal : official journal of the International Association of Hydrogeologists}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Berlin ; Heidelberg [u.a.]}, issn = {1431-2174}, doi = {10.1007/s10040-019-02063-3}, pages = {723 -- 743}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Bank filtration (BF) is an established indirect water-treatment technology. The quality of water gained via BF depends on the subsurface capture zone, the mixing ratio (river water versus ambient groundwater), spatial and temporal distribution of subsurface travel times, and subsurface temperature patterns. Surface-water infiltration into the adjacent aquifer is determined by the local hydraulic gradient and riverbed permeability, which could be altered by natural clogging, scouring and artificial decolmation processes. The seasonal behaviour of a BF system in Germany, and its development during and about 6 months after decolmation (canal reconstruction), was observed with a long-term monitoring programme. To quantify the spatial and temporal variation in the BF system, a transient flow and heat transport model was implemented and two model scenarios, 'with' and 'without' canal reconstruction, were generated. Overall, the simulated water heads and temperatures matched those observed. Increased hydraulic connection between the canal and aquifer caused by the canal reconstruction led to an increase of similar to 23\% in the already high share of BF water abstracted by the nearby waterworks. Subsurface travel-time distribution substantially shifted towards shorter travel times. Flow paths with travel times <200 days increased by similar to 10\% and those with <300 days by 15\%. Generally, the periodic temperature signal, and the summer and winter temperature extrema, increased and penetrated deeper into the aquifer. The joint hydrological and thermal effects caused by the canal reconstruction might increase the potential of biodegradable compounds to further penetrate into the aquifer, also by potentially affecting the redox zonation in the aquifer.}, language = {en} } @article{vonSpechtOeztuerkVehetal.2019, author = {von Specht, Sebastian and {\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Veh, Georg and Cotton, Fabrice and Korup, Oliver}, title = {Effects of finite source rupture on landslide triggering}, series = {Solid earth}, volume = {10}, journal = {Solid earth}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1869-9510}, doi = {10.5194/se-10-463-2019}, pages = {463 -- 486}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M-w 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies < 2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupWalz2019, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Hazard from Himalayan glacier lake outburst floods}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS}, volume = {117}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America : PNAS}, number = {2}, publisher = {National Academy of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1914898117}, pages = {907 -- 912}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5(+3.7)/(-3.7) x 10(6) m(3) (posterior mean and 95\% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600(+2.000)/(-1,800) m(3).S-1. Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (similar to 14,500 m(3).s(-1)) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters.}, language = {en} } @article{TofeldeSaviWickertetal.2019, author = {Tofelde, Stefanie and Savi, Sara and Wickert, Andrew D. and Bufe, Aaron and Schildgen, Taylor F.}, title = {Alluvial channel response to environmental perturbations}, series = {Earth Surface Dynamics}, volume = {7}, journal = {Earth Surface Dynamics}, publisher = {Copernicus Publ.}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2196-6311}, doi = {10.5194/esurf-7-609-2019}, pages = {609 -- 631}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The sensitivity of fluvial systems to tectonic and climatic boundary conditions allows us to use the geomorphic and stratigraphic records as quantitative archives of past climatic and tectonic conditions. Thus, fluvial terraces that form on alluvial fans and floodplains as well as the rate of sediment export to oceanic and continental basins are commonly used to reconstruct paleoenvironments. However, we currently lack a systematic and quantitative understanding of the transient evolution of fluvial systems and their associated sediment storage and release in response to changes in base level, water input, and sediment input. Such knowledge is necessary to quantify past environmental change from terrace records or sedimentary deposits and to disentangle the multiple possible causes for terrace formation and sediment deposition. Here, we use a set of seven physical experiments to explore terrace formation and sediment export from a single, braided channel that is perturbed by changes in upstream water discharge or sediment supply, or through downstream base-level fall. Each perturbation differently affects (1) the geometry of terraces and channels, (2) the timing of terrace cutting, and (3) the transient response of sediment export from the basin. In general, an increase in water discharge leads to near-instantaneous channel incision across the entire fluvial system and consequent local terrace cutting, thus preserving the initial channel slope on terrace surfaces, and it also produces a transient increase in sediment export from the system. In contrast, a decreased upstream sediment-supply rate may result in longer lag times before terrace cutting, leading to terrace slopes that differ from the initial channel slope, and also lagged responses in sediment export. Finally, downstream base-level fall triggers the upstream propagation of a diffuse knickzone, forming terraces with upstream-decreasing ages. The slope of terraces triggered by base-level fall mimics that of the newly adjusted active channel, whereas slopes of terraces triggered by a decrease in upstream sediment discharge or an increase in upstream water discharge are steeper compared to the new equilibrium channel. By combining fillterrace records with constraints on sediment export, we can distinguish among environmental perturbations that would otherwise remain unresolved when using just one of these records.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Thonicke2019, author = {Thonicke, Kirsten}, title = {The influence of disturbance, climate extremes and land-use change on vegetation dynamics}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2019}, language = {en} } @misc{ThiekenBubeckRieseetal.2019, author = {Thieken, Annegret and Bubeck, Philip and Riese, Miriam and Ulbrich, Uwe and Kind, Christian and Kaiser, Theresa}, title = {Foreword Heavy Rain Risk Management in Germany}, series = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, volume = {63}, journal = {Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung}, number = {4}, publisher = {Bundesanstalt f{\"u}r Gew{\"a}sserkunde}, address = {Koblenz}, issn = {1439-1783}, pages = {192 -- 192}, year = {2019}, language = {de} } @article{TanskiBergstedtBevingtonetal.2019, author = {Tanski, George and Bergstedt, Helena and Bevington, Alexandre and Bonnaventure, Philip and Bouchard, Frederic and Coch, Caroline and Dumais, Simon and Evgrafova, Alevtina and Frauenfeld, Oliver W. and Frederick, Jennifer and Fritz, Michael and Frolov, Denis and Harder, Silvie and Hartmeyer, Ingo and Heslop, Joanne and Hoegstroem, Elin and Johansson, Margareta and Kraev, Gleb and Kuznetsova, Elena and Lenz, Josefine and Lupachev, Alexey and Magnin, Florence and Martens, Jannik and Maslakov, Alexey and Morgenstern, Anne and Nieuwendam, Alexandre and Oliva, Marc and Radosavljevi, Boris and Ramage, Justine Lucille and Schneider, Andrea and Stanilovskaya, Julia and Strauss, Jens and Trochim, Erin and Vecellio, Daniel J. and Weber, Samuel and Lantuit, Hugues}, title = {The Permafrost Young Researchers Network (PYRN) is getting older}, series = {Polar record}, volume = {55}, journal = {Polar record}, number = {4}, publisher = {Cambridge Univ. Press}, address = {New York}, issn = {0032-2474}, doi = {10.1017/S0032247418000645}, pages = {216 -- 219}, year = {2019}, abstract = {A lasting legacy of the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007-2008 was the promotion of the Permafrost Young Researchers Network (PYRN), initially an IPY outreach and education activity by the International Permafrost Association (IPA). With the momentum of IPY, PYRN developed into a thriving network that still connects young permafrost scientists, engineers, and researchers from other disciplines. This research note summarises (1) PYRN's development since 2005 and the IPY's role, (2) the first 2015 PYRN census and survey results, and (3) PYRN's future plans to improve international and interdisciplinary exchange between young researchers. The review concludes that PYRN is an established network within the polar research community that has continually developed since 2005. PYRN's successful activities were largely fostered by IPY. With >200 of the 1200 registered members active and engaged, PYRN is capitalising on the availability of social media tools and rising to meet environmental challenges while maintaining its role as a successful network honouring the legacy of IPY.}, language = {en} } @article{SteirouGerlitzApeletal.2019, author = {Steirou, Eva and Gerlitz, Lars and Apel, Heiko and Sun, Xun and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Climate influences on flood probabilities across Europe}, series = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS}, volume = {23}, journal = {Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS}, number = {3}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1027-5606}, doi = {10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019}, pages = {1305 -- 1322}, year = {2019}, abstract = {The link between streamflow extremes and climatology has been widely studied in recent decades. However, a study investigating the effect of large-scale circulation variations on the distribution of seasonal discharge extremes at the European level is missing. Here we fit a climate-informed generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to about 600 streamflow records in Europe for each of the standard seasons, i.e., to winter, spring, summer and autumn maxima, and compare it with the classical GEV distribution with parameters invariant in time. The study adopts a Bayesian framework and covers the period 1950 to 2016. Five indices with proven influence on the European climate are examined independently as covariates, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the east Atlantic pattern (EA), the east Atlantic-western Russian pattern (EA/WR), the Scandinavia pattern (SCA) and the polar-Eurasian pattern (POL). It is found that for a high percentage of stations the climate-informed model is preferred to the classical model. Particularly for NAO during winter, a strong influence on streamflow extremes is detected for large parts of Europe (preferred to the classical GEV distribution for 46\% of the stations). Climate-informed fits are characterized by spatial coherence and form patterns that resemble relations between the climate indices and seasonal precipitation, suggesting a prominent role of the considered circulation modes for flood generation. For certain regions, such as northwestern Scandinavia and the British Isles, yearly variations of the mean seasonal climate indices result in considerably different extreme value distributions and thus in highly different flood estimates for individual years that can also persist for longer time periods.}, language = {en} } @article{SelleKnorrLischeid2019, author = {Selle, Benny and Knorr, Klaus-Holger and Lischeid, Gunnar}, title = {Mobilisation and transport of dissolved organic carbon and iron in peat catchments-Insights from the Lehstenbach stream in Germany using generalised additive models}, series = {Hydrological processes}, volume = {33}, journal = {Hydrological processes}, number = {25}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0885-6087}, doi = {10.1002/hyp.13552}, pages = {3213 -- 3225}, year = {2019}, abstract = {During the last decades, increasing exports of both dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and iron were observed from peat catchments in North America and Europe with potential consequences for water quality of streamwater and carbon storages of soils. As mobilisation and transport processes of DOC and iron in peat catchments are only partly understood, the purpose of this study was to elucidate these processes in an intensively monitored and studied system. Specifically, it was hypothesised that dissimilatory iron reduction in riparian peatland soils mobilises DOC initially adsorbed to iron minerals. During stormflow conditions, both DOC and iron will be transported into the stream network. Ferrous iron may be reoxidised at redox interfaces on its way to the stream, and subsequently, ferric iron could be transported together with DOC as complexes. To test these hypotheses, generalised additive models (GAMs) were applied to 14 years of weekly time series of discharge and concentrations of selected solutes measured in a German headwater stream called Lehstenbach. This stream drains a 4.19-km(2) forested mountain catchment; one third of which is covered by riparian peatland soils. We interpreted results of different types of GAM in the way that (a) iron reduction drove the mobilisation of DOC from peatland soils and that (b) both iron and DOC were transported as complexes after their joint mobilisation to and within the steam. It was speculated that low nitrate availability in the uppermost wetland soil layer, particularly during the growing season, promoted iron reduction and thus the mobilisation of DOC. However, the influence of nitrate on the DOC mobilisation remains relatively uncertain. This influence could be further investigated using methods similar to the GAM analysis conducted here for other catchments with long-term data as well as detailed measurements of the relevant species in riparian wetland soils and the adjacent stream network.}, language = {en} } @article{SchoonoverGretRegameyMetzgeretal.2019, author = {Schoonover, Heather A. and Gret-Regamey, Adrienne and Metzger, Marc J. and Ruiz-Frau, Ana and Santos-Reis, Margarida and Scholte, Samantha S. K. and Walz, Ariane and Nicholas, Kimberly A.}, title = {Creating space, aligning motivations, and building trust}, series = {Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability}, volume = {24}, journal = {Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability}, number = {1}, publisher = {Resilience Alliance}, address = {Wolfville}, issn = {1708-3087}, doi = {10.5751/ES-10061-240111}, pages = {13}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Ecosystem services inherently involve people, whose values help define the benefits of nature's services. It is thus important for researchers to involve stakeholders in ecosystem services research. However, a simple and practicable framework to guide such engagement, and in particular to help researchers anticipate and consider key issues and challenges, has not been well explored. Here, we use experience from the 12 case studies in the European Operational Potential of Ecosystem Research Applications (OPERAs) project to propose a stakeholder engagement framework comprising three key elements: creating space, aligning motivations, and building trust. We argue that involving stakeholders in research demands thoughtful reflection from the researchers about what kind of space they want to create, including if and how they want to bring different interests together, how much space they want to allow for critical discussion, and whether there is a role for particular stakeholders to serve as conduits between others. In addition, understanding their own motivations—including values, knowledge, goals, and desired benefits—will help researchers decide when and how to involve stakeholders, identify areas of common ground and potential disagreement, frame the project appropriately, set expectations, and ensure each party is able to see benefits of engaging with each other. Finally, building relationships with stakeholders can be difficult but considering the roles of existing relationships, time, approach, reputation, and belonging can help build mutual trust. Although the three key elements and the paths between them can play out differently depending on the particular research project, we suggest that a research design that considers how to create the space in which researchers and stakeholders will meet, align motivations between researchers and stakeholders, and build mutual trust will help foster productive researcher-stakeholder relationships.}, language = {en} } @article{SchmidtNendelFunketal.2019, author = {Schmidt, Martin and Nendel, Claas and Funk, Roger and Mitchell, Matthew G. E. and Lischeid, Gunnar}, title = {Modeling Yields Response to Shading in the Field-to-Forest Transition Zones in Heterogeneous Landscapes}, series = {Agriculture}, volume = {9}, journal = {Agriculture}, number = {1}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2077-0472}, doi = {10.3390/agriculture9010006}, pages = {15}, year = {2019}, abstract = {In crop modeling and yield predictions, the heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes is usually not accounted for. This heterogeneity often arises from landscape elements like forests, hedges, or single trees and shrubs that cast shadows. Shading from forested areas or shrubs has effects on transpiration, temperature, and soil moisture, all of which affect the crop yield in the adjacent arable land. Transitional gradients of solar irradiance can be described as a function of the distance to the zero line (edge), the cardinal direction, and the height of trees. The magnitude of yield reduction in transition zones is highly influenced by solar irradiance-a factor that is not yet implemented in crop growth models on a landscape level. We present a spatially explicit model for shading caused by forested areas, in agricultural landscapes. With increasing distance to forest, solar irradiance and yield increase. Our model predicts that the shading effect from the forested areas occurs up to 15 m from the forest edge, for the simulated wheat yields, and up to 30 m, for simulated maize. Moreover, we estimated the spatial extent of transition zones, to calculate the regional yield reduction caused by shading of the forest edges, which amounted to 5\% to 8\% in an exemplary region.}, language = {en} } @article{SchmidtLischeidNendel2019, author = {Schmidt, Martin and Lischeid, Gunnar and Nendel, Claas}, title = {Microclimate and matter dynamics in transition zones of forest to arable land}, series = {Agricultural and forest meteorology}, volume = {268}, journal = {Agricultural and forest meteorology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0168-1923}, doi = {10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.01.001}, pages = {1 -- 10}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Human-driven fragmentation of landscapes leads to the formation of transition zones between ecosystems that are characterised by fluxes of matter, energy and information. These transition zones may offer rather inhospitable habitats that could jeopardise biodiversity. On the other hand, transition zones are also reported to be hotspots for biodiversity and even evolutionary processes. The general mechanisms and influence of processes in transition zones are poorly understood. Although heterogeneity and diversity of land use of fragments and the transition zones between them play an important role, most studies only refer to forested transition zones. Often, only an extrapolation of measurements in the different fragments themselves is reported to determine gradients in transition zones. This paper contributes to a quantitative understanding of agricultural landscapes beyond individual ecotopes, and towards connected ecosystem mosaics that may be beneficial for the provision of ecosystem services.}, language = {en} } @article{SavoyHesse2019, author = {Savoy, Heather and Heße, Falk}, title = {Dimension reduction for integrating data series in Bayesian inversion of geostatistical models}, series = {Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment}, volume = {33}, journal = {Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment}, number = {7}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {1436-3240}, doi = {10.1007/s00477-019-01697-9}, pages = {1327 -- 1344}, year = {2019}, abstract = {This study explores methods with which multidimensional data, e.g. time series, can be effectively incorporated into a Bayesian framework for inferring geostatistical parameters. Such series are difficult to use directly in the likelihood estimation procedure due to their high dimensionality; thus, a dimension reduction approach is taken to utilize these measurements in the inference. Two synthetic scenarios from hydrology are explored in which pumping drawdown and concentration breakthrough curves are used to infer the global mean of a log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity field. Both cases pursue the use of a parametric model to represent the shape of the observed time series with physically-interpretable parameters (e.g. the time and magnitude of a concentration peak), which is compared to subsets of the observations with similar dimensionality. The results from both scenarios highlight the effectiveness for the shape-matching models to reduce dimensionality from 100+ dimensions down to less than five. The models outperform the alternative subset method, especially when the observations are noisy. This approach to incorporating time series observations in the Bayesian framework for inferring geostatistical parameters allows for high-dimensional observations to be faithfully represented in lower-dimensional space for the non-parametric likelihood estimation procedure, which increases the applicability of the framework to more observation types. Although the scenarios are both from hydrogeology, the methodology is general in that no assumptions are made about the subject domain. Any application that requires the inference of geostatistical parameters using series in either time of space can use the approach described in this paper.}, language = {en} } @article{SairamSchroeterLuedtkeetal.2019, author = {Sairam, Nivedita and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and L{\"u}dtke, Stefan and Merz, Bruno and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {Quantifying Flood Vulnerability Reduction via Private Precaution}, series = {Earth future}, volume = {7}, journal = {Earth future}, number = {3}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1029/2018EF000994}, pages = {235 -- 249}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Private precaution is an important component in contemporary flood risk management and climate adaptation. However, quantitative knowledge about vulnerability reduction via private precautionary measures is scarce and their effects are hardly considered in loss modeling and risk assessments. However, this is a prerequisite to enable temporally dynamic flood damage and risk modeling, and thus the evaluation of risk management and adaptation strategies. To quantify the average reduction in vulnerability of residential buildings via private precaution empirical vulnerability data (n = 948) is used. Households with and without precautionary measures undertaken before the flood event are classified into treatment and nontreatment groups and matched. Postmatching regression is used to quantify the treatment effect. Additionally, we test state-of-the-art flood loss models regarding their capability to capture this difference in vulnerability. The estimated average treatment effect of implementing private precaution is between 11 and 15 thousand EUR per household, confirming the significant effectiveness of private precautionary measures in reducing flood vulnerability. From all tested flood loss models, the expert Bayesian network-based model BN-FLEMOps and the rule-based loss model FLEMOps perform best in capturing the difference in vulnerability due to private precaution. Thus, the use of such loss models is suggested for flood risk assessments to effectively support evaluations and decision making for adaptable flood risk management.}, language = {en} } @article{RoezerKreibichSchroeteretal.2019, author = {R{\"o}zer, Viktor and Kreibich, Heidi and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and M{\"u}ller, Meike and Sairam, Nivedita and Doss-Gollin, James and Lall, Upmanu and Merz, Bruno}, title = {Probabilistic Models Significantly Reduce Uncertainty in Hurricane Harvey Pluvial Flood Loss Estimates}, series = {Earths future}, volume = {7}, journal = {Earths future}, number = {4}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1029/2018EF001074}, pages = {384 -- 394}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Pluvial flood risk is mostly excluded in urban flood risk assessment. However, the risk of pluvial flooding is a growing challenge with a projected increase of extreme rainstorms compounding with an ongoing global urbanization. Considered as a flood type with minimal impacts when rainfall rates exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, the aftermath of rainfall-triggered flooding during Hurricane Harvey and other events show the urgent need to assess the risk of pluvial flooding. Due to the local extent and small-scale variations, the quantification of pluvial flood risk requires risk assessments on high spatial resolutions. While flood hazard and exposure information is becoming increasingly accurate, the estimation of losses is still a poorly understood component of pluvial flood risk quantification. We use a new probabilistic multivariable modeling approach to estimate pluvial flood losses of individual buildings, explicitly accounting for the associated uncertainties. Except for the water depth as the common most important predictor, we identified the drivers for having loss or not and for the degree of loss to be different. Applying this approach to estimate and validate building structure losses during Hurricane Harvey using a property level data set, we find that the reliability and dispersion of predictive loss distributions vary widely depending on the model and aggregation level of property level loss estimates. Our results show that the use of multivariable zero-inflated beta models reduce the 90\% prediction intervalsfor Hurricane Harvey building structure loss estimates on average by 78\% (totalling U.S.\$3.8 billion) compared to commonly used models.}, language = {en} }