@article{WarcholdPradhanThapaetal.2022, author = {Warchold, Anne and Pradhan, Prajal and Thapa, Pratibha and Putra, Muhammad Panji Islam Fajar and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Building a unified sustainable development goal database}, series = {Sustainable development}, journal = {Sustainable development}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0968-0802}, doi = {10.1002/sd.2316}, pages = {16}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The 2020s are an essential decade for achieving the 2030 Agenda and its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For this, SDG research needs to provide evidence that can be translated into concrete actions. However, studies use different SDG data, resulting in incomparable findings. Researchers primarily use SDG databases provided by the United Nations (UN), the World Bank Group (WBG), and the Bertelsmann Stiftung \& Sustainable Development Solutions Network (BE-SDSN). We compile these databases into one unified SDG database and examine the effects of the data selection on our understanding of SDG interactions. Among the databases, we observed more different than similar SDG interactions. Differences in synergies and trade-offs mainly occur for SDGs that are environmentally oriented. Due to the increased data availability, the unified SDG database offers a more nuanced and reliable view of SDG interactions. Thus, the SDG data selection may lead to diverse findings, fostering actions that might neglect or exacerbate trade-offs.}, language = {en} } @article{AtharePradhanSinghetal.2022, author = {Athare, Tushar Ramchandra and Pradhan, Prajal and Singh, S. R. K. and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {India consists of multiple food systems with scoioeconomic and environmental variations}, series = {PLOS ONE / Public Library of Science}, volume = {17}, journal = {PLOS ONE / Public Library of Science}, number = {8}, publisher = {PLoS}, address = {San Fransisco}, issn = {1932-6203}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0270342}, pages = {18}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Agriculture in India accounts for 18\% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and uses significant land and water. Various socioeconomic factors and food subsidies influence diets in India. Indian food systems face the challenge of sustainably nourishing the 1.3 billion population. However, existing studies focus on a few food system components, and holistic analysis is still missing. We identify Indian food systems covering six food system components: food consumption, production, processing, policy, environmental footprints, and socioeconomic factors from the latest Indian household consumer expenditure survey. We identify 10 Indian food systems using k-means cluster analysis on 15 food system indicators belonging to the six components. Based on the major source of calorie intake, we classify the ten food systems into production-based (3), subsidy-based (3), and market-based (4) food systems. Home-produced and subsidized food contribute up to 2000 kcal/consumer unit (CU)/day and 1651 kcal/CU/day, respectively, in these food systems. The calorie intake of 2158 to 3530 kcal/CU/day in the food systems reveals issues of malnutrition in India. Environmental footprints are commensurate with calorie intake in the food systems. Embodied GHG, land footprint, and water footprint estimates range from 1.30 to 2.19 kg CO(2)eq/CU/day, 3.89 to 6.04 m(2)/CU/day, and 2.02 to 3.16 m(3)/CU/day, respectively. Our study provides a holistic understanding of Indian food systems for targeted nutritional interventions on household malnutrition in India while also protecting planetary health.}, language = {en} } @article{AtharePradhanKropp2020, author = {Athare, Tushar Ramchandra and Pradhan, Prajal and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Environmental implications and socioeconomic characterisation of Indian diets}, series = {The science of the total environment}, volume = {737}, journal = {The science of the total environment}, publisher = {Elsevier Science}, address = {Amsterdam [u.a.]}, issn = {0048-9697}, doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139881}, pages = {9}, year = {2020}, abstract = {India is facing a double burden of malnourishment with co-existences of under- and over-nourishment. Various socioeconomic factors play an essential role in determining dietary choices. Agriculture is one of the major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in India, contributing 18\% of total emissions. It also consumes freshwater and uses land significantly. We identify eleven Indian diets by applying k-means cluster analysis on latest data from the Indian household consumer expenditure survey. The diets vary in calorie intake [2289-3218 kcal/Consumer Unit (CU)/day] and dietary composition. Estimated embodied GHG emissions in the diets range from 1.36 to 3.62 kg CO2eq./CU/day, land footprint from 4 to 5.45 m(2)/CU/day, whereas water footprint varies from 2.13 to 2.97m(3)/CU/day. Indian diets deviate from a healthy reference diet either with too much or too little consumption of certain food groups. Overall, cereals, sugar, and dairy products intake are higher. In contrast, the consumption of fruits and vegetables, pulses, and nuts is lower than recommended. Our study contributes to deriving required polices for the sustainable transformation of food systems in India to eliminate malnourishment and to reduce the environmental implications of the food systems. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{PradhanKropp2020, author = {Pradhan, Prajal and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Interplay between diets, health, and climate change}, series = {Sustainability}, volume = {12}, journal = {Sustainability}, number = {9}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2071-1050}, doi = {10.3390/su12093878}, pages = {14}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The world is facing a triple burden of undernourishment, obesity, and environmental impacts from agriculture while nourishing its population. This burden makes sustainable nourishment of the growing population a global challenge. Addressing this challenge requires an understanding of the interplay between diets, health, and associated environmental impacts (e.g., climate change). For this, we identify 11 typical diets that represent dietary habits worldwide for the last five decades. Plant-source foods provide most of all three macronutrients (carbohydrates, protein, and fat) in developing countries. In contrast, animal-source foods provide a majority of protein and fat in developed ones. The identified diets deviate from the recommended healthy diet with either too much (e.g., red meat) or too little (e.g., fruits and vegetables) food and nutrition supply. The total calorie supplies are lower than required for two diets. Sugar consumption is higher than recommended for five diets. Three and five diets consist of larger-than-recommended carbohydrate and fat shares, respectively. Four diets with a large share of animal-source foods exceed the recommended value of red meat. Only two diets consist of at least 400 gm/cap/day of fruits and vegetables while accounting for food waste. Prevalence of undernourishment and underweight dominates in the diets with lower calories. In comparison, a higher prevalence of obesity is observed for diets with higher calories with high shares of sugar, fat, and animal-source foods. However, embodied emissions in the diets do not show a clear relation with calorie supplies and compositions. Two high-calorie diets embody more than 1.5 t CO2eq/cap/yr, and two low-calorie diets embody around 1 t CO2eq/cap/yr. Our analysis highlights that sustainable and healthy diets can serve the purposes of both nourishing the population and, at the same time, reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture.}, language = {en} } @article{WarcholdPradhanKropp2020, author = {Warchold, Anne and Pradhan, Prajal and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Variations in sustainable development goal interactions}, series = {Sustainable development}, volume = {29}, journal = {Sustainable development}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0968-0802}, doi = {10.1002/sd.2145}, pages = {285 -- 299}, year = {2020}, abstract = {To fulfill the 2030 Agenda, the complexity of sustainable development goal (SDG) interactions needs to be disentangled. However, this understanding is currently limited. We conduct a cross-sectional correlational analysis for 2016 to understand SDG interactions under the entire development spectrum. We apply several correlation methods to classify the interaction as synergy or trade-off and characterize them according to their monotony and linearity. Simultaneously, we analyze SDG interactions considering population, location, income, and regional groups. Our findings highlight that synergies always outweigh trade-offs and linear outweigh non-linear interactions. SDG 1, 5, and 6 are associated with linear synergies, SDG 3, and 7 with non-linear synergies. SDG interactions vary according to a country's income and region along with the gender, age, and location of its population. In summary, to achieve the 2030 Agenda the detected interactions and inequalities across countries need be tracked and leveraged to "leave no one behind."}, language = {en} } @article{HerreroThorntonMasonD'Crozetal.2020, author = {Herrero, Mario and Thornton, Philip K. and Mason-D'Croz, Daniel and Palmer, Jeda and Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon and Pradhan, Prajal and Barrett, Christopher B. and Benton, Tim G. and Hall, Andrew and Pikaar, Ilje and Bogard, Jessica R. and Bonnett, Graham D. and Bryan, Brett A. and Campbell, Bruce M. and Christensen, Svend and Clark, Michael and Fanzo, Jessica and Godde, Cecile M. and Jarvis, Andy and Loboguerrero, Ana Maria and Mathys, Alexander and McIntyre, C. Lynne and Naylor, Rosamond L. and Nelson, Rebecca and Obersteiner, Michael and Parodi, Alejandro and Popp, Alexander and Ricketts, Katie and Smith, Pete and Valin, Hugo and Vermeulen, Sonja J. and Vervoort, Joost and van Wijk, Mark and van Zanten, Hannah H. E. and West, Paul C. and Wood, Stephen A. and Rockstr{\"o}m, Johan}, title = {Articulating the effect of food systems innovation on the Sustainable Development Goals}, series = {The lancet Planetary health}, volume = {5}, journal = {The lancet Planetary health}, number = {1}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {2542-5196}, doi = {10.1016/S2542-5196(20)30277-1}, pages = {E50 -- E62}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.}, language = {en} } @article{LandholmPradhanKropp2019, author = {Landholm, David M. and Pradhan, Prajal and Kropp, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Diverging forest land use dynamics induced by armed conflict across the tropics}, series = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, volume = {56}, journal = {Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0959-3780}, doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.006}, pages = {86 -- 94}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Armed conflicts trigger region-specific mechanisms that affect land use change. Deforestation is presented as one of the most common negative environmental impacts resulting from armed conflicts, with relevant consequences in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and loss of ecosystem services. However, the impact of armed conflict on forests is complex and may simultaneously lead to positive and negative environmental outcomes, i.e. forest regrowth and deforestation, in different regions even within a country. We investigate the impact that armed conflict exerted over forest dynamics at different spatial scales in Colombia and for the global tropics during the period 1992-2015. Through the analysis of its internally displaced population (departures) our results suggest that, albeit finding forest regrowth in some municipalities, the Colombian conflict predominantly exerted a negative impact on its forests. A further examination of georeferenced fighting locations in Colombia and across the globe shows that conflict areas were 8 and 4 times more likely to undergo deforestation, respectively, in the following years in relation to average deforestation rates. This study represents a municipality level, long-term spatial analysis of the diverging effects the Colombian conflict exerted over its forest dynamics over two distinct periods of increasing and decreasing conflict intensity. Moreover, it presents the first quantified estimate of conflict's negative impact on forest ecosystems across the globe. The relationship between armed conflict and land use change is of global relevance given the recent increase of armed conflicts across the world and the importance of a possible exacerbation of armed conflicts and migration as climate change impacts increase.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Pradhan2015, author = {Pradhan, Prajal}, title = {Food demand and supply under global change}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-77849}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {xvi, 141}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Anthropogenic activities have transformed the Earth's environment, not only on local level, but on the planetary-scale causing global change. Besides industrialization, agriculture is a major driver of global change. This change in turn impairs the agriculture sector, reducing crop yields namely due to soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change. However, this is a more complex issue than it appears. Crop yields can be increased by use of agrochemicals and fertilizers which are mainly produced by fossil energy. This is important to meet the increasing food demand driven by global demographic change, which is further accelerated by changes in regional lifestyles. In this dissertation, we attempt to address this complex problem exploring agricultural potential globally but on a local scale. For this, we considered the influence of lifestyle changes (dietary patterns) as well as technological progress and their effects on climate change, mainly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, we examined options for optimizing crop yields in the current cultivated land with the current cropping patterns by closing yield gaps. Using this, we investigated in a five-minute resolution the extent to which food demand can be met locally, and/or by regional and/or global trade. Globally, food consumption habits are shifting towards calorie rich diets. Due to dietary shifts combined with population growth, the global food demand is expected to increase by 60-110\% between 2005 and 2050. Hence, one of the challenges to global sustainability is to meet the growing food demand, while at the same time, reducing agricultural inputs and environmental consequences. In order to address the above problem, we used several freely available datasets and applied multiple interconnected analytical approaches that include artificial neural network, scenario analysis, data aggregation and harmonization, downscaling algorithm, and cross-scale analysis. Globally, we identified sixteen dietary patterns between 1961 and 2007 with food intakes ranging from 1,870 to 3,400 kcal/cap/day. These dietary patterns also reflected changing dietary habits to meat rich diets worldwide. Due to the large share of animal products, very high calorie diets that are common in the developed world, exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day. This is higher than total per capita emissions of 1.4-4.5 kg CO2eq./day associated with low and moderate calorie diets that are common in developing countries. Currently, 40\% of the global crop calories are fed to livestock and the feed calorie use is four times the produced animal calories. However, these values vary from less than 1 kcal to greater 10 kcal around the world. On the local and national scale, we found that the local and national food production could meet demand of 1.9 and 4.4 billion people in 2000, respectively. However, 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require intercontinental agricultural trade to meet their food demand. Nevertheless, these regions can become food self-sufficient by closing yield gaps that require location specific inputs and agricultural management strategies. Such strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, soil and land improvement, management targeted on mitigating climate induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. However, closing yield gaps in particular requires global N-fertilizer application to increase by 45-73\%, P2O5 by 22-46\%, and K2O by 2-3 times compare to 2010. Considering population growth, we found that the global agricultural GHG emissions will approach 7 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050, while the global livestock feed demand will remain similar to 2000. This changes tremendously when diet shifts are also taken into account, resulting in GHG emissions of 20 Gt CO2eq./yr and an increase of 1.3 times in the crop-based feed demand between 2000 and 2050. However, when population growth, diet shifts, and technological progress by 2050 were considered, GHG emissions can be reduced to 14 Gt CO2eq./yr and the feed demand to nearly 1.8 times compare to that in 2000. Additionally, our findings shows that based on the progress made in closing yield gaps, the number of people depending on international trade can vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. In medium term, this requires additional fossil energy. Furthermore, climate change, affecting crop yields, will increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4\% to 16\%. In summary, three general conclusions are drawn from this dissertation. First, changing dietary patterns will significantly increase crop demand, agricultural GHG emissions, and international food trade in the future when compared to population growth only. Second, such increments can be reduced by technology transfer and technological progress that will enhance crop yields, decrease agricultural emission intensities, and increase livestock feed conversion efficiencies. Moreover, international trade dependency can be lowered by consuming local and regional food products, by producing diverse types of food, and by closing yield gaps. Third, location specific inputs and management options are required to close yield gaps. Sustainability of such inputs and management largely depends on which options are chosen and how they are implemented. However, while every cultivated land may not need to attain its potential yields to enable food security, closing yield gaps only may not be enough to achieve food self-sufficiency in some regions. Hence, a combination of sustainable implementations of agricultural intensification, expansion, and trade as well as shifting dietary habits towards a lower share of animal products is required to feed the growing population.}, language = {en} }