@article{ZoellerHolschneiderHainzletal.2014,
  author    = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Holschneider, Matthias and Hainzl, Sebastian and Zhuang, Jiancang},
  title     = {The largest expected earthquake magnitudes in Japan: The statistical perspective},
  series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America},
  volume    = {104},
  journal   = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America},
  number    = {2},
  publisher = {Seismological Society of America},
  address   = {Albany},
  issn      = {0037-1106},
  doi       = {10.1785/0120130103},
  pages     = {769 -- 779},
  year      = {2014},
  abstract  = {Earthquake catalogs are probably the most informative data source about spatiotemporal seismicity evolution. The catalog quality in one of the most active seismogenic zones in the world, Japan, is excellent, although changes in quality arising, for example, from an evolving network are clearly present. Here, we seek the best estimate for the largest expected earthquake in a given future time interval from a combination of historic and instrumental earthquake catalogs. We extend the technique introduced by Zoller et al. (2013) to estimate the maximum magnitude in a time window of length T-f for earthquake catalogs with varying level of completeness. In particular, we consider the case in which two types of catalogs are available: a historic catalog and an instrumental catalog. This leads to competing interests with respect to the estimation of the two parameters from the Gutenberg-Richter law, the b-value and the event rate lambda above a given lower-magnitude threshold (the a-value). The b-value is estimated most precisely from the frequently occurring small earthquakes; however, the tendency of small events to cluster in aftershocks, swarms, etc. violates the assumption of a Poisson process that is used for the estimation of lambda. We suggest addressing conflict by estimating b solely from instrumental seismicity and using large magnitude events from historic catalogs for the earthquake rate estimation. Applying the method to Japan, there is a probability of about 20\% that the maximum expected magnitude during any future time interval of length T-f = 30 years is m >= 9.0. Studies of different subregions in Japan indicates high probabilities for M 8 earthquakes along the Tohoku arc and relatively low probabilities in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai region. Finally, for scenarios related to long-time horizons and high-confidence levels, the maximum expected magnitude will be around 10.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{PirliHainzlSchweitzeretal.2018,
  author    = {Pirli, Myrto and Hainzl, Sebastian and Schweitzer, Johannes and K{\"o}hler, Andreas and Dahm, Torsten},
  title     = {Localised thickening and grounding of an Antarctic ice shelf from tidal triggering and sizing of cryoseismicity},
  series = {Earth \& planetary science letters},
  volume    = {503},
  journal   = {Earth \& planetary science letters},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0012-821X},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.epsl.2018.09.024},
  pages     = {78 -- 87},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {We observe remarkably periodic patterns of seismicity rates and magnitudes at the Fimbul Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, correlating with the cycles of the ocean tide. Our analysis covers 19 years of continuous seismic recordings from Antarctic broadband stations. Seismicity commences abruptly during austral summer 2011 at a location near the ocean front in a shallow water region. Dozens of highly repetitive events occur in semi-diurnal cycles, with magnitudes and rates fluctuating steadily with the tide. In contrast to the common unpredictability of earthquake magnitudes, the event magnitudes show deterministic trends within single cycles and strong correlations with spring tides and tide height. The events occur quasi-periodically and the highly constrained event sources migrate landwards during rising tide. We show that a simple, mechanical model can explain most of the observations. Our model assumes stick-slip motion on a patch of grounded ice shelf, which is forced by the variations of the ocean-tide height and ice flow. The well fitted observations give new insights into the general process of frictional triggering of earthquakes, while providing independent evidence of variations in ice shelf thickness and grounding.},
  language  = {en}
}