@article{BaesSobolevQuinteros2018, author = {Baes, Marzieh and Sobolev, Stephan and Quinteros, Javier}, title = {Subduction initiation in mid-ocean induced by mantle suction flow}, series = {Geophysical journal international}, volume = {215}, journal = {Geophysical journal international}, number = {3}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0956-540X}, doi = {10.1093/gji/ggy335}, pages = {1515 -- 1522}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Pre-existing weakness zones in the lithosphere such as transform faults/fracture zones and extinct mid-oceanic ridges have been suggested to facilitate subduction initiation in an intra-oceanic environment. Here, we propose that the additional forcing coming from the mantle suction flow is required to trigger the conversion of a fracture zone/transform fault into a converging plate boundary. This suction flow can be induced either from the slab remnants of former converging plate boundaries or/and from slabs of neighbouring active subduction zones. Using 2-D coupled thermo-mechanical models, we show that a sufficiently strong mantle flow is able to convert a fracture zone/transform fault into a subduction zone. However, this process is feasible only if the fracture zone/transform fault is very close to the mid-oceanic ridge. Our numerical model results indicate that time of subduction initiation depends on the velocity, domain size and location of mantle suction flow and age of the oceanic plate.}, language = {en} } @article{TutuSteinbergerSobolevetal.2018, author = {Tutu, Anthony Osei and Steinberger, Bernhard and Sobolev, Stephan and Rogozhina, Irina and Popov, Anton A.}, title = {Effects of upper mantle heterogeneities on the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography}, series = {Solid earth}, volume = {9}, journal = {Solid earth}, number = {3}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1869-9510}, doi = {10.5194/se-9-649-2018}, pages = {649 -- 668}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The orientation and tectonic regime of the observed crustal/lithospheric stress field contribute to our knowledge of different deformation processes occurring within the Earth's crust and lithosphere. In this study, we analyze the influence of the thermal and density structure of the upper mantle on the lithospheric stress field and topography. We use a 3-D lithosphere-asthenosphere numerical model with power-law rheology, coupled to a spectral mantle flow code at 300 km depth. Our results are validated against the World Stress Map 2016 (WSM2016) and the observation-based residual topography. We derive the upper mantle thermal structure from either a heat flow model combined with a seafloor age model (TM1) or a global S-wave velocity model (TM2). We show that lateral density heterogeneities in the upper 300 km have a limited influence on the modeled horizontal stress field as opposed to the resulting dynamic topography that appears more sensitive to such heterogeneities. The modeled stress field directions, using only the mantle heterogeneities below 300 km, are not perturbed much when the effects of lithosphere and crust above 300 km are added. In contrast, modeled stress magnitudes and dynamic topography are to a greater extent controlled by the upper mantle density structure. After correction for the chemical depletion of continents, the TM2 model leads to a much better fit with the observed residual topography giving a good correlation of 0.51 in continents, but this correction leads to no significant improvement of the fit between the WSM2016 and the resulting lithosphere stresses. In continental regions with abundant heat flow data, TM1 results in relatively small angular misfits. For example, in western Europe the misfit between the modeled and observation-based stress is 18.3°. Our findings emphasize that the relative contributions coming from shallow and deep mantle dynamic forces are quite different for the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography.}, language = {en} } @article{ChenGuentherGrosseetal.2018, author = {Chen, Jie and G{\"u}nther, Frank and Grosse, Guido and Liu, Lin and Lin, Hui}, title = {Sentinel-1 InSAR Measurements of Elevation Changes over Yedoma Uplands on Sobo-Sise Island, Lena Delta}, series = {Remote sensing}, volume = {10}, journal = {Remote sensing}, number = {7}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2072-4292}, doi = {10.3390/rs10071152}, pages = {16}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Yedoma-extremely ice-rich permafrost with massive ice wedges formed during the Late Pleistocene-is vulnerable to thawing and degradation under climate warming. Thawing of ice-rich Yedoma results in lowering of surface elevations. Quantitative knowledge about surface elevation changes helps us to understand the freeze-thaw processes of the active layer and the potential degradation of Yedoma deposits. In this study, we use C-band Sentinel-1 InSAR measurements to map the elevation changes over ice-rich Yedoma uplands on Sobo-Sise Island, Lena Delta with frequent revisit observations (as short as six or 12 days). We observe significant seasonal thaw subsidence during summer months and heterogeneous inter-annual elevation changes from 2016-17. We also observe interesting patterns of stronger seasonal thaw subsidence on elevated flat Yedoma uplands by comparing to the surrounding Yedoma slopes. Inter-annual analyses from 2016-17 suggest that our observed positive surface elevation changes are likely caused by the delayed progression of the thaw season in 2017, associated with mean annual air temperature fluctuations.}, language = {en} } @article{DahmHeimannFunkeetal.2018, author = {Dahm, Torsten and Heimann, Sebastian and Funke, Sigward and Wendt, Siegfried and Rappsilber, Ivo and Bindi, Dino and Plenefisch, Thomas and Cotton, Fabrice}, title = {Seismicity in the block mountains between Halle and Leipzig, Central Germany}, series = {Journal of seismology}, volume = {22}, journal = {Journal of seismology}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1383-4649}, doi = {10.1007/s10950-018-9746-9}, pages = {985 -- 1003}, year = {2018}, abstract = {On April 29, 2017 at 0:56 UTC (2:56 local time), an M (W) = 2.8 earthquake struck the metropolitan area between Leipzig and Halle, Germany, near the small town of Markranstadt. The earthquake was felt within 50 km from the epicenter and reached a local intensity of I (0) = IV. Already in 2015 and only 15 km northwest of the epicenter, a M (W) = 3.2 earthquake struck the area with a similar large felt radius and I (0) = IV. More than 1.1 million people live in the region, and the unusual occurrence of the two earthquakes led to public attention, because the tectonic activity is unclear and induced earthquakes have occurred in neighboring regions. Historical earthquakes south of Leipzig had estimated magnitudes up to M (W) ae 5 and coincide with NW-SE striking crustal basement faults. We use different seismological methods to analyze the two recent earthquakes and discuss them in the context of the known tectonic structures and historical seismicity. Novel stochastic full waveform simulation and inversion approaches are adapted for the application to weak, local earthquakes, to analyze mechanisms and ground motions and their relation to observed intensities. We find NW-SE striking normal faulting mechanisms for both earthquakes and centroid depths of 26 and 29 km. The earthquakes are located where faults with large vertical offsets of several hundred meters and Hercynian strike have developed since the Mesozoic. We use a stochastic full waveform simulation to explain the local peak ground velocities and calibrate the method to simulate intensities. Since the area is densely populated and has sensitive infrastructure, we simulate scenarios assuming that a 12-km long fault segment between the two recent earthquakes is ruptured and study the impact of rupture parameters on ground motions and expected damage.}, language = {en} } @article{GrigoliCescaRinaldietal.2018, author = {Grigoli, Francesco and Cesca, Simone and Rinaldi, Antonio Pio and Manconi, Andrea and Lopez-Comino, Jos{\´e} {\´A}ngel and Clinton, John F. and Westaway, Rob and Cauzzi, Carlo and Dahm, Torsten and Wiemer, Stefan}, title = {The November 2017 M-w 5.5 Pohang earthquake}, series = {Science}, volume = {360}, journal = {Science}, number = {6392}, publisher = {American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0036-8075}, doi = {10.1126/science.aat2010}, pages = {1003 -- 1006}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The moment magnitude (M-w) 5.5 earthquake that struck South Korea in November 2017 was one of the largest and most damaging events in that country over the past century. Its proximity to an enhanced geothermal system site, where high-pressure hydraulic injection had been performed during the previous 2 years, raises the possibility that this earthquake was anthropogenic. We have combined seismological and geodetic analyses to characterize the mainshock and its largest aftershocks, constrain the geometry of this seismic sequence, and shed light on its causal factors. According to our analysis, it seems plausible that the occurrence of this earthquake was influenced by the aforementioned industrial activities. Finally, we found that the earthquake transferred static stress to larger nearby faults, potentially increasing the seismic hazard in the area.}, language = {en} } @article{NitzeGrosseJonesetal.2018, author = {Nitze, Ingmar and Grosse, Guido and Jones, Benjamin M. and Romanovsky, Vladimir E. and Boike, Julia}, title = {Remote sensing quantifies widespread abundance of permafrost region disturbances across the Arctic and Subarctic}, series = {Nature Communications}, volume = {9}, journal = {Nature Communications}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2041-1723}, doi = {10.1038/s41467-018-07663-3}, pages = {11}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Local observations indicate that climate change and shifting disturbance regimes are causing permafrost degradation. However, the occurrence and distribution of permafrost region disturbances (PRDs) remain poorly resolved across the Arctic and Subarctic. Here we quantify the abundance and distribution of three primary PRDs using time-series analysis of 30-m resolution Landsat imagery from 1999 to 2014. Our dataset spans four continental-scale transects in North America and Eurasia, covering similar to 10\% of the permafrost region. Lake area loss (-1.45\%) dominated the study domain with enhanced losses occurring at the boundary between discontinuous and continuous permafrost regions. Fires were the most extensive PRD across boreal regions (6.59\%), but in tundra regions (0.63\%) limited to Alaska. Retrogressive thaw slumps were abundant but highly localized (< 10(-5)\%). Our analysis synergizes the global-scale importance of PRDs. The findings highlight the need to include PRDs in next-generation land surface models to project the permafrost carbon feedback.}, language = {en} } @article{JongejansStraussLenzetal.2018, author = {Jongejans, Loeka Laura and Strauss, Jens and Lenz, Josefine and Peterse, Francien and Mangelsdorf, Kai and Fuchs, Matthias and Grosse, Guido}, title = {Organic matter characteristics in yedoma and thermokarst deposits on Baldwin Peninsula, west Alaska}, series = {Biogeosciences}, volume = {15}, journal = {Biogeosciences}, number = {20}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1726-4170}, doi = {10.5194/bg-15-6033-2018}, pages = {6033 -- 6048}, year = {2018}, abstract = {As Arctic warming continues and permafrost thaws, more soil and sedimentary organic matter (OM) will be decomposed in northern high latitudes. Still, uncertainties remain in the quality of the OM and the size of the organic carbon (OC) pools stored in different deposit types of permafrost landscapes. This study presents OM data from deep permafrost and lake deposits on the Baldwin Peninsula which is located in the southern portion of the continuous permafrost zone in west Alaska. Sediment samples from yedoma and drained thermokarst lake basin (DTLB) deposits as well as thermokarst lake sediments were analyzed for cryostratigraphical and biogeochemical parameters and their lipid biomarker composition to identify the below-ground OC pool size and OM quality of ice-rich permafrost on the Baldwin Peninsula. We provide the first detailed characterization of yedoma deposits on Baldwin Peninsula. We show that three-quarters of soil OC in the frozen deposits of the study region (total of 68 Mt) is stored in DTLB deposits (52 Mt) and one-quarter in the frozen yedoma deposits (16 Mt). The lake sediments contain a relatively small OC pool (4 Mt), but have the highest volumetric OC content (93 kgm(-3)) compared to the DTLB (35 kgm(-3)) and yedoma deposits (8 kgm(-3)), largely due to differences in the ground ice content. The biomarker analysis indicates that the OM in both yedoma and DTLB deposits is mainly of terrestrial origin. Nevertheless, the relatively high carbon preference index of plant leaf waxes in combination with a lack of a degradation trend with depth in the yedoma deposits indi-cates that OM stored in yedoma is less degraded than that stored in DTLB deposits. This suggests that OM in yedoma has a higher potential for decomposition upon thaw, despite the relatively small size of this pool. These findings show that the use of lipid biomarker analysis is valuable in the assessment of the potential future greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost, especially because this area, close to the discontinuous permafrost boundary, is projected to thaw substantially within the 21st century.}, language = {en} } @article{LaraNitzeGrosseetal.2018, author = {Lara, Mark J. and Nitze, Ingmar and Große, Guido and McGuire, A. David}, title = {Tundra landform and vegetation productivity trend maps for the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska}, series = {Scientific Data}, volume = {5}, journal = {Scientific Data}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2052-4463}, doi = {10.1038/sdata.2018.58}, pages = {10}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10-100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial data products describing local to regional scale distribution of patterned ground or polygonal tundra geomorphology are largely unavailable. Thus, our understanding of local impacts on regional scale processes (e.g., carbon dynamics) may be limited. We produced two key spatiotemporal datasets spanning the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (similar to 60,000 km(2)) to evaluate climate-geomorphological controls on arctic tundra productivity change, using (1) a novel 30m classification of polygonal tundra geomorphology and (2) decadal-trends in surface greenness using the Landsat archive (1999-2014). These datasets can be easily integrated and adapted in an array of local to regional applications such as (1) upscaling plot-level measurements (e.g., carbon/energy fluxes), (2) mapping of soils, vegetation, or permafrost, and/or (3) initializing ecosystem biogeochemistry, hydrology, and/or habitat modeling.}, language = {en} } @article{IrrgangLantuitMansonetal.2018, author = {Irrgang, Anna Maria and Lantuit, Hugues and Manson, Gavin K. and G{\"u}nther, Frank and Grosse, Guido and Overduin, Pier Paul}, title = {Variability in rates of coastal change along the Yukon Coast, 1951 to 2015}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface}, volume = {123}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface}, number = {4}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9003}, doi = {10.1002/2017JF004326}, pages = {779 -- 800}, year = {2018}, abstract = {To better understand the reaction of Arctic coasts to increasing environmental pressure, coastal changes along a 210-km length of the Yukon Territory coast in north-west Canada were investigated. Shoreline positions were acquired from aerial and satellite images between 1951 and 2011. Shoreline change rates were calculated for multiple time periods along the entire coast and at six key sites. Additionally, Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) measurements of shoreline positions from seven field sites were used to analyze coastal dynamics from 1991 to 2015 at higher spatial resolution. The whole coast has a consistent, spatially averaged mean rate of shoreline change of 0.7 +/- 0.2 m/a with a general trend of decreasing erosion from west to east. Additional data from six key sites shows that the mean shoreline change rate decreased from -1.3 +/- 0.8 (1950s-1970s) to -0.5 +/- 0.6 m/a (1970s-1990s). This was followed by a significant increase in shoreline change to -1.3 +/- 0.3 m/a in the 1990s to 2011. This increase is confirmed by DGPS measurements that indicate increased erosion rates at local rates up to -8.9 m/a since 2006. Ground surveys and observations with remote sensing data indicate that the current rate of shoreline retreat along some parts of the Yukon coast is higher than at any time before in the 64-year-long observation record. Enhanced availability of material in turn might favor the buildup of gravel features, which have been growing in extent throughout the last six decades. Plain Language Summary The Arctic is warming, but the impacts on its coasts are not well documented. To better understand the reaction of Arctic coasts to increasing environmental pressure, shoreline position changes along a 210-km length of the Yukon Territory coast in northwest Canada were investigated for the time period from 1951 to 2015. Shoreline positions were extracted from historical aerial images from the 1950s, 1970s, and 1990s and from satellite images from 2011. Additionally, measurements of shoreline positions from field sites were used to analyze coastal dynamics from 1991 to 2015. The mean shoreline change rate was -1.3 m/a between the 1950s and 1970s and followed by a decrease to -0.5 m/a between the 1970s to 1990s. This was followed by a significant increase in mean shoreline change rates again to -1.3 m/a in the 1990s to 2011 time period. This acceleration in erosion is confirmed by field measurements that indicate increased erosion rates at high local rates up to -8.9 m/a since 2006. Enhanced coastal erosion might, in turn, favor the buildup of gravel features, which have been growing in extent throughout the last six decades.}, language = {en} } @article{ZwiebackKokeljGuentheretal.2018, author = {Zwieback, Simon and Kokelj, Steven V. and G{\"u}nther, Frank and Boike, Julia and Grosse, Guido and Hajnsek, Irena}, title = {Sub-seasonal thaw slump mass wasting is not consistently energy limited at the landscape scale}, series = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {12}, journal = {The Cryosphere : TC ; an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1994-0416}, doi = {10.5194/tc-12-549-2018}, pages = {549 -- 564}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of timescales. On sub-seasonal timescales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellites. The estimated elevation changes at 12m resolution complement the commonly observed planimetric retreat rates by providing information on volume losses. Their high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km(2)) allow us to track mass wasting as drivers such as the available energy change during the summer of 2015 in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm day 1) despite the ample available energy, suggesting the widespread presence of early season insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm day 1), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the headwall height. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupRoessneretal.2018, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and Roessner, Sigrid and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Detecting Himalayan glacial lake outburst floods from Landsat time series}, series = {Remote sensing of environment : an interdisciplinary journal}, volume = {207}, journal = {Remote sensing of environment : an interdisciplinary journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {New York}, issn = {0034-4257}, doi = {10.1016/j.rse.2017.12.025}, pages = {84 -- 97}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Several thousands of moraine-dammed and supraglacial lakes spread over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, and some have grown rapidly in past decades due to glacier retreat. The sudden emptying of these lakes releases large volumes of water and sediment in destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), one of the most publicised natural hazards to the rapidly growing Himalayan population. Despite the growing number and size of glacial lakes, the frequency of documented GLOFs is remarkably constant. We explore this possible reporting bias and offer a new processing chain for establishing a more complete Himalayan GLOF inventory. We make use of the full seasonal archive of Landsat images between 1988 and 2016, and track automatically where GLOFs left shrinking water bodies, and tails of sediment at high elevations. We trained a Random Forest classifier to generate fuzzy land cover maps for 2491 images, achieving overall accuracies of 91\%. We developed a likelihood-based change point technique to estimate the timing of GLOFs at the pixel scale. Our method objectively detected ten out of eleven documented GLOFs, and another ten lakes that gave rise to previously unreported GLOFs. We thus nearly doubled the existing GLOF record for a study area covering similar to 10\% of the HKH region. Remaining challenges for automatically detecting GLOFs include image insufficiently accurate co-registration, misclassifications in the land cover maps and image noise from clouds, shadows or ice. Yet our processing chain is robust and has the potential for being applied on the greater HKH and mountain ranges elsewhere, opening the door for objectively expanding the knowledge base on GLOF activity over the past three decades.}, language = {en} } @article{MardoukhiJeonChechkinetal.2018, author = {Mardoukhi, Yousof and Jeon, Jae-Hyung and Chechkin, Aleksei and Metzler, Ralf}, title = {Fluctuations of random walks in critical random environments}, series = {Physical chemistry, chemical physics : a journal of European Chemical Societies}, volume = {20}, journal = {Physical chemistry, chemical physics : a journal of European Chemical Societies}, number = {31}, publisher = {Royal Society of Chemistry}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {1463-9076}, doi = {10.1039/c8cp03212b}, pages = {20427 -- 20438}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Percolation networks have been widely used in the description of porous media but are now found to be relevant to understand the motion of particles in cellular membranes or the nucleus of biological cells. Random walks on the infinite cluster at criticality of a percolation network are asymptotically ergodic. On any finite size cluster of the network stationarity is reached at finite times, depending on the cluster's size. Despite of this we here demonstrate by combination of analytical calculations and simulations that at criticality the disorder and cluster size average of the ensemble of clusters leads to a non-vanishing variance of the time averaged mean squared displacement, regardless of the measurement time. Fluctuations of this relevant experimental quantity due to the disorder average of such ensembles are thus persistent and non-negligible. The relevance of our results for single particle tracking analysis in complex and biological systems is discussed.}, language = {en} } @article{HouCherstvyMetzleretal.2018, author = {Hou, Ru and Cherstvy, Andrey G. and Metzler, Ralf and Akimoto, Takuma}, title = {Biased continuous-time random walks for ordinary and equilibrium cases}, series = {Physical chemistry, chemical physics : a journal of European Chemical Societies}, volume = {20}, journal = {Physical chemistry, chemical physics : a journal of European Chemical Societies}, number = {32}, publisher = {Royal Society of Chemistry}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {1463-9076}, doi = {10.1039/c8cp01863d}, pages = {20827 -- 20848}, year = {2018}, abstract = {We examine renewal processes with power-law waiting time distributions (WTDs) and non-zero drift via computing analytically and by computer simulations their ensemble and time averaged spreading characteristics. All possible values of the scaling exponent alpha are considered for the WTD psi(t) similar to 1/t(1+alpha). We treat continuous-time random walks (CTRWs) with 0 < alpha < 1 for which the mean waiting time diverges, and investigate the behaviour of the process for both ordinary and equilibrium CTRWs for 1 < alpha < 2 and alpha > 2. We demonstrate that in the presence of a drift CTRWs with alpha < 1 are ageing and non-ergodic in the sense of the non-equivalence of their ensemble and time averaged displacement characteristics in the limit of lag times much shorter than the trajectory length. In the sense of the equivalence of ensemble and time averages, CTRW processes with 1 < alpha < 2 are ergodic for the equilibrium and non-ergodic for the ordinary situation. Lastly, CTRW renewal processes with alpha > 2-both for the equilibrium and ordinary situation-are always ergodic. For the situations 1 < alpha < 2 and alpha > 2 the variance of the diffusion process, however, depends on the initial ensemble. For biased CTRWs with alpha > 1 we also investigate the behaviour of the ergodicity breaking parameter. In addition, we demonstrate that for biased CTRWs the Einstein relation is valid on the level of the ensemble and time averaged displacements, in the entire range of the WTD exponent alpha.}, language = {en} } @article{OzturkMarwanKorupetal.2018, author = {Ozturk, Ugur and Marwan, Norbert and Korup, Oliver and Saito, H. and Agarwa, Ankit and Grossman, M. J. and Zaiki, M. and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Complex networks for tracking extreme rainfall during typhoons}, series = {Chaos : an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science}, volume = {28}, journal = {Chaos : an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science}, number = {7}, publisher = {American Institute of Physics}, address = {Melville}, issn = {1054-1500}, doi = {10.1063/1.5004480}, pages = {8}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Reconciling the paths of extreme rainfall with those of typhoons remains difficult despite advanced forecasting techniques. We use complex networks defined by a nonlinear synchronization measure termed event synchronization to track extreme rainfall over the Japanese islands. Directed networks objectively record patterns of heavy rain brought by frontal storms and typhoons but mask out contributions of local convective storms. We propose a radial rank method to show that paths of extreme rainfall in the typhoon season (August-November, ASON) follow the overall southwest-northeast motion of typhoons and mean rainfall gradient of Japan. The associated eye-of-the-typhoon tracks deviate notably and may thus distort estimates of heavy typhoon rainfall. We mainly found that the lower spread of rainfall tracks in ASON may enable better hindcasting than for westerly-fed frontal storms in June and July.}, language = {en} } @article{DybiecCapalaChechkinetal.2018, author = {Dybiec, Bartlomiej and Capala, Karol and Chechkin, Aleksei and Metzler, Ralf}, title = {Conservative random walks in confining potentials}, series = {Journal of physics : A, Mathematical and theoretical}, volume = {52}, journal = {Journal of physics : A, Mathematical and theoretical}, number = {1}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1751-8113}, doi = {10.1088/1751-8121/aaefc2}, pages = {25}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Levy walks are continuous time random walks with spatio-temporal coupling of jump lengths and waiting times, often used to model superdiffusive spreading processes such as animals searching for food, tracer motion in weakly chaotic systems, or even the dynamics in quantum systems such as cold atoms. In the simplest version Levy walks move with a finite speed. Here, we present an extension of the Levy walk scenario for the case when external force fields influence the motion. The resulting motion is a combination of the response to the deterministic force acting on the particle, changing its velocity according to the principle of total energy conservation, and random velocity reversals governed by the distribution of waiting times. For the fact that the motion stays conservative, that is, on a constant energy surface, our scenario is fundamentally different from thermal motion in the same external potentials. In particular, we present results for the velocity and position distributions for single well potentials of different steepness. The observed dynamics with its continuous velocity changes enriches the theory of Levy walk processes and will be of use in a variety of systems, for which the particles are externally confined.}, language = {en} } @article{DossetoMayChoietal.2018, author = {Dosseto, Anthony and May, Jan-Hendrik and Choi, Jeong-Heon and Swander, Zachary J. and Fink, David and Korup, Oliver and Hesse, Paul and Singh, Tejpal and Mifsud, Charles and Srivastava, Pradeep}, title = {Late quaternary fluvial incision and aggradation in the Lesser Himalaya, India}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {197}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.07.035}, pages = {112 -- 128}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Reconstructing how rivers respond to changes in runoff or sediment supply by incising or aggrading has been pivotal in gauging the role of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) as a geomorphic driver in the Himalayas. Here we present new chronological data for fluvial aggradation and incision from the Donga alluvial fan and the upper Alaknanda River, as well as a compilation of previous work. In addition to conventional OSL-SAR (Single-Aliquot Regenerative-Dose) dating method, we have tested and applied pulsed OSL (POSL) dating for quartz samples that include K-rich feldspar inclusions, which is expected to improve the applicability and validity of OSL ages in the Lesser Himalaya. For previously dated deposits, our OSL ages are shown to be systematically older than previously reported ages. These results suggest periods of aggradation in the Alaknanda and Dehradun Valleys mainly between similar to 25 and 35 ka. This most likely reflects decreased stream power during periods of weakened monsoon. In addition, in-situ cosmogenic beryllium-10 was used to infer bedrock surface exposure ages, which are interpreted as episodes of active fluvial erosion. Resulting exposure ages span from 3 to 6 ka, suggesting that strath terraces were exposed relatively recently, and incision was dominant through most of the Holocene. In combination, our results support precipitation-driven fluvial dynamics, which regulates the balance between stream power and sediment supply. On a larger spatial scale, however, fluvial dynamics are probably not spatially homogeneous as aggradation could have been taking place in adjacent catchments while incision dominated in the study area. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{AgarwalMaheswaranMarwanetal.2018, author = {Agarwal, Ankit and Maheswaran, Rathinasamy and Marwan, Norbert and Caesar, Levke and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Wavelet-based multiscale similarity measure for complex networks}, series = {The European physical journal : B, Condensed matter and complex systems}, volume = {91}, journal = {The European physical journal : B, Condensed matter and complex systems}, number = {11}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {1434-6028}, doi = {10.1140/epjb/e2018-90460-6}, pages = {12}, year = {2018}, abstract = {In recent years, complex network analysis facilitated the identification of universal and unexpected patterns in complex climate systems. However, the analysis and representation of a multiscale complex relationship that exists in the global climate system are limited. A logical first step in addressing this issue is to construct multiple networks over different timescales. Therefore, we propose to apply the wavelet multiscale correlation (WMC) similarity measure, which is a combination of two state-of-the-art methods, viz. wavelet and Pearson's correlation, for investigating multiscale processes through complex networks. Firstly we decompose the data over different timescales using the wavelet approach and subsequently construct a corresponding network by Pearson's correlation. The proposed approach is illustrated and tested on two synthetics and one real-world example. The first synthetic case study shows the efficacy of the proposed approach to unravel scale-specific connections, which are often undiscovered at a single scale. The second synthetic case study illustrates that by dividing and constructing a separate network for each time window we can detect significant changes in the signal structure. The real-world example investigates the behavior of the global sea surface temperature (SST) network at different timescales. Intriguingly, we notice that spatial dependent structure in SST evolves temporally. Overall, the proposed measure has an immense potential to provide essential insights on understanding and extending complex multivariate process studies at multiple scales.}, language = {en} } @article{BacskaiAtkari2018, author = {Bacskai-Atkari, Julia}, title = {Marking Finiteness and Low Peripheries}, series = {Boundaries Crossed, at the Interfaces of Morphosyntax, Phonology, Pragmatics and Semantics}, volume = {94}, journal = {Boundaries Crossed, at the Interfaces of Morphosyntax, Phonology, Pragmatics and Semantics}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Cham}, isbn = {978-3-319-90710-9}, issn = {0924-4670}, doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-90710-9_12}, pages = {183 -- 198}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The article takes up on the observations made byKenesei (1994) regarding the position of the Hungarian interrogative marker -e in the clause and its distribution across clause types. Specifically, there are three crucial points: (i) the marker -e is related to the CP-domain, where clause typing is encoded; (ii) -e is obligatory in embedded clauses and optional in main clauses; (iii) -e is licensed in finite clauses only. I argue that certain clause-typing properties are reflected in the Hungarian clause in a lower functional domain, FP. In particular, finiteness and the interrogative nature of the clause are encoded here, as also indicated by focussing in non-interrogative clauses and by constituent questions, respectively. The marker -e is base-generated in the F head, as opposed to a designated FocP or TP/IP, allowing it to fulfil its clause-typing functions. Base-generation is crucial (as opposed to lowering from C) since it is able to capture the relatedness between -e and finiteness: -e is specified as [fin] and while the FP may be generated to host focussed constituents (including wh-elements) in non-finite clauses, a lexically [fin] head cannot be inserted.}, language = {en} } @article{OeztuerkMarwanvonSpechtetal.2018, author = {{\"O}zt{\"u}rk, Ugur and Marwan, Norbert and von Specht, Sebastian and Korup, Oliver and Jensen, J.}, title = {A new centennial sea-level record for Antalya, Eastern Mediterranean}, series = {Journal of geophysical research-oceans}, volume = {123}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research-oceans}, number = {7}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9275}, doi = {10.1029/2018JC013906}, pages = {4503 -- 4517}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Quantitative estimates of sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Basin become increasingly accurate thanks to detailed satellite monitoring. However, such measuring campaigns cover several years to decades, while longer-term sea-level records are rare for the Mediterranean. We used a data archeological approach to reanalyze monthly mean sea-level data of the Antalya-I (1935-1977) tide gauge to fill this gap. We checked the accuracy and reliability of these data before merging them with the more recent records of the Antalya-II (1985-2009) tide gauge, accounting for an eight-year hiatus. We obtain a composite time series of monthly and annual mean sea levels spanning some 75 years, providing the longest record for the eastern Mediterranean Basin, and thus an essential tool for studying the region's recent sea-level trends. We estimate a relative mean sea-level rise of 2.2 ± 0.5 mm/year between 1935 and 2008, with an annual variability (expressed here as the standard deviation of the residuals, σresiduals = 41.4 mm) above that at the closest tide gauges (e.g., Thessaloniki, Greece, σresiduals = 29.0 mm). Relative sea-level rise accelerated to 6.0 ± 1.5 mm/year at Antalya-II; we attribute roughly half of this rate (~3.6 mm/year) to tectonic crustal motion and anthropogenic land subsidence. Our study highlights the value of data archeology for recovering and integrating historic tide gauge data for long-term sea-level and climate studies.}, language = {en} } @article{AgarwalMarwanMaheswaranetal.2018, author = {Agarwal, Ankit and Marwan, Norbert and Maheswaran, Rathinasamy and Merz, Bruno and Kurths, J{\"u}rgen}, title = {Quantifying the roles of single stations within homogeneous regions using complex network analysis}, series = {Journal of hydrology}, volume = {563}, journal = {Journal of hydrology}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0022-1694}, doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.06.050}, pages = {802 -- 810}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Regionalization and pooling stations to form homogeneous regions or communities are essential for reliable parameter transfer, prediction in ungauged basins, and estimation of missing information. Over the years, several clustering methods have been proposed for regional analysis. Most of these methods are able to quantify the study region in terms of homogeneity but fail to provide microscopic information about the interaction between communities, as well as about each station within the communities. We propose a complex network-based approach to extract this valuable information and demonstrate the potential of our approach using a rainfall network constructed from the Indian gridded daily precipitation data. The communities were identified using the network-theoretical community detection algorithm for maximizing the modularity. Further, the grid points (nodes) were classified into universal roles according to their pattern of within- and between-community connections. The method thus yields zoomed-in details of individual rainfall grids within each community.}, language = {en} }