@phdthesis{Bittermann2015,
  author    = {Bittermann, Klaus},
  title     = {Semi-empirical sea-level modelling},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-93881},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {v, 88},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Semi-empirical sea-level models (SEMs) exploit physically motivated empirical relationships between global sea level and certain drivers, in the following global mean temperature. This model class evolved as a supplement to process-based models (Rahmstorf (2007)) which were unable to fully represent all relevant processes. They thus failed to capture past sea-level change (Rahmstorf et al. (2012)) and were thought likely to underestimate future sea-level rise. Semi-empirical models were found to be a fast and useful tool for exploring the uncertainties in future sea-level rise, consistently giving significantly higher projections than process-based models. In the following different aspects of semi-empirical sea-level modelling have been studied. Models were first validated using various data sets of global sea level and temperature. SEMs were then used on the glacier contribution to sea level, and to infer past global temperature from sea-level data via inverse modelling. Periods studied encompass the instrumental period, covered by tide gauges (starting 1700 CE (Common Era) in Amsterdam) and satellites (first launched in 1992 CE), the era from 1000 BCE (before CE) to present, and the full length of the Holocene (using proxy data). Accordingly different data, model formulations and implementations have been used. It could be shown in Bittermann et al. (2013) that SEMs correctly predict 20th century sea-level when calibrated with data until 1900 CE. SEMs also turned out to give better predictions than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report (AR4, IPCC (2007)) models, for the period from 1961-2003 CE. With the first multi-proxy reconstruction of global sea-level as input, estimate of the human-induced component of modern sea-level change and projections of future sea-level rise were calculated (Kopp et al. (2016)). It turned out with 90\% confidence that more than 40 \% of the observed 20th century sea-level rise is indeed anthropogenic. With the new semi-empirical and IPCC (2013) 5th assessment report (AR5) projections the gap between SEM and process-based model projections closes, giving higher credibility to both. Combining all scenarios, from strong mitigation to business as usual, a global sea-level rise of 28-131 cm relative to 2000 CE, is projected with 90\% confidence. The decision for a low carbon pathway could halve the expected global sea-level rise by 2100 CE. Present day temperature and thus sea level are driven by the globally acting greenhouse-gas forcing. Unlike that, the Milankovich forcing, acting on Holocene timescales, results mainly in a northern-hemisphere temperature change. Therefore a semi-empirical model can be driven with northernhemisphere temperatures, which makes it possible to model the main subcomponent of sea-level change over this period. It showed that an additional positive constant rate of the order of the estimated Antarctic sea-level contribution is then required to explain the sea-level evolution over the Holocene. Thus the global sea level, following the climatic optimum, can be interpreted as the sum of a temperature induced sea-level drop and a positive long-term contribution, likely an ongoing response to deglaciation coming from Antarctica.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MishraPrasadAnoopetal.2015,
  author    = {Mishra, Praveen Kumar and Prasad, Sushma and Anoop, A. and Plessen, Birgit and Jehangir, Arshid and Gaye, Birgit and Menzel, Philip and Weise, Stephan M. and Yousuf, Abdul R.},
  title     = {Carbonate isotopes from high altitude Tso Moriri Lake (NW Himalayas) provide clues to late glacial and Holocene moisture source and atmospheric circulation changes},
  series = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  volume    = {425},
  journal   = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0031-0182},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.02.031},
  pages     = {76 -- 83},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {High resolution isotopic (delta O-18 and delta C-13) investigations on endogenic carbonates (calcite/aragonite) from Tso Moriri Lake, NW Himalaya show dramatic fluctuations during the late glacial and the early Holocene, and a persistent enrichment trend during the late Holocene. Changes in this lake are largely governed by the [input (meltwater + monsoon precipitation)/evaporationj (WE) ratio, also reflected in changes in the carbonate mineralogy with aragonite being formed during periods of lowest I/E. Using new isotopic data on endogenic carbonates in combination with the available data on geochemistry, mineralogy, and reconstructed mean annual precipitation, we demonstrate that the late glacial and early Holocene carbonate delta O-18 variability resulted from fluctuating Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation in NW Himalaya. This region experienced increasing ISM precipitation between ca. 13.1 and 11.7 cal ka and highest ISM precipitation during the early Holocene (11.2-8.5 cal ka). However, during the late Holocene, evaporation was the dominant control on the carbonate delta O-18. Regional comparison of reconstructed hydrological changes from Tso Moriri Lake with other archives from the Asian summer monsoon and westerlies domain shows that the intensified westerly influence that resulted in higher lake levels (after 8 cal ka) in central Asia was not strongly felt in NW Himalaya. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MishraAnoopSchettleretal.2015,
  author    = {Mishra, Praveen Kumar and Anoop, Ambili and Schettler, Georg and Prasad, Sushma and Jehangir, Arshid and Menzel, Peter and Naumann, Rudolf and Yousuf, A. R. and Basavaiah, Nathani and Deenadayalan, Kannan and Wiesner, Martin G. and Gaye, Birgit},
  title     = {Reconstructed late Quaternary hydrological changes from Lake Tso Moriri, NW Himalaya},
  series = {Quaternary international : the journal of the International Union for Quaternary Research},
  volume    = {371},
  journal   = {Quaternary international : the journal of the International Union for Quaternary Research},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {1040-6182},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.quaint.2014.11.040},
  pages     = {76 -- 86},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {We present the results of our investigations on the radiocarbon dated core sediments from the Lake Tso Moriri, NW Himalaya aimed at reconstructing palaeohydrological changes in this climatically sensitive region. Based on the detailed geochemical, mineralogical and sedimentological analysis, we recognise several short-term fluctuations superimposed upon seven major palaeohydrological stages identified in this lake since similar to 26 cal ka. Stage I (>20.2 cal ka): shallow lake characterised by input of coarse-grained detrital sediments; Stage II (20.2-16.4 cal ka): lake deepening and intensification of this trend ca. 18 cal ka; Stage III (16.4-11.2 cal ka): rising lake levels with a short term wet phase (13.1-11.7 cal ka); Stage IV (11.2-8.5 cal ka): early Holocene hydrological maxima and highest lake levels inferred to have resulted from early Holocene Indian monsoon intensification, as records from central Asia indicate weaker westerlies during this interval; Stage V (8.5-5.5 cal ka): mid-Holocene climate deterioration; Stage VI (5.5-2.7 cal ka): progressive lowering of lake level; Stage VII (2.7-0 cal ka): onset of modern conditions. The reconstructed hydrological variability in Lake Tso Moriri is governed by temperature changes (meltwater inflow) and monsoon precipitation (increased runoff). A regional comparison shows considerable differences with other palaeorecords from peninsular India during late Holocene. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SarkarPrasadWilkesetal.2015,
  author    = {Sarkar, Saswati and Prasad, Sushma and Wilkes, Heinz and Riedel, Nils and Stebich, Martina and Basavaiah, Nathani and Sachse, Dirk},
  title     = {Monsoon source shifts during the drying mid-Holocene: Biomarker isotope based evidence from the core 'monsoon zone' (CMZ) of India},
  series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  volume    = {123},
  journal   = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Oxford},
  issn      = {0277-3791},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.06.020},
  pages     = {144 -- 157},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {A better understanding of past variations of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), that plays a vital role for the still largely agro-based economy in India, can lead to a better assessment of its potential impact under global climate change scenarios. However, our knowledge of spatiotemporal patterns of ISM strength is limited due to the lack of high-resolution, continental paleohydrological records. Here, we reconstruct centennial-scale hydrological variability during the Holocene associated to changes in the intensity of the ISM based on a record of lipid biomarker abundances and compound-specific stable isotopic composition of a 10 m long sediment core from saline alkaline Lonar Lake, situated in the core 'monsoon zone' of central India. We identified three main periods of distinct hydrology during the Holocene in central India. The period between 10.1 and 6 cal ka BP was likely the wettest during the Holocene. Lower average chain length (ACL) index values (29.4-28.6) and negative delta C-13(wax) values (-34.8 parts per thousand to -27.8 parts per thousand) of leaf wax n-alkanes indicate the dominance of woody C-3 vegetation in the catchment, and negative delta D-wax values (concentration weighted average) (-171 parts per thousand to -147 parts per thousand) suggest a wet period due to an intensified monsoon. After 6 cal ka BP, a gradual shift to less negative delta C-13(wax) values (particularly for the grass derived n-C-31) and appearance of the triterpene lipid tetrahymanol, generally considered as a marker for salinity and water column stratification, mark the onset of drier conditions. At 5.1 cal ka BP an increasing flux of leaf wax n-alkanes along with the highest flux of tetrahymanol indicate a major lowering of the lake level. Between 4.8 and 4 cal ka BP, we find evidence for a transition to arid conditions, indicated by high and strongly variable tetrahymanol flux. In addition, a pronounced shift to less negative delta C-13(wax) values, in particular for n-C-31 (-25.2 parts per thousand to -22.8 parts per thousand), during this period indicates a change of dominant vegetation to C-4 grasses. In agreement with other proxy data, such as deposition of evaporite minerals, we interpret this period to reflect the driest conditions in the region during the last 10.1 ka. This transition led to protracted late Holocene arid conditions after 4 ka with the presence of a permanent saline lake, supported by the sustained presence of tetrahymanol and more positive average delta D-wax values (-122 parts per thousand to -141 parts per thousand). A late Holocene peak of cyanobacterial biomarker input at 1.3 cal ka BP might represent an event of lake eutrophication, possibly due to human impact and the onset of cattle/livestock farming in the catchment. A unique feature of our record is the presence of a distinct transitional period between 4.8 and 4 cal ka BP, which was characterized by some of the most negative delta D-wax values during the Holocene (up to -180 parts per thousand), when all other proxy data indicate the driest conditions during the Holocene. These negative delta D-wax values can as such most reasonably be explained by a shift in moisture source area and/or pathways or rainfall seasonality during this transitional period. We hypothesize that orbital induced weakening of the summer solar insolation and associated reorganization of the general atmospheric circulation, as a possible southward displacement of the tropical rainbelt, led to an unstable hydroclimate in central India between 4.8 and 4 ka.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{MischkeZhangFan2015,
  author    = {Mischke, Steffen and Zhang, Chengjun and Fan, Rong},
  title     = {Early to mid-Holocene lake high-stand sediments at Lake Donggi Cona, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, China -},
  series = {Quaternary research : an interdisciplinary journal},
  volume    = {83},
  journal   = {Quaternary research : an interdisciplinary journal},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {San Diego},
  issn      = {0033-5894},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.yqres.2014.06.005},
  pages     = {256 -- 258},
  year      = {2015},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SaviDelunelSchlunegger2015,
  author    = {Savi, Sara and Delunel, Romain and Schlunegger, Fritz},
  title     = {Efficiency of frost-cracking processes through space and time: An example from the eastern Italian Alps},
  series = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology},
  volume    = {232},
  journal   = {Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0169-555X},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.01.009},
  pages     = {248 -- 260},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {It is widely accepted that climate has a strong impact and exerts important feedbacks on erosional processes and sediment transport mechanisms. However, the extent at which climate influences erosion is still a matter of debate. In this paper we test whether frost-cracking processes and related temperature variations can influence the sediment production and surface erosion in a small catchment situated in the eastern Italian Alps. To this extent, we first present a geomorphic map of the region that we complement with published Be-10-based denudation rates. We then apply a preexisting heat-flow model in order to analyze the variations of the frost-cracking intensity (FCI) in the study area, which could have controlled the sediment production in the basin. Finally, we compare the model results with the pattern of denudation rates and Quaternary deposits in the geomorphic map. The model results, combined with field observations, mapping, and quantitative geomorphic analyses, reveal that frost-cracking processes have had a primary role in the production of sediment where the intensity of sediment supply has been dictated and limited by the combined effect of temperature variations and conditions of bedrock preservation. These results highlight the importance of a yet poorly understood process for the production of sediment in mountain areas. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{CaoHerzschuhNietal.2015,
  author    = {Cao, Xianyong and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Ni, Jian and Zhao, Yan and B{\"o}hmer, Thomas},
  title     = {Spatial and temporal distributions of major tree taxa in eastern continental Asia during the last 22,000 years},
  series = {The Holocene : an interdisciplinary journal focusing on recent environmental change},
  volume    = {25},
  journal   = {The Holocene : an interdisciplinary journal focusing on recent environmental change},
  number    = {1},
  publisher = {Sage Publ.},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {0959-6836},
  doi       = {10.1177/0959683614556385},
  pages     = {79 -- 91},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {This study investigates the spatial and temporal distributions of 14 key arboreal taxa and their driving forces during the last 22,000 calendar years before ad 1950 (kyr BP) using a taxonomically harmonized and temporally standardized fossil pollen dataset with a 500-year resolution from the eastern part of continental Asia. Logistic regression was used to estimate pollen abundance thresholds for vegetation occurrence (presence or dominance), based on modern pollen data and present ranges of 14 taxa in China. Our investigation reveals marked changes in spatial and temporal distributions of the major arboreal taxa. The thermophilous (Castanea, Castanopsis, Cyclobalanopsis, Fagus, Pterocarya) and eurythermal (Juglans, Quercus, Tilia, Ulmus) broadleaved tree taxa were restricted to the current tropical or subtropical areas of China during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and spread northward since c. 14.5kyr BP. Betula and conifer taxa (Abies, Picea, Pinus), in contrast, retained a wider distribution during the LGM and showed no distinct expansion direction during the Late Glacial. Since the late mid-Holocene, the abundance but not the spatial extent of most trees decreased. The changes in spatial and temporal distributions for the 14 taxa are a reflection of climate changes, in particular monsoonal moisture, and, in the late Holocene, human impact. The post-LGM expansion patterns in eastern continental China seem to be different from those reported for Europe and North America, for example, the westward spread for eurythermal broadleaved taxa.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{BattarbeeLambBennettetal.2015,
  author    = {Battarbee, Richard W. and Lamb, Henry F. and Bennett, Keith and Edwards, Mary and Bjune, Anne E. and Kaland, Peter E. and Berglund, Bj{\"o}rn E. and Lotter, Andr{\´e} F. and Sepp{\"a}, Heikki and Willis, Kathy J. and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Birks, Hilary H.},
  title     = {John Birks},
  series = {The Holocene},
  journal   = {The Holocene},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-404544},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {We describe the career of John Birks as a pioneering scientist who has, over a career spanning five decades, transformed palaeoecology from a largely descriptive to a rigorous quantitative science relevant to contemporary questions in ecology and environmental change. We review his influence on students and colleagues not only at Cambridge and Bergen Universities, his places of primary employment, but also on individuals and research groups in Europe and North America. We also introduce the collection of papers that we have assembled in his honour. The papers are written by his former students and close colleagues and span many of the areas of palaeoecology to which John himself has made major contributions. These include the relationship between ecology and palaeoecology, late-glacial and Holocene palaeoecology, ecological succession, climate change and vegetation history, the role of palaeoecological techniques in reconstructing and understanding the impact of human activity on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and numerical analysis of multivariate palaeoecological data.},
  language  = {en}
}