@article{DahlkeSolbesMaturilli2022,
  author    = {Dahlke, Sandro and Solb{\`e}s, Am{\´e}lie and Maturilli, Marion},
  title     = {Cold air outbreaks in fram strait: climatology, trends, and observations during an extreme season in 2020},
  series = {Journal of geophysical research : atmospheres},
  volume    = {127},
  journal   = {Journal of geophysical research : atmospheres},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {2169-897X},
  doi       = {10.1029/2021JD035741},
  pages     = {18},
  year      = {2022},
  abstract  = {Fram Strait in the northern North Atlantic is a key region for marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs), southward discharges of polar air under northerly air flow, which have a strong impact on air-sea heat fluxes, boundary layer processes and severe weather. This study investigates climatologies and decadal trends of Fram Strait MCAOs of different intensity classes based on the ERA5 reanalysis product for 1979-2020. Among striking interannual variability, it is shown that the main MCAO season is December through March, when MCAOs occur around 2/3 of the time. We report on significant decadal MCAO decreases in December and January, and a significant increase in March. While the mid-winter decrease is mainly related to the different paces of warming between the surface and the lower atmosphere, the increase in March can be related to changes in synoptic circulation patterns. As an explanation for the latter, a possible feedback between retreating Barents Sea sea ice, enhanced cyclonic activity and Fram Strait MCAOs is postulated. Exemplifying the trend toward stronger MCAOs during March, the study details the recordbreaking MCAO season in early 2020, and an observational case study of an extreme MCAO event in March 2020 is conducted. Thereby, radiosonde observations are combined with kinematic air back-trajectories to provide rare observational evidence for the diabatic cooling and drying during the MCAO preconditioning phase.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{DahlkeMaturilli2017,
  author    = {Dahlke, Sandro and Maturilli, Marion},
  title     = {Contribution of atmospheric advection to the amplified winter warming in the arctic north atlantic region},
  series = {Advances in meteorology},
  journal   = {Advances in meteorology},
  publisher = {Hindawi Publ. Corp.},
  address   = {New York},
  issn      = {1687-9309},
  doi       = {10.1155/2017/4928620},
  pages     = {8},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Arctic Amplification of climate warming is caused by various feedback processes in the atmosphere-ocean-ice system and yields the strongest temperature increase during winter in the Arctic North Atlantic region. In our study, we attempt to quantify the advective contribution to the observed atmospheric warming in the Svalbard area. Based on radiosonde measurements from Ny-{\AA}lesund, a strong dependence of the tropospheric temperature on the synoptic flow direction is revealed. Using FLEXTRA backward trajectories, an increase of advection from the lower latitude Atlantic region towards Ny-{\AA}lesund is found that is attributed to a change in atmospheric circulation patterns. We find that about one-quarter (0.45 K per decade) of the observed atmospheric winter near surface warming trend in the North Atlantic region of the Arctic (2 K per decade) is due to increased advection of warm and moist air from the lower latitude Atlantic region, affecting the entire troposphere.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Dahlke2020,
  author    = {Dahlke, Sandro},
  title     = {Rapid climate changes in the arctic region of Svalbard},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-44554},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445542},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xv, 123},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Over the last decades, the Arctic regions of the earth have warmed at a rate 2-3 times faster than the global average- a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. A complex, non-linear interplay of physical processes and unique pecularities in the Arctic climate system is responsible for this, but the relative role of individual processes remains to be debated. This thesis focuses on the climate change and related processes on Svalbard, an archipelago in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic, which is shown to be a "hotspot" for the amplified recent warming during winter. In this highly dynamical region, both oceanic and atmospheric large-scale transports of heat and moisture interfere with spatially inhomogenous surface conditions, and the corresponding energy exchange strongly shapes the atmospheric boundary layer. In the first part, Pan-Svalbard gradients in the surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice extent (SIE) in the fjords are quantified and characterized. This analysis is based on observational data from meteorological stations, operational sea ice charts, and hydrographic observations from the adjacent ocean, which cover the 1980-2016 period. It is revealed that typical estimates of SIE during late winter range from 40-50\% (80-90\%) in the western (eastern) parts of Svalbard. However, strong SAT warming during winter of the order of 2-3K per decade dictates excessive ice loss, leaving fjords in the western parts essentially ice-free in recent winters. It is further demostrated that warm water currents on the west coast of Svalbard, as well as meridional winds contribute to regional differences in the SIE evolution. In particular, the proximity to warm water masses of the West Spitsbergen Current can explain 20-37\% of SIE variability in fjords on west Svalbard, while meridional winds and associated ice drift may regionally explain 20-50\% of SIE variability in the north and northeast. Strong SAT warming has overruled these impacts in recent years, though. In the next part of the analysis, the contribution of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes to the Svalbard temperature development over the last 20 years is investigated. A study employing kinematic air-back trajectories for Ny-{\AA}lesund reveals a shift in the source regions of lower-troposheric air over time for both the winter and the summer season. In winter, air in the recent decade is more often of lower-latitude Atlantic origin, and less frequent of Arctic origin. This affects heat- and moisture advection towards Svalbard, potentially manipulating clouds and longwave downward radiation in that region. A closer investigation indicates that this shift during winter is associated with a strengthened Ural blocking high and Icelandic low, and contributes about 25\% to the observed winter warming on Svalbard over the last 20 years. Conversely, circulation changes during summer include a strengthened Greenland blocking high which leads to more frequent cold air advection from the central Arctic towards Svalbard, and less frequent air mass origins in the lower latitudes of the North Atlantic. Hence, circulation changes during winter are shown to have an amplifying effect on the recent warming on Svalbard, while summer circulation changes tend to mask warming. An observational case study using upper air soundings from the AWIPEV research station in Ny-{\AA}lesund during May-June 2017 underlines that such circulation changes during summer are associated with tropospheric anomalies in temperature, humidity and boundary layer height. In the last part of the analysis, the regional representativeness of the above described changes around Svalbard for the broader Arctic is investigated. Therefore, the terms in the diagnostic temperature equation in the Arctic-wide lower troposphere are examined for the Era-Interim atmospheric reanalysis product. Significant positive trends in diabatic heating rates, consistent with latent heat transfer to the atmosphere over regions of increasing ice melt, are found for all seasons over the Barents/Kara Seas, and in individual months in the vicinity of Svalbard. The above introduced warm (cold) advection trends during winter (summer) on Svalbard are successfully reproduced. Regarding winter, they are regionally confined to the Barents Sea and Fram Strait, between 70°-80°N, resembling a unique feature in the whole Arctic. Summer cold advection trends are confined to the area between eastern Greenland and Franz Josef Land, enclosing Svalbard.},
  language  = {en}
}