@phdthesis{Malik2011,
  author    = {Malik, Nishant},
  title     = {Extremes in events and dynamics : a nonlinear data analysis perspective on the past and present dynamics of the Indian summer monsoon},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-58016},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {To identify extreme changes in the dynamics of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) in the past, I propose a new approach based on the quantification of fluctuations of a nonlinear similarity measure, to identify regimes of distinct dynamical complexity in short time series. I provide an analytical derivation for the relationship of the new measure with the dynamical invariants such as dimension and Lyapunov exponents of the underlying system. A statistical test is also developed to estimate the significance of the identified transitions. Our method is justified by uncovering bifurcation structures in several paradigmatic models, providing more complex transitions compared with traditional Lyapunov exponents. In a real world situation, we apply the method to identify millennial-scale dynamical transitions in Pleistocene proxy records of the south Asian summer monsoon system. We infer that many of these transitions are induced by the external forcing of solar insolation and are also affected by internal forcing on Monsoonal dynamics, i.e., the glaciation cycles of the Northern Hemisphere and the onset of the tropical Walker circulation. Although this new method has general applicability, it is particularly useful in analysing short palaeo-climate records. Rainfall during the ISM over the Indian subcontinent occurs in form of enormously complex spatiotemporal patterns due to the underlying dynamics of atmospheric circulation and varying topography. I present a detailed analysis of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian peninsular using Event Synchronization (ES), a measure of nonlinear correlation for point processes such as rainfall. First, using hierarchical clustering I identify principle regions where the dynamics of monsoonal rainfall is more coherent or homogenous. I also provide a method to reconstruct the time delay patterns of rain events. Moreover, further analysis is carried out employing the tools of complex network theory. This study provides valuable insights into the spatial organization, scales, and structure of the 90th and 94th percentile rainfall events during the ISM (June to September). I furthermore analyse the influence of different critical synoptic atmospheric systems and the impact of the steep Himalayan topography on rainfall patterns. The presented method not only helps in visualising the structure of the extremeevent rainfall fields, but also identifies the water vapor pathways and decadal-scale moisture sinks over the region. Furthermore a simple scheme based on complex networks is presented to decipher the spatial intricacies and temporal evolution of monsoonal rainfall patterns over the last six decades. Some supplementary results on the evolution of monsoonal rainfall extremes over the last sixty years are also presented.},
  language  = {de}
}