@article{BubeckThieken2017, author = {Bubeck, Philip and Thieken, Annegret}, title = {What helps people recover from floods?}, series = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {18}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Heidelberg}, issn = {1436-3798}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-017-1200-y}, pages = {287 -- 296}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The number of people exposed to natural hazards has grown steadily over recent decades, mainly due to increasing exposure in hazard-prone areas. In the future, climate change could further enhance this trend. Still, empirical and comprehensive insights into individual recovery from natural hazards are largely lacking, hampering efforts to increase societal resilience. Drawing from a sample of 710 residents affected by flooding across Germany in June 2013, we empirically explore a wide range of variables possibly influencing self-reported recovery, including flood-event characteristics, the circumstances of the recovery process, socio-economic characteristics, and psychological factors, using multivariate statistics. We found that the amount of damage and other flood-event characteristics such as inundation depth are less important than socio-economic characteristics (e.g., sex or health status) and psychological factors (e.g., risk aversion and emotions). Our results indicate that uniform recovery efforts focusing on areas that were the most affected in terms of physical damage are insufficient to account for the heterogeneity in individual recovery results. To increase societal resilience, aid and recovery efforts should better address the long-term psychological effects of floods.}, language = {en} } @article{VehKorupvonSpechtetal.2019, author = {Veh, Georg and Korup, Oliver and von Specht, Sebastian and R{\"o}ßner, Sigrid and Walz, Ariane}, title = {Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya}, series = {Nature climate change}, volume = {9}, journal = {Nature climate change}, number = {5}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {1758-678X}, doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5}, pages = {379 -- 383}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Shrinking glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya-Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have formed several thousand moraine-dammed glacial lakes(1-3), some of these having grown rapidly in past decades(3,4). This growth may promote more frequent and potentially destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)(5-7). Testing this hypothesis, however, is confounded by incomplete databases of the few reliable, though selective, case studies. Here we present a consistent Himalayan GLOF inventory derived automatically from all available Landsat imagery since the late 1980s. We more than double the known GLOF count and identify the southern Himalayas as a hotspot region, compared to the more rarely affected Hindu Kush-Karakoram ranges. Nevertheless, the average annual frequency of 1.3 GLOFs has no credible posterior trend despite reported increases in glacial lake areas in most of the HKKHN3,8, so that GLOF activity per unit lake area has decreased since the late 1980s. We conclude that learning more about the frequency and magnitude of outburst triggers, rather than focusing solely on rapidly growing glacial lakes, might improve the appraisal of GLOF hazards.}, language = {en} } @article{BergholzMayRistowetal.2017, author = {Bergholz, Kolja and May, Felix and Ristow, Michael and Giladi, Itamar and Ziv, Yaron and Jeltsch, Florian}, title = {Two Mediterranean annuals feature high within-population trait variability and respond differently to a precipitation gradient}, series = {Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft f{\"u}r {\"O}kologie}, volume = {25}, journal = {Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft f{\"u}r {\"O}kologie}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Jena}, issn = {1439-1791}, doi = {10.1016/j.baae.2017.11.001}, pages = {48 -- 58}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Intraspecific trait variability plays an important role in species adaptation to climate change. However, it still remains unclear how plants in semi-arid environments respond to increasing aridity. We investigated the intraspecific trait variability of two common Mediterranean annuals (Geropogon hybridus and Crupina crupinastrum) with similar habitat preferences. They were studied along a steep precipitation gradient in Israel similar to the maximum predicted precipitation changes in the eastern Mediterranean basin (i.e. -30\% until 2100). We expected a shift from competitive ability to stress tolerance with decreasing precipitation and tested this expectation by measuring key functional traits (canopy and seed release height, specific leaf area, N-and P-leaf content, seed mass). Further, we evaluated generative bet-hedging strategies by different seed traits. Both species showed different responses along the precipitation gradient. C. crupinastrum exhibited only decreased plant height toward saridity, while G. hybridus showed strong trends of generative adaptation to aridity. Different seed trait indices suggest increased bet-hedging of G. hybridus in arid environments. However, no clear trends along the precipitation gradient were observed in leaf traits (specific leaf area and leaf N-/P-content) in both species. Moreover, variance decomposition revealed that most of the observed trait variation (>> 50\%) is found within populations. The findings of our study suggest that responses to increased aridity are highly species-specific and local environmental factors may have a stronger effect on intraspecific trait variation than shifts in annual precipitation. We therefore argue that trait-based analyses should focus on precipitation gradients that are comparable to predicted precipitation changes and compare precipitation effects to effects of local environmental factors. (C) 2017 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.}, language = {en} } @article{NorrisCarvalhoJonesetal.2017, author = {Norris, Jesse and Carvalho, Leila M. V. and Jones, Charles and Cannon, Forest and Bookhagen, Bodo and Palazzi, Elisa and Tahir, Adnan Ahmad}, title = {The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Himalaya: evaluation of one-year WRF model simulation}, series = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system}, volume = {49}, journal = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {0930-7575}, doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3414-y}, pages = {2179 -- 2204}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over central Asia over the year April 2005 through March 2006. Experiments are performed at 6.7 km horizontal grid spacing, with an emphasis on winter and summer precipitation over the Himalaya. The model and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission show a similar inter-seasonal cycle of precipitation, from extratropical cyclones to monsoon precipitation, with agreement also in the diurnal cycle of monsoon precipitation. In winter months, WRF compares better in timeseries of daily precipitation to stations below than above 3-km elevation, likely due to inferior measurement of snow than rain by the stations, highlighting the need for reliable snowfall measurements at high elevations in winter. In summer months, the nocturnal precipitation cycle in the foothills and valleys of the Himalaya is captured by this 6.7-km WRF simulation, while coarser simulations with convective parameterization show near zero nocturnal precipitation. In winter months, higher resolution is less important, serving only to slightly increase precipitation magnitudes due to steeper slopes. However, even in the 6.7-km simulation, afternoon precipitation is overestimated at high elevations, which can be reduced by even higher-resolution (2.2-km) simulations. These results indicate that WRF provides skillful simulations of precipitation relevant for studies of water resources over the complex terrain in the Himalaya.}, language = {en} } @article{Fuhr2021, author = {Fuhr, Harald}, title = {The rise of the Global South and the rise in carbon emissions}, series = {Third world quarterly}, volume = {42}, journal = {Third world quarterly}, number = {11}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {0143-6597}, doi = {10.1080/01436597.2021.1954901}, pages = {2724 -- 2746}, year = {2021}, abstract = {Jointly with the Global North, the rise of the Global South has come at a high cost to the environment. Driven by its high energy intensity and the use of fossil fuels, the South has contributed a significant portion of global emissions during the last 30 years, and is now contributing some 63\% of today's total GHG emissions (including land-use change and forestry). Similar to the Global North, the Global South's emissions are heavily concentrated: India and China alone account for some 60\% and the top 10 countries for some 78\% of the group's emissions, while some 120 countries account for only 22\%. Without highlighting such differences, it makes little sense to use the term 'Global South'. Its members are affected differently, and contribute differently to global climate change. They neither share a common view, nor do they pursue joint interests when it comes to international climate negotiations. Instead, they are organised into more than a dozen subgroups of the global climate regime. There is no single climate strategy for the Global South, and climate action will differ enormously from country to country. Furthermore, just and equitable transitions may be particularly challenging for some countries.}, language = {en} } @article{YairBryanLaveeetal.2013, author = {Yair, Aaron and Bryan, Rorke B. and Lavee, Hanoch and Schwanghart, Wolfgang and Kuhn, Nikolaus J.}, title = {The resilience of a badland area to climate change in an arid environment}, series = {Catena : an interdisciplinary journal of soil science, hydrology, geomorphology focusing on geoecology and landscape evolution}, volume = {106}, journal = {Catena : an interdisciplinary journal of soil science, hydrology, geomorphology focusing on geoecology and landscape evolution}, number = {4}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0341-8162}, doi = {10.1016/j.catena.2012.04.006}, pages = {12 -- 21}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Badlands have long been considered as model landscapes due to their perceived close relationship between form and process. The often intense features of erosion have also attracted many geomorphologists because the associated high rates of erosion appeared to offer the opportunity for studying surface processes and the resulting forms. Recently, the perceived simplicity of badlands has been questioned because the expected relationships between driving forces for erosion and the resulting sediment yield could not be observed. Further, a high variability in erosion and sediment yield has been observed across scales. Finally, denudation based on currently observed erosion rates would have lead to the destruction of most badlands a long time ago. While the perceived simplicity of badlands has sparked a disproportional (compared to the land surface they cover) amount of research, our increasing amount of information has not necessarily increased our understanding of badlands in equal terms. Overall, badlands appear to be more complex than initially assumed. In this paper, we review 40 years of research in the Zin Valley Badlands in Israel to reconcile some of the conflicting results observed there and develop a perspective on the function of badlands as model landscapes. While the data collected in the Zin Valley clearly confirm that spatial and temporal patterns of geomorphic processes and their interaction with topography and surface properties have to be understood, we still conclude that the process of realizing complexity in the "simple" badlands has a model function both for our understanding as well as perspective on all landscape systems.}, language = {en} } @article{BuergerPfisterBronstert2019, author = {B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Pfister, A. and Bronstert, Axel}, title = {Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall}, series = {Journal of climate}, volume = {32}, journal = {Journal of climate}, number = {22}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0894-8755}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0136.1}, pages = {7597 -- 7609}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Estimates of present and future extreme sub-hourly rainfall are derived from a daily spatial followed by a sub-daily temporal downscaling, the latter of which incorporates a novel, and crucial, temperature sensitivity. Specifically, daily global climate fields are spatially downscaled to local temperature T and precipitation P, which are then disaggregated to a temporal resolution of 10 min using a multiplicative random cascade model. The scheme is calibrated and validated with a group of 21 station records of 10-min resolution in Germany. The cascade model is used in the classical (denoted as MC) and in the new T-sensitive (MC+) version, which respects local Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) effects such as CC scaling. Extreme P is positively biased in both MC versions. Observed T sensitivity is absent in MC but well reproduced by MC+. Long-term positive trends in extreme sub-hourly P are generally more pronounced and more significant in MC+ than in MC. In units of 10-min rainfall, observed centennial trends in annual exceedance counts (EC) of P > 5 mm are +29\% and in 3-yr return levels (RL) +27\%. For the RCP4.5-simulated future, higher extremes are projected in both versions MC and MC+: per century, EC increases by 30\% for MC and by 83\% for MC+; the RL rises by 14\% for MC and by 33\% for MC+. Because the projected daily P trends are negligible, the sub-daily signal is mainly driven by local temperature.}, language = {en} } @article{WiesmeierPrietzelBartholdetal.2013, author = {Wiesmeier, Martin and Prietzel, J{\"o}rg and Barthold, Frauke Katrin and Sp{\"o}rlein, Peter and Geuss, Uwe and Hangen, Edzard and Reischl, Arthur and Schilling, Bernd and von L{\"u}tzow, Margit and K{\"o}gel-Knabner, Ingrid}, title = {Storage and drivers of organic carbon in forest soils of southeast Germany (Bavaria) - Implications for carbon sequestration}, series = {Forest ecology and management}, volume = {295}, journal = {Forest ecology and management}, number = {10}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0378-1127}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2013.01.025}, pages = {162 -- 172}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Temperate forest soils of central Europe are regarded as important pools for soil organic carbon (SOC) and thought to have a high potential for carbon (C) sequestration. However, comprehensive data on total SOC storage, particularly under different forest types, and its drivers is limited. In this study, we analyzed a forest data set of 596 completely sampled soil profiles down to the parent material or to a depth of 1 m within Bavaria in southeast Germany in order to determine representative SOC stocks under different forest types in central Europe and the impact of different environmental parameters. We calculated a total median SOC stock of 9.8 kg m(-2) which is considerably lower compared with many other inventories within central Europe that used modelled instead of measured soil properties. Statistical analyses revealed climate as controlling parameter for the storage of SOC with increasing stocks in cool, humid mountainous regions and a strong decrease in areas with higher temperatures. No significant differences of total SOC storage were found between broadleaf, coniferous and mixed forests. However, coniferous forests stored around 35\% of total SOC in the labile organic layer that is prone to human disturbance, forest fires and rising temperatures. In contrast, mixed and broadleaf forests stored the major part of SOC in the mineral soil. Moreover, these two forest types showed unchanged or even slightly increased mineral SOC stocks with higher temperatures, whereas SOC stocks in mineral soils under coniferous forest were distinctly lower. We conclude that mixed and broadleaf forests are more advantageous for C sequestration than coniferous forests. An intensified incorporation of broadleaf species in extent coniferous forests of Bavaria would prevent substantial SOC losses as a result of rising temperatures in the course of climate change.}, language = {en} } @article{BellJonesSmithetal.2012, author = {Bell, M. J. and Jones, E. and Smith, J. and Smith, P. and Yeluripati, J. and Augustin, J{\"u}rgen and Juszczak, R. and Olejnik, J. and Sommer, Michael}, title = {Simulation of soil nitrogen, nitrous oxide emissions and mitigation scenarios at 3 European cropland sites using the ECOSSE model}, series = {Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems}, volume = {92}, journal = {Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1385-1314}, doi = {10.1007/s10705-011-9479-4}, pages = {161 -- 181}, year = {2012}, abstract = {The global warming potential of nitrous oxide (N2O) and its long atmospheric lifetime mean its presence in the atmosphere is of major concern, and that methods are required to measure and reduce emissions. Large spatial and temporal variations means, however, that simple extrapolation of measured data is inappropriate, and that other methods of quantification are required. Although process-based models have been developed to simulate these emissions, they often require a large amount of input data that is not available at a regional scale, making regional and global emission estimates difficult to achieve. The spatial extent of organic soils means that quantification of emissions from these soil types is also required, but will not be achievable using a process-based model that has not been developed to simulate soil water contents above field capacity or organic soils. The ECOSSE model was developed to overcome these limitations, and with a requirement for only input data that is readily available at a regional scale, it can be used to quantify regional emissions and directly inform land-use change decisions. ECOSSE includes the major processes of nitrogen (N) turnover, with material being exchanged between pools of SOM at rates modified by temperature, soil moisture, soil pH and crop cover. Evaluation of its performance at site-scale is presented to demonstrate its ability to adequately simulate soil N contents and N2O emissions from cropland soils in Europe. Mitigation scenarios and sensitivity analyses are also presented to demonstrate how ECOSSE can be used to estimate the impact of future climate and land-use change on N2O emissions.}, language = {en} } @article{WischnewskiHerzschuhRuehlandetal.2014, author = {Wischnewski, Juliane and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Ruehland, Kathleen M. and Braeuning, Achim and Mischke, Steffen and Smol, John P. and Wang, Lily}, title = {Recent ecological responses to climate variability and human impacts in the Nianbaoyeze Mountains (eastern Tibetan Plateau) inferred from pollen, diatom and tree-ring data}, series = {Journal of paleolimnolog}, volume = {51}, journal = {Journal of paleolimnolog}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0921-2728}, doi = {10.1007/s10933-013-9747-1}, pages = {287 -- 302}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The Tibetan Plateau is a region that is highly sensitive to recent global warming, but the complexity and heterogeneity of its mountainous landscape can result in variable responses. In addition, the scarcity and brevity of regional instrumental and palaeoecological records still hamper our understanding of past and present patterns of environmental change. To investigate how the remote, high-alpine environments of the Nianbaoyeze Mountains, eastern Tibetan Plateau, are affected by climate change and human activity over the last similar to 600 years, we compared regional tree-ring studies with pollen and diatom remains archived in the dated sediments of Dongerwuka Lake (33.22A degrees N, 101.12A degrees E, 4,307 m a.s.l.). In agreement with previous studies from the eastern Tibetan Plateau, a strong coherence between our two juniper-based tree-ring chronologies from the Nianbaoyeze and the Anemaqin Mountains was observed, with pronounced cyclical variations in summer temperature reconstructions. A positive directional trend to warmer summer temperatures in the most recent decades, was, however, not observed in the tree-ring record. Likewise, our pollen and diatom spectra showed minimal change over the investigated time period. Although modest, the most notable change in the diatom relative abundances was a subtle decrease in the dominant planktonic Cyclotella ocellata and a concurrent increase in small, benthic fragilarioid taxa in the similar to 1820s, suggesting higher ecosystem variability. The pollen record subtly indicates three periods of increased cattle grazing activity (similar to 1400-1480 AD, similar to 1630-1760 AD, after 1850 AD), but shows generally no significant vegetation changes during past similar to 600 years. The minimal changes observed in the tree-ring, diatom and pollen records are consistent with the presence of localised cooling centres that are evident in instrumental and tree-ring data within the southeastern and eastern Tibetan Plateau. Given the minor changes in regional temperature records, our complacent palaeoecological profiles suggest that climatically induced ecological thresholds have not yet been crossed in the Nianbaoyeze Mountains region.}, language = {en} } @article{SommerKalbeEkstrometal.2014, author = {Sommer, Robert S. and Kalbe, Johannes and Ekstrom, Jonas and Benecke, Norbert and Liljegren, Ronnie}, title = {Range dynamics of the reindeer in Europe during the last 25,000 years}, series = {Journal of biogeography}, volume = {41}, journal = {Journal of biogeography}, number = {2}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0305-0270}, doi = {10.1111/jbi.12193}, pages = {298 -- 306}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Aim To understand the role and significance of the reindeer, Rangifer tarandus (Linnaeus, 1758), as a specific indicator in terms of late Quaternary biogeography and to determine the effects of global climate change on its range and local extinction dynamics at the end of the Ice Age. Location Late Pleistocene/early Holocene range of reindeer over all of central and western Europe, including southern Scandinavia and northern Iberia, but excluding Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine. Methods Radiocarbon-dated subfossil records of R. tarandus from both archaeological and natural deposits younger than 25,000 years were assembled in a database. The distribution area was divided into six representative regions. The C-14 dates were calibrated and plotted chronologically in maps in order to compare presence and absence and regional extinction patterns from one region to another. Main conclusions The late Quaternary record for reindeer in Europe during the last 25 kyr shows a climate-driven dispersal and retreat in response to climate change, with regional variations. The collapse of the mammoth steppe biome did not lead to the local extinction in Europe, as in the case of other megafaunal species. Rangifer tarandus co-existed for about 3000 years during the Late Glacial and early Holocene with typical temperate species such as red deer and roe deer in non-analogue faunal communities. The regional extinction at the end of the Pleistocene coincides with the transition from light open birch/pine forests to pine/deciduous forests.}, language = {en} } @article{DolgenerFreudenbergerSchneeweissetal.2014, author = {Dolgener, Nicola and Freudenberger, L. and Schneeweiss, N. and Ibisch, P. L. and Tiedemann, Ralph}, title = {Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany}, series = {Regional environmental change}, volume = {14}, journal = {Regional environmental change}, number = {3}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Heidelberg}, issn = {1436-3798}, doi = {10.1007/s10113-013-0468-9}, pages = {1063 -- 1072}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.}, language = {en} } @article{LuisHorreoLuisaPelaezBreedveldetal.2019, author = {Luis Horreo, Jose and Luisa Pelaez, Maria and Breedveld, Merel Cathelijne and Suarez, Teresa and Urieta, Maria and Fitze, Patrick S.}, title = {Population structure of the oviparous South-West European common lizard}, series = {European journal of wildlife research}, volume = {65}, journal = {European journal of wildlife research}, number = {1}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {1612-4642}, doi = {10.1007/s10344-018-1242-6}, pages = {9}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Gene flow is an important factor determining the evolution of a species, since it directly affects population structure and species' adaptation. Here, we investigated population structure, population history, and migration among populations covering the entire distribution of the geographically isolated South-West European common lizard (Zootoca vivipara louislantzi) using 34 newly developed polymorphic microsatellite markers. The analyses unravelled the presence of isolation by distance, inbreeding, recent bottlenecks, genetic differentiation, and low levels of migration among most populations, suggesting that Z. vivipara louislantzi is threatened. The results point to discontinuous populations and are in line with physical barriers hindering longitudinal migration south to the central Pyrenean cordillera and latitudinal migration in the central Pyrenees. In contrast, evidence for longitudinal migration exists from the lowlands north to the central Pyrenean cordillera and the Cantabrian Mountains. The locations of the populations south to the central Pyrenean cordillera were identified as the first to be affected by global warming; thus, management actions aimed at avoiding population declines should start in this area.}, language = {en} } @article{LemkeKolbGraaeetal.2015, author = {Lemke, Isgard H. and Kolb, Annette and Graae, Bente J. and De Frenne, Pieter and Acharya, Kamal P. and Blandino, Cristina and Brunet, Jorg and Chabrerie, Olivier and Cousins, Sara A. O. and Decocq, Guillaume and Heinken, Thilo and Hermy, Martin and Liira, Jaan and Schmucki, Reto and Shevtsova, Anna and Verheyen, Kris and Diekmann, Martin}, title = {Patterns of phenotypic trait variation in two temperate forest herbs along a broad climatic gradient}, series = {Plant ecology : an international journal}, volume = {216}, journal = {Plant ecology : an international journal}, number = {11}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1385-0237}, doi = {10.1007/s11258-015-0534-0}, pages = {1523 -- 1536}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Phenotypic trait variation plays a major role in the response of plants to global environmental change, particularly in species with low migration capabilities and recruitment success. However, little is known about the variation of functional traits within populations and about differences in this variation on larger spatial scales. In a first approach, we therefore related trait expression to climate and local environmental conditions, studying two temperate forest herbs, Milium effusum and Stachys sylvatica, along a similar to 1800-2500 km latitudinal gradient. Within each of 9-10 regions in six European countries, we collected data from six populations of each species and recorded several variables in each region (temperature, precipitation) and population (light availability, soil parameters). For each plant, we measured height, leaf area, specific leaf area, seed mass and the number of seeds and examined environmental effects on within-population trait variation as well as on trait means. Most importantly, trait variation differed both between and within populations. Species, however, differed in their response. Intrapopulation variation in Milium was consistently positively affected by higher mean temperatures and precipitation as well as by more fertile local soil conditions, suggesting that more productive conditions may select for larger phenotypic variation. In Stachys, particularly light availability positively influenced trait variation, whereas local soil conditions had no consistent effects. Generally, our study emphasises that intra-population variation may differ considerably across larger scales-due to phenotypic plasticity and/or underlying genetic diversity-possibly affecting species response to global environmental change.}, language = {en} } @article{WischnewskiMackayApplebyetal.2011, author = {Wischnewski, Juliane and Mackay, Anson W. and Appleby, Peter G. and Mischke, Steffen and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Modest diatom responses to regional warming on the southeast Tibetan Plateau during the last two centuries}, series = {Journal of paleolimnolog}, volume = {46}, journal = {Journal of paleolimnolog}, number = {2}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0921-2728}, doi = {10.1007/s10933-011-9533-x}, pages = {215 -- 227}, year = {2011}, abstract = {A general mean annual temperature increase accompanied with substantial glacial retreat has been noted on the Tibetan Plateau during the last two centuries but most significantly since the mid 1950s. These climate trends are particularly apparent on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. However, the Tibetan Plateau (due to its heterogeneous mountain landscape) has very complex and spatially differing temperature and precipitations patterns. As a result, intensive palaeolimnological investigations are necessary to decipher these climatic patterns and to understand ecological responses to recent environmental change. Here we present palaeolimnological results from a (210)Pb/(137)Cs-dated sediment core spanning approximately the last 200 years from a remote high-mountain lake (LC6 Lake, working name) on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Sediment profiles of diatoms, organic variables (TOC, C:N) and grain size were investigated. The (210)Pb record suggests a period of rapid sedimentation, which might be linked to major tectonic events in the region ca. 1950. Furthermore, unusually high (210)Pb supply rates over the last 50 years suggest that the lake has possibly been subjected to increasing precipitation rates, sediment focussing and/or increased spring thaw. The majority of diatom taxa encountered in the core are typical of slightly acidic to circumneutral, oligotrophic, electrolyte-poor lakes. Diatom species assemblages were rich, and dominated by Cyclotella sp., Achnanthes sp., Aulacoseira sp. and fragilarioid taxa. Diatom compositional change was minimal over the 200-year period (DCCA = 0.85 SD, p = 0.59); only a slightly more diverse but unstable diatom assemblage was recorded during the past 50 years. The results indicate that large-scale environmental changes recorded in the twentieth century (i.e. increased precipitation and temperatures) are likely having an affect on the LC6 Lake, but so far these impacts are more apparent on the lake geochemistry than on the diatom flora. Local and/or regional peculiarities, such as increasing precipitation and cloud cover, or localized climatic phenomena, such as negative climate feedbacks, might have offset the effects of increasing mean surface temperatures.}, language = {en} } @article{FerTietjenJeltschetal.2017, author = {Fer, Istem and Tietjen, Britta and Jeltsch, Florian and Trauth, Martin H.}, title = {Modelling vegetation change during Late Cenozoic uplift of the East African plateaus}, series = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences}, volume = {467}, journal = {Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0031-0182}, doi = {10.1016/j.palaeo.2016.04.007}, pages = {120 -- 130}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The present-day vegetation in the tropics is mainly characterized by forests worldwide except in tropical East Africa, where forests only occur as patches at the coast and in the uplands. These forest patches result from the peculiar aridity that is linked to the uplift of the region during the Late Cenozoic. The Late Cenozoic vegetation history of East Africa is of particular interest as it has set the scene for the contemporary events in mammal and hominin evolution. In this study, we investigate the conditions under which these forest patches could have been connected, and a previous continuous forest belt could have extended and fragmented. We apply a dynamic vegetation model with a set of climatic scenarios in which we systematically alter the present-day environmental conditions such that they would be more favourable for a continuous forest belt in tropical East Africa. We consider varying environmental factors, namely temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Our results show that all of these variables play a significant role in supporting the forest biomes and a continuous forest belt could have occurred under certain combinations of these settings. With our current knowledge of the palaeoenvironmental history of East Africa, it is likely that the region hosted these conditions during the Late Cenozoic. Recent improvements on environmental hypotheses of hominin evolution highlight the role of periods of short and extreme climate variability during the Late Cenozoic specific to East Africa in driving evolution. Our results elucidate how the forest biomes of East Africa can appear and disappear under fluctuating environmental conditions and demonstrate how this climate variability might be recognized on the biosphere level.}, language = {en} } @article{SchaldachWimmerKochetal.2013, author = {Schaldach, R{\"u}diger and Wimmer, Florian and Koch, Jennifer and Volland, Jan and Geissler, Katja and K{\"o}chy, Martin}, title = {Model-based analysis of the environmental impacts of grazing management on Eastern Mediterranean ecosystems in Jordan}, series = {Journal of environmental management}, volume = {127}, journal = {Journal of environmental management}, number = {9}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {London}, issn = {0301-4797}, doi = {10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.11.024}, pages = {S84 -- S95}, year = {2013}, abstract = {Eastern Mediterranean ecosystems are prone to desertification when under grazing pressure. Therefore, management of grazing intensity plays a crucial role to avoid or to diminish land degradation and to sustain both livelihoods and ecosystem functioning. The dynamic land-use model LandSHIFT was applied to a case study on the country level for Jordan. The impacts of different stocking densities on the environment were assessed through a set of simulation experiments for various combinations of climate input and assumptions about the development of livestock numbers. Indicators used for the analysis include a set of landscape metrics to account for habitat fragmentation and the "Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production" (HANPP), i.e., the difference between the amount of net primary production (NPP) that would be available in a natural ecosystem and the amount of NPP that remains under human management. Additionally, the potential of the economic valuation of ecosystem services, including landscape and grazing services, as an analysis concept was explored. We found that lower management intensities had a positive effect on HANPP but at the same time resulted in a strong increase of grazing area. This effect was even more pronounced under climate change due to a predominantly negative effect on the biomass productivity of grazing land. Also Landscape metrics tend to indicate decreasing habitat fragmentation as a consequence of lower grazing pressure. The valuation of ecosystem services revealed that low grazing intensity can lead to a comparatively higher economic value on the country level average. The results from our study underline the importance of considering grazing management as an important factor to manage dry-land ecosystems in a sustainable manner.}, language = {en} } @article{AvramiSprinz2018, author = {Avrami, Lydia and Sprinz, Detlef F.}, title = {Measuring and explaining the EU's effect on national climate performance}, series = {Environmental Politics}, volume = {28}, journal = {Environmental Politics}, number = {5}, publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {0964-4016}, doi = {10.1080/09644016.2018.1494945}, pages = {822 -- 846}, year = {2018}, abstract = {To what extent has the European Union (EU) had a benign or retarding effect on what its member states would have undertaken in the absence of EU climate policies during 2008-2012? A measurement tool for the EU policy's effect is developed and shows a benign average EU effect with considerable variation across countries. The EU's policy effectiveness vis-{\`a}-vis its member states is explained by the EU's non-compliance mechanism, the degree of usage of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, and national pre-Kyoto emission reduction goals. Time-series cross-sectional analyses show that the EU's non-compliance mechanism has no effect, while the ex-ante plans for using Kyoto flexible mechanisms and/or the ambitious pre-Kyoto emission reduction targets allow member states to escape constraints imposed by EU climate policy.}, language = {en} } @article{CaronDeFrenneBrunetetal.2014, author = {Caron, Maria Mercedes and De Frenne, P. and Brunet, J. and Chabrerie, Olivier and Cousins, S. A. O. and De Backer, L. and Diekmann, M. and Graae, B. J. and Heinken, Thilo and Kolb, A. and Naaf, T. and Plue, J. and Selvi, F. and Strimbeck, G. R. and Wulf, Monika and Verheyen, Kris}, title = {Latitudinal variation in seeds characteristics of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus}, series = {Plant ecology : an international journal}, volume = {215}, journal = {Plant ecology : an international journal}, number = {8}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {1385-0237}, doi = {10.1007/s11258-014-0343-x}, pages = {911 -- 925}, year = {2014}, abstract = {Climate change will likely affect population dynamics of numerous plant species by modifying several aspects of the life cycle. Because plant regeneration from seeds may be particularly vulnerable, here we assess the possible effects of climate change on seed characteristics and present an integrated analysis of seven seed traits (nutrient concentrations, samara mass, seed mass, wing length, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass) of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus seeds collected along a wide latitudinal gradient from Italy to Norway. Seed traits were analyzed in relation to the environmental conditions experienced by the mother trees along the latitudinal gradient. We found that seed traits of A. platanoides were more influenced by the climatic conditions than those of A. pseudoplatanus. Additionally, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass of A. platanoides were strongly related to the seed mass and nutrient concentration. While A. platanoides seeds were more influenced by the environmental conditions (generally negatively affected by rising temperatures), compared to A. pseudoplatanus, A. platanoides still showed higher germination percentage and seedling biomass than A. pseudoplatanus. Thus, further research on subsequent life-history stages of both species is needed. The variation in seed quality observed along the climatic gradient highlights the importance of studying the possible impact of climate change on seed production and species demography.}, language = {en} } @article{BartholdWiesmeierBreueretal.2013, author = {Barthold, Frauke Katrin and Wiesmeier, Martin and Breuer, L. and Frede, Hans-Georg and Wu, J. and Blank, F. Benjamin}, title = {Land use and climate control the spatial distribution of soil types in the grasslands of Inner Mongolia}, series = {Journal of arid environments}, volume = {88}, journal = {Journal of arid environments}, number = {1}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {London}, issn = {0140-1963}, doi = {10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.08.004}, pages = {194 -- 205}, year = {2013}, abstract = {The spatial distribution of soil types is controlled by a set of environmental factors such as climate, organisms, parent material and topography as well as time and space. A change of these factors will lead to a change in the spatial distribution of soil types. In this study, we use a digital soil mapping approach to improve our knowledge about major soil type distributing factors in the steppe regions of Inner Mongolia (China) which currently undergo tremendous environmental change, e.g. climate and land use change. We use Random Forests in an effort to map Reference Soil Groups according to the World Reference Base for Soil Resources (WRB) in the Xilin River catchment. We benefit from the superior prediction capabilities of RF and additional interpretive results in order to identify the major environmental factors that control spatial patterns of soil types. The nine WRB soil groups that were identified and spatially predicted for the study area are Arenosol, Calcisol, Cambisol, Chernozem, Cryosol, Gleysol, Kastanozem, Phaeozem and Regosol. Model and prediction performances of the RF model are high with an Out-of-Bag error of 51.6\% for the model and a misclassification error for the predicted map of 28.9\%. The main controlling factors of soil type distribution are land use, a set of topographic variables, geology and climate. However, land use and climate are of major importance and topography and geology are of minor importance. The visualizations of the predictions, the variable importance measures as result of RF and the comparisons of these with the spatial distribution of the environmental factors delivered additional, quantitative information of these controlling factors and revealed that intensively grazed areas are subjected to soil degradation. However, most of the area is still governed by natural soil forming processes which are driven by climate, topography and geology. Most importantly though, our study revealed that a shift towards warmer temperatures and lower precipitation regimes will lead to a change of the spatial distribution of RSGs towards steppe soils that store less carbon, i.e. a decrease of spatial extent of Phaeozems and an increase of spatial extent of Chernozems and Kastanozems.}, language = {en} }