@article{ZoellerHainzlTilmannetal.2020, author = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Hainzl, Sebastian and Tilmann, Frederik and Woith, Heiko and Dahm, Torsten}, title = {Comment on: Wikelski, Martin; M{\"u}ller, Uschi; Scocco, Paola; Catorci, Andrea; Desinov, Lev V.; Belyaev, Mikhail Y.; Keim, Daniel A.; Pohlmeier, Winfried; Fechteler, Gerhard; Mai, Martin P. : Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring. - Ethology. - 126 (2020), 9. - S. 931 - 941. -ISSN 0179-1613. - eISSN 1439-0310. - doi 10.1111/eth.13078}, series = {Ethology}, volume = {127}, journal = {Ethology}, number = {3}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0179-1613}, doi = {10.1111/eth.13105}, pages = {302 -- 306}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a "short-term earthquake forecasting method." We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state-of-the-art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power.}, language = {en} } @article{NooshiriSaulHeimannetal.2017, author = {Nooshiri, Nima and Saul, Joachim and Heimann, Sebastian and Tilmann, Frederik and Dahm, Torsten}, title = {Revision of earthquake hypocentre locations in global bulletin data sets using source-specific station terms}, series = {Geophysical journal international}, volume = {208}, journal = {Geophysical journal international}, number = {2}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0956-540X}, doi = {10.1093/gji/ggw405}, pages = {589 -- 602}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Global earthquake locations are often associated with very large systematic travel-time residuals even for clear arrivals, especially for regional and near-regional stations in subduction zones because of their strongly heterogeneous velocity structure. Travel-time corrections can drastically reduce travel-time residuals at regional stations and, in consequence, improve the relative location accuracy. We have extended the shrinking-box source-specific station terms technique to regional and teleseismic distances and adopted the algorithm for probabilistic, nonlinear, global-search location. We evaluated the potential of the method to compute precise relative hypocentre locations on a global scale. The method has been applied to two specific test regions using existing P- and pP-phase picks. The first data set consists of 3103 events along the Chilean margin and the second one comprises 1680 earthquakes in the Tonga-Fiji subduction zone. Pick data were obtained from the GEOFON earthquake bulletin, produced using data from all available, global station networks. A set of timing corrections varying as a function of source position was calculated for each seismic station. In this way, we could correct the systematic errors introduced into the locations by the inaccuracies in the assumed velocity structure without explicitly solving for a velocity model. Residual statistics show that the median absolute deviation of the travel-time residuals is reduced by 40-60 per cent at regional distances, where the velocity anomalies are strong. Moreover, the spread of the travel-time residuals decreased by similar to 20 per cent at teleseismic distances (>28 degrees). Furthermore, strong variations in initial residuals as a function of recording distance are smoothed out in the final residuals. The relocated catalogues exhibit less scattered locations in depth and sharper images of the seismicity associated with the subducting slabs. Comparison with a high-resolution local catalogue reveals that our relocation process significantly improves the hypocentre locations compared to standard locations.}, language = {en} } @article{PaloTilmannKruegeretal.2014, author = {Palo, Mauro and Tilmann, Frederik and Kr{\"u}ger, Frank and Ehlert, Lutz and Lange, Dietrich}, title = {High-frequency seismic radiation from Maule earthquake (M-w 8.8, 2010 February 27) inferred from high-resolution backprojection analysis}, series = {Geophysical journal international}, volume = {199}, journal = {Geophysical journal international}, number = {2}, publisher = {Oxford Univ. Press}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0956-540X}, doi = {10.1093/gji/ggu311}, pages = {1058 -- 1077}, year = {2014}, abstract = {We track a bilateral rupture propagation lasting similar to 160 s, with its dominant branch rupturing northeastwards at about 3 kms(-1). The area of maximum energy emission is offset from the maximum coseismic slip but matches the zone where most plate interface aftershocks occur. Along dip, energy is preferentially released from two disconnected interface belts, and a distinct jump from the shallower belt to the deeper one is visible after about 20 s from the onset. However, both belts keep on being active until the end of the rupture. These belts approximately match the position of the interface aftershocks, which are split into two clusters of events at different depths, thus suggesting the existence of a repeated transition from stick-slip to creeping frictional regime.}, language = {en} } @article{LangeTilmannBarrientosetal.2012, author = {Lange, Dietrich and Tilmann, Frederik and Barrientos, Sergio E. and Contreras-Reyes, Eduardo and Methe, Pascal and Moreno, Marcos and Heit, Ben and Agurto, Hans and Bernard, Pascal and Vilotte, Jean-Pierre and Beck, Susan}, title = {Aftershock seismicity of the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake rupture zone}, series = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, volume = {317}, journal = {Earth \& planetary science letters}, number = {2}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0012-821X}, doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2011.11.034}, pages = {413 -- 425}, year = {2012}, abstract = {On 27 February 2010 the M-w 8.8 Maule earthquake in Central Chile ruptured a seismic gap where significant strain had accumulated since 1835. Shortly after the mainshock a dense network of temporary seismic stations was installed along the whole rupture zone in order to capture the aftershock activity. Here, we present the aftershock distribution and first motion polarity focal mechanisms based on automatic detection algorithms and picking engines. By processing the seismic data between 15 March and 30 September 2010 from stations from IRIS, IPGP, GFZ and University of Liverpool we determined 20,205 hypocentres with magnitudes M-w between 1 and 5.5. Seismic activity occurs in six groups: 1.) Normal faulting outer rise events 2.) A shallow group of plate interface seismicity apparent at 25-35 km depth and 50-120 km distance to the trench with some variations between profiles. Along strike, the aftershocks occur largely within the zone of coseismic slip but extend similar to 50 km further north, and with predominantly shallowly dipping thrust mechanisms. Along dip, the events are either within the zone of coseismic slip, or downdip from it, depending on the coseismic slip model used. 3.) A third band of seismicity is observed further downdip at 40-50 km depth and further inland at 150-160 km trench perpendicular distance, with mostly shallow dipping (similar to 28 degrees) thrust focal mechanisms indicating rupture of the plate interface significantly downdip of the coseismic rupture, and presumably above the intersection of the continental Moho with the plate interface. 4.) A deep group of intermediate depth events between 80 and 120 km depth is present north of 36 degrees S. Within the Maule segment, a large portion of events during the inter-seismic phase originated from this depth range. 5.) The magmatic arc exhibits a small amount of crustal seismicity but does not appear to show significantly enhanced activity after the M-w 8.8 Maule 2010 earthquake. 6.) Pronounced crustal aftershock activity with mainly normal faulting mechanisms is found in the region of Pichilemu (similar to 34.5 degrees S). These crustal events occur in a similar to 30 km wide region with sharp inclined boundaries and oriented oblique to the trench. The best-located events describe a plane dipping to the southwest, consistent with one of the focal planes of the large normal-faulting aftershock (M-w = 6.9) on 11 March 2010.}, language = {en} }