@article{ZoellerHolschneider2016, author = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Holschneider, Matthias}, title = {The Maximum Possible and the Maximum Expected Earthquake Magnitude for Production-Induced Earthquakes at the Gas Field in Groningen, The Netherlands}, series = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, volume = {106}, journal = {Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0037-1106}, doi = {10.1785/0120160220}, pages = {2917 -- 2921}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The Groningen gas field serves as a natural laboratory for production-induced earthquakes, because no earthquakes were observed before the beginning of gas production. Increasing gas production rates resulted in growing earthquake activity and eventually in the occurrence of the 2012M(w) 3.6 Huizinge earthquake. At least since this event, a detailed seismic hazard and risk assessment including estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude is considered to be necessary to decide on the future gas production. In this short note, we first apply state-of-the-art methods of mathematical statistics to derive confidence intervals for the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). Second, we calculate the maximum expected magnitude M-T in the time between 2016 and 2024 for three assumed gas-production scenarios. Using broadly accepted physical assumptions and 90\% confidence level, we suggest a value of m(max) 4.4, whereas M-T varies between 3.9 and 4.3, depending on the production scenario.}, language = {en} } @article{ZoellerHolschneider2016, author = {Z{\"o}ller, Gert and Holschneider, Matthias}, title = {The Earthquake History in a Fault Zone Tells Us Almost Nothing about m(max)}, series = {Seismological research letters}, volume = {87}, journal = {Seismological research letters}, publisher = {Seismological Society of America}, address = {Albany}, issn = {0895-0695}, doi = {10.1785/0220150176}, pages = {132 -- 137}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In the present study, we summarize and evaluate the endeavors from recent years to estimate the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) from observed data. In particular, we use basic and physically motivated assumptions to identify best cases and worst cases in terms of lowest and highest degree of uncertainty of m(max). In a general framework, we demonstrate that earthquake data and earthquake proxy data recorded in a fault zone provide almost no information about m(max) unless reliable and homogeneous data of a long time interval, including several earthquakes with magnitude close to m(max), are available. Even if detailed earthquake information from some centuries including historic and paleoearthquakes are given, only very few, namely the largest events, will contribute at all to the estimation of m(max), and this results in unacceptably high uncertainties. As a consequence, estimators of m(max) in a fault zone, which are based solely on earthquake-related information from this region, have to be dismissed.}, language = {en} } @article{WichitsaNguanLaeuterLiero2016, author = {Wichitsa-Nguan, Korakot and L{\"a}uter, Henning and Liero, Hannelore}, title = {Estimability in Cox models}, series = {Statistical Papers}, volume = {57}, journal = {Statistical Papers}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {New York}, issn = {0932-5026}, doi = {10.1007/s00362-016-0755-x}, pages = {1121 -- 1140}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Our procedure of estimating is the maximum partial likelihood estimate (MPLE) which is the appropriate estimate in the Cox model with a general censoring distribution, covariates and an unknown baseline hazard rate . We find conditions for estimability and asymptotic estimability. The asymptotic variance matrix of the MPLE is represented and properties are discussed.}, language = {en} } @phdthesis{Wichitsanguan2016, author = {Wichitsa-nguan, Korakot}, title = {Modifications and extensions of the logistic regression and Cox model}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-90033}, school = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam}, pages = {x, 131}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In many statistical applications, the aim is to model the relationship between covariates and some outcomes. A choice of the appropriate model depends on the outcome and the research objectives, such as linear models for continuous outcomes, logistic models for binary outcomes and the Cox model for time-to-event data. In epidemiological, medical, biological, societal and economic studies, the logistic regression is widely used to describe the relationship between a response variable as binary outcome and explanatory variables as a set of covariates. However, epidemiologic cohort studies are quite expensive regarding data management since following up a large number of individuals takes long time. Therefore, the case-cohort design is applied to reduce cost and time for data collection. The case-cohort sampling collects a small random sample from the entire cohort, which is called subcohort. The advantage of this design is that the covariate and follow-up data are recorded only on the subcohort and all cases (all members of the cohort who develop the event of interest during the follow-up process). In this thesis, we investigate the estimation in the logistic model for case-cohort design. First, a model with a binary response and a binary covariate is considered. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is described and its asymptotic properties are established. An estimator for the asymptotic variance of the estimator based on the maximum likelihood approach is proposed; this estimator differs slightly from the estimator introduced by Prentice (1986). Simulation results for several proportions of the subcohort show that the proposed estimator gives lower empirical bias and empirical variance than Prentice's estimator. Then the MLE in the logistic regression with discrete covariate under case-cohort design is studied. Here the approach of the binary covariate model is extended. Proving asymptotic normality of estimators, standard errors for the estimators can be derived. The simulation study demonstrates the estimation procedure of the logistic regression model with a one-dimensional discrete covariate. Simulation results for several proportions of the subcohort and different choices of the underlying parameters indicate that the estimator developed here performs reasonably well. Moreover, the comparison between theoretical values and simulation results of the asymptotic variance of estimator is presented. Clearly, the logistic regression is sufficient for the binary outcome refers to be available for all subjects and for a fixed time interval. Nevertheless, in practice, the observations in clinical trials are frequently collected for different time periods and subjects may drop out or relapse from other causes during follow-up. Hence, the logistic regression is not appropriate for incomplete follow-up data; for example, an individual drops out of the study before the end of data collection or an individual has not occurred the event of interest for the duration of the study. These observations are called censored observations. The survival analysis is necessary to solve these problems. Moreover, the time to the occurence of the event of interest is taken into account. The Cox model has been widely used in survival analysis, which can effectively handle the censored data. Cox (1972) proposed the model which is focused on the hazard function. The Cox model is assumed to be λ(t|x) = λ0(t) exp(β^Tx) where λ0(t) is an unspecified baseline hazard at time t and X is the vector of covariates, β is a p-dimensional vector of coefficient. In this thesis, the Cox model is considered under the view point of experimental design. The estimability of the parameter β0 in the Cox model, where β0 denotes the true value of β, and the choice of optimal covariates are investigated. We give new representations of the observed information matrix In(β) and extend results for the Cox model of Andersen and Gill (1982). In this way conditions for the estimability of β0 are formulated. Under some regularity conditions, ∑ is the inverse of the asymptotic variance matrix of the MPLE of β0 in the Cox model and then some properties of the asymptotic variance matrix of the MPLE are highlighted. Based on the results of asymptotic estimability, the calculation of local optimal covariates is considered and shown in examples. In a sensitivity analysis, the efficiency of given covariates is calculated. For neighborhoods of the exponential models, the efficiencies have then been found. It is appeared that for fixed parameters β0, the efficiencies do not change very much for different baseline hazard functions. Some proposals for applicable optimal covariates and a calculation procedure for finding optimal covariates are discussed. Furthermore, the extension of the Cox model where time-dependent coefficient are allowed, is investigated. In this situation, the maximum local partial likelihood estimator for estimating the coefficient function β(·) is described. Based on this estimator, we formulate a new test procedure for testing, whether a one-dimensional coefficient function β(·) has a prespecified parametric form, say β(·; ϑ). The score function derived from the local constant partial likelihood function at d distinct grid points is considered. It is shown that the distribution of the properly standardized quadratic form of this d-dimensional vector under the null hypothesis tends to a Chi-squared distribution. Moreover, the limit statement remains true when replacing the unknown ϑ0 by the MPLE in the hypothetical model and an asymptotic α-test is given by the quantiles or p-values of the limiting Chi-squared distribution. Finally, we propose a bootstrap version of this test. The bootstrap test is only defined for the special case of testing whether the coefficient function is constant. A simulation study illustrates the behavior of the bootstrap test under the null hypothesis and a special alternative. It gives quite good results for the chosen underlying model. References P. K. Andersen and R. D. Gill. Cox's regression model for counting processes: a large samplestudy. Ann. Statist., 10(4):1100{1120, 1982. D. R. Cox. Regression models and life-tables. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B, 34:187{220, 1972. R. L. Prentice. A case-cohort design for epidemiologic cohort studies and disease prevention trials. Biometrika, 73(1):1{11, 1986.}, language = {en} } @unpublished{VasilievTarkhanov2016, author = {Vasiliev, Serguei and Tarkhanov, Nikolai Nikolaevich}, title = {Construction of series of perfect lattices by layer superposition}, volume = {5}, number = {11}, publisher = {Universit{\"a}tsverlag Potsdam}, address = {Potsdam}, issn = {2193-6943}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-100591}, pages = {11}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We construct a new series of perfect lattices in n dimensions by the layer superposition method of Delaunay-Barnes.}, language = {en} } @article{TinpunKoppitz2016, author = {Tinpun, Kittisak and Koppitz, J{\"o}rg}, title = {Generating sets of infinite full transformation semigroups with restricted range}, series = {Acta scientiarum mathematicarum}, volume = {82}, journal = {Acta scientiarum mathematicarum}, publisher = {Institutum Bolyaianum Universitatis Szegediensis}, address = {Szeged}, issn = {0001-6969}, doi = {10.14232/actasm-015-502-4}, pages = {55 -- 63}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In the present paper, we consider minimal generating sets of infinite full transformation semigroups with restricted range modulo specific subsets. In particular, we determine relative ranks.}, language = {en} } @article{Tarkhanov2016, author = {Tarkhanov, Nikolai Nikolaevich}, title = {Deformation quantization and boundary value problems}, series = {International journal of geometric methods in modern physics : differential geometery, algebraic geometery, global analysis \& topology}, volume = {13}, journal = {International journal of geometric methods in modern physics : differential geometery, algebraic geometery, global analysis \& topology}, publisher = {World Scientific}, address = {Singapore}, issn = {0219-8878}, doi = {10.1142/S0219887816500079}, pages = {176 -- 195}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We describe a natural construction of deformation quantization on a compact symplectic manifold with boundary. On the algebra of quantum observables a trace functional is defined which as usual annihilates the commutators. This gives rise to an index as the trace of the unity element. We formulate the index theorem as a conjecture and examine it by the classical harmonic oscillator.}, language = {en} } @article{StolleMichaelisRauberg2016, author = {Stolle, Claudia and Michaelis, Ingo and Rauberg, Jan}, title = {The role of high-resolution geomagnetic field models for investigating ionospheric currents at low Earth orbit satellites}, series = {Earth, planets and space}, volume = {68}, journal = {Earth, planets and space}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Heidelberg}, issn = {1880-5981}, doi = {10.1186/s40623-016-0494-1}, pages = {10}, year = {2016}, abstract = {Low Earth orbiting geomagnetic satellite missions, such as the Swarm satellite mission, are the only means to monitor and investigate ionospheric currents on a global scale and to make in situ measurements of F region currents. High-precision geomagnetic satellite missions are also able to detect ionospheric currents during quiet-time geomagnetic conditions that only have few nanotesla amplitudes in the magnetic field. An efficient method to isolate the ionospheric signals from satellite magnetic field measurements has been the use of residuals between the observations and predictions from empirical geomagnetic models for other geomagnetic sources, such as the core and lithospheric field or signals from the quiet-time magnetospheric currents. This study aims at highlighting the importance of high-resolution magnetic field models that are able to predict the lithospheric field and that consider the quiet-time magnetosphere for reliably isolating signatures from ionospheric currents during geomagnetically quiet times. The effects on the detection of ionospheric currents arising from neglecting the lithospheric and magnetospheric sources are discussed on the example of four Swarm orbits during very quiet times. The respective orbits show a broad range of typical scenarios, such as strong and weak ionospheric signal (during day- and nighttime, respectively) superimposed over strong and weak lithospheric signals. If predictions from the lithosphere or magnetosphere are not properly considered, the amplitude of the ionospheric currents, such as the midlatitude Sq currents or the equatorial electrojet (EEJ), is modulated by 10-15 \% in the examples shown. An analysis from several orbits above the African sector, where the lithospheric field is significant, showed that the peak value of the signatures of the EEJ is in error by 5 \% in average when lithospheric contributions are not considered, which is in the range of uncertainties of present empirical models of the EEJ.}, language = {en} } @article{SinclairBussideVilliersetal.2016, author = {Sinclair, Nathalie and Bussi, Maria G. Bartolini and de Villiers, Michael and Jones, Keith and Kortenkamp, Ulrich and Leung, Allen and Owens, Kay}, title = {Recent research on geometry education: an ICME-13 survey team report}, series = {ZDM : The International Journal on Mathematics Education}, volume = {48}, journal = {ZDM : The International Journal on Mathematics Education}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Heidelberg}, issn = {1863-9690}, doi = {10.1007/s11858-016-0796-6}, pages = {691 -- 719}, year = {2016}, abstract = {This survey on the theme of Geometry Education (including new technologies) focuses chiefly on the time span since 2008. Based on our review of the research literature published during this time span (in refereed journal articles, conference proceedings and edited books), we have jointly identified seven major threads of contributions that span from the early years of learning (pre-school and primary school) through to post-compulsory education and to the issue of mathematics teacher education for geometry. These threads are as follows: developments and trends in the use of theories; advances in the understanding of visuo spatial reasoning; the use and role of diagrams and gestures; advances in the understanding of the role of digital technologies; advances in the understanding of the teaching and learning of definitions; advances in the understanding of the teaching and learning of the proving process; and, moving beyond traditional Euclidean approaches. Within each theme, we identify relevant research and also offer commentary on future directions.}, language = {en} } @article{ShtrakovKoppitz2016, author = {Shtrakov, Slavcho and Koppitz, J{\"o}rg}, title = {Stable varieties of semigroups and groupoids}, series = {Algebra universalis}, volume = {75}, journal = {Algebra universalis}, publisher = {Springer}, address = {Basel}, issn = {0002-5240}, doi = {10.1007/s00012-015-0359-7}, pages = {85 -- 106}, year = {2016}, abstract = {The paper deals with Sigma-composition and Sigma-essential composition of terms which lead to stable and s-stable varieties of algebras. A full description of all stable varieties of semigroups, commutative and idempotent groupoids is obtained. We use an abstract reduction system which simplifies the presentations of terms of type tau - (2) to study the variety of idempotent groupoids and s-stable varieties of groupoids. S-stable varieties are a variation of stable varieties, used to highlight replacement of subterms of a term in a deductive system instead of the usual replacement of variables by terms.}, language = {en} }