@article{MurawskiVorogushynBuergeretal.2018,
  author    = {Murawski, Aline and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Gerlitz, Lars and Merz, Bruno},
  title     = {Do changing weather types explain observed climatic trends in the rhine basin?},
  series = {Journal of geophysical of geophysical research-atmosheres},
  volume    = {123},
  journal   = {Journal of geophysical of geophysical research-atmosheres},
  number    = {3},
  publisher = {American Geophysical Union},
  address   = {Washington},
  issn      = {2169-897X},
  doi       = {10.1002/2017JD026654},
  pages     = {1562 -- 1584},
  year      = {2018},
  abstract  = {For attributing hydrological changes to anthropogenic climate change, catchment models are driven by climate model output. A widespread approach to bridge the spatial gap between global climate and hydrological catchment models is to use a weather generator conditioned on weather patterns (WPs). This approach assumes that changes in local climate are characterized by between-type changes of patterns. In this study we test this assumption by analyzing a previously developed WP classification for the Rhine basin, which is based on dynamic and thermodynamic variables. We quantify changes in pattern characteristics and associated climatic properties. The amount of between- and within-type changes is investigated by comparing observed trends to trends resulting solely from WP occurrence. To overcome uncertainties in trend detection resulting from the selected time period, all possible periods in 1901-2010 with a minimum length of 31 years are analyzed. Increasing frequency is found for some patterns associated with high precipitation, although the trend sign highly depends on the considered period. Trends and interannual variations of WP frequencies are related to the long-term variability of large-scale circulation modes. Long-term WP internal warming is evident for summer patterns and enhanced warming for spring/autumn patterns since the 1970s. Observed trends in temperature and partly in precipitation are mainly associated with frequency changes of specific WPs, but some amount of within-type changes remains. The classification can be used for downscaling of past changes considering this limitation, but the inclusion of thermodynamic variables into the classification impedes the downscaling of future climate projections.},
  language  = {en}
}
@article{MtilatilaBronstertBuergeretal.2020,
  author    = {Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe and Bronstert, Axel and B{\"u}rger, Gerd and Vormoor, Klaus Josef},
  title     = {Meteorological and hydrological drought assessment in Lake Malawi and Shire River basins (1970-2013)},
  series = {Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques},
  volume    = {65},
  journal   = {Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques},
  number    = {16},
  publisher = {Routledge, Taylor \& Francis Group},
  address   = {Abingdon},
  issn      = {0262-6667},
  doi       = {10.1080/02626667.2020.1837384},
  pages     = {2750 -- 2764},
  year      = {2020},
  abstract  = {The study assesses the variability and trends of both meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1970 to 2013 in Lake Malawi and Shire River basins using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evaporation index (SPEI) for meteorological droughts and the lake level change index (LLCI) for hydrological droughts. Trends and slopes in droughts and drought drivers are estimated using Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope, respectively. Results suggest that meteorological droughts are increasing due to a decrease in precipitation which is exacerbated by an increase in temperature (potential evapotranspiration). The hydrological system of Lake Malawi seems to have a >24-month memory towards meteorological conditions, since the 36-month SPEI can predict hydrological droughts 10 months in advance. The study has found the critical lake level that would trigger hydrological drought to be 474.1 m a.s.l. The increase in drought is a concern as this will have serious impacts on water resources and hydropower supply in Malawi.},
  language  = {en}
}