@article{JackischZeheSamaniegoetal.2014, author = {Jackisch, Conrad and Zehe, Erwin and Samaniego, Luis and Singh, Anupam K.}, title = {An experiment to gauge an ungauged catchment: rapid data assessment and eco-hydrological modelling in a data-scarce rural catchment}, series = {Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques}, volume = {59}, journal = {Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques}, number = {12}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {0262-6667}, doi = {10.1080/02626667.2013.870662}, pages = {2103 -- 2125}, year = {2014}, abstract = {We conducted a PUB (predictions in ungauged basins) experiment looking at hydrology and crop dynamics in the semi-arid rural Mod catchment in India. The experiment was motivated by the aims (a) to develop a coupled eco-hydrological model capable of analysing land-use strategies concerning crop water need, erosion protection, crop yield and resistivity against droughts and floods, and (b) to assess the feasibility of a strategy for collecting the necessary data in a data-scarce region. Our experiment combines parsimonious data assessment and eco-hydrological model coupling at the lower mesoscale. Linking bottom-up sampling of functionally representative soil classes and top-down regionalization based on spectral properties of the same resulted in a comprehensive distributed data basis for the model. A clear focus on the dominating processes and the catena as the organizing landscape element in the given environmental setting enabled this. We employed the WASA (Water Availability in Semi-Arid environments) model for uncalibrated process-based water balance modelling and integrated a crop simulation subroutine based on the SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model to account for crop dynamics, feedbacks and yield estimation. While we found the data assessment strategy and the hydrological model application largely feasible, in terms of its accounting for scale, processes and model concepts, the simulation of feedbacks with crops was problematic. Contributing to the PUB issue, more general conclusions are drawn concerning spatially-distributed structural information and uncalibrated modelling. [GRAPHICS] Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor F. Hattermann}, language = {en} } @article{PereiraMedeirosFranckeetal.2019, author = {Pereira, Bruno and Medeiros, Pedro Henrique Augusto and Francke, Till and Ramalho, Geraldo and F{\"o}rster, Saskia and De Araujo, Jose Carlos}, title = {Assessment of the geometry and volumes of small surface water reservoirs by remote sensing in a semi-arid region with high reservoir density}, series = {Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques}, volume = {64}, journal = {Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques}, number = {1}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {0262-6667}, doi = {10.1080/02626667.2019.1566727}, pages = {66 -- 79}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Water fluxes in highly impounded regions are heavily dependent on reservoir properties. However, for large and remote areas, this information is often unavailable. In this study, the geometry and volume of small surface reservoirs in the semi-arid region of Brazil were estimated using terrain and shape attributes extracted by remote sensing. Regression models and data classification were used to predict the volumes, at different water stages, of 312 reservoirs for which topographic information is available. The power function used to describe the reservoir shapes tends to overestimate the volumes; therefore, a modified shape equation was proposed. Among the methods tested, four were recommended based on performance and simplicity, for which the mean absolute percentage errors varied from 24 to 39\%, in contrast to the 94\% error achieved with the traditional method. Despite the challenge of precisely deriving the flooded areas of reservoirs, water management in highly reservoir-dense environments should benefit from volume prediction based on remote sensing.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Guentner2002, author = {G{\"u}ntner, Andreas}, title = {Large-scale hydrological modelling in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0000511}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, year = {2002}, abstract = {Semi-arid areas are, due to their climatic setting, characterized by small water resources. An increasing water demand as a consequence of population growth and economic development as well as a decreasing water availability in the course of possible climate change may aggravate water scarcity in future, which often exists already for present-day conditions in these areas. Understanding the mechanisms and feedbacks of complex natural and human systems, together with the quantitative assessment of future changes in volume, timing and quality of water resources are a prerequisite for the development of sustainable measures of water management to enhance the adaptive capacity of these regions. For this task, dynamic integrated models, containing a hydrological model as one component, are indispensable tools. The main objective of this study is to develop a hydrological model for the quantification of water availability in view of environmental change over a large geographic domain of semi-arid environments. The study area is the Federal State of Cear{\´a} (150 000 km2) in the semi-arid north-east of Brazil. Mean annual precipitation in this area is 850 mm, falling in a rainy season with duration of about five months. Being mainly characterized by crystalline bedrock and shallow soils, surface water provides the largest part of the water supply. The area has recurrently been affected by droughts which caused serious economic losses and social impacts like migration from the rural regions. The hydrological model Wasa (Model of Water Availability in Semi-Arid Environments) developed in this study is a deterministic, spatially distributed model being composed of conceptual, process-based approaches. Water availability (river discharge, storage volumes in reservoirs, soil moisture) is determined with daily resolution. Sub-basins, grid cells or administrative units (municipalities) can be chosen as spatial target units. The administrative units enable the coupling of Wasa in the framework of an integrated model which contains modules that do not work on the basis of natural spatial units. The target units mentioned above are disaggregated in Wasa into smaller modelling units within a new multi-scale, hierarchical approach. The landscape units defined in this scheme capture in particular the effect of structured variability of terrain, soil and vegetation characteristics along toposequences on soil moisture and runoff generation. Lateral hydrological processes at the hillslope scale, as reinfiltration of surface runoff, being of particular importance in semi-arid environments, can thus be represented also within the large-scale model in a simplified form. Depending on the resolution of available data, small-scale variability is not represented explicitly with geographic reference in Wasa, but by the distribution of sub-scale units and by statistical transition frequencies for lateral fluxes between these units. Further model components of Wasa which respect specific features of semi-arid hydrology are: (1) A two-layer model for evapotranspiration comprises energy transfer at the soil surface (including soil evaporation), which is of importance in view of the mainly sparse vegetation cover. Additionally, vegetation parameters are differentiated in space and time in dependence on the occurrence of the rainy season. (2) The infiltration module represents in particular infiltration-excess surface runoff as the dominant runoff component. (3) For the aggregate description of the water balance of reservoirs that cannot be represented explicitly in the model, a storage approach respecting different reservoirs size classes and their interaction via the river network is applied. (4) A model for the quantification of water withdrawal by water use in different sectors is coupled to Wasa. (5) A cascade model for the temporal disaggregation of precipitation time series, adapted to the specific characteristics of tropical convective rainfall, is applied for the generating rainfall time series of higher temporal resolution. All model parameters of Wasa can be derived from physiographic information of the study area. Thus, model calibration is primarily not required. Model applications of Wasa for historical time series generally results in a good model performance when comparing the simulation results of river discharge and reservoir storage volumes with observed data for river basins of various sizes. The mean water balance as well as the high interannual and intra-annual variability is reasonably represented by the model. Limitations of the modelling concept are most markedly seen for sub-basins with a runoff component from deep groundwater bodies of which the dynamics cannot be satisfactorily represented without calibration. Further results of model applications are: (1) Lateral processes of redistribution of runoff and soil moisture at the hillslope scale, in particular reinfiltration of surface runoff, lead to markedly smaller discharge volumes at the basin scale than the simple sum of runoff of the individual sub-areas. Thus, these processes are to be captured also in large-scale models. The different relevance of these processes for different conditions is demonstrated by a larger percentage decrease of discharge volumes in dry as compared to wet years. (2) Precipitation characteristics have a major impact on the hydrological response of semi-arid environments. In particular, underestimated rainfall intensities in the rainfall input due to the rough temporal resolution of the model and due to interpolation effects and, consequently, underestimated runoff volumes have to be compensated in the model. A scaling factor in the infiltration module or the use of disaggregated hourly rainfall data show good results in this respect. The simulation results of Wasa are characterized by large uncertainties. These are, on the one hand, due to uncertainties of the model structure to adequately represent the relevant hydrological processes. On the other hand, they are due to uncertainties of input data and parameters particularly in view of the low data availability. Of major importance is: (1) The uncertainty of rainfall data with regard to their spatial and temporal pattern has, due to the strong non-linear hydrological response, a large impact on the simulation results. (2) The uncertainty of soil parameters is in general of larger importance on model uncertainty than uncertainty of vegetation or topographic parameters. (3) The effect of uncertainty of individual model components or parameters is usually different for years with rainfall volumes being above or below the average, because individual hydrological processes are of different relevance in both cases. Thus, the uncertainty of individual model components or parameters is of different importance for the uncertainty of scenario simulations with increasing or decreasing precipitation trends. (4) The most important factor of uncertainty for scenarios of water availability in the study area is the uncertainty in the results of global climate models on which the regional climate scenarios are based. Both a marked increase or a decrease in precipitation can be assumed for the given data. Results of model simulations for climate scenarios until the year 2050 show that a possible future change in precipitation volumes causes a larger percentage change in runoff volumes by a factor of two to three. In the case of a decreasing precipitation trend, the efficiency of new reservoirs for securing water availability tends to decrease in the study area because of the interaction of the large number of reservoirs in retaining the overall decreasing runoff volumes.}, subject = {Cear{\´a} / Semiarides Gebiet / Wasserreserve / Hydrologie / Mathematisches Modell}, language = {en} } @article{deFigueiredodeAraujoMedeirosetal.2016, author = {de Figueiredo, Jose Vidal and de Araujo, Jose Carlos and Medeiros, Pedro Henrique Augusto and Costa, Alexandre C.}, title = {Runoff initiation in a preserved semiarid Caatinga small watershed, Northeastern Brazil}, series = {Hydrological processes}, volume = {30}, journal = {Hydrological processes}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0885-6087}, doi = {10.1002/hyp.10801}, pages = {2390 -- 2400}, year = {2016}, abstract = {This study analyses some hydrological driving forces and their interrelation with surface-flow initiation in a semiarid Caatinga basin (12km(2)), Northeastern Brazil. During the analysis period (2005 - 2014), 118 events with precipitation higher than 10mm were monitored, providing 45 events with runoff, 25 with negligible runoff and 49 without runoff. To verify the dominant processes, 179 on-site measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) were conducted. The results showed that annual runoff coefficient lay below 0.5\% and discharge at the outlet has only occurred four days per annum on average, providing an insight to the surface-water scarcity of the Caatinga biome. The most relevant variables to explain runoff initiation were total precipitation and maximum 60-min rainfall intensity (I-60). Runoff always occurred when rainfall surpassed 31mm, but it never occurred for rainfall below 14mm or for I-60 below 12mmh(-1). The fact that the duration of the critical intensity is similar to the basin concentration time (65min) and that the infiltration threshold value approaches the river-bank saturated hydraulic conductivity support the assumption that Hortonian runoff prevails. However, none of the analysed variables (total or precedent precipitation, soil moisture content, rainfall intensities or rainfall duration) has been able to explain the runoff initiation in all monitored events: the best criteria, e.g. failed to explain 27\% of the events. It is possible that surface-flow initiation in the Caatinga biome is strongly influenced by the root-system dynamics, which changes macro-porosity status and, therefore, initial abstraction. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd.}, language = {en} } @article{MetzTielboerger2016, author = {Metz, Johannes and Tielboerger, Katja}, title = {Spatial and temporal aridity gradients provide poor proxies for plant-plant interactions under climate change: a large-scale experiment}, series = {Functional ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, volume = {30}, journal = {Functional ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0269-8463}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2435.12599}, pages = {20 -- 29}, year = {2016}, abstract = {1. Plant-plant interactions may critically modify the impact of climate change on plant communities. However, the magnitude and even direction of potential future interactions remains highly debated, especially for water-limited ecosystems. Predictions range from increasing facilitation to increasing competition with future aridification. 2. The different methodologies used for assessing plant-plant interactions under changing environmental conditions may affect the outcome but they are not equally represented in the literature. Mechanistic experimental manipulations are rare compared with correlative approaches that infer future patterns from current observations along spatial climatic gradients. 3. Here, we utilize a unique climatic gradient in combination with a large-scale, long-term experiment to test whether predictions about plant-plant interactions yield similar results when using experimental manipulations, spatial gradients or temporal variation. We assessed shrub-annual interactions in three different sites along a natural rainfall gradient (spatial) during 9 years of varying rainfall (temporal) and 8 years of dry and wet manipulations of ambient rainfall (experimental) that closely mimicked regional climate scenarios. 4. The results were fundamentally different among all three approaches. Experimental water manipulations hardly altered shrub effects on annual plant communities for the assessed fitness parameters biomass and survival. Along the spatial gradient, shrub effects shifted from clearly negative to mildly facilitative towards drier sites, whereas temporal variation showed the opposite trend: more negative shrub effects in drier years. 5. Based on our experimental approach, we conclude that shrub-annual interaction will remain similar under climate change. In contrast, the commonly applied space-for-time approach based on spatial gradients would have suggested increasing facilitative effects with climate change. We discuss potential mechanisms governing the differences among the three approaches. 6. Our study highlights the critical importance of long-term experimental manipulations for evaluating climate change impacts. Correlative approaches, for example along spatial or temporal gradients, may be misleading and overestimate the response of plant-plant interactions to climate change.}, language = {en} }