@article{SeeligRabeMalemShinitskietal.2020,
  author    = {Seelig, Stefan A. and Rabe, Maximilian Michael and Malem-Shinitski, Noa and Risse, Sarah and Reich, Sebastian and Engbert, Ralf},
  title     = {Bayesian parameter estimation for the SWIFT model of eye-movement control during reading},
  series = {Journal of mathematical psychology},
  volume    = {95},
  journal   = {Journal of mathematical psychology},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  address   = {San Diego},
  issn      = {0022-2496},
  doi       = {10.1016/j.jmp.2019.102313},
  pages     = {32},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {Process-oriented theories of cognition must be evaluated against time-ordered observations. Here we present a representative example for data assimilation of the SWIFT model, a dynamical model of the control of fixation positions and fixation durations during natural reading of single sentences. First, we develop and test an approximate likelihood function of the model, which is a combination of a spatial, pseudo-marginal likelihood and a temporal likelihood obtained by probability density approximation Second, we implement a Bayesian approach to parameter inference using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. Our results indicate that model parameters can be estimated reliably for individual subjects. We conclude that approximative Bayesian inference represents a considerable step forward for computational models of eye-movement control, where modeling of individual data on the basis of process-based dynamic models has not been possible so far.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{SchuettRothkegelTrukenbrodetal.2017,
  author    = {Sch{\"u}tt, Heiko Herbert and Rothkegel, Lars Oliver Martin and Trukenbrod, Hans Arne and Reich, Sebastian and Wichmann, Felix A. and Engbert, Ralf},
  title     = {Likelihood-based parameter estimation and comparison of dynamical cognitive models},
  series = {Psychological Review},
  volume    = {124},
  journal   = {Psychological Review},
  number    = {4},
  publisher = {American Psychological Association},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {0033-295X},
  doi       = {10.1037/rev0000068},
  pages     = {505 -- 524},
  year      = {2017},
  abstract  = {Dynamical models of cognition play an increasingly important role in driving theoretical and experimental research in psychology. Therefore, parameter estimation, model analysis and comparison of dynamical models are of essential importance. In this article, we propose a maximum likelihood approach for model analysis in a fully dynamical framework that includes time-ordered experimental data. Our methods can be applied to dynamical models for the prediction of discrete behavior (e.g., movement onsets); in particular, we use a dynamical model of saccade generation in scene viewing as a case study for our approach. For this model, the likelihood function can be computed directly by numerical simulation, which enables more efficient parameter estimation including Bayesian inference to obtain reliable estimates and corresponding credible intervals. Using hierarchical models inference is even possible for individual observers. Furthermore, our likelihood approach can be used to compare different models. In our example, the dynamical framework is shown to outperform nondynamical statistical models. Additionally, the likelihood based evaluation differentiates model variants, which produced indistinguishable predictions on hitherto used statistics. Our results indicate that the likelihood approach is a promising framework for dynamical cognitive models.},
  language  = {en}
}