@phdthesis{Blaser2011,
  author    = {Blaser, Lilian},
  title     = {Bayesian networks for tsunami early warning},
  address   = {Potsdam},
  pages     = {127 S.},
  year      = {2011},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BlaserOhrnbergerKruegeretal.2012,
  author    = {Blaser, Lilian and Ohrnberger, Matthias and Kr{\"u}ger, Frank and Scherbaum, Frank},
  title     = {Probabilistic tsunami threat assessment of 10 recent earthquakes offshore Sumatra},
  series = {Geophysical journal international},
  volume    = {188},
  journal   = {Geophysical journal international},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell},
  address   = {Malden},
  issn      = {0956-540X},
  doi       = {10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05324.x},
  pages     = {1273 -- 1284},
  year      = {2012},
  abstract  = {Tsunami early warning (TEW) is a challenging task as a decision has to be made within few minutes on the basis of incomplete and error-prone data. Deterministic warning systems have difficulties in integrating and quantifying the intrinsic uncertainties. In contrast, probabilistic approaches provide a framework that handles uncertainties in a natural way. Recently, we have proposed a method using Bayesian networks (BNs) that takes into account the uncertainties of seismic source parameter estimates in TEW. In this follow-up study, the method is applied to 10 recent large earthquakes offshore Sumatra and tested for its performance. We have evaluated both the general model performance given the best knowledge we have today about the source parameters of the 10 events and the corresponding response on seismic source information evaluated in real-time. We find that the resulting site-specific warning level probabilities represent well the available tsunami wave measurements and observations. Difficulties occur in the real-time tsunami assessment if the moment magnitude estimate is severely over- or underestimated. In general, the probabilistic analysis reveals a considerably large range of uncertainties in the near-field TEW. By quantifying the uncertainties the BN analysis provides important additional information to a decision maker in a warning centre to deal with the complexity in TEW and to reason under uncertainty.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BlaserKruegerOhrnbergeretal.2010,
  author    = {Blaser, Lilian and Kr{\"u}ger, Frank and Ohrnberger, Matthias and Scherbaum, Frank},
  title     = {Scaling relations of earthquake source parameter estimates with special focus on subduction environment},
  issn      = {0037-1106},
  doi       = {10.1785/0120100111},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Earthquake rupture length and width estimates are in demand in many seismological applications. Earthquake magnitude estimates are often available, whereas the geometrical extensions of the rupture fault mostly are lacking. Therefore, scaling relations are needed to derive length and width from magnitude. Most frequently used are the relationships of Wells and Coppersmith (1994) derived on the basis of a large dataset including all slip types with the exception of thrust faulting events in subduction environments. However, there are many applications dealing with earthquakes in subduction zones because of their high seismic and tsunamigenic potential. There are no well-established scaling relations for moment magnitude and length/width for subduction events. Within this study, we compiled a large database of source parameter estimates of 283 earthquakes. All focal mechanisms are represented, but special focus is set on (large) subduction zone events, in particular. Scaling relations were fitted with linear least-square as well as orthogonal regression and analyzed regarding the difference between continental and subduction zone/oceanic relationships. Additionally, the effect of technical progress in earthquake parameter estimation on scaling relations was tested as well as the influence of different fault mechanisms. For a given moment magnitude we found shorter but wider rupture areas of thrust events compared to Wells and Coppersmith (1994). The thrust event relationships for pure continental and pure subduction zone rupture areas were found to be almost identical. The scaling relations differ significantly for slip types. The exclusion of events prior to 1964 when the worldwide standard seismic network was established resulted in a remarkable effect on strike-slip scaling relations: the data do not show any saturation of rupture width of strike- slip earthquakes. Generally, rupture area seems to scale with mean slip independent of magnitude. The aspect ratio L/W, however, depends on moment and differs for each slip type.},
  language  = {en}
}