@article{GomezZapataZafrirPittoreetal.2022, author = {Gomez Zapata, Juan Camilo and Zafrir, Raquel and Pittore, Massimiliano and Merino, Yvonne}, title = {Towards a sensitivity analysis in seismic risk with probabilistic building exposure models}, series = {ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information}, volume = {11}, journal = {ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information}, number = {2}, publisher = {MDPI}, address = {Basel}, issn = {2220-9964}, doi = {10.3390/ijgi11020113}, pages = {38}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Efforts have been made in the past to enhance building exposure models on a regional scale with increasing spatial resolutions by integrating different data sources. This work follows a similar path and focuses on the downscaling of the existing SARA exposure model that was proposed for the residential building stock of the communes of Valparaiso and Vina del Mar (Chile). Although this model allowed great progress in harmonising building classes and characterising their differential physical vulnerabilities, it is now outdated, and in any case, it is spatially aggregated over large administrative units. Hence, to more accurately consider the impact of future earthquakes on these cities, it is necessary to employ more reliable exposure models. For such a purpose, we propose updating this existing model through a Bayesian approach by integrating ancillary data that has been made increasingly available from Volunteering Geo-Information (VGI) activities. Its spatial representation is also optimised in higher resolution aggregation units that avoid the inconvenience of having incomplete building-by-building footprints. A worst-case earthquake scenario is presented to calculate direct economic losses and highlight the degree of uncertainty imposed by exposure models in comparison with other parameters used to generate the seismic ground motions within a sensitivity analysis. This example study shows the great potential of using increasingly available VGI to update worldwide building exposure models as well as its importance in scenario-based seismic risk assessment.}, language = {en} } @article{SairamBrillSiegetal.2021, author = {Sairam, Nivedita and Brill, Fabio Alexander and Sieg, Tobias and Farrag, Mostafa and Kellermann, Patric and Viet Dung Nguyen, and L{\"u}dtke, Stefan and Merz, Bruno and Schr{\"o}ter, Kai and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Kreibich, Heidi}, title = {Process-based flood risk assessment for Germany}, series = {Earth's future / American Geophysical Union}, volume = {9}, journal = {Earth's future / American Geophysical Union}, number = {10}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken, NJ}, issn = {2328-4277}, doi = {10.1029/2021EF002259}, pages = {12}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Large-scale flood risk assessments are crucial for decision making, especially with respect to new flood defense schemes, adaptation planning and estimating insurance premiums. We apply the process-based Regional Flood Model (RFM) to simulate a 5000-year flood event catalog for all major catchments in Germany and derive risk curves based on the losses per economic sector. The RFM uses a continuous process simulation including a multisite, multivariate weather generator, a hydrological model considering heterogeneous catchment processes, a coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model considering dike overtopping and hinterland storage, spatially explicit sector-wise exposure data and empirical multi-variable loss models calibrated for Germany. For all components, uncertainties in the data and models are estimated. We estimate the median Expected Annual Damage (EAD) and Value at Risk at 99.5\% confidence for Germany to be euro0.529 bn and euro8.865 bn, respectively. The commercial sector dominates by making about 60\% of the total risk, followed by the residential sector. The agriculture sector gets affected by small return period floods and only contributes to less than 3\% to the total risk. The overall EAD is comparable to other large-scale estimates. However, the estimation of losses for specific return periods is substantially improved. The spatial consistency of the risk estimates avoids the large overestimation of losses for rare events that is common in other large-scale assessments with homogeneous return periods. Thus, the process-based, spatially consistent flood risk assessment by RFM is an important step forward and will serve as a benchmark for future German-wide flood risk assessments.}, language = {en} } @article{KamaliJahanbakhshiDogaruetal.2022, author = {Kamali, Bahareh and Jahanbakhshi, Farshid and Dogaru, Diana and Dietrich, J{\"o}rg and Nendel, Claas and AghaKouchak, Amir}, title = {Probabilistic modeling of crop-yield loss risk under drought: a spatial showcase for sub-Saharan Africa}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {17}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, number = {2}, publisher = {IOP Publishing}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac4ec1}, pages = {15}, year = {2022}, abstract = {Assessing the risk of yield loss in African drought-affected regions is key to identify feasible solutions for stable crop production. Recent studies have demonstrated that Copula-based probabilistic methods are well suited for such assessment owing to reasonably inferring important properties in terms of exceedance probability and joint dependence of different characterization. However, insufficient attention has been given to quantifying the probability of yield loss and determining the contribution of climatic factors. This study applies the Copula theory to describe the dependence between drought and crop yield anomalies for rainfed maize, millet, and sorghum crops in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The environmental policy integrated climate model, calibrated with Food and Agriculture Organization country-level yield data, was used to simulate yields across SSA (1980-2012). The results showed that the severity of yield loss due to drought had a higher magnitude than the severity of drought itself. Sensitivity analysis to identify factors contributing to drought and high-temperature stresses for all crops showed that the amount of precipitation during vegetation and grain filling was the main driver of crop yield loss, and the effect of temperature was stronger for sorghum than for maize and millet. The results demonstrate the added value of probabilistic methods for drought-impact assessment. For future studies, we recommend looking into factors influencing drought and high-temperature stresses as individual/concurrent climatic extremes.}, language = {en} } @article{LiStomaLottaetal.2020, author = {Li, Chen and Stoma, Svetlana and Lotta, Luca A. and Warner, Sophie and Albrecht, Eva and Allione, Alessandra and Arp, Pascal P. and Broer, Linda and Buxton, Jessica L. and Boeing, Heiner and Langenberg, Claudia and Codd, Veryan}, title = {Genome-wide association analysis in humans links nucleotide metabolism to leukocyte telomere length}, series = {American Journal of Human Genetics}, volume = {106}, journal = {American Journal of Human Genetics}, number = {3}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, pages = {16}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is a heritable biomarker of genomic aging. In this study, we perform a genome-wide meta-analysis of LTL by pooling densely genotyped and imputed association results across large-scale European-descent studies including up to 78,592 individuals. We identify 49 genomic regions at a false dicovery rate (FDR) < 0.05 threshold and prioritize genes at 31, with five highlighting nucleotide metabolism as an important regulator of LTL. We report six genome-wide significant loci in or near SENP7, MOB1B, CARMIL1 , PRRC2A, TERF2, and RFWD3, and our results support recently identified PARP1, POT1, ATM, and MPHOSPH6 loci. Phenome-wide analyses in >350,000 UK Biobank participants suggest that genetically shorter telomere length increases the risk of hypothyroidism and decreases the risk of thyroid cancer, lymphoma, and a range of proliferative conditions. Our results replicate previously reported associations with increased risk of coronary artery disease and lower risk for multiple cancer types. Our findings substantially expand current knowledge on genes that regulate LTL and their impact on human health and disease.}, language = {en} } @article{VanHoutTachmazidouBackmanetal.2020, author = {Van Hout, Cristopher V. and Tachmazidou, Ioanna and Backman, Joshua D. and Hoffman, Joshua D. and Liu, Daren and Pandey, Ashutosh K. and Gonzaga-Jauregui, Claudia and Khalid, Shareef and Ye, Bin and Banerjee, Nilanjana and Li, Alexander H. and O'Dushlaine, Colm and Marcketta, Anthony and Staples, Jeffrey and Schurmann, Claudia and Hawes, Alicia and Maxwell, Evan and Barnard, Leland and Lopez, Alexander and Penn, John and Habegger, Lukas and Blumenfeld, Andrew L. and Bai, Xiaodong and O'Keeffe, Sean and Yadav, Ashish and Praveen, Kavita and Jones, Marcus and Salerno, William J. and Chung, Wendy K. and Surakka, Ida and Willer, Cristen J. and Hveem, Kristian and Leader, Joseph B. and Carey, David J. and Ledbetter, David H. and Cardon, Lon and Yancopoulos, George D. and Economides, Aris and Coppola, Giovanni and Shuldiner, Alan R. and Balasubramanian, Suganthi and Cantor, Michael and Nelson, Matthew R. and Whittaker, John and Reid, Jeffrey G. and Marchini, Jonathan and Overton, John D. and Scott, Robert A. and Abecasis, Goncalo R. and Yerges-Armstrong, Laura M. and Baras, Aris}, title = {Exome sequencing and characterization of 49,960 individuals in the UK Biobank}, series = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, volume = {586}, journal = {Nature : the international weekly journal of science}, number = {7831}, publisher = {Macmillan Publishers Limited}, address = {London}, organization = {Regeneron Genetics Ctr}, issn = {0028-0836}, doi = {10.1038/s41586-020-2853-0}, pages = {749 -- 756}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The UK Biobank is a prospective study of 502,543 individuals, combining extensive phenotypic and genotypic data with streamlined access for researchers around the world(1). Here we describe the release of exome-sequence data for the first 49,960 study participants, revealing approximately 4 million coding variants (of which around 98.6\% have a frequency of less than 1\%). The data include 198,269 autosomal predicted loss-of-function (LOF) variants, a more than 14-fold increase compared to the imputed sequence. Nearly all genes (more than 97\%) had at least one carrier with a LOF variant, and most genes (more than 69\%) had at least ten carriers with a LOF variant. We illustrate the power of characterizing LOF variants in this population through association analyses across 1,730 phenotypes. In addition to replicating established associations, we found novel LOF variants with large effects on disease traits, includingPIEZO1on varicose veins,COL6A1on corneal resistance,MEPEon bone density, andIQGAP2andGMPRon blood cell traits. We further demonstrate the value of exome sequencing by surveying the prevalence of pathogenic variants of clinical importance, and show that 2\% of this population has a medically actionable variant. Furthermore, we characterize the penetrance of cancer in carriers of pathogenicBRCA1andBRCA2variants. Exome sequences from the first 49,960 participants highlight the promise of genome sequencing in large population-based studies and are now accessible to the scientific community.
Exome sequences from the first 49,960 participants in the UK Biobank highlight the promise of genome sequencing in large population-based studies and are now accessible to the scientific community.}, language = {en} }