@article{WenzLevermannAuffhammer2017, author = {Wenz, Leonie and Levermann, Anders and Auffhammer, Maximilian}, title = {North-south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming}, series = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, volume = {114}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America}, publisher = {National Acad. of Sciences}, address = {Washington}, issn = {0027-8424}, doi = {10.1073/pnas.1704339114}, pages = {E7910 -- E7918}, year = {2017}, abstract = {There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply sidethrough the mitigation of greenhouse gasesand from the demand sidethrough adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the worlds third-largest electricity marketthe 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level doseresponse functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006-2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common doseresponse function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each countrys currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on todays European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigationin line with the Paris agreementto unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (similar to 3 to similar to 7\% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (similar to-6 to similar to-2\% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity.}, language = {en} } @article{WieczorekKruseEppetal.2017, author = {Wieczorek, Mareike and Kruse, Stefan and Epp, Laura Saskia and Kolmogorov, Alexei and Nikolaev, Anatoly N. and Heinrich, Ingo and Jeltsch, Florian and Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna and Zibulski, Romy and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Dissimilar responses of larch stands in northern Siberia to increasing temperatures-a field and simulation based study}, series = {Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, volume = {98}, journal = {Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America}, publisher = {Wiley}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {0012-9658}, doi = {10.1002/ecy.1887}, pages = {2343 -- 2355}, year = {2017}, abstract = {Arctic and alpine treelines worldwide differ in their reactions to climate change. A northward advance of or densification within the treeline ecotone will likely influence climate-vegetation feedback mechanisms. In our study, which was conducted in the Taimyr Depression in the North Siberian Lowlands, w present a combined field-and model-based approach helping us to better understand the population processes involved in the responses of the whole treeline ecotone, spanning from closed forest to single-tree tundra, to climate warming. Using information on stand structure, tree age, and seed quality and quantity from seven sites, we investigate effects of intra-specific competition and seed availability on the specific impact of recent climate warming on larch stands. Field data show that tree density is highest in the forest-tundra, and average tree size decreases from closed forest to single-tree tundra. Age-structure analyses indicate that the trees in the closed forest and forest-tundra have been present for at least similar to 240 yr. At all sites except the most southerly ones, past establishment is positively correlated with regional temperature increase. In the single-tree tundra, however, a change in growth form from krummholz to erect trees, beginning similar to 130 yr ago, rather than establishment date has been recorded. Seed mass decreases from south to north, while seed quantity increases. Simulations with LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator) further suggest that relative density changes strongly in response to a warming signal in the forest-tundra while intra-specific competition limits densification in the closed forest and seed limitation hinders densification in the single-tree tundra. We find striking differences in strength and timing of responses to recent climate warming. While forest-tundra stands recently densified, recruitment is almost non-existent at the southern and northern end of the ecotone due to autecological processes. Palaeo-treelines may therefore be inappropriate to infer past temperature changes at a fine scale. Moreover, a lagged treeline response to past warming will, via feedback mechanisms, influence climate change in the future.}, language = {en} } @article{WiesmeierMunroBartholdetal.2015, author = {Wiesmeier, Martin and Munro, Sam and Barthold, Frauke Katrin and Steffens, Markus and Schad, Peter and K{\"o}gel-Knabner, Ingrid}, title = {Carbon storage capacity of semi-arid grassland soils and sequestration potentials in northern China}, series = {Global change biology}, volume = {21}, journal = {Global change biology}, number = {10}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Hoboken}, issn = {1354-1013}, doi = {10.1111/gcb.12957}, pages = {3836 -- 3845}, year = {2015}, abstract = {Organic carbon (OC) sequestration in degraded semi-arid environments by improved soil management is assumed to contribute substantially to climate change mitigation. However, information about the soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration potential in steppe soils and their current saturation status remains unknown. In this study, we estimated the OC storage capacity of semi-arid grassland soils on the basis of remote, natural steppe fragments in northern China. Based on the maximum OC saturation of silt and clay particles <20m, OC sequestration potentials of degraded steppe soils (grazing land, arable land, eroded areas) were estimated. The analysis of natural grassland soils revealed a strong linear regression between the proportion of the fine fraction and its OC content, confirming the importance of silt and clay particles for OC stabilization in steppe soils. This relationship was similar to derived regressions in temperate and tropical soils but on a lower level, probably due to a lower C input and different clay mineralogy. In relation to the estimated OC storage capacity, degraded steppe soils showed a high OC saturation of 78-85\% despite massive SOC losses due to unsustainable land use. As a result, the potential of degraded grassland soils to sequester additional OC was generally low. This can be related to a relatively high contribution of labile SOC, which is preferentially lost in the course of soil degradation. Moreover, wind erosion leads to substantial loss of silt and clay particles and consequently results in a direct loss of the ability to stabilize additional OC. Our findings indicate that the SOC loss in semi-arid environments induced by intensive land use is largely irreversible. Observed SOC increases after improved land management mainly result in an accumulation of labile SOC prone to land use/climate changes and therefore cannot be regarded as contribution to long-term OC sequestration.}, language = {en} } @article{WischnewskiKramerKongetal.2011, author = {Wischnewski, Juliane and Kramer, Annette and Kong, Zhaochen and Mackay, Anson W. and Simpson, Gavin L. and Mischke, Steffen and Herzschuh, Ulrike}, title = {Terrestrial and aquatic responses to climate change and human impact on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the past two centuries}, series = {Global change biology}, volume = {17}, journal = {Global change biology}, number = {11}, publisher = {Wiley-Blackwell}, address = {Malden}, issn = {1354-1013}, doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02474.x}, pages = {3376 -- 3391}, year = {2011}, abstract = {Rapid population growth and economic development have led to increased anthropogenic pressures on the Tibetan Plateau, causing significant land cover changes with potentially severe ecological consequences. To assess whether or not these pressures are also affecting the remote montane-boreal lakes on the SE Tibetan Plateau, fossil pollen and diatom data from two lakes were synthesized. The interplay of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem response was explored in respect to climate variability and human activity over the past 200 years. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling and Procrustes rotation analysis were undertaken to determine whether pollen and diatom responses in each lake were similar and synchronous. Detrended canonical correspondence analysis was used to develop quantitative estimates of compositional species turnover. Despite instrumental evidence of significant climatic warming on the southeastern Plateau, the pollen and diatom records indicate very stable species composition throughout their profiles and show only very subtle responses to environmental changes over the past 200 years. The compositional species turnover (0.36-0.94 SD) is relatively low in comparison to the species reorganizations known from the periods during the mid-and early-Holocene (0.64-1.61 SD) on the SE Plateau, and also in comparison to turnover rates of sediment records from climate-sensitive regions in the circum arctic. Our results indicate that climatically induced ecological thresholds are not yet crossed, but that human activity has an increasing influence, particularly on the terrestrial ecosystem in our study area. Synergistic processes of post-Little Ice Age warming, 20th century climate warming and extensive reforestations since the 19th century have initiated a change from natural oak-pine forests to seminatural, likely less resilient pine-oak forests. Further warming and anthropogenic disturbances would possibly exceed the ecological threshold of these ecosystems and lead to severe ecological consequences.}, language = {en} } @article{WolfPhamMatthewsetal.2020, author = {Wolf, Sabina and Pham, My and Matthews, Nathanial and Bubeck, Philip}, title = {Understanding the implementation gap}, series = {Climate \& development}, volume = {13}, journal = {Climate \& development}, number = {1}, publisher = {Taylor \& Francis LTD}, address = {Abingdon}, issn = {1756-5529}, doi = {10.1080/17565529.2020.1724068}, pages = {81 -- 94}, year = {2020}, abstract = {In recent years, nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention in the field of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation as inclusive, no regret approaches. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can mitigate the impacts of climate change, build resilience and tackle environmental degradation thereby supporting the targets set by the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework. Despite these benefits, EbA is still rarely implemented in practice. To better understand the barriers to implementation, this research examines policy-makers' perceptions of EbA, using an extended version of Protection Motivation Theory as an analytical framework. Through semi-structured interviews with policy-makers at regional and provincial level in Central Vietnam, it was found that EbA is generally considered a promising response option, mainly due to its multiple ecosystem-service benefits. The demand for EbA measures was largely driven by the perceived consequences of natural hazards and climate change. Insufficient perceived response efficacy and time-lags in effectiveness for disaster risk reduction were identified as key impediments for implementation. Pilot projects and capacity building on EbA are important means to overcome these perceptual barriers. This paper contributes to bridging the knowledge-gap on political decision-making regarding EbA and can, thereby, promote its mainstreaming into policy plans.}, language = {en} } @article{ŠedovaKalkuhl2020, author = {Šedov{\´a}, Barbora and Kalkuhl, Matthias}, title = {Who are the climate migrants and where do they go?}, series = {World development}, volume = {129}, journal = {World development}, publisher = {Elsevier Science}, address = {Amsterdam}, issn = {0305-750X}, doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104848}, pages = {19}, year = {2020}, abstract = {In this paper, we move from the large strand of research that looks at evidence of climate migration to the questions: who are the climate migrants? and where do they go? These questions are crucial to design policies that mitigate welfare losses of migration choices due to climate change. We study the direct and heterogeneous associations between weather extremes and migration in rural India. We combine ERAS reanalysis data with the India Human Development Survey household panel and conduct regression analyses by applying linear probability and multinomial logit models. This enables us to establish a causal relationship between temperature and precipitation anomalies and overall migration as well as migration by destination. We show that adverse weather shocks decrease rural-rural and international migration and push people into cities in different, presumably more prosperous states. A series of positive weather shocks, however, facilitates international migration and migration to cities within the same state. Further, our results indicate that in contrast to other migrants, climate migrants are likely to be from the lower end of the skill distribution and from households strongly dependent on agricultural production. We estimate that approximately 8\% of all rural-urban moves between 2005 and 2012 can be attributed to weather. This figure might increase as a consequence of climate change. Thus, a key policy recommendation is to take steps to facilitate integration of less educated migrants into the urban labor market.}, language = {en} }