@article{KlemmHerzschuhPestryakova2016, author = {Klemm, Juliane and Herzschuh, Ulrike and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna}, title = {Vegetation, climate and lake changes over the last 7000 years at the boreal treeline in north-central Siberia}, series = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, volume = {147}, journal = {Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Oxford}, issn = {0277-3791}, doi = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.08.015}, pages = {422 -- 434}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{KruseWieczorekJeltschetal.2016, author = {Kruse, Stefan and Wieczorek, Mareike and Jeltsch, Florian and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix}, series = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, volume = {338}, journal = {Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog}, publisher = {Elsevier}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0304-3800}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.003}, pages = {101 -- 121}, year = {2016}, language = {en} } @article{KruseHerzschuh2022, author = {Kruse, Stefan and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years}, series = {eLife}, volume = {11}, journal = {eLife}, publisher = {eLife Sciences Publications}, address = {Cambridge}, issn = {2050-084X}, doi = {10.7554/eLife.75163}, pages = {24}, year = {2022}, abstract = {The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear, but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual-based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (relative concentration pathway 2.6) will ~30\% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.}, language = {en} }