@phdthesis{Pradhan2015,
  author    = {Pradhan, Prajal},
  title     = {Food demand and supply under global change},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-77849},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xvi, 141},
  year      = {2015},
  abstract  = {Anthropogenic activities have transformed the Earth's environment, not only on local level, but on the planetary-scale causing global change. Besides industrialization, agriculture is a major driver of global change. This change in turn impairs the agriculture sector, reducing crop yields namely due to soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change. However, this is a more complex issue than it appears. Crop yields can be increased by use of agrochemicals and fertilizers which are mainly produced by fossil energy. This is important to meet the increasing food demand driven by global demographic change, which is further accelerated by changes in regional lifestyles. In this dissertation, we attempt to address this complex problem exploring agricultural potential globally but on a local scale. For this, we considered the influence of lifestyle changes (dietary patterns) as well as technological progress and their effects on climate change, mainly greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Furthermore, we examined options for optimizing crop yields in the current cultivated land with the current cropping patterns by closing yield gaps. Using this, we investigated in a five-minute resolution the extent to which food demand can be met locally, and/or by regional and/or global trade. Globally, food consumption habits are shifting towards calorie rich diets. Due to dietary shifts combined with population growth, the global food demand is expected to increase by 60-110\% between 2005 and 2050. Hence, one of the challenges to global sustainability is to meet the growing food demand, while at the same time, reducing agricultural inputs and environmental consequences. In order to address the above problem, we used several freely available datasets and applied multiple interconnected analytical approaches that include artificial neural network, scenario analysis, data aggregation and harmonization, downscaling algorithm, and cross-scale analysis. Globally, we identified sixteen dietary patterns between 1961 and 2007 with food intakes ranging from 1,870 to 3,400 kcal/cap/day. These dietary patterns also reflected changing dietary habits to meat rich diets worldwide. Due to the large share of animal products, very high calorie diets that are common in the developed world, exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day. This is higher than total per capita emissions of 1.4-4.5 kg CO2eq./day associated with low and moderate calorie diets that are common in developing countries. Currently, 40\% of the global crop calories are fed to livestock and the feed calorie use is four times the produced animal calories. However, these values vary from less than 1 kcal to greater 10 kcal around the world. On the local and national scale, we found that the local and national food production could meet demand of 1.9 and 4.4 billion people in 2000, respectively. However, 1 billion people from Asia and Africa require intercontinental agricultural trade to meet their food demand. Nevertheless, these regions can become food self-sufficient by closing yield gaps that require location specific inputs and agricultural management strategies. Such strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, soil and land improvement, management targeted on mitigating climate induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. However, closing yield gaps in particular requires global N-fertilizer application to increase by 45-73\%, P2O5 by 22-46\%, and K2O by 2-3 times compare to 2010. Considering population growth, we found that the global agricultural GHG emissions will approach 7 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050, while the global livestock feed demand will remain similar to 2000. This changes tremendously when diet shifts are also taken into account, resulting in GHG emissions of 20 Gt CO2eq./yr and an increase of 1.3 times in the crop-based feed demand between 2000 and 2050. However, when population growth, diet shifts, and technological progress by 2050 were considered, GHG emissions can be reduced to 14 Gt CO2eq./yr and the feed demand to nearly 1.8 times compare to that in 2000. Additionally, our findings shows that based on the progress made in closing yield gaps, the number of people depending on international trade can vary between 1.5 and 6 billion by 2050. In medium term, this requires additional fossil energy. Furthermore, climate change, affecting crop yields, will increase the need for international agricultural trade by 4\% to 16\%. In summary, three general conclusions are drawn from this dissertation. First, changing dietary patterns will significantly increase crop demand, agricultural GHG emissions, and international food trade in the future when compared to population growth only. Second, such increments can be reduced by technology transfer and technological progress that will enhance crop yields, decrease agricultural emission intensities, and increase livestock feed conversion efficiencies. Moreover, international trade dependency can be lowered by consuming local and regional food products, by producing diverse types of food, and by closing yield gaps. Third, location specific inputs and management options are required to close yield gaps. Sustainability of such inputs and management largely depends on which options are chosen and how they are implemented. However, while every cultivated land may not need to attain its potential yields to enable food security, closing yield gaps only may not be enough to achieve food self-sufficiency in some regions. Hence, a combination of sustainable implementations of agricultural intensification, expansion, and trade as well as shifting dietary habits towards a lower share of animal products is required to feed the growing population.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{SvirejevaHopkins2004,
  author    = {Svirejeva-Hopkins, Anastasia},
  title     = {Urbanised territories as a specific component of the global carbon cycle},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-0001512},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2004},
  abstract  = {Wir betrachten folgende Teile: die zus{\"a}tzlichen Kohlenstoff(C)-emissionen, welche aus der Umwandlung von nat{\"u}rlichem Umland durch Stadtwachstum resultieren, und die {\"A}nderung des C-Flusses durch 'urbanisierte' {\"O}kosysteme, soweit atmosph{\"a}risches C durch diese in umliegende nat{\"u}rliche {\"O}kosysteme entlang der Kette \“Atmosph{\"a}re -> Vegetation -> abgestorbene organische Substanzen\” gepumpt wird: d.h. C-Export; f{\"u}r den Zeitraum von 1980 bis 2050. Als Szenario nutzen wir Prognosen der regionalen Stadtbev{\"o}lkerung, welche durch ein 'Hybridmodell' generiert werden f{\"u}r acht Regionen. Alle Sch{\"a}tzungen der C-Fl{\"u}sse basieren auf zwei Modellen: das Regression Modell und das sogenannte G-Modell. Die Siedlungsfl{\"a}che, welche mit dem Wachstum der Stadtbev{\"o}lkerung zunimmt, wird in 'Gr{\"u}nfl{\"a}chen' (Parks, usw.), Geb{\"a}udefl{\"a}chen und informell st{\"a}dtisch genutzte Fl{\"a}chen (Slums, illegale Lagerpl{\"a}tze, usw.) unterteilt. Es werden j{\"a}hrlich die regionale und globale Dynamik der C-Emissionen und des C-Exports sowie die C-Gesamtbilanz berechnet. Dabei liefern beide Modelle qualitativ {\"a}hnliche Ergebnisse, jedoch gibt es einige quantitative Unterschiede. Im ersten Modell erreicht die globale Jahresemission f{\"u}r die Dekade 2020-2030 resultierend aus der Landnutzungs{\"a}nderung ein Maximum von 205 Mt/a. Die maximalen Beitr{\"a}ge zur globalen Emission werden durch China, die asiatische und die pazifische Region erbracht. Im zweiten Modell erh{\"o}ht sich die j{\"a}hrliche globale Emission von 1.12 GtC/a f{\"u}r 1980 auf 1.25 GtC/a f{\"u}r 2005 (1Gt = 109 t). Danach beginnt eine Reduzierung. Vergleichen wir das Emissionmaximum mit der Emission durch Abholzung im Jahre 1980 (1.36 GtC/a), k{\"o}nnen wir konstatieren, daß die Urbanisierung damit in vergleichbarer Gr{\"o}sse zur Emission beitr{\"a}gt. Bezogen auf die globale Dynamik des j{\"a}hrlichen C-Exports durch Urbanisierung beobachten wir ein monotones Wachstum bis zum nahezu dreifachen Wert von 24 MtC/a f{\"u}r 1980 auf 66 MtC/a f{\"u}r 2050 im ersten Modell, bzw. im zweiten Modell von 249 MtC/a f{\"u}r 1980 auf 505 MtC/a f{\"u}r 2050. Damit ist im zweiten Fall die Transportleistung der Siedlungsgebiete mit dem C-Transport durch Fl{\"u}sse in die Ozeane (196 .. 537 MtC/a) vergleichbar. Bei der Absch{\"a}tzung der Gesamtbilanz finden wir, daß die Urbanisierung die Bilanz in Richtung zu einer 'Senke' verschiebt. Entsprechend dem zweiten Modell beginnt sich die C-Gesamtbilanz (nach ann{\"a}hernder Konstanz) ab dem Jahre 2000 mit einer fast konstanten Rate zu verringern. Wenn das Maximum im Jahre 2000 bei 905MtC/a liegt, f{\"a}llt dieser Wert anschliessend bis zum Jahre 2050 auf 118 MtC/a. Bei Extrapolation dieser Dynamik in die Zukunft k{\"o}nnen wir annehmen, daß am Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts die \“urbane\” C-Gesamtbilanz Null bzw. negative Werte erreicht.},
  language  = {en}
}