@article{TotzTzipermanCoumouetal.2017, author = {Totz, Sonja Juliana and Tziperman, Eli and Coumou, Dim and Pfeiffer, Karl and Cohen, Judah}, title = {Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {44}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1002/2017GL075674}, pages = {12418 -- 12426}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.}, language = {en} } @article{KretschmerCoumouDongesetal.2016, author = {Kretschmer, Marlene and Coumou, Dim and Donges, Jonathan and Runge, Jakob}, title = {Using Causal Effect Networks to Analyze Different Arctic Drivers of Midlatitude Winter Circulation}, series = {Journal of climate}, volume = {29}, journal = {Journal of climate}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0894-8755}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1}, pages = {4069 -- 4081}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In recent years, the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes have suffered from severe winters like the extreme 2012/13 winter in the eastern United States. These cold spells were linked to a meandering upper-tropospheric jet stream pattern and a negative Arctic Oscillation index (AO). However, the nature of the drivers behind these circulation patterns remains controversial. Various studies have proposed different mechanisms related to changes in the Arctic, most of them related to a reduction in sea ice concentrations or increasing Eurasian snow cover. Here, a novel type of time series analysis, called causal effect networks (CEN), based on graphical models is introduced to assess causal relationships and their time delays between different processes. The effect of different Arctic actors on winter circulation on weekly to monthly time scales is studied, and robust network patterns are found. Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations are detected to be important external drivers of the midlatitude circulation, influencing winter AO via tropospheric mechanisms and through processes involving the stratosphere. Eurasia snow cover is also detected to have a causal effect on sea level pressure in Asia, but its exact role on AO remains unclear. The CEN approach presented in this study overcomes some difficulties in interpreting correlation analyses, complements model experiments for testing hypotheses involving teleconnections, and can be used to assess their validity. The findings confirm that sea ice concentrations in autumn in the Barents and Kara Seas are an important driver of winter circulation in the midlatitudes.}, language = {en} } @article{CoumouLehmannBeckmann2015, author = {Coumou, Dim and Lehmann, Jascha and Beckmann, Johanna}, title = {The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes}, series = {Science}, volume = {348}, journal = {Science}, number = {6232}, publisher = {American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0036-8075}, doi = {10.1126/science.1261768}, pages = {324 -- 327}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Rapid warming in the Arctic could influence mid-latitude circulation by reducing the poleward temperature gradient. The largest changes are generally expected in autumn or winter, but whether significant changes have occurred is debated. Here we report significant weakening of summer circulation detected in three key dynamical quantities: (i) the zonal-mean zonal wind, (ii) the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), and (iii) the amplitude of fast-moving Rossby waves. Weakening of the zonal wind is explained by a reduction in the poleward temperature gradient. Changes in Rossby waves and EKE are consistent with regression analyses of climate model projections and changes over the seasonal cycle. Monthly heat extremes are associated with low EKE, and thus the observed weakening might have contributed to more persistent heat waves in recent summers.}, language = {en} } @article{LehmannCoumou2015, author = {Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim}, title = {The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes}, series = {Scientific reports}, volume = {5}, journal = {Scientific reports}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2045-2322}, doi = {10.1038/srep17491}, pages = {9}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central-to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia.}, language = {en} } @article{TotzEliseevPetrietal.2018, author = {Totz, Sonja Juliana and Eliseev, Alexey V. and Petri, Stefan and Flechsig, Michael and Caesar, Levke and Petoukhov, Vladimir and Coumou, Dim}, title = {The dynamical core of the Aeolus 1.0 statistical-dynamical atmosphere model}, series = {Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, volume = {11}, journal = {Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union}, number = {2}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1991-959X}, doi = {10.5194/gmd-11-665-2018}, pages = {665 -- 679}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Here, we present novel equations for the large-scale zonal-mean wind as well as those for planetary waves. Together with synoptic parameterization (as presented by Coumou et al., 2011), these form the mathematical description of the dynamical core of Aeolus 1.0. The regions of high azonal wind velocities (planetary waves) are accurately captured for all validation experiments. The zonal-mean zonal wind and the integrated lower troposphere mass flux show good results in particular in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the model tends to produce too-weak zonal-mean zonal winds and a too-narrow Hadley circulation. We discuss possible reasons for these model biases as well as planned future model improvements and applications.}, language = {en} } @article{KretschmerCohenMatthiasetal.2018, author = {Kretschmer, Marlene and Cohen, Judah and Matthias, Vivien and Runge, Jakob and Coumou, Dim}, title = {The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America}, series = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science}, volume = {1}, journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science}, publisher = {Nature Publ. Group}, address = {London}, issn = {2397-3722}, doi = {10.1038/s41612-018-0054-4}, pages = {10}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The stratospheric polar vortex can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather in the mid-latitudes. Weak vortex states, often associated with sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), have been shown to increase the risk of cold-spells especially over Eurasia, but its role for North American winters is less clear. Using cluster analysis, we show that there are two dominant patterns of increased polar cap heights in the lower stratosphere. Both patterns represent a weak polar vortex but they are associated with different wave mechanisms and different regional tropospheric impacts. The first pattern is zonally symmetric and associated with absorbed upward-propagating wave activity, leading to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and cold-air outbreaks over northern Eurasia. This coupling mechanism is well-documented in the literature and is consistent with the downward migration of the northern annular mode (NAM). The second pattern is zonally asymmetric and linked to downward reflected planetary waves over Canada followed by a negative phase of the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) and cold-spells in Central Canada and the Great Lakes region. Causal effect network (CEN) analyses confirm the atmospheric pathways associated with this asymmetric pattern. Moreover, our findings suggest the reflective mechanism to be sensitive to the exact region of upward wave-activity fluxes and to be state-dependent on the strength of the vortex. Identifying the causal pathways that operate on weekly to monthly timescales can pave the way for improved sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of cold spells in the mid-latitudes.}, language = {en} } @article{KornhuberPetoukhovKarolyetal.2017, author = {Kornhuber, Kai and Petoukhov, Vladimir and Karoly, D. and Petri, Stefan and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Summertime Planetary Wave Resonance in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres}, series = {Journal of climate}, volume = {30}, journal = {Journal of climate}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0894-8755}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0703.1}, pages = {6133 -- 6150}, year = {2017}, language = {en} } @article{TotzPetriLehmannetal.2018, author = {Totz, Sonja Juliana and Petri, Stefan and Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Regional Changes in the Mean Position and Variability of the Tropical Edge}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {45}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, number = {21}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1029/2018GL079911}, pages = {12076 -- 12084}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Recent studies indicate that the tropical belt has been expanding during recent decades, which can significantly influence precipitation in subtropical climates. Often the location of the tropical border is identified using the Hadley cell edge (HCE) or the subtropical jet stream (STJ), but most studies concentrated on the zonal-mean state, thereby missing regional impacts. Here we detect longitudinal-resolved trends in STJ cores and HCEs over 1979-2016 in both hemispheres at a higher spatial and temporal resolution than previous studies. Besides pronounced regional trend differences in both sign and magnitude, we show that winter HCE and STJ variability increased in the Mediterranean region and decreased over the American and Asian continents. Rainfall variability in these regions changed likewise, and most of those changes can be explained by changes in HCE/STJ variability. This highlights the importance of understanding future tropical belt changes both regionally and in terms of variability. Plain Language Summary We applied a new network-based method to detect motion of the tropical climate border with longitudinal resolution. Depending on the longitudinal position, there are differences in both direction and magnitude of the border motion. In addition, we demonstrate that the rainfall variability is increasing in the Mediterranean region and decreasing over the American and Asian continents, which can be explained by the variability of the tropical belt location.}, language = {en} } @article{StadtherrCoumouPetoukhovetal.2016, author = {Stadtherr, Lisa and Coumou, Dim and Petoukhov, Vladimir and Petri, Stefan and Rahmstorf, Stefan}, title = {Record Balkan floods of 2014 linked to planetary wave resonance}, series = {Science Advances}, volume = {2}, journal = {Science Advances}, publisher = {American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2375-2548}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.1501428}, pages = {6}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In May 2014, the Balkans were hit by a Vb-type cyclone that brought disastrous flooding and severe damage to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia. Vb cyclones migrate from the Mediterranean, where they absorb warm and moist air, to the north, often causing flooding in central/eastern Europe. Extreme rainfall events are increasing on a global scale, and both thermodynamic and dynamical mechanisms play a role. Where thermodynamic aspects are generally well understood, there is large uncertainty associated with current and future changes in dynamics. We study the climatic and meteorological factors that influenced the catastrophic flooding in the Balkans, where we focus on large-scale circulation. We show that the Vb cyclone was unusually stationary, bringing extreme rainfall for several consecutive days, and that this situation was likely linked to a quasi-stationary circumglobal Rossby wave train. We provide evidence that this quasi-stationary wave was amplified by wave resonance. Statistical analysis of daily spring rainfall over the Balkan region reveals significant upward trends over 1950-2014, especially in the high quantiles relevant for flooding events. These changes cannot be explained by simple thermodynamic arguments, and we thus argue that dynamical processes likely played a role in increasing flood risks over the Balkans.}, language = {en} } @article{MannRahmstorfKornhuberetal.2018, author = {Mann, Michael E. and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Kornhuber, Kai and Steinman, Byron A. and Miller, Sonya K. and Petri, Stefan and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events}, series = {Science Advances}, volume = {4}, journal = {Science Advances}, number = {10}, publisher = {American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2375-2548}, doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aat3272}, pages = {9}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50\% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.}, language = {en} } @misc{MannRahmstorfKornhuberetal.2018, author = {Mann, Michael E. and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Kornhuber, Kai and Steinman, Byron A. and Miller, Sonya K. and Petri, Stefan and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {994}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44641}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446416}, pages = {12}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50\% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.}, language = {en} } @article{KretschmerCoumouAgeletal.2018, author = {Kretschmer, Marlene and Coumou, Dim and Agel, Laurie and Barlow, Mathew and Tziperman, Eli and Cohen, Judah}, title = {More-Persistent weak stratospheric polar vortex states linked to cold extremes}, series = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, volume = {99}, journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, number = {1}, publisher = {American Meteorological Soc.}, address = {Boston}, issn = {0003-0007}, doi = {10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1}, pages = {49 -- 60}, year = {2018}, abstract = {The extratropical stratosphere in boreal winter is characterized by a strong circumpolar westerly jet, confining the coldest temperatures at high latitudes. The jet, referred to as the stratospheric polar vortex, is predominantly zonal and centered around the pole; however, it does exhibit large variability in wind speed and location. Previous studies showed that a weak stratospheric polar vortex can lead to cold-air outbreaks in the midlatitudes, but the exact relationships and mechanisms are unclear. Particularly, it is unclear whether stratospheric variability has contributed to the observed anomalous cooling trends in midlatitude Eurasia. Using hierarchical clustering, we show that over the last 37 years, the frequency of weak vortex states in mid- to late winter (January and February) has increased, which was accompanied by subsequent cold extremes in midlatitude Eurasia. For this region, 60\% of the observed cooling in the era of Arctic amplification, that is, since 1990, can be explained by the increased frequency of weak stratospheric polar vortex states, a number that increases to almost 80\% when El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability is included as well.}, language = {en} } @misc{LehmannCoumouFrieler2015, author = {Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim and Frieler, Katja}, title = {Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming (vol 132, pg 501, 2015)}, series = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, volume = {132}, journal = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0165-0009}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1466-3}, pages = {517 -- 518}, year = {2015}, language = {en} } @article{LehmannCoumouFrieler2015, author = {Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim and Frieler, Katja}, title = {Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming}, series = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, volume = {132}, journal = {Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, intern. journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change}, number = {4}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Dordrecht}, issn = {0165-0009}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y}, pages = {501 -- 515}, year = {2015}, abstract = {In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of record-breaking daily rainfall events using observational data. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking events has significantly increased in the global mean. Globally, this increase has led to 12 \% more record-breaking rainfall events over 1981-2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of record-breaking rainfall events peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26 \% chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record-breaking rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only. Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall record-breaking events can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, observed record-breaking rainfall events significantly increased afterwards consistent with rising temperatures.}, language = {en} } @article{LehmannCoumouFrieleretal.2014, author = {Lehmann, Jascha and Coumou, Dim and Frieler, Katja and Eliseev, Alexey V. and Levermann, Anders}, title = {Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {9}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, number = {8}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084002}, pages = {8}, year = {2014}, abstract = {The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions.}, language = {en} } @article{TotzPetriLehmannetal.2019, author = {Totz, Sonja Juliana and Petri, Stefan and Lehmann, Jascha and Peukert, Erik and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Exploring the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to different surface temperature forcing using a statistical-dynamical atmospheric model}, series = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics}, volume = {26}, journal = {Nonlinear processes in geophysics}, number = {1}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {1023-5809}, doi = {10.5194/npg-26-1-2019}, pages = {1 -- 12}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Climate and weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are strongly driven by the large-scale atmosphere circulation. Observational data indicate that important components of the large-scale circulation have changed in recent decades, including the strength and the width of the Hadley cell, jets, storm tracks and planetary waves. Here, we use a new statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) to test the individual sensitivities of the large-scale atmospheric circulation to changes in the zonal temperature gradient, meridional temperature gradient and global-mean temperature. We analyze the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, jet streams, storm tracks and planetary waves by systematically altering the zonal temperature asymmetry, the meridional temperature gradient and the global-mean temperature. Our results show that the strength of the Hadley cell, storm tracks and jet streams depend, in terms of relative changes, almost linearly on both the global-mean temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, whereas the zonal temperature asymmetry has little or no influence. The magnitude of planetary waves is affected by all three temperature components, as expected from theoretical dynamical considerations. The width of the Hadley cell behaves nonlinearly with respect to all three temperature components in the SDAM. Moreover, some of these observed large-scale atmospheric changes are expected from dynamical equations and are therefore an important part of model validation.}, language = {en} } @article{KornhuberPetoukhovPetrietal.2016, author = {Kornhuber, Kai and Petoukhov, Vladimir and Petri, Stefan and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Evidence for wave resonance as a key mechanism for generating high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves in boreal summer}, series = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system}, volume = {49}, journal = {Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {0930-7575}, doi = {10.1007/s00382-016-3399-6}, pages = {1961 -- 1979}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Several recent northern hemisphere summer extremes have been linked to persistent high-amplitude wave patterns (e.g. heat waves in Europe 2003, Russia 2010 and in the US 2011, Floods in Pakistan 2010 and Europe 2013). Recently quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) was proposed as a mechanism that, when certain dynamical conditions are fulfilled, can lead to such high-amplitude wave events. Based on these resonance conditions a detection scheme to scan reanalysis data for QRA events in boreal summer months was implemented. With this objective detection scheme we analyzed the occurrence and duration of QRA events and the associated atmospheric flow patterns in 1979-2015 reanalysis data. We detect a total number of 178 events for wave 6, 7 and 8 and find that during roughly one-third of all high amplitude events QRA conditions were met for respective waves. Our analysis reveals a significant shift for quasi-stationary waves 6 and 7 towards high amplitudes during QRA events, lagging first QRA-detection by typically one week. The results provide further evidence for the validity of the QRA hypothesis and its important role in generating high amplitude waves in boreal summer.}, language = {en} } @article{KretschmerRungeCoumou2017, author = {Kretschmer, Marlene and Runge, Jakob and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Early prediction of extreme stratospheric polar vortex states based on causal precursors}, series = {Geophysical research letters}, volume = {44}, journal = {Geophysical research letters}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0094-8276}, doi = {10.1002/2017GL074696}, pages = {8592 -- 8600}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Variability in the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) can influence the tropospheric circulation and thereby winter weather. Early predictions of extreme SPV states are thus important to improve forecasts of winter weather including cold spells. However, dynamical models are usually restricted in lead time because they poorly capture low-frequency processes. Empirical models often suffer from overfitting problems as the relevant physical processes and time lags are often not well understood. Here we introduce a novel empirical prediction method by uniting a response-guided community detection scheme with a causal discovery algorithm. This way, we objectively identify causal precursors of the SPV at subseasonal lead times and find them to be in good agreement with known physical drivers. A linear regression prediction model based on the causal precursors can explain most SPV variability (r(2)=0.58), and our scheme correctly predicts 58\% (46\%) of extremely weak SPV states for lead times of 1-15 (16-30)days with false-alarm rates of only approximately 5\%. Our method can be applied to any variable relevant for (sub)seasonal weather forecasts and could thus help improving long-lead predictions.}, language = {en} } @article{DiCapuaCoumou2016, author = {Di Capua, Giorgia and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation}, series = {Environmental research letters}, volume = {11}, journal = {Environmental research letters}, publisher = {IOP Publ. Ltd.}, address = {Bristol}, issn = {1748-9326}, doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028}, pages = {9}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Strong waves in the mid-latitude circulation have been linked to extreme surface weather and thus changes in waviness could have serious consequences for society. Several theories have been proposed which could alter waviness, including tropical sea surface temperature anomalies or rapid climate change in the Arctic. However, so far it remains unclear whether any changes in waviness have actually occurred. Here we propose a novel meandering index which captures the maximum waviness in geopotential height contours at any given day, using all information of the full spatial position of each contour. Data are analysed on different time scale (from daily to 11 day running means) and both on hemispheric and regional scales. Using quantile regressions, we analyse how seasonal distributions of this index have changed over 1979-2015. The most robust changes are detected for autumn which has seen a pronounced increase in strongly meandering patterns at the hemispheric level as well as over the Eurasian sector. In summer for both the hemisphere and the Eurasian sector, significant downward trends in meandering are detected on daily timescales which is consistent with the recently reported decrease in summer storm track activity. The American sector shows the strongest increase in meandering in the warm season: in particular for 11 day running mean data, indicating enhanced amplitudes of quasi-stationary waves. Our findings have implications for both the occurrence of recent cold spells and persistent heat waves in the mid-latitudes.}, language = {en} } @article{MolnosMamdouhPetrietal.2017, author = {Molnos, Sonja and Mamdouh, Tarek and Petri, Stefan and Nocke, Thomas and Weinkauf, Tino and Coumou, Dim}, title = {A network-based detection scheme for the jet stream core}, series = {Earth system dynamics}, volume = {8}, journal = {Earth system dynamics}, number = {1}, publisher = {Copernicus}, address = {G{\"o}ttingen}, issn = {2190-4979}, doi = {10.5194/esd-8-75-2017}, pages = {75 -- 89}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather. The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams. We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere.}, language = {en} } @misc{MolnosMamdouhPetrietal.2017, author = {Molnos, Sonja and Mamdouh, Tarek and Petri, Stefan and Nocke, Thomas and Weinkauf, Tino and Coumou, Dim}, title = {A network-based detection scheme for the jet stream core}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {625}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-41909}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419099}, pages = {75 -- 89}, year = {2017}, abstract = {The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather. Some algorithms exist which can detect the 2-D (latitude and longitude) jets' core around the hemisphere, but all of them use a minimal threshold to determine the subtropical and polar jet stream. This is particularly problematic for the polar jet stream, whose wind velocities can change rapidly from very weak to very high values and vice versa. We develop a network-based scheme using Dijkstra's shortest-path algorithm to detect the polar and subtropical jet stream core. This algorithm not only considers the commonly used wind strength for core detection but also takes wind direction and climatological latitudinal position into account. Furthermore, it distinguishes between polar and subtropical jet, and between separate and merged jet states. The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams. We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere. With this algorithm it is possible to investigate the position of the jets' cores around the hemisphere and it is therefore very suitable to analyze jet stream patterns in observations and models, enabling more advanced model-validation.}, language = {en} }