@phdthesis{SarnesNitu2018,
  author    = {Sarnes-Nitu, Juliane},
  title     = {Mit der Schuldenbremse zu nachhaltigen Staatsfinanzen?},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-413804},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {294},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {The core question of this paper is: Does the debt brake secure fiscal sustainability in Germany? To answer this question, we will first examine the effects of the introduction of the debt brake on the German federal states in the period 2010-16. For this purpose, the observed consolidation performance and the consolidation incentive or pressure experienced by the federal states were evaluated with the help of a scorecard specifically developed for this purpose. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze how the scorecard factors affect the consolidation performance of the federal states. It found that nearly 90\% of the variation was explained by the independent variables budgetary position, debt burden, revenue growth and pension burden. Thus the debt brake likely played a subordinate role in the 2009-2016 consolidation episode. Subsequently, the data collected in 65 expert interviews was used to analyze the limits of the new fiscal rule, and to determine which potential risks could hinder or prevent the debt brake in the future: municipal debt, FEUs, contingent liabilities in the form of guarantees for financial institutions and pension obligations. The frequently expressed criticism that the debt brake impedes economic growth and public investments is also reviewed and rejected. Finally, we discuss potential future developments regarding the debt brake and the German public administration as well as future consolidation efforts of the L{\"a}nder.},
  language  = {de}
}