@article{ClarkShakunMarcottetal.2016,
  author    = {Clark, Peter U. and Shakun, Jeremy D. and Marcott, Shaun A. and Mix, Alan C. and Eby, Michael and Kulp, Scott and Levermann, Anders and Milne, Glenn A. and Pfister, Patrik L. and Santer, Benjamin D. and Schrag, Daniel P. and Solomon, Susan and Stocker, Thomas F. and Strauss, Benjamin H. and Weaver, Andrew J. and Winkelmann, Ricarda and Archer, David and Bard, Edouard and Goldner, Aaron and Lambeck, Kurt and Pierrehumbert, Raymond T. and Plattner, Gian-Kasper},
  title     = {Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change},
  series = {Nature climate change},
  volume    = {6},
  journal   = {Nature climate change},
  publisher = {Nature Publ. Group},
  address   = {London},
  issn      = {1758-678X},
  doi       = {10.1038/NCLIMATE2923},
  pages     = {360 -- 369},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {Most of the policy debate surrounding the actions needed to mitigate and adapt to anthropogenic climate change has been framed by observations of the past 150 years as well as climate and sea-level projections for the twenty-first century. The focus on this 250-year window, however, obscures some of the most profound problems associated with climate change. Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human-caused carbon emissions are likely to occur, need to be placed into a long-term context that includes the past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist. This long-term perspective illustrates that policy decisions made in the next few years to decades will have profound impacts on global climate, ecosystems and human societies - not just for this century, but for the next ten millennia and beyond.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{BornStockerRaibleetal.2013,
  author    = {Born, Andreas and Stocker, Thomas F. and Raible, Christoph C. and Levermann, Anders},
  title     = {Is the Atlantic subpolar gyre bistable in comprehensive coupled climate models?},
  series = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system},
  volume    = {40},
  journal   = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system},
  number    = {11-12},
  publisher = {Springer},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {0930-7575},
  doi       = {10.1007/s00382-012-1525-7},
  pages     = {2993 -- 3007},
  year      = {2013},
  abstract  = {The Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) is one of the main drivers of decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic. Here we analyze its dynamics in pre-industrial control simulations of 19 different comprehensive coupled climate models. The analysis is based on a recently proposed description of the SPG dynamics that found the circulation to be potentially bistable due to a positive feedback mechanism including salt transport and enhanced deep convection in the SPG center. We employ a statistical method to identify multiple equilibria in time series that are subject to strong noise and analyze composite fields to assess whether the bistability results from the hypothesized feedback mechanism. Because noise dominates the time series in most models, multiple circulation modes can unambiguously be detected in only six models. Four of these six models confirm that the intensification is caused by the positive feedback mechanism.},
  language  = {en}
}