@article{SmirnovBerrendorfShpritsetal.2020, author = {Smirnov, Artem and Berrendorf, Max and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Kronberg, Elena A. and Allison, Hayley J. and Aseev, Nikita and Zhelavskaya, Irina and Morley, Steven K. and Reeves, Geoffrey D. and Carver, Matthew R. and Effenberger, Frederic}, title = {Medium energy electron flux in earth's outer radiation belt (MERLIN)}, series = {Space weather : the international journal of research and applications}, volume = {18}, journal = {Space weather : the international journal of research and applications}, number = {11}, publisher = {American geophysical union, AGU}, address = {Washington}, issn = {1542-7390}, doi = {10.1029/2020SW002532}, pages = {20}, year = {2020}, abstract = {The radiation belts of the Earth, filled with energetic electrons, comprise complex and dynamic systems that pose a significant threat to satellite operation. While various models of electron flux both for low and relativistic energies have been developed, the behavior of medium energy (120-600 keV) electrons, especially in the MEO region, remains poorly quantified. At these energies, electrons are driven by both convective and diffusive transport, and their prediction usually requires sophisticated 4D modeling codes. In this paper, we present an alternative approach using the Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) machine learning algorithm. The Medium Energy electRon fLux In Earth's outer radiatioN belt (MERLIN) model takes as input the satellite position, a combination of geomagnetic indices and solar wind parameters including the time history of velocity, and does not use persistence. MERLIN is trained on >15 years of the GPS electron flux data and tested on more than 1.5 years of measurements. Tenfold cross validation yields that the model predicts the MEO radiation environment well, both in terms of dynamics and amplitudes o f flux. Evaluation on the test set shows high correlation between the predicted and observed electron flux (0.8) and low values of absolute error. The MERLIN model can have wide space weather applications, providing information for the scientific community in the form of radiation belts reconstructions, as well as industry for satellite mission design, nowcast of the MEO environment, and surface charging analysis.}, language = {en} } @article{RipollLoridanCunninghametal.2016, author = {Ripoll, Jean-Fran{\c{c}}ois and Loridan, Vivien and Cunningham, G. S. and Reeves, Geoffrey D. and Shprits, Yuri Y.}, title = {On the time needed to reach an equilibrium structure of the radiation belts}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {121}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1002/2015JA022207}, pages = {7684 -- 7698}, year = {2016}, abstract = {In this study, we complement the notion of equilibrium states of the radiation belts with a discussion on the dynamics and time needed to reach equilibrium. We solve for the equilibrium states obtained using 1-D radial diffusion with recently developed hiss and chorus lifetimes at constant values of Kp = 1, 3, and 6. We find that the equilibrium states at moderately low Kp, when plotted versus L shell (L) and energy (E), display the same interesting S shape for the inner edge of the outer belt as recently observed by the Van Allen Probes. The S shape is also produced as the radiation belts dynamically evolve toward the equilibrium state when initialized to simulate the buildup after a massive dropout or to simulate loss due to outward diffusion from a saturated state. Physically, this shape, intimately linked with the slot structure, is due to the dependence of electron loss rate (originating from wave-particle interactions) on both energy and L shell. Equilibrium electron flux profiles are governed by the Biot number (tau(Diffusion)/tau(loss)), with large Biot number corresponding to low fluxes and low Biot number to large fluxes. The time it takes for the flux at a specific (L, E) to reach the value associated with the equilibrium state, starting from these different initial states, is governed by the initial state of the belts, the property of the dynamics (diffusion coefficients), and the size of the domain of computation. Its structure shows a rather complex scissor form in the (L, E) plane. The equilibrium value (phase space density or flux) is practically reachable only for selected regions in (L, E) and geomagnetic activity. Convergence to equilibrium requires hundreds of days in the inner belt for E>300 keV and moderate Kp (<= 3). It takes less time to reach equilibrium during disturbed geomagnetic conditions (Kp = 3), when the system evolves faster. Restricting our interest to the slot region, below L = 4, we find that only small regions in (L, E) space can reach the equilibrium value: E similar to [200, 300] keV for L= [3.7, 4] at Kp= 1, E similar to[0.6, 1] MeV for L = [3, 4] at Kp = 3, and E similar to 300 keV for L = [3.5, 4] at Kp = 6 assuming no new incoming electrons.}, language = {en} } @article{BoydSpenceHuangetal.2016, author = {Boyd, A. J. and Spence, Harlan E. and Huang, Chia-Lin and Reeves, Geoffrey D. and Baker, Daniel N. and Turner, D. L. and Claudepierre, Seth G. and Fennell, Joseph F. and Blake, J. Bernard and Shprits, Yuri Y.}, title = {Statistical properties of the radiation belt seed population}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {121}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1002/2016JA022652}, pages = {7636 -- 7646}, year = {2016}, abstract = {We present a statistical analysis of phase space density data from the first 26 months of the Van Allen Probes mission. In particular, we investigate the relationship between the tens and hundreds of keV seed electrons and >1 MeV core radiation belt electron population. Using a cross-correlation analysis, we find that the seed and core populations are well correlated with a coefficient of approximate to 0.73 with a time lag of 10-15 h. We present evidence of a seed population threshold that is necessary for subsequent acceleration. The depth of penetration of the seed population determines the inner boundary of the acceleration process. However, we show that an enhanced seed population alone is not enough to produce acceleration in the higher energies, implying that the seed population of hundreds of keV electrons is only one of several conditions required for MeV electron radiation belt acceleration.}, language = {en} } @article{AseevShpritsWangetal.2019, author = {Aseev, Nikita and Shprits, Yuri Y. and Wang, Dedong and Wygant, John and Drozdov, Alexander and Kellerman, Adam C. and Reeves, Geoffrey D.}, title = {Transport and loss of ring current electrons inside geosynchronous orbit during the 17 March 2013 storm}, series = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, volume = {124}, journal = {Journal of geophysical research : Space physics}, number = {2}, publisher = {American Geophysical Union}, address = {Washington}, issn = {2169-9380}, doi = {10.1029/2018JA026031}, pages = {915 -- 933}, year = {2019}, abstract = {Ring current electrons (1-100 keV) have received significant attention in recent decades, but many questions regarding their major transport and loss mechanisms remain open. In this study, we use the four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code to model the enhancement of phase space density that occurred during the 17 March 2013 storm. Our model includes global convection, radial diffusion, and scattering into the Earth's atmosphere driven by whistler-mode hiss and chorus waves. We study the sensitivity of the model to the boundary conditions, global electric field, the electric field associated with subauroral polarization streams, electron loss rates, and radial diffusion coefficients. The results of the code are almost insensitive to the model parameters above 4.5 RERE, which indicates that the general dynamics of the electrons between 4.5 RE and the geostationary orbit can be explained by global convection. We found that the major discrepancies between the model and data can stem from the inaccurate electric field model and uncertainties in lifetimes. We show that additional mechanisms that are responsible for radial transport are required to explain the dynamics of ≥40-keV electrons, and the inclusion of the radial diffusion rates that are typically assumed in radiation belt studies leads to a better agreement with the data. The overall effect of subauroral polarization streams on the electron phase space density profiles seems to be smaller than the uncertainties in other input parameters. This study is an initial step toward understanding the dynamics of these particles inside the geostationary orbit.}, language = {en} }