@article{ReineckeTrautmannWageneretal.2022,
  author    = {Reinecke, Robert and Trautmann, Tim and Wagener, Thorsten and Sch{\"u}ler, Katja},
  title     = {The critical need to foster computational reproducibility},
  series = {Environmental research letters},
  volume    = {17},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac5cf8},
  pages     = {5},
  year      = {2022},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GuentherSchueleZurelletal.2023,
  author    = {G{\"u}nther, Oliver and Sch{\"u}le, Manja and Zurell, Damaris and Jeltsch, Florian and Roeleke, Manuel and Kampe, Heike and Zimmermann, Matthias and Scholz, Jana and Mikulla, Stefanie and Engbert, Ralf and Elsner, Birgit and Schlangen, David and Agrofylax, Luisa and Georgi, Doreen and Weymar, Mathias and Wagener, Thorsten and Bookhagen, Bodo and Eibl, Eva P. S. and Korup, Oliver and Oswald, Sascha and Thieken, Annegret and van der Beek, Peter},
  title     = {Portal Wissen = Excellence},
  series = {Portal Wissen: The research magazine of the University of Potsdam},
  journal   = {Portal Wissen: The research magazine of the University of Potsdam},
  number    = {02/2023},
  issn      = {2198-9974},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-61145},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-611456},
  pages     = {58},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {When something is not just good or very good, we often call it excellent. But what does that really mean? Coming from the Latin word "excellere," it describes things, persons, or actions that are outstanding or superior and distinguish themselves from others. It cannot get any better. Excellence is the top choice for being the first or the best. Research is no exception. At the university, you will find numerous exceptional researchers, outstanding projects, and, time and again, sensational findings, publications, and results. But is the University of Potsdam also excellent? A question that will certainly create a different stir in 2023 than it did perhaps 20 years ago. Since the launch of the Excellence Initiative in 2005, universities that succeed in winning the most comprehensive funding program for research in Germany have been considered - literally - excellent. Whether in the form of graduate schools, research clusters, or - since the program was continued in 2019 under the title "Excellence Strategy" - entire universities of excellence: Anyone who wants to be among the best research universities needs the seal of excellence. The University of Potsdam is applying for funding with three cluster proposals in the recently launched new round of the "Excellence Strategy of the German Federal and State Governments." One proposal comes from ecology and biodiversity research. The aim is to paint a comprehensive picture of ecological processes by examining the role of single individuals as well as the interactions among many species in an ecosystem to precisely determine the function of biodiversity. A second proposal has been submitted by the cognitive sciences. Here, the complex coexistence of language and cognition, development and learning, as well as motivation and behavior will be researched as a dynamic interrelation. The projects will include cooperation with the educational sciences to constantly consider linked learning and educational processes. The third proposal from the geo and environmental sciences concentrates on extreme and particularly devastating natural hazards and processes such as floods and droughts. The researchers examine these extreme events, focusing on their interaction with society, to be able to better assess the risks and damages they might involve and to initiate timely measures in the future. "All three proposals highlight the excellence of our performance," emphasizes University President Prof. Oliver G{\"u}nther, Ph.D. "The outlines impressively document our commitment, existing research excellence, and the potential of the University of Potsdam as a whole. The fact that three powerful consortia have come together in different subject areas shows that we have taken a good step forward on our way to becoming one of the top German universities." In this issue, we are looking at what is in and behind these proposals: We talked to the researchers who wrote them. We asked them about their plans in case their proposals are successful and they bring a cluster of excellence to the university. But we also looked at the research that has led to the proposals, has long shaped the university's profile, and earned it national and international recognition. We present a small selection of projects, methods, and researchers to illustrate why there really is excellent research in these proposals! By the way, "excellence" is also not the end of the flagpole. After all, the adjective "excellent" even has a comparative and a superlative. With this in mind, I wish you the most excellent pleasure reading this issue!},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{GuentherSchueleZurelletal.2023,
  author    = {G{\"u}nther, Oliver and Sch{\"u}le, Manja and Zurell, Damaris and Jeltsch, Florian and Roeleke, Manuel and Kampe, Heike and Zimmermann, Matthias and Scholz, Jana and Engbert, Ralf and Elsner, Birgit and Schlangen, David and Agrofylax, Luisa and Georgi, Doreen and Weymar, Mathias and Wagener, Thorsten and Bookhagen, Bodo and Eibl, Eva P. S. and Korup, Oliver and Oswald, Sascha and Thieken, Annegret and van der Beek, Peter},
  title     = {Portal Wissen = Exzellenz},
  series = {Portal Wissen: Das Forschungsmagazin der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  journal   = {Portal Wissen: Das Forschungsmagazin der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  number    = {02/2023},
  issn      = {2194-4245},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-61144},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-611440},
  pages     = {98},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Was nicht nur gut oder sehr gut ist, nennen wir gern exzellent. Aber was meint das eigentlich? Vom lateinischen „excellere" kommend, beschreibt es Dinge, Personen oder Handlungen, die „hervor-" oder „herausragen" aus der Menge, sich „auszeichnen" gegen{\"u}ber anderen. Mehr geht nicht. Exzellenz ist das Mittel der Wahl, wenn es darum geht, der Erste oder Beste zu sein. Und das macht auch vor der Forschung nicht halt. Wer auf die Universit{\"a}t Potsdam schaut, findet zahlreiche ausgezeichnete Forschende, hervorragende Projekte und immer wieder auch aufsehenerregende Erkenntnisse, Ver{\"o}ffentlichungen und Ergebnisse. Aber ist die UP auch exzellent? Eine Frage, die 2023 ganz sicher andere Wellen schl{\"a}gt als vielleicht vor 20 Jahren. Denn seit dem Start der Exzellenzinitiative 2005 gelten als - w{\"o}rtlich - exzellent jene Hochschulen, denen es gelingt, in dem umfangreichsten F{\"o}rderprogramm f{\"u}r Wissenschaft in Deutschland einen Zuschlag zu erhalten. Egal ob in Form von Graduiertenschulen, Forschungsclustern oder - seit Fortsetzung des Programms ab 2019 unter dem Titel „Exzellenzstrategie" - ganzen Exzellenzuniversit{\"a}ten: Wer im Kreis der Forschungsuniversit{\"a}ten zu den Besten geh{\"o}ren will, braucht das Siegel der Exzellenz. In der gerade eingel{\"a}uteten neuen Wettbewerbsrunde der „Exzellenzstrategie des Bundes und der L{\"a}nder" bewirbt sich die Universit{\"a}t Potsdam mit drei Clusterskizzen um F{\"o}rderung. Ein Antrag kommt aus der {\"O}kologie- und Biodiversit{\"a}tsforschung. Ziel ist es, ein komplexes Bild {\"o}kologischer Prozesse zu zeichnen - und dabei die Rolle von einzelnen Individuen ebenso zu betrachten wie das Zusammenwirken vieler Arten in einem {\"O}kosystem, um die Funktion der Artenvielfalt genauer zu bestimmen. Eine zweite Skizze haben die Kognitionswissenschaften eingereicht. Hier soll das komplexe Nebeneinander von Sprache und Kognition, Entwicklung und Lernen sowie Motivation und Verhalten als dynamisches Miteinander erforscht werden - wobei auch mit den Erziehungswissenschaften kooperiert wird, um verkn{\"u}pfte Lernund Bildungsprozesse stets mitzudenken. Der dritte Antrag aus den Geo- und Umweltwissenschaften nimmt extreme und besonders folgenschwere Naturgefahren und -prozesse wie {\"U}berschwemmungen und D{\"u}rren in den Blick. Die Forschenden untersuchen die Extremereignisse mit besonderem Fokus auf deren Wechselwirkung mit der Gesellschaft, um mit ihnen einhergehende Risiken und Sch{\"a}den besser einsch{\"a}tzen sowie k{\"u}nftig rechtzeitig Maßnahmen einleiten zu k{\"o}nnen. „Alle drei Antr{\"a}ge zeichnen ein hervorragendes Bild unserer Leistungsf{\"a}higkeit", betont der Pr{\"a}sident der Universit{\"a}t, Prof. Oliver G{\"u}nther, Ph.D. „Die Skizzen dokumentieren eindrucksvoll unser Engagement, vorhandene Forschungsexzellenz sowie die Potenziale der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam insgesamt. Allein die Tatsache, dass sich drei schlagkr{\"a}ftige Konsortien in ganz unterschiedlichen Themenbereichen zusammengefunden haben, zeigt, dass wir auf unserem Weg in die Spitzengruppe der deutschen Universit{\"a}ten einen guten Schritt vorangekommen sind." In diesem Heft schauen wir, was sich in und hinter diesen Antr{\"a}gen verbirgt: Wir haben mit den Wissenschaftlerinnen und Wissenschaftlern gesprochen, die sie geschrieben haben, und sie gefragt, was sie sich vornehmen, sollten sie den Zuschlag erhalten und ein Cluster an die Universit{\"a}t holen. Wir haben aber auch auf die Forschung geschaut, die zu den Antr{\"a}gen gef{\"u}hrt hat und die schon l{\"a}nger das Profil der Universit{\"a}t pr{\"a}gt und ihr national wie international Anerkennung eingebracht hat. Wir stellen eine kleine Auswahl an Projekten, Methoden und Forschenden vor, um zu zeigen, warum in diesen Antr{\"a}gen tats{\"a}chlich exzellente Forschung steckt! {\"U}brigens: Auch „Exzellenz" ist nicht das Ende der Fahnenstange. Immerhin l{\"a}sst sich das Adjektiv exzellent sogar steigern. In diesem Sinne w{\"u}nschen wir exzellentestes Vergn{\"u}gen beim Lesen!},
  language  = {de}
}
@article{DevittNealWageneretal.2021,
  author    = {Devitt, Laura and Neal, Jeffrey and Wagener, Thorsten and Coxon, Gemma},
  title     = {Uncertainty in the extreme flood magnitude estimates of large-scale flood hazard models},
  series = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics},
  volume    = {16},
  journal   = {Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics},
  number    = {6},
  publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.},
  address   = {Bristol},
  issn      = {1748-9326},
  doi       = {10.1088/1748-9326/abfac4},
  pages     = {15},
  year      = {2021},
  abstract  = {The growing worldwide impact of flood events has motivated the development and application of global flood hazard models (GFHMs). These models have become useful tools for flood risk assessment and management, especially in regions where little local hazard information is available. One of the key uncertainties associated with GFHMs is the estimation of extreme flood magnitudes to generate flood hazard maps. In this study, the 1-in-100 year flood (Q100) magnitude was estimated using flow outputs from four global hydrological models (GHMs) and two global flood frequency analysis datasets for 1350 gauges across the conterminous US. The annual maximum flows of the observed and modelled timeseries of streamflow were bootstrapped to evaluate the sensitivity of the underlying data to extrapolation. Results show that there are clear spatial patterns of bias associated with each method. GHMs show a general tendency to overpredict Western US gauges and underpredict Eastern US gauges. The GloFAS and HYPE models underpredict Q100 by more than 25\% in 68\% and 52\% of gauges, respectively. The PCR-GLOBWB and CaMa-Flood models overestimate Q100 by more than 25\% at 60\% and 65\% of gauges in West and Central US, respectively. The global frequency analysis datasets have spatial variabilities that differ from the GHMs. We found that river basin area and topographic elevation explain some of the spatial variability in predictive performance found in this study. However, there is no single model or method that performs best everywhere, and therefore we recommend a weighted ensemble of predictions of extreme flood magnitudes should be used for large-scale flood hazard assessment.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{WagenerReineckePianosi2022,
  author    = {Wagener, Thorsten and Reinecke, Robert and Pianosi, Francesca},
  title     = {On the evaluation of climate change impact models},
  series = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews : Climate change},
  volume    = {13},
  journal   = {Wiley interdisciplinary reviews : Climate change},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {Wiley},
  address   = {Hoboken},
  issn      = {1757-7780},
  doi       = {10.1002/wcc.772},
  pages     = {13},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {In-depth understanding of the potential implications of climate change is required to guide decision- and policy-makers when developing adaptation strategies and designing infrastructure suitable for future conditions. Impact models that translate potential future climate conditions into variables of interest are needed to create the causal connection between a changing climate and its impact for different sectors. Recent surveys suggest that the primary strategy for validating such models (and hence for justifying their use) heavily relies on assessing the accuracy of model simulations by comparing them against historical observations. We argue that such a comparison is necessary and valuable, but not sufficient to achieve a comprehensive evaluation of climate change impact models. We believe that a complementary, largely observation-independent, step of model evaluation is needed to ensure more transparency of model behavior and greater robustness of scenario-based analyses. This step should address the following four questions: (1) Do modeled dominant process controls match our system perception? (2) Is my model's sensitivity to changing forcing as expected? (3) Do modeled decision levers show adequate influence? (4) Can we attribute uncertainty sources throughout the projection horizon? We believe that global sensitivity analysis, with its ability to investigate a model's response to joint variations of multiple inputs in a structured way, offers a coherent approach to address all four questions comprehensively. Such additional model evaluation would strengthen stakeholder confidence in model projections and, therefore, into the adaptation strategies derived with the help of impact models. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change},
  language  = {en}
}