@phdthesis{Kolk2019,
  author    = {Kolk, Jens},
  title     = {The long-term legacy of historical land cover changes},
  doi       = {10.25932/publishup-43939},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-439398},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  pages     = {196},
  year      = {2019},
  abstract  = {Over the last years there is an increasing awareness that historical land cover changes and associated land use legacies may be important drivers for present-day species richness and biodiversity due to time-delayed extinctions or colonizations in response to historical environmental changes. Historically altered habitat patches may therefore exhibit an extinction debt or colonization credit and can be expected to lose or gain species in the future. However, extinction debts and colonization credits are difficult to detect and their actual magnitudes or payments have rarely been quantified because species richness patterns and dynamics are also shaped by recent environmental conditions and recent environmental changes. In this thesis we aimed to determine patterns of herb-layer species richness and recent species richness dynamics of forest herb layer plants and link those patterns and dynamics to historical land cover changes and associated land use legacies. The study was conducted in the Prignitz, NE-Germany, where the forest distribution remained stable for the last ca. 100 years but where a) the deciduous forest area had declined by more than 90 per cent (leaving only remnants of "ancient forests"), b) small new forests had been established on former agricultural land ("post-agricultural forests"). Here, we analyzed the relative importance of land use history and associated historical land cover changes for herb layer species richness compared to recent environmental factors and determined magnitudes of extinction debt and colonization credit and their payment in ancient and post-agricultural forests, respectively. We showed that present-day species richness patterns were still shaped by historical land cover changes that ranged back to more than a century. Although recent environmental conditions were largely comparable we found significantly more forest specialists, species with short-distance dispersal capabilities and clonals in ancient forests than in post-agricultural forests. Those species richness differences were largely contingent to a colonization credit in post-agricultural forests that ranged up to 9 species (average 4.7), while the extinction debt in ancient forests had almost completely been paid. Environmental legacies from historical agricultural land use played a minor role for species richness differences. Instead, patch connectivity was most important. Species richness in ancient forests was still dependent on historical connectivity, indicating a last glimpse of an extinction debt, and the colonization credit was highest in isolated post-agricultural forests. In post-agricultural forests that were better connected or directly adjacent to ancient forest patches the colonization credit was way smaller and we were able to verify a gradual payment of the colonization credit from 2.7 species to 1.5 species over the last six decades.},
  language  = {en}
}
@phdthesis{Esther2010,
  author    = {Esther, Alexandra},
  title     = {Investigating mechanisms maintaining plant species diversity in fire prone Mediterranean-type vegetation using spatially-explicit simulation models},
  url       = {http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-44632},
  school      = {Universit{\"a}t Potsdam},
  year      = {2010},
  abstract  = {Fire prone Mediterranean-type vegetation systems like those in the Mediterranean Basin and South-Western Australia are global hot spots for plant species diversity. To ensure management programs act to maintain these highly diverse plant communities, it is necessary to get a profound understanding of the crucial mechanisms of coexistence. In the current literature several mechanisms are discussed. The objective of my thesis is to systematically explore the importance of potential mechanisms for maintaining multi-species, fire prone vegetation by modelling. The model I developed is spatially-explicit, stochastic, rule- and individual-based. It is parameterised on data of population dynamics collected over 18 years in the Mediterranean-type shrublands of Eneabba, Western Australia. From 156 woody species of the area seven plant traits have been identified to be relevant for this study: regeneration mode, annual maximum seed production, seed size, maximum crown diameter, drought tolerance, dispersal mode and seed bank type. Trait sets are used for the definition of plant functional types (PFTs). The PFT dynamics are simulated annual by iterating life history processes. In the first part of my thesis I investigate the importance of trade-offs for the maintenance of high diversity in multi-species systems with 288 virtual PFTs. Simulation results show that the trade-off concept can be helpful to identify non-viable combinations of plant traits. However, the Shannon Diversity Index of modelled communities can be high despite of the presence of 'supertypes'. I conclude, that trade-offs between two traits are less important to explain multi-species coexistence and high diversity than it is predicted by more conceptual models. Several studies show, that seed immigration from the regional seed pool is essential for maintaining local species diversity. However, systematical studies on the seed rain composition to multi-species communities are missing. The results of the simulation experiments, as presented in part two of this thesis, show clearly, that without seed immigration the local species community found in Eneabba drifts towards a state with few coexisting PFTs. With increasing immigration rates the number of simulated coexisting PFTs and Shannon diversity quickly approaches values as also observed in the field. Including the regional seed input in the model is suited to explain more aggregated measures of the local plant community structure such as species richness and diversity. Hence, the seed rain composition should be implemented in future studies. In the third part of my thesis I test the sensitivity of Eneabba PFTs to four different climate change scenarios, considering their impact on both local and regional processes. The results show that climate change clearly has the potential to alter the number of dispersed seeds for most of the Eneabba PFTs and therefore the source of the 'immigrants' at the community level. A classification tree analysis shows that, in general, the response to climate change was PFT-specific. In the Eneabba sand plains sensitivity of a PFT to climate change depends on its specific trait combination and on the scenario of environmental change i.e. development of the amount of rainfall and the fire frequency. This result emphasizes that PFT-specific responses and regional process seed immigration should not be ignored in studies dealing with the impact of climate change on future species distribution. The results of the three chapters are finally analysed in a general discussion. The model is discussed and improvements and suggestions are made for future research. My work leads to the following conclusions: i) It is necessary to support modelling with empirical work to explain coexistence in species-rich plant communities. ii) The chosen modelling approach allows considering the complexity of coexistence and improves the understanding of coexistence mechanisms. iii) Field research based assumptions in terms of environmental conditions and plant life histories can relativise the importance of more hypothetic coexistence theories in species-rich systems. In consequence, trade-offs can play a lower role than predicted by conceptual models. iv) Seed immigration is a key process for local coexistence. Its alteration because of climate change should be considered for prognosis of coexistence. Field studies should be carried out to get data on seed rain composition.},
  language  = {en}
}