@article{KruseEppWieczoreketal.2018,
  author    = {Kruse, Stefan and Epp, Laura Saskia and Wieczorek, Mareike and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {High gene flow and complex treeline dynamics of Larix Mill. stands on the Taymyr Peninsula (north-central Siberia) revealed by nuclear microsatellites},
  series = {Tree Genetics \& Genomes},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Tree Genetics \& Genomes},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {Heidelberg},
  issn      = {1614-2942},
  doi       = {10.1007/s11295-018-1235-3},
  pages     = {14},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Arctic treelines are facing a strong temperature increase as a result of recent global warming, causing possible changes in forest extent, which will alter vegetation-climate feedbacks. However, the mode and strength of the response is rather unclear, as potential changes are happening in areas that are very remote and difficult to access, and empirical data are still largely lacking. Here, we assessed the current population structure and genetic differentiation of Larix Mill. tree stands within the northernmost latitudinal treeline reaching ~ 72° N in the southern lowlands of the Taymyr Peninsula (~ 100° E). We sampled 743 individuals belonging to different height classes (seedlings, saplings, trees) at 11 locations along a gradient from 'single tree' tundra over 'forest line' to 'dense forest' stands and conducted investigations applying eight highly polymorphic nuclear microsatellites. Results suggest a high diversity within sub-populations (HE = 0.826-0.893), coupled, however, with heterozygote deficits in all sub-populations, but pronounced in 'forest line' stands. Overall, genetic differentiation of sub-populations is low (FST = 0.005), indicating a region-wide high gene flow, although 'forest line' stands harbour few rare and private alleles, likely indicating greater local reproduction. 'Single tree' stands, located beyond the northern forest line, are currently not involved in treeline expansion, but show signs of a long-term refuge, namely asexual reproduction and change of growth-form from erect to creeping growth, possibly having persisted for thousands of years. The lack of differentiation between the sub-populations points to a sufficiently high dispersal potential, and thus a rapid northward migration of the Siberian arctic treeline under recent global warming seems potentially unconstrained, but observations show it to be unexpectedly slow.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{KruseGerdesKathetal.2018,
  author    = {Kruse, Stefan and Gerdes, Alexander and Kath, Nadja J. and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Implementing spatially explicit wind-driven seed and pollen dispersal in the individual-based larch simulation model},
  series = {Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  volume    = {11},
  journal   = {Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union},
  number    = {11},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1991-959X},
  doi       = {10.5194/gmd-11-4451-2018},
  pages     = {4451 -- 4467},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{EppKruseKathetal.2018,
  author    = {Epp, Laura Saskia and Kruse, Stefan and Kath, Nadja J. and Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Tiedemann, Ralph and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Temporal and spatial patterns of mitochondrial haplotype and species distributions in Siberian larches inferred from ancient environmental DNA and modeling},
  series = {Scientific reports},
  volume    = {8},
  journal   = {Scientific reports},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {2045-2322},
  doi       = {10.1038/s41598-018-35550-w},
  pages     = {9},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Changes in species' distributions are classically projected based on their climate envelopes. For Siberian forests, which have a tremendous significance for vegetation-climate feedbacks, this implies future shifts of each of the forest-forming larch (Larix) species to the north-east. However, in addition to abiotic factors, reliable projections must assess the role of historical biogeography and biotic interactions. Here, we use sedimentary ancient DNA and individual-based modelling to investigate the distribution of larch species and mitochondrial haplotypes through space and time across the treeline ecotone on the southern Taymyr peninsula, which at the same time presents a boundary area of two larch species. We find spatial and temporal patterns, which suggest that forest density is the most influential driver determining the precise distribution of species and mitochondrial haplotypes. This suggests a strong influence of competition on the species' range shifts. These findings imply possible climate change outcomes that are directly opposed to projections based purely on climate envelopes. Investigations of such fine-scale processes of biodiversity change through time are possible using paleoenvironmental DNA, which is available much more readily than visible fossils and can provide information at a level of resolution that is not reached in classical palaeoecology.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{EppKruseKathetal.2018,
  author    = {Epp, Laura Saskia and Kruse, Stefan and Kath, Nadja J. and Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie and Tiedemann, Ralph and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Temporal and spatial patterns of mitochondrial haplotype and species distributions in Siberian larches inferred from ancient environmental DNA and modeling},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {1052},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-46835},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468352},
  pages     = {11},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Changes in species' distributions are classically projected based on their climate envelopes. For Siberian forests, which have a tremendous significance for vegetation-climate feedbacks, this implies future shifts of each of the forest-forming larch (Larix) species to the north-east. However, in addition to abiotic factors, reliable projections must assess the role of historical biogeography and biotic interactions. Here, we use sedimentary ancient DNA and individual-based modelling to investigate the distribution of larch species and mitochondrial haplotypes through space and time across the treeline ecotone on the southern Taymyr peninsula, which at the same time presents a boundary area of two larch species. We find spatial and temporal patterns, which suggest that forest density is the most influential driver determining the precise distribution of species and mitochondrial haplotypes. This suggests a strong influence of competition on the species' range shifts. These findings imply possible climate change outcomes that are directly opposed to projections based purely on climate envelopes. Investigations of such fine-scale processes of biodiversity change through time are possible using paleoenvironmental DNA, which is available much more readily than visible fossils and can provide information at a level of resolution that is not reached in classical palaeoecology.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{KruseGerdesKathetal.2018,
  author    = {Kruse, Stefan and Gerdes, Alexander and Kath, Nadja J. and Herzschuh, Ulrike},
  title     = {Implementing spatially explicit wind-driven seed and pollen dispersal in the individual-based larch simulation model},
  series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  journal   = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe},
  number    = {929},
  issn      = {1866-8372},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44597},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445978},
  pages     = {4451 -- 4467},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination of ovules is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimized for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesize that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterized a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of ovules of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the pollen donor. A local sensitivity analysis of both processes supported the robustness of the model's results to the parameterization, although it highlighted the importance of recruitment and seed dispersal traits for migration rates. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. Finally, we suggest how the final model can be applied to substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.},
  language  = {en}
}