@article{FerTietjenJeltschetal.2017,
  author    = {Fer, Istem and Tietjen, Britta and Jeltsch, Florian and Trauth, Martin H.},
  title     = {Modelling vegetation change during Late Cenozoic uplift of the East African plateaus},
  series = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  volume    = {467},
  journal   = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0031-0182},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2016.04.007},
  pages     = {120 -- 130},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {The present-day vegetation in the tropics is mainly characterized by forests worldwide except in tropical East Africa, where forests only occur as patches at the coast and in the uplands. These forest patches result from the peculiar aridity that is linked to the uplift of the region during the Late Cenozoic. The Late Cenozoic vegetation history of East Africa is of particular interest as it has set the scene for the contemporary events in mammal and hominin evolution. In this study, we investigate the conditions under which these forest patches could have been connected, and a previous continuous forest belt could have extended and fragmented. We apply a dynamic vegetation model with a set of climatic scenarios in which we systematically alter the present-day environmental conditions such that they would be more favourable for a continuous forest belt in tropical East Africa. We consider varying environmental factors, namely temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Our results show that all of these variables play a significant role in supporting the forest biomes and a continuous forest belt could have occurred under certain combinations of these settings. With our current knowledge of the palaeoenvironmental history of East Africa, it is likely that the region hosted these conditions during the Late Cenozoic. Recent improvements on environmental hypotheses of hominin evolution highlight the role of periods of short and extreme climate variability during the Late Cenozoic specific to East Africa in driving evolution. Our results elucidate how the forest biomes of East Africa can appear and disappear under fluctuating environmental conditions and demonstrate how this climate variability might be recognized on the biosphere level.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{FerTietjenJeltschetal.2017,
  author    = {Fer, Istem and Tietjen, Britta and Jeltsch, Florian and Wolff, Christian Michael},
  title     = {The influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario},
  series = {Biogeosciences},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Biogeosciences},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {G{\"o}ttingen},
  issn      = {1726-4170},
  doi       = {10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017},
  pages     = {4355 -- 4374},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{FerTietjenJeltsch2016,
  author    = {Fer, Istem and Tietjen, Britta and Jeltsch, Florian},
  title     = {High-resolution modelling closes the gap between data and model simulations for Mid-Holocene and present-day biomes of East Africa},
  series = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  volume    = {444},
  journal   = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {Amsterdam},
  issn      = {0031-0182},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.12.001},
  pages     = {144 -- 151},
  year      = {2016},
  abstract  = {East Africa hosts a striking diversity of terrestrial ecosystems, which vary both in space and time due to complex regional topography and a dynamic climate. The structure and functioning of these ecosystems under this environmental setting can be studied with dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) in a spatially explicit way. Yet, regional applications of DVMs to East Africa are rare and a comprehensive validation of such applications is missing. Here, we simulated the present-day and mid-Holocene vegetation of East Africa with the DVM, LPJ-GUESS and we conducted an exhaustive comparison of model outputs with maps of potential modern vegetation distribution, and with pollen records of local change through time. Overall, the model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of East African vegetation. To see whether running the model at higher spatial resolutions (10\&\#8242; × 10\&\#8242;) contribute to resolve the vegetation distribution better and have a better comparison scale with the observational data (i.e. pollen data), we run the model with coarser spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) for the present-day as well. Both the area- and point-wise comparison showed that a higher spatial resolution allows to better describe spatial vegetation changes induced by the complex topography of East Africa. Our analysis of the difference between modelled mid-Holocene and modern-day vegetation showed that whether a biome shifts to another is best explained by both the amount of change in precipitation it experiences and the amount of precipitation it received originally. We also confirmed that tropical forest biomes were more sensitive to a decrease in precipitation compared to woodland and savanna biomes and that Holocene vegetation changes in East Africa were driven not only by changes in annual precipitation but also by changes in its seasonality.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Fer2018,
  author    = {Fer, Istem},
  title     = {Modeling past, present and future climate induced vegetation changes in East Africa},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-42777},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-427777},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxii, 156},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {Ostafrika ist ein nat{\"u}rliches Labor: Durch ein Studium seiner einzigartigen geologischen und biologischen Geschichte lassen sich unsere Theorien und Modelle {\"u}berpr{\"u}fen und verbessern. Ein Studium seiner Gegenwart und seiner Zukunft wiederum hilft uns dabei, die global bedeutende Artenvielfalt und die {\"o}kosystemaren Dienstleistungen Ostafrikas zu sch{\"u}tzen. Eine zentrale Rolle spielt dabei spielt die ostafrikanische Vegetation, deren Dynamiken in dieser Dissertation durch Computersimulationen quantifiziert werden sollen. {\"U}ber Computersimulationen lassen sich fr{\"u}here Rahmenbedingungen reproduzieren, Voraussagen treffen oder Simulationsexperimente durchf{\"u}hren, die durch Feldforschung nicht m{\"o}glich w{\"a}ren. Zuallererst muss jedoch ihre Leistungsf{\"a}higkeit {\"u}berpr{\"u}ft werden. Die von dem Modell anhand der heutigen Inputs gelieferten Ergebnisse stimmten weitgehend mit heutigen Beobachtungen ostafrikanischer Vegetation {\"u}berein. Als n{\"a}chstes wurde die fr{\"u}here Vegetation simuliert, f{\"u}r die fossile Pollen-Daten zum Abgleich vorliegen. {\"U}ber Computermodelle lassen sich Wissensl{\"u}cken zwischen Standorten {\"u}berbr{\"u}cken, bei denen wir {\"u}ber fossile Pollen-Daten verf{\"u}gen, sodass ein vollst{\"a}ndigeres Bild der Vergangenheit entsteht. Zus{\"a}tzlich validiert wurde die Leistungsf{\"a}higkeit des Modells durch die hohe {\"U}bereinstimmung zwischen Modell und Pollen-Daten, wo sie im Raum {\"u}berlappen. Nachdem das Modell getestet und f{\"u}r die Region validiert war, konnte eine der seit langem offenen Fragen {\"u}ber die ostafrikanische Vegetation angegangen werden, n{\"a}mlich wie Ostafrika seines Tropenwaldes verlustig gehen konnte. In den Tropen wird die heutige Vegetation weltweit haupts{\"a}chlich von W{\"a}ldern dominiert, mit Ausnahme der Tropengebiete Ostafrikas, wo W{\"a}lder nur noch stellenweise an der K{\"u}ste und im Hochland vorkommen. Durch eine Reihe von Simulationsexperimenten konnte aufgezeigt werden, unter welchen Bedingungen jene Waldgebiete fr{\"u}her zusammenhingen und schließlich fragmentiert wurden. Die Studie hat erwiesen, wie empfindlich die ostafrikanische Vegetation f{\"u}r die Klimaschwankungen ist, die durch den k{\"u}nftigen Klimawandel zu erwarten sind. Weitere Auswirkungen auf das ostafrikanische Klima ergeben sich aus dem El Ni{\~n}o/Southern Oscillation-Ph{\"a}nomen (ENSO), das aus Temperaturfluktuationen zwischen dem Ozean und der Atmosph{\"a}re herr{\"u}hrt und k{\"u}nftig an Intensit{\"a}t zunehmen d{\"u}rfte. Die derzeitigen Klimamodelle sind allerdings noch nicht gut genug beim Erfassen solcher Ereignismuster. In einer Studie wurde der Einfluss des ENSO-Ph{\"a}nomens auf die ostafrikanische Vegetation quantifiziert und dabei aufgezeigt, wie sehr sich die k{\"u}nftige Vegetation von den heute simulierten Ergebnissen unterscheiden k{\"o}nnte, bei denen der genaue ENSO-Beitrag nicht ber{\"u}cksichtigt werden kann. Bei der Berechnung der k{\"u}nftigen weltweiten CO2-Bilanz und den zu treffenden Entscheidungen stellt dies einen zus{\"a}tzlichen Unsicherheitsfaktor dar.},
  language  = {en}
}
@misc{FerTietjenJeltschetal.2017,
  author    = {Fer, Istem and Tietjen, Britta and Jeltsch, Florian and Wolff, Christian Michael},
  title     = {The influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-403853},
  pages     = {20},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{FerTietjenJeltschetal.2017,
  author    = {Fer, Istem and Tietjen, Britta and Jeltsch, Florian and Wolff, Christian Michael},
  title     = {The influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario},
  series = {Biogeosciences},
  volume    = {14},
  journal   = {Biogeosciences},
  number    = {18},
  publisher = {Copernicus},
  address   = {Katlenburg-Lindau},
  issn      = {1726-4170},
  doi       = {10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017},
  pages     = {4355 -- 4374},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.},
  language  = {en}
}