@article{MartinezGarvonBohnhoffMencinetal.2019, author = {Martinez-Garvon, Patricia and Bohnhoff, Marco and Mencin, David and Kwiatek, Grzegorz and Dresen, Georg and Hodgkinson, Kathleen and Nurlu, Murat and Kadirioglu, Filiz Tuba and Kartal, Recai Feyiz}, title = {Slow strain release along the eastern Marmara region offshore Istanbul in conjunction with enhanced local seismic moment release}, series = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, volume = {510}, journal = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0012-821X}, doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2019.01.001}, pages = {209 -- 218}, year = {2019}, abstract = {We analyze a large transient strainmeter signal recorded at 62.5 m depth along the southern shore of the eastern Sea of Marmara region in northwestern Turkey. This region represents a passage of stress transfer from the Izmit rupture to the Marmara seismic gap. The strain signal was recorded at the Esenkoy site by one of the ICDP-GONAF (International Continental Drilling Programme - Geophysical Observatory at the North Anatolian Fault) strainmeters on the Armutlu peninsula with a maximum amplitude of 5 microstrain and lasting about 50 days. The onset of the strain signal coincided with the origin time of a M-w 4.4 earthquake offshore Yalova, which occurred as part of a seismic sequence including eight M-w >= 3.5 earthquakes. The Mw 4.4 event occurred at a distance of about 30 km from Esenkoy on June 25th 2016 representing the largest earthquake in this region since 2008. Before the event, the maximum horizontal strain was subparallel to the regional maximum horizontal stress derived from stress inversion of local seismicity. During the strain transient, we observe a clockwise rotation in the local horizontal strain field of about 20 degrees. The strain signal does not correlate with known environmental parameters such as annual changes of sea level, rainfall or temperature. The strain signal could indicate local slow slip on the Cinarcik fault and thus a transfer of stress to the eastern Marmara seismic gap.}, language = {en} } @article{DahmCescaHainzletal.2015, author = {Dahm, Torsten and Cesca, Simone and Hainzl, Sebastian and Braun, Thomas and Kr{\"u}ger, Frank}, title = {Discrimination between induced, triggered, and natural earthquakes close to hydrocarbon reservoirs: A probabilistic approach based on the modeling of depletion-induced stress changes and seismological source parameters}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, volume = {120}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, number = {4}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9313}, doi = {10.1002/2014JB011778}, pages = {2491 -- 2509}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Earthquakes occurring close to hydrocarbon fields under production are often under critical view of being induced or triggered. However, clear and testable rules to discriminate the different events have rarely been developed and tested. The unresolved scientific problem may lead to lengthy public disputes with unpredictable impact on the local acceptance of the exploitation and field operations. We propose a quantitative approach to discriminate induced, triggered, and natural earthquakes, which is based on testable input parameters. Maxima of occurrence probabilities are compared for the cases under question, and a single probability of being triggered or induced is reported. The uncertainties of earthquake location and other input parameters are considered in terms of the integration over probability density functions. The probability that events have been human triggered/induced is derived from the modeling of Coulomb stress changes and a rate and state-dependent seismicity model. In our case a 3-D boundary element method has been adapted for the nuclei of strain approach to estimate the stress changes outside the reservoir, which are related to pore pressure changes in the field formation. The predicted rate of natural earthquakes is either derived from the background seismicity or, in case of rare events, from an estimate of the tectonic stress rate. Instrumentally derived seismological information on the event location, source mechanism, and the size of the rupture plane is of advantage for the method. If the rupture plane has been estimated, the discrimination between induced or only triggered events is theoretically possible if probability functions are convolved with a rupture fault filter. We apply the approach to three recent main shock events: (1) the M-w 4.3 Ekofisk 2001, North Sea, earthquake close to the Ekofisk oil field; (2) the M-w 4.4 Rotenburg 2004, Northern Germany, earthquake in the vicinity of the Sohlingen gas field; and (3) the M-w 6.1 Emilia 2012, Northern Italy, earthquake in the vicinity of a hydrocarbon reservoir. The three test cases cover the complete range of possible causes: clearly human induced, not even human triggered, and a third case in between both extremes.}, language = {en} } @article{Zoeller2018, author = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert}, title = {A statistical model for earthquake recurrence based on the assimilation of paleoseismicity, historic seismicity, and instrumental seismicity}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, volume = {123}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth}, number = {6}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9313}, doi = {10.1029/2017JB015099}, pages = {4906 -- 4921}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Paleoearthquakes and historic earthquakes are the most important source of information for the estimation of long-term earthquake recurrence intervals in fault zones, because corresponding sequences cover more than one seismic cycle. However, these events are often rare, dating uncertainties are enormous, and missing or misinterpreted events lead to additional problems. In the present study, I assume that the time to the next major earthquake depends on the rate of small and intermediate events between the large ones in terms of a clock change model. Mathematically, this leads to a Brownian passage time distribution for recurrence intervals. I take advantage of an earlier finding that under certain assumptions the aperiodicity of this distribution can be related to the Gutenberg-Richter b value, which can be estimated easily from instrumental seismicity in the region under consideration. In this way, both parameters of the Brownian passage time distribution can be attributed with accessible seismological quantities. This allows to reduce the uncertainties in the estimation of the mean recurrence interval, especially for short paleoearthquake sequences and high dating errors. Using a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation results in a statistical model for earthquake recurrence intervals that assimilates in a simple way paleoearthquake sequences and instrumental data. I present illustrative case studies from Southern California and compare the method with the commonly used approach of exponentially distributed recurrence times based on a stationary Poisson process.}, language = {en} }