@misc{RisbeyLewandowskyCowtanetal.2018, author = {Risbey, James S. and Lewandowsky, Stephan and Cowtan, Kevin and Oreskes, Naomi and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Jokim{\"a}ki, Ari and Foster, Grant}, title = {A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, volume = {13}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1023}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-46804}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468041}, pages = {26}, year = {2018}, abstract = {This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing.}, language = {en} } @misc{HortonKhanCahilletal.2020, author = {Horton, Benjamin P. and Khan, Nicole S. and Cahill, Niamh and Lee, Janice S. H. and Shaw, Timothy A. and Garner, Andra J. and Kemp, Andrew C. and Engelhart, Simon E. and Rahmstorf, Stefan}, title = {Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {1}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51678}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516788}, pages = {10}, year = {2020}, abstract = {Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66\% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42\% (original survey) and 45\% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17\%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.}, language = {en} } @misc{CaesarRahmstorfFeulner2020, author = {Caesar, Levke and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Feulner, Georg}, title = {On the relationship between Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown and global surface warming}, series = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Zweitver{\"o}ffentlichungen der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {2}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-51238}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-512382}, pages = {9}, year = {2020}, abstract = {According to established understanding, deep-water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean keeps the deep ocean cold, counter-acting the downward mixing of heat from the warmer surface waters in the bulk of the world ocean. Therefore, periods of strong Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are expected to coincide with cooling of the deep ocean and warming of the surface waters. It has recently been proposed that this relation may have reversed due to global warming, and that during the past decades a strong AMOC coincides with warming of the deep ocean and relative cooling of the surface, by transporting increasingly warmer waters downward. Here we present multiple lines of evidence, including a statistical evaluation of the observed global mean temperature, ocean heat content, and different AMOC proxies, that lead to the opposite conclusion: even during the current ongoing global temperature rise a strong AMOC warms the surface. The observed weakening of the AMOC has therefore delayed global surface warming rather than enhancing it. Social Media Abstract: The overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean has weakened in response to global warming, as predicted by climate models. Since it plays an important role in transporting heat, nutrients and carbon, a slowdown will affect global climate processes and the global mean temperature. Scientists have questioned whether this slowdown has worked to cool or warm global surface temperatures. This study analyses the overturning strength and global mean temperature evolution of the past decades and shows that a slowdown acts to reduce the global mean temperature. This is because a slower overturning means less water sinks into the deep ocean in the subpolar North Atlantic. As the surface waters are cold there, the sinking normally cools the deep ocean and thereby indirectly warms the surface, thus less sinking implies less surface warming and has a cooling effect. For the foreseeable future, this means that the slowing of the overturning will likely continue to slightly reduce the effect of the general warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.}, language = {en} } @misc{ReigberWassermannScherbaumetal.2002, author = {Reigber, Christoph and Wassermann, Joachim and Scherbaum, Frank and Dresen, Georg and Zang, Arno and Altenberger, Uwe and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Klein, Armin and Oberh{\"a}nsli, Roland and Herzig, Reinhard}, title = {Portal = Vulkane, Erdbeben, Klima: Der Planet Erde birgt viele Geheimnisse}, number = {01-02/2002}, organization = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam, Referat f{\"u}r Presse- und {\"O}ffentlichkeitsarbeit}, issn = {1618-6893}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-43954}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-439544}, pages = {39}, year = {2002}, abstract = {Aus dem Inhalt: - Vulkane, Erdbeben, Klima: Der Planet Erde birgt viele Geheimnisse - Eine Entdeckungsreise durch die Uni Potsdam auf CD-ROM - Gewitter im Gehirn - Herr der Pflanzen: Wolfgang Pifrement}, language = {de} } @misc{MannRahmstorfKornhuberetal.2018, author = {Mann, Michael E. and Rahmstorf, Stefan and Kornhuber, Kai and Steinman, Byron A. and Miller, Sonya K. and Petri, Stefan and Coumou, Dim}, title = {Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events}, series = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, journal = {Postprints der Universit{\"a}t Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe}, number = {994}, issn = {1866-8372}, doi = {10.25932/publishup-44641}, url = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446416}, pages = {12}, year = {2018}, abstract = {Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50\% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events.}, language = {en} }