@phdthesis{Braun2023,
  author    = {Braun, Tobias},
  title     = {Recurrences in past climates},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-58690},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-586900},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {xxviii, 251},
  year      = {2023},
  abstract  = {Our ability to predict the state of a system relies on its tendency to recur to states it has visited before. Recurrence also pervades common intuitions about the systems we are most familiar with: daily routines, social rituals and the return of the seasons are just a few relatable examples. To this end, recurrence plots (RP) provide a systematic framework to quantify the recurrence of states. Despite their conceptual simplicity, they are a versatile tool in the study of observational data. The global climate is a complex system for which an understanding based on observational data is not only of academical relevance, but vital for the predurance of human societies within the planetary boundaries. Contextualizing current global climate change, however, requires observational data far beyond the instrumental period. The palaeoclimate record offers a valuable archive of proxy data but demands methodological approaches that adequately address its complexities. In this regard, the following dissertation aims at devising novel and further developing existing methods in the framework of recurrence analysis (RA). The proposed research questions focus on using RA to capture scale-dependent properties in nonlinear time series and tailoring recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to characterize seasonal variability in palaeoclimate records ('Palaeoseasonality'). In the first part of this thesis, we focus on the methodological development of novel approaches in RA. The predictability of nonlinear (palaeo)climate time series is limited by abrupt transitions between regimes that exhibit entirely different dynamical complexity (e.g. crossing of 'tipping points'). These possibly depend on characteristic time scales. RPs are well-established for detecting transitions and capture scale-dependencies, yet few approaches have combined both aspects. We apply existing concepts from the study of self-similar textures to RPs to detect abrupt transitions, considering the most relevant time scales. This combination of methods further results in the definition of a novel recurrence based nonlinear dependence measure. Quantifying lagged interactions between multiple variables is a common problem, especially in the characterization of high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed 'recurrence flow' measure of nonlinear dependence offers an elegant way to characterize such couplings. For spatially extended complex systems, the coupled dynamics of local variables result in the emergence of spatial patterns. These patterns tend to recur in time. Based on this observation, we propose a novel method that entails dynamically distinct regimes of atmospheric circulation based on their recurrent spatial patterns. Bridging the two parts of this dissertation, we next turn to methodological advances of RA for the study of Palaeoseasonality. Observational series of palaeoclimate 'proxy' records involve inherent limitations, such as irregular temporal sampling. We reveal biases in the RQA of time series with a non-stationary sampling rate and propose a correction scheme. In the second part of this thesis, we proceed with applications in Palaeoseasonality. A review of common and promising time series analysis methods shows that numerous valuable tools exist, but their sound application requires adaptions to archive-specific limitations and consolidating transdisciplinary knowledge. Next, we study stalagmite proxy records from the Central Pacific as sensitive recorders of mid-Holocene El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. The records' remarkably high temporal resolution allows to draw links between ENSO and seasonal dynamics, quantified by RA. The final study presented here examines how seasonal predictability could play a role for the stability of agricultural societies. The Classic Maya underwent a period of sociopolitical disintegration that has been linked to drought events. Based on seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Yok Balum cave in Belize, we propose a measure of seasonal predictability. It unveils the potential role declining seasonal predictability could have played in destabilizing agricultural and sociopolitical systems of Classic Maya populations. The methodological approaches and applications presented in this work reveal multiple exciting future research avenues, both for RA and the study of Palaeoseasonality.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Malik2011,
  author    = {Malik, Nishant},
  title     = {Extremes in events and dynamics : a nonlinear data analysis perspective on the past and present dynamics of the Indian summer monsoon},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-58016},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2011},
  abstract  = {To identify extreme changes in the dynamics of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) in the past, I propose a new approach based on the quantification of fluctuations of a nonlinear similarity measure, to identify regimes of distinct dynamical complexity in short time series. I provide an analytical derivation for the relationship of the new measure with the dynamical invariants such as dimension and Lyapunov exponents of the underlying system. A statistical test is also developed to estimate the significance of the identified transitions. Our method is justified by uncovering bifurcation structures in several paradigmatic models, providing more complex transitions compared with traditional Lyapunov exponents. In a real world situation, we apply the method to identify millennial-scale dynamical transitions in Pleistocene proxy records of the south Asian summer monsoon system. We infer that many of these transitions are induced by the external forcing of solar insolation and are also affected by internal forcing on Monsoonal dynamics, i.e., the glaciation cycles of the Northern Hemisphere and the onset of the tropical Walker circulation. Although this new method has general applicability, it is particularly useful in analysing short palaeo-climate records. Rainfall during the ISM over the Indian subcontinent occurs in form of enormously complex spatiotemporal patterns due to the underlying dynamics of atmospheric circulation and varying topography. I present a detailed analysis of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian peninsular using Event Synchronization (ES), a measure of nonlinear correlation for point processes such as rainfall. First, using hierarchical clustering I identify principle regions where the dynamics of monsoonal rainfall is more coherent or homogenous. I also provide a method to reconstruct the time delay patterns of rain events. Moreover, further analysis is carried out employing the tools of complex network theory. This study provides valuable insights into the spatial organization, scales, and structure of the 90th and 94th percentile rainfall events during the ISM (June to September). I furthermore analyse the influence of different critical synoptic atmospheric systems and the impact of the steep Himalayan topography on rainfall patterns. The presented method not only helps in visualising the structure of the extremeevent rainfall fields, but also identifies the water vapor pathways and decadal-scale moisture sinks over the region. Furthermore a simple scheme based on complex networks is presented to decipher the spatial intricacies and temporal evolution of monsoonal rainfall patterns over the last six decades. Some supplementary results on the evolution of monsoonal rainfall extremes over the last sixty years are also presented.},
  language  = {de}
}
@phdthesis{Gutschow2007,
  author    = {Gutschow, Stephan},
  title     = {Zu cervicalen Distorsionsverletzungen und deren Auswirkungen auf posturale Schwankungsmuster},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-15367},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2007},
  abstract  = {Einleitung \& Problemstellung: Beschwerden nach Beschleunigungsverletzungen der Halswirbels{\"a}ule sind oft nur unzureichend einzuordnen und diagnostizierbar. Eine eindeutige Diagnostik ist jedoch f{\"u}r eine entsprechende Therapie wie auch m{\"o}glicherweise entstehende versicherungsrechtliche Forderungen notwendig. Die Entwicklung eines geeigneten Diagnoseverfahrens liegt damit im Interesse von Betroffenen wie auch Kostentr{\"a}gern. Neben St{\"o}rungen der Weichteilgewebe ist fast immer die Funktion der Halsmuskulatur in Folge eines Traumas beeintr{\"a}chtigt. Dabei wird vor allem die sensorische Funktion der HWS-Muskulatur, die an der Regulation des Gleichgewichts beteiligt ist, gest{\"o}rt. In Folge dessen kann angenommen werden, dass es zu einer Beeintr{\"a}chtigung der Gleichgewichtsregulation kommt. Die Zielstellung der Arbeit lautete deshalb, die m{\"o}glicherweise gest{\"o}rte Gleichgewichtsregulation nach einem Trauma im HWS-Bereich apparativ zu erfassen, um so die Verletzung eindeutig diagnostizieren zu k{\"o}nnen. Methodik: Unter Verwendung eines posturographischen Messsystems mit Kraftmomentensensorik wurden bei 478 Probanden einer Vergleichsgruppe und bei 85 Probanden eines Patientenpools Kraftmomente unter der Fußsohle als {\"A}ußerung der posturalen Balanceregulation aufgezeichnet. Die gemessenen Balancezeitreihen wurden nichtlinear analysiert, um die hohe Variabilit{\"a}t der Gleichgewichtsregulation optimal zu beschreiben. {\"U}ber die dabei gewonnenen Parameter kann {\"u}berpr{\"u}ft werden, ob sich spezifische Unterschiede im Schwankungsverhalten anhand der plantaren Druckverteilung zwischen HWS-Traumatisierten und den Probanden der Kontrollgruppe klassifizieren lassen. Ergebnisse: Die beste Klassifizierung konnte dabei {\"u}ber Parameter erzielt werden, die das Schwankungsverhalten in Phasen beschreiben, in denen die Amplitudenschwankungen relativ gering ausgepr{\"a}gt waren. Die Analysen ergaben signifikante Unterschiede im Balanceverhalten zwischen der Gruppe HWS-traumatisierter Probanden und der Vergleichsgruppe. Die h{\"o}chsten Trennbarkeitsraten wurden dabei durch Messungen im ruhigen beidbeinigen Stand mit geschlossenen Augen erzielt. Diskussion: Das posturale Balanceverhalten wies jedoch in allen Messpositionen eine hohe individuelle Varianz auf, so dass kein allgemeing{\"u}ltiges Schwankungsmuster f{\"u}r eine Gruppengesamtheit klassifiziert werden konnte. Eine individuelle Vorhersage der Gruppenzugeh{\"o}rigkeit ist damit nicht m{\"o}glich. Die verwendete Messtechnik und die angewandten Auswerteverfahren tragen somit zwar zu einem Erkenntnisgewinn und zur Beschreibung des Gleichgewichtsverhaltens nach HWS-Traumatisierung bei. Sie k{\"o}nnen jedoch zum derzeitigen Stand f{\"u}r den Einzelfall keinen Beitrag zu einer eindeutigen Bestimmung eines Schleudertraumas leisten.},
  language  = {de}
}